Oregon at Boise State (-3) – Thursday
Players to Watch:
Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli, RB LeGarrette Blount, RB LaMichael James, WR Jamere Holland
Boise St QB Kellen Moore, RB Jeremy Avery, WR Austin Pettis
Keys to the Game:
Oregon travels to the Blue Turf with a new head coach, a new offensive line and only 9 returning starters. Last year in Eugene, Boise jumped on the short handed Ducks early, essentially relegating them to their 5th string QB and held on to win 37-32. Boise feels that this is their opportunity to beat a BCS team impressively and win out on their way to a January bowl game. Chris Peterson has not lost at home in 4 years and Boise overall has lost just once at home in the decade. Look for a great opening season game with both teams knowing that this could make or break their season. I would have trouble betting against either team, but with an inexperienced Oregon travelling to the biggest sporting event in Idaho history (their words, not mine) I see Boise winning a close one as the spread indicates. Oregon does have legitimate revenge and if they can disrupt an excited Boise team and get the crowd out of the game, the Ducks can put a lot of points up in a hurry. Maybe the best pure college football game of the week (and the only one featuring a new Nike game “Guess Oregon’s uniform “, the odds are worse than the lottery ).
BYU vs Oklahoma (-22.5) (at the new Cowboys Stadium)
Players:
BYU QB Max Hall, RB Harvey Unga, TE Dennis Pitta
Okla. QB Sam Bradford, RB Demarco Murray, TE Jermaine Gresham
Keys:
BYU comes into the season with the hope of crashing the BCS. They have the schedule to actually play in the national title game if they go unbeaten. A win here and vs FSU later and a sweep of a good MWC would make it hard for the voters to ignore. The problem is here. BYU has the skill positions to win this game, but just one OL returns. When you play against a defense like OU you better protect your QB. Look for BYU to stay within shouting distance but ultimately the talent, speed and depth of OU to pull away. I hope BYU’s punter has practiced hitting the video board, maybe he can kill some time off the clock if this game is close.
Virginia Tech vs Alabama (-6) (at the Georgia Dome)
Players:
VT QB Tyrod Taylor,WR Jarrett Boykin, DE Jason Worilds, FS Kam Chancellor
Bama WR Julio Jones, RB Mark Ingram, DT Terrence Cody, CB Javier Arenas
Keys:
I see a low scoring game in this one. Alabama lost their senior QB and RB and are inexperienced with only 4 starters back on offense. VT lost All ACC RB Darren Evans in fall practice, a huge blow to their title aspirations. Both coaches will play close to the vest and hope their defense and special teams can win this one. Tyrod Taylor needs to mature quickly after being yanked around from redshirt to splitting time to starter and now must lead VT. They go as far as he can take them and he looked great last January in the Orange Bowl. Alabama opened last year in the Georgia Dome as TD underdogs to Clemson before demolishing Tommy Bowden’s club and setting the stage for Bama’s undefeated run to the SEC title game. This year they are the hunted. I think the over/under (38) says a lot about this matchup, not much offense but maybe scores on defense and ST, hence the defensive players to watch. Javier Areanas could be a difference maker in the return game. This should be a great game if you don’t mind tough play in the trenches and not many offensive highlights.
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Texas A&M (-14) vs New Mexico
Players:
A&M QB Jerrod Johnson, RB Cyrus Gray
Keys: Under 1st year coach Mike Sherman last year the Aggies lost to Arkansas St at home in game 1 before beating this NM team on the road in week 2, even though they were outgained. But look for the Aggies to be ready this year and jump on the Lobos under new coach Mike Locksley (OC at Illinois and FLA under Zook). NM will install a new no huddle passing attack and with only 9 starters back should run into a tough defense here. Look for the Aggies to start strong against weak competition and build confidence for the rugged Big 12 south. They have a bye week 2 so they should hold nothing back here and will want to make up for last year’s embarrassment at home.
Illinois (-6.5) vs Missouri (in St. Louis)
Players:
Illinois QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn
Keys: Illinois has lost this game two years in a row to surprising Missouri teams. But these teams are going in different directions in 09. Illinois amazingly outgained opponents by 85 yards (2nd best in Big 10) last year but finished just 3-5. So they have the talent to win this conference. Missouri on the other hand lost the most letterman and starters of any team, including all everything QB Chase Daniel, 1st round pick Jeremy Maclin and top TE Chase Coffman (Mackey Award winner). Missouri is not a program that can reload in a hurry and will suffer mightily from these graduations. The Illini have two dark horse Heisman candidates in Williams and Benn, and if the senior QB can limit turnovers and allow the talent around him to make plays Illinois will win this one easily. Look for Benn to show off his talent in the return game, scoring or setting up the Illini offense often. If this game needed more hype it got it when the Republican Senator from Missouri was heard bad mouthing Illinois football, while on break from discussing Obama’s health care plan. Not sure which topic pissed off the President more.
UTEP (-9) vs Buffalo
Players: UTEP QB Trevor Vittatoe, WR Kris Adams
Keys: This game is a classic value pick. UTEP was 5-7 last year including a road loss to Buffalo 42-17. Buffalo was the surprise MAC champion, beating Ball St in a crazy conference title game. But it is 2009 and UTEP is experienced on both sides of the ball and should be ready to contend for the CUSA title this year. While Buffalo was just 8th best in the MAC last year in yardage differential, actually being outgained on average. They won last year by having +19 turnovers. Usually that stat will even out year to year. So take the undervalued UTEP Miners playing with revenge over the overvalued Bulls, who should come back down to earth, even if they do have one of the best coaches in the country, Turner Gill (Auburn remember backed out of hiring him and was chastised by famous alum Charles Barkley, but at least those Auburn fans have a coach that talks like them, even if he led the worst team in the Big 12 the last several years, Iowa St. Go War Eagle or not).
Georgia (+6) at Oklahoma St
Players:
UGA- WR AJ Green, WR Michael Moore, S Reshad Jones, LB Rennie Curran
OK ST- QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, WR Dez Bryant
Keys: This is a difficult game to handicap with OK St having the best trio of QB, RB, WR in the country, yet UGA is strong defensively and at the line of scrimmage. OK St has never been rated preseason top 10 so they find themselves in unfamiliar territory, while UGA seems to always be undervalued in odd numbered years. They weren’t supposed to be good in 07 yet won the Sugar Bowl, they were preseason #1 last year and faltered. Part of this is because they had the skill position talent last year, yet were weak on the O-line and the defense never came together. This year they are strong everywhere except where they lost QB Stafford and RB Moreno. Joe Cox steps in at QB, a senior getting his first opportunity to start (similar to 05 when DJ Shockley stepped in as a senior QB and led them to the SEC Title, odd numbered year). Mark Richt does best when expectations are low, so look out for UGA this year. Under Richt they are 30-4 in opponents’ home stadiums, including 10-2 vs top 25 (some coaches don’t win 10 games vs top 25 in their career, let alone on the road). And he is 3-0 last 4 years straight up as an underdog on the road. Hmmmm. Sounds like an upset to me. I like OK St’s talent a lot and they should be exciting all year, but this is a tough way to start what is supposed to be a magical season. With UGA holding the advantage on the line of scrimmage, take the 6 points and root for the upset. T. Boone Pickens will be sweating in the luxury box he built on this one.
Miami (+6.5) at Florida St – Monday
Players:
Miami- QB Jacory Harris, RB Graig Cooper, WR Aldarius Johnson
FSU- QB Christian Ponder, WR Bert Reed
Keys: In 2004-06 these teams opened against each other with Miami losing 2 of 3, with all low scoring games. They have split the last two years with games played midseason. The underdog has won this matchup straight up 6 of the last 7. The pressure is firmly on Randy Shannon’s Hurricanes this year, as he is just 12-13 in two seasons at the helm and finally has his recruiting classes playing a major role. They have 15 starters back from a 7-6 team that relied heavily on underclassmen. With Miami’s schedule in September (FSU, GT, VT, OKLA) they must win this game to avoid a possible 0-4 start that would have boosters calling for Shannon’s head. I see a much improved sophomore QB in Harris and a reliable running game giving Miami enough offense to beat FSU (or at least cover). But the big, fast and athletic Miami defense will be the difference. When is the last time anyone on FSU excited the country? Peter Warrick or Warrick Dunn? It seems Bowden just does not bring the talent to Talahassee anymore or lacks the innovation to compete at the highest level, and this may be Shannon’s time to stake claim to this rivalry. Being the final game of the week and played on national TV, both teams have a chance to shine but the Canes need it more. Look for another low scoring affair while the Canes cover the spread and maybe pull the upset. If you are getting greedy at the end of the weekend parlay the money line and the under 46.
OTHER LOX
Troy St (-7) at Bowling Green - Thursday
Troy St is the best team out of the Sun Belt Conf. in years. They went into Death Valley and led LSU 31-3 in the second half last year before succumbing 40-31, so they obviously have some talent and swagger. They play a MAC team for just the 2nd time ever, but should not have trouble putting points up and beating BG. This is my Thursday Lox of the Week. So while you enjoy the NC State-South Carolina game, keep an eye on the score of this one and make some money in the process.
Navy (+23) at Ohio State
With OSU’s season on the line next week vs. USC they could be caught looking ahead and won’t open up the offense like Tressel would like with his sophomore sensation Pryor. Last year the week prior to USC they trailed Ohio going into the 4th qtr as 33 pt favorites, eventually winning by 12. They also lost RB Wells last year for the USC game after Tressel played Wells in the 4th qtr of a blowout vs 1-AA Youngstown, trying to showcase his Heisman candidate. You know this won’t happen again and if OSU is up more than 14 will have their backups in. All this points to Navy at least covering the spread as they are 14-4 against the spread as road underdogs and 6-3 ATS in road openers. Take Navy and hope OSU is looking ahead and has some trouble acclimating new starters at LB, DB, RB and WR, where they lost Wells, WR’s Robiskie and Hartline, LB’s Laurinaitis and Freeman and CB Jenkins to the NFL.
LSU at Washington (+19)
The last time these two met it was UW in the top 10 and a 4-7 LSU team beat them in Baton Rouge, in 1983. Move ahead 26 years and LSU is the perennial top 10 and UW is coming off an embarrassing 0-12 campaign. I’m not going to predict an upset by any means, but I do believe the Huskies keep this one close, playing inspired football for their new coach Sarkesian and with QB Jake Locker back healthy. Remember they should have taken BYU to OT last year in week 2 if not for a horrible personal foul call on a late Locker TD that put the PAT back 15 yards, ended up missing and losing the game by 1. UW is not as bad as their record last year and with 18 returning starters and new life breathed into the program look for a closer game than Vegas thinks. LSU opens the SEC season next week vs. Vandy and might be caught looking ahead just a bit. No matter how much Les Miles tells his team to take UW seriously, these are still kids that are being asked how bad they are going to kill UW by every student in Baton Rouge.
Colorado St at Colorado (-10) - Sunday
This game is usually played on the neutral field in Denver (I guess Josh McDaniels found another way to endear himself to Colorado football fans, what more can he dismantle before coaching his first game for the Broncos) but this year they move on campus to Boulder. This has historically been a close rivalry but last year the Buffaloes won 38-17. CSU looks on the way down as a program, with their defense having a lot of work to do replacing 6 starters and a QB who has not started a road game. The Buffs want to start strong in Dan Hawkins’ 4th season and could easily be 3-0 heading into a Thursday night showdown at West Virginia. Look for Darrell Scott, just a sophomore, to run wild behind a dominating o-line and the Buffs to be partying on campus late into Sunday night, yes Sunday. And I will be partying with them as I get a first hand look at the city of Boulder, as a guest of a wedding not in the stands at Folsom Field.
Upset Specials
UCONN at Ohio (+4) (+145)
Ohio is poised to contend this year in the MAC after a 4-8 season that saw them lose 4 close games. Uconn is a bowl team from a year ago but loses first round draft pick RB Donald Brown (who could take Addai’s place in the Indy backfield), their do everything offensive weapon. Last year Uconn travelled to MAC foe Temple and barely escaped with a 12-9 OT win. With UNC and Baylor on deck Uconn might look past this game, thinking they are the Big East team who should win easily. With a senior QB and explosive playmakers in RB Donte Harden and WR Taylor Price, I will call for the upset here as Ohio is 5-1 in home openers and upset Pitt in 05.
Baylor (+3) (+110) at Wake Forest
Baylor lost this game at home last year 41-13, but grew up in the second half, going 4-1 as road underdogs against the spread, including a win over A&M. Since 2000 WF is 8-17-1 as a home favorite. This year they lose 7 starters on defense and although they return senior QB Riley Skinner will have trouble matching the last 3 years bowl teams. Baylor looks to be much stronger than years past and needs to build confidence before the Big 12 season. If they win this they could be 4-0 when they go to Norman, OK in October. Led by sophomore QB Robert Griffin and RB Jay Finley, Baylor may have the talent edge on WF and should pull the upset.
Previously mentioned possible upsets:
Georgia (+6) at Oklahoma State
Miami (+6.5) at Florida State
Thanks for reading the Saturday Lox, enjoy the weekend of games and check back next week for results and more picks. Have a great weekend!
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