Week 3 arrives in college football with intriguing conference matchups, revenge games and non conference tilts that will have implications in the BCS picture long down the road. We’ll start with everyone’s favorite loud mouth coach going into The Swamp.
Tennessee @ #1 Florida (-29)
Players:
Florida: QB Tim Tebow, RB Jeffrey Demps, CB Joe Haden, LB Brandon Spikes (and the entire defense)
Tennessee: RB Bryce Brown, S Eric Berry,
Even without all the offseason trash talking out of Knoxville and new coach Lane Kiffin, the Gators would not need much motivation in this rivalry game. With the accusations of cheating that turned out false (Kiffin had yet to read the rule book apparently) Urban Meyer will take this game personal (interesting side note is Meyer and Monte Kiffin were good friends, Meyer visiting him while Kiffin was TB Bucs’ coordinator to pick his mind about defenses. That’s why it was surprising to see Monte’s son call out Meyer and start what seems to be a losing war of words).
Remember last year, Florida was looking for revenge against Georgia after the Dawgs victory the year before and ensuing end zone celebration involving the whole team. Well, as 6 point favorites Florida jumped all over the Bulldogs and winning 49-10 late in the game, Urban called timeouts trying to extend the lead. I think Mark Richt and Georgia learned their lesson: Don’t show up the Gators unless you are ready for payback. Now it is Lane Kiffin’s turn. If last week was a preview the Vols will have a long day. They struggled all day against a decent UCLA team, QB Crompton threw 3 interceptions and the Neyland Stadium crowd was silenced in defeat. Florida on the other hand has played two overmatched foes and dominated both. Now they step up in competition and can’t wait to send a message to Knoxville and the whole country. Florida’s defense will dominate with all 11 starters back from their national championship team, including LB Spikes, DE Carlos Dunlap, CB Haden and SS Ahmad Black. This unit will be gunning for a shutout and a big statement starting off SEC play. Florida’s offense is led by QB Tebow as everyone knows, but the RB combination of Jeffrey Demps, Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody should be outstanding against an overmatched front 7. Look for big plays in the passing game from David Nelson, Riley Cooper and outstanding sophomore Deonte Thompson. This is the first test for the defending champs and Urban Meyer should have his team ready for all comers. See below for my pick.
Texas Tech @ #2 Texas (-18)
Players:
Texas: QB Colt McCoy, WR Jordan Shipley, LB Sergio Kindle, FS Blake Gideon
Texas Tech: QB Taylor Potts, WR Detron Lewis
Last year’s matchup featured one of the best games of the year as Michael Crabtree caught a Graham Harrell pass with 1 second left and ran into the end zone to set off the biggest celebration in Lubbock history. The problem for the Red Raiders is none of those three elements is in play this year. Harrell graduated, Crabtree left for the NFL (still holding out for the 1-0 49ers) and Lubbock can only watch this game on TV. The Longhorns remember well as that loss and the Big 12 tiebreaker system cost them a chance to play in the Title game. With 16 starters back, including 9 on offense, the Longhorns are out for revenge and Tech may have trouble stopping them. McCoy wants to prove he is the best QB in the nation and will have a Saturday night national audience to show it. Tech usually plays best at home and struggles on the road, especially in big games. They are also a young team with just 11 starters returning and go on the road for the first time. Look for the Longhorns to stake claim to the Big 12 after early season non-conference losses by rivals Oklahoma and OK State. The only question mark for the Horns is a young but talented secondary that will be tested by Mike Leach’s passing offense. But Texas should have plenty of offense themselves. Look for RB Vondrell McGee to run wild if Tech tries to stop McCoy from beating them. This is the Longhorns toughest opponent until they face the Sooners in October so they should be ready to put on a show.
Florida State @ #7 BYU (-7)
Players:
BYU: QB Max Hall, RB Harvey Unga, WR McKay Jacobson, TE Dennis Pitta
FSU: QB Christian Ponder, WR Taiwan Easterling, WR Bert Reed
These programs have started the season going in opposite directions. BYU upset Oklahoma (outgaining them even with Bradford healthy) and then followed up with a thrashing of Tulane. FSU played a great game vs. rival Miami but lost on the final play when QB Ponder’s throw fell through the hands of his receiver. They followed that loss with a 4th qtr comeback win against Jacksonville St., which is a good 1-AA team, but still. Now BYU heads home thinking BCS. They played without their star RB Harvey Unga the first two weeks, but he will be in uniform and with Max Hall throwing the ball all over the field BYU should feel good about their chances of knocking off two powerhouse programs in 3 weeks. Florida State has a lot to work out this week if they want to pull off the upset, but never count this team out. Ponder is looking better than ever and with speedy weapons Easterling and Reed, he has the playmakers to keep BYU on its heels. A big non conference game in September, look for Provo to be rocking and maybe even a Steve Young or Ty Detmer sighting on the sidelines. See below for my pick.
Players:
VT: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Ryan Williams, FS Kam Chancellor
Nebraska: QB Zac Lee, RB Roy Helu, WR Niles Paul, DT Ndamukong Suh
A Boy Named Suh. Although Johnny Cash was not talking about the All American DT from Nebraska many in Lincoln are calling Ndamukong Suh the key to the return of the Blackshirts Defense, and the “Man in Black” would be proud of that. Second year coach Bo Pelini brought back the tradition of the Blackshirts and has one of the best defensive players in the nation leading the charge. Although Nebraska has yet to give up a TD in two games (FAU and Ark. St. of the Sun Belt) and has put up 49 and 45 points respectively, they face their first big test and it comes on the road in Blacksburg, VA. The Hokies lost a tough opening game to Alabama, staying close until the 4th qtr, and demolished an overmatched Marshall squad last week. Both teams are led by junior QB’s and are very similar in talent. Tech should have the edge playing at home but Nebraska will be flying high for this game after losing to the Hokies last year in Lincoln 35-30 in a comeback that fell short. The Huskers are looking for respect with a big non-conference win while Va. Tech needs this win to avoid a 1-2 start with Miami up next. The Hokies will need redshirt freshman RB Ryan Williams to keep the defense guessing or else Suh and the rest of the Blackshirts will tee off on QB Taylor, which could make for a long day. Husker QB Zac Lee will have to show the same poise he showed against lesser opponents and RB Helu will need a big game on the ground to control the clock and the game. One of only two matchups of ranked teams this week, the Hokies and the Huskers should be a great game from Blacksburg.
Lox of the Week
Two weeks into the season and it seems everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. So for week 3 I am channeling my inner Mike Singletary (even practicing the stare in my mirror at home, but not the pants down motivational speech, I still have neighbors in close proximity).
“I want winners!!”
So without further ado here are the picks for week 3
Premium Lox
The Best Bets
Florida (-29) vs. Tennessee
Everyone knows the Gators haven’t lost a game since the upset to Ole Miss last year and the famous postgame speech by Tebow. But not many people know they have covered every spread since then as well. That’s right. Favored in every game they played the Gators have won in Vegas as well as on the scoreboard. So with Tennessee visiting the Swamp it is time to hitch a ride on the Tebow Express and go all in on the Gators. I predict an all around effort by Florida that will overwhelm the Vols early and often. All in all, I believe the 63 they scored vs. Kentucky last year or the 56 vs. South Carolina is within reach. The Vols are Gator bait this week. PICK: Florida 59 – Tennessee 13
Texas (-19) vs. Texas Tech
Texas has handled Tech in Austin over the years and this year should be no different. The Longhorns will play motivated from the start and put up points at will on the Red Raider defense. Tech came to Austin in 2005 ranked #10 and abruptly lost 52-17 to Vince Young and company. Colt McCoy will try for a signature performance and the Texas defense will hold an inexperienced offense in check. PICK: Texas 45 – Texas Tech 17
BYU (-8) vs. Florida State
Max Hall will be happy to be back in Provo and he’ll give the home fans a show. Look for a close game at halftime with BYU taking control of the game from a gassed FSU team playing at altitude. Remember the Seminoles also will be playing their third game in 12 days, having played on Labor Day Monday and then last Saturday. BYU will keep the dream season going with a big win here. PICK: BYU 34 – Florida State 21
Regular Lox
USC @ Washington (+20)
Pete Carroll takes on his protégé Steve Sarkisian in the first Pac 10 game for both teams. UW looked good in a loss to LSU and in winning their first game in over a year last week vs. Idaho. USC meanwhile earned a hard fought victory in Columbus last week and now must travel north this week. Add in the injury to Matt Barkley and USC may be starting a new QB (Aaron Corp) on the road in his first college start. Also take into account the fact Sarkisian knows the USC offense as well as anyone and probably knows what color underwear Aaron Corp will be wearing. Washington has a shot not just to cover but I truly believe to pull the upset if QB Jake Locker performs the way he is capable. Also watch redshirt freshman RB Chris Polk for UW, which is a talented team that outgained LSU and is certainly capable of playing with a possibly flat Trojans team. Remember USC has been known to win the big games but lose some games they are expected to dominate. It was last year after the OSU game they went to Corvallis and lost to the Beavers. I see a close game being won by USC with a strong final quarter. PICK: USC 34 – UW 24
Nebraska (+6) @ Virginia Tech
Although most signs point to the Hokies taking care of business at home in Lane Stadium, I like Nebraska to keep this game close with a chance to win late. This game is bigger for the Huskers, a chance to show the nation that the program has recovered from the Bill Callahan era. They beat ACC power Clemson a year ago in the Gator Bowl, so they know they match up with a similar Hokies team. Va. Tech I’m sure was watching Miami beat up on GT last night and they may be looking ahead to the Hurricanes visit to Blacksburg next week, possibly the biggest ACC game of the season. If Nebraska can pressure Tyrod Taylor and control the line of scrimmage, I think they will have enough offense to cover the spread and possibly pull off the upset. PICK: Nebraska 24 – Virginia Tech 23
Fresno State (+9) vs. Boise State – Friday
Boise State has only lost two games since joining the WAC in 2001, losing at Fresno in 2005 for one of the losses. Although Boise is the more talented team Fresno has the players to hang with them, especially with the hostile crowd expected for the Friday night game. Fresno is coming off a heart breaking OT loss at Wisconsin, in a game they outplayed the Badgers. But this is the game the Bulldogs circled on their calendar, hoping to finally take back the WAC from perennial power Boise. I expect a close game and if Fresno makes enough plays offensively with RB Ryan Mathews and (say it with me now) WR Seyi Ajirotutu (Oak Ridge HS graduate for those in the Sacramento area), I think the Bulldogs could surprise the Broncos and put an end to Boise’s talk of an undefeated season. As it is I think Chris Peterson will pull this one out behind the play of QB Kellen Moore and RB Jeremy Avery. But the fans in Boise and those who travel down to the Valley will sweat this one out all 4 quarters. PICK: Boise State 31 – Fresno State 27
Upset Specials
Although I considered many games that have the possibility of an upset, including Arizona going to Iowa as 6 point underdogs and Oregon State hosting Big East power Cincinnati as 2 point underdogs, I just couldn’t pull the trigger on those games. Cincinnati has looked great, destroying a favored Rutgers team in week 1 and the only question is if the cross country travel will slow them down. Iowa looked horrible in escaping an upset vs. Northern Iowa but then beat Iowa State 35-3 last week, while UA Wildcats have won 2 home games and now must travel to a tough place to play. Those are toss ups in my book but I don’t have the confidence in either team to pick the outright upset. But there is one game that does have the makings of a money line bet:
Buffalo (+4.5) (+165) @ Central Florida
Turner Gill leads the Buffalo Bulls into Orlando. UCF has struggled both weeks while Buffalo already upset UTEP in El Paso. Although they got blown out vs. Pitt last week they still put up a lot of yards and should have no problem doing so again this week. The Bulls are a well coached, disciplined and tough football team that will not beat themselves. For those reasons I believe UCF will have a lot of problems come Saturday. Take Buffalo on the money line and laugh all the way to the bank. PICK: Buffalo 23 – UCF 21
This should be a great Saturday for any college football fan. There is plenty of intrigue all across the country and good games all day long. So make plans early to send the kids or the wife off to the movies and grab your remote control, set the Tivo and grab a cold mug of beer. It is Saturday in September and nothing is better than relaxing on the couch for 12 hours or until you have heard enough of Lou Holtz. Have a great weekend!
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