Week 3 in Review

Rewind
It was a tough week to be a top ranked team playing a conference rival as USC lost to an unranked Washington team on the road, while the others escaped with wins on their home fields, but had fights on their hands for 4 quarters. All three top teams were at least 20 point favorites by kickoff and none covered that spread, with Florida holding off Tennessee in the final period and Texas being outgained vs. Texas Tech but still managing to exact revenge on the Red Raiders. The biggest stories east and south of Seattle were the Heisman Trophy finalists from last year, Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, not playing up to expectations in the first tests of the season for both of them. With Sam Bradford going down to injury in the first week most people around the country figured Tebow and McCoy would wage a two man battle for the right to collect the hardware in December. But after lackluster performances last week the field is wide open and neither of the quarterbacks are on my early Heisman list. Let’s take a look at that and the other headlines from a week 3 that saw conference games heat up while others were soaked by rain, including 3 games delayed by hours because of lightning (in Auburn, Clemson and Las Cruces, NM).


Strike a Pose…Early Season Heisman Contenders

When an unranked team beats two ranked foes to start the season and their QB is the big reason why, he is immediately vaulted into talk of Heisman contention. Jacory Harris has led Miami to big wins and a top 10 ranking and now leads my list of the best to start the season. He played flawless in a win vs. GT and although he threw 2 ints at FSU, led the comeback to beat the Seminoles in week 1, throwing 3 TDs including two in the 4th qtr. He seems ready for tests at Virginia Tech and Oklahoma. We’ll wait and see, but Miami is back in the top 10 and has its swagger back, which for Randy Shannon is well deserved good news.

Cal is also a top 10 team that is led by one player in particular, RB Jahvid Best. His 5 TDs iced the game vs. Minnesota last week and his big game week 1 vs. Maryland is also a highlight. The best RB in the country at the moment, Best will face his toughest challenges in the weeks to come. If he is still on this list after games against Oregon and USC, I would be very impressed not only with him but his teammates. Coach Jeff Tedford has to stop subbing him in clutch situations, as Cal almost blew the game last week when Best was not on the field on critical downs (Tedford even suggested that his team does not lose anything when backup RB Vereen is on the field, showing just how egotistical he can be ). Tedford has hurt their chances in big games before, the next two weeks will tell a lot.

Staying in the Pac 10, Washington has turned its program around in 3 weeks, from going 0-12 last year to ranked #24 after their stunning upset of USC. Although most people will give credit to new coach Steve Sarkisian, he was lucky to inherit a program from Tyrone Willingham (who needs to get some credit) with a QB as talented as Jake Locker. No question the top QB in the Pac 10 through 3 games, Locker has led his team to a near upset of LSU in week 1, outgaining the Tigers, then winning back to back games, including pulling out amazing plays against USC almost single handedly. It will be tough to continue his great start but for now Locker and the Huskies are on top of the college football world. His and the Huskies first road test is this weekend.

This is a short list to start the season, with players coming and going throughout the up and down world of college football. Check back later for updates to the Heisman list and don’t be surprised if more familiar names like Tebow and McCoy appear in the not too distant future.

Gators Missing Some Bite...
Florida 23 - Tennessee 13

That sigh of relief that was heard around the world on Saturday at 6:45 ET came from Gainesville. Lane Kiffin said he was not happy with keeping the game close but nobody believed him, as he was as relieved as any coach ever to be playing for something at the end of that game. Although he was not singing Rocky Top as he promised, Florida can’t feel happy about their win in the Swamp on Saturday. Yes they quieted the Vols for another year, but their offense looked out of sync and their defense was not the dominant unit we have come to expect. Monte Kiffin can take credit for holding down Tebow and company but in a game Florida had to be prepared for they came out a little flat and never broke open the game as expected. This game will go down as a Gator win, but Tennessee has to feel good about the final score and actually playing with the more talented team on both sides of the ball.

Longhorns Lucky to Survive
Texas 34 - Texas Tech 24

Texas was outgained and had fewer first downs than Texas Tech yet still managed a comfortable 10 point win. An early punt return by Jordan Shipley gave the Longhorns a lead they would not relinquish, but Colt McCoy played underwhelming, throwing interceptions into coverage and being outplayed by Tech QB Taylor Potts, who threw for 420 yards. The Longhorns must feel fortunate to have escaped with victory and McCoy should regroup after a subpar performance, maybe concentrating more on football and less on hunting vermin out of the back of his pickup truck, which he famously said was his favorite pastime in his hometown.

Hopeless in Seattle No Longer
Washington 16 - USC 13

Most people would have been called crazy if they said UW had a chance to start 2-1 with a win over USC. Most people also would have been called crazy if they said a coffee shop could become a corporate world power. But the folks in Seattle know a good story when they see one and this UW team has taken the fairy tale and run with it (I heard Tom Hanks declined the lead role as Head Coach Sarkisian). UW trailed early 10-0 but stayed with the Trojans the rest of the way. USC though had many chances to pull away including a fumble at the UW 16, interception at the UW 20, stopped on downs at the UW 27 and not converting a TD inside the 10 late in the game. Jake Locker on the other hand made plays all day long to give his team a shot. He converted a 3rd and 17, 3rd and 11, 3rd and 16, with the latter two coming in the 4th qtr. The winning drive was 64 yards on 10 plays to set up the game winning field goal with 22 seconds left. Husky Stadium erupted with the win while USC was deflated, having lost another Pac 10 game they were favored by multiple touchdowns. USC may be 2-0 vs. Ohio State but they have lost the game after both times. They don’t look good on offense so this early loss may not cost them a chance at the title game like others have, but that remains to be seen.

 
Saturday Lox Week 3 in Review


Premium Lox

Week 3: 0-3

Overall: 4-8

Winners: None. I went with the top teams against the spread and all came out flat. Not a great week to be betting big on the best teams.

Losers:

Florida (-29): 23-13

The Gators had a chance to pull away in the 4th qtr when Tebow fumbled at the UT 8 yard line. A score there would have made it a 24 point lead with 10 minutes left and a good chance at the cover, as Tennessee was gassed on defense. As it is Tebow lost possession and UT went on a long scoring drive to make it a 10 point game. Turnovers usually make the difference and for a team giving 29 points to the opposition you can’t give anything else away. First Gator loss against the spread in a year.

Texas (-19): 34-24

Texas was never in any position to cover the spread as Tech played solid defense the whole way and Taylor Potts led the offense to a near upset. Without some special teams play from the Longhorns that put points up early, Tech outplayed them and has to feel confident with a young team moving further into the season.

BYU (-8): 28-54

This game was closer statistically than the final score would indicate but BYU was severely outclassed in Provo by a hungry Seminoles team. FSU scored TDs on their first 4 possessions after BYU deferred the opening kickoff, good move Mendenhall. BYU had 5 turnovers, including an interception to open the 2nd half that was returned for a TD, making it 37-14. There was no looking back after that as BYU’s dream season set with the sun over Provo. BYU still has several important games against TCU and Utah left, so it will be interesting to see how they react to this loss.

Regular Lox

Week 3: 2-1

Overall: 4-5-1

Winners:

Washington (+20): 16-13

The Huskies now have the biggest upset of the year under their belts and must now face great expectations. This was an undervalued team to start the year and with the win here and covering the spread week 1 vs. LSU, they have shown to be a formidable opponent. How will Vegas react to this game: UW is still TD underdogs on the road at Stanford this week.

Nebraska (+6): 15-16

Nebraska’s defense absolutely dominated Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, leading 18-11 in first downs and outgaining the Hokies. But when a team kicks 5 field goals as Nebraska did, twice unable to convert inside the 10, sometimes the game is lost. For the Huskers they have every right to blame poor officiating as they were flagged on four consecutive plays, including mystery holds, starting at the VT 5 yard line, leading them out of field goal range and taking a TD off the board in the process. But they also shot themselves in the foot with chances to put the game away. When they punted back to VT leading 15-10 with 1:40 left, their defense seemed like they would hold on for the win. But one big pass play to a receiver that got behind the safety led to an 81 yard gain down to the 3 yard line. But Nebraska sacked QB Tyrod Taylor on the next play leading to a 3rd and goal from the 11 when Taylor found a receiver in the end zone for the winning points. The Huskers were close to a huge road win over a ranked team, but came up short. DT Ndamukong Suh had a tremendous game and the Huskers under Bo Pelini should feel good moving into Big 12 action.

Losers:

Fresno State (+8): 34-51

One of the most exciting games of the week for offensive fireworks, Boise and Fresno combined for 8 plays of 60 yards or more, Fresno seemingly without safeties for much of the game. But every time Fresno got within a score and inside the spread, Boise would come back. Fresno trailed 24-3 early but behind runs of 69, 60 and 68 yards by Ryan Mathews (you would have known about him before the game if you read this blog) the Bulldogs got back in the game and had chances to take the lead. But Boise proved too much late and stopped Fresno when it counted to take a commanding 17 point lead. A great game to watch but no fun in the end if you were betting on Fresno St.

Upset Specials

Week 3: 0-1 (outright upset)

Overall: 1-5 (outright upsets)

Buffalo (+6)(+175): 17-23

Buffalo went into Orlando to take on Central Florida and led 17-7 at half with a 203-92 yard edge. But as it is with my upset picks, this was not meant to be as UCF scored 10 points to tie the game after Buffalo turnovers and then in the 4th qtr kicked two field goals to win it. Buffalo was driving to win the game but was intercepted on 4th down to ice the game. A disappointing loss for a team accustomed to winning close games.

Overall, my picks have not fared well through 3 weeks. With September coming to an end soon and conferences gearing up for big games and intense rivalries the stage is set for Saturday Lox to sink or swim. Just as USC will not give up on the season after a tough week, I will not give up on finding the best matchups and the winning spreads. So stay tuned to college football every Saturday and continue reading this site for insight into the best games or just take the opposite of my picks, that would be a winning formula so far.