Clemson @ Georgia Tech (-5.5) – Thursday
Players to Watch:
Clemson: RB CJ Spiller, WR Jacoby Ford, DE Ricky Sapp
GT: QB Josh Nesbitt, RB Jonathan Dwyer, SS Morgan Burnett
The week gets off to a quick start as the ACC plays another important conference game early. Both teams cruised last week against weak opponents and probably held back most of their offense to prepare for this one. A short week is usually a tough task going against GT’s option attack but I’m sure Clemson was preparing all summer for this game. Last year Dabo Swinney took over the week before the Yellow Jackets came to Clemson and he almost pulled the upset, losing 21-17, as GT won on a long pass with 5 minutes left. GT has two consecutive Thursday night games (Miami next week) that will go a long way in determining their season. Clemson has struggled in Atlanta, scoring just 9 and 3 points the last two games, and are just 1-8 in Thursday night ESPN games. GT meanwhile beat Miami convincingly on a Thursday night last year and Paul Johnson went 4-1 ATS as a home favorite. I expect this to be a well played game and showcase two of the upper echelon ACC teams. Clemson needs to take the pressure off their young QB Kyle Parker with Spiller and Jamie Harper running the ball and Jacoby Ford making big plays at WR. GT will put the ball and their faith in QB Nesbitt, letting him run the triple option and look to get all his playmakers involved. Dwyer is one of the best RBs in the nation, but Clemson will look to neutralize him and make the other skill players beat them. Watch out for Roddy Jones and Demaryius Thomas, they can break the big plays when the defense is looking elsewhere. This should be one of the better matchups of a slow week. See below for the pick in the Lox of the Week.
USC (-7) @ Ohio State
Players:
USC: QB Matt Barkley, RBs Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight, FS Taylor Mays
OSU: QB Terrelle Pryor, RBs Brandon Saine and Dan Herron
The only game of the week featuring ranked foes this sets up to be a test for Ohio St as a whole and for USC’s freshman QB. OSU had trouble week 1 putting away Navy, but could have taken a 22 point lead in the 4th qtr if not for being stopped on downs. So although the game was close and Navy played inspired football, OSU almost made it a blowout. USC on the other hand had a slow first qtr, trailing 3-0, then put up 56 unanswered points. USC won this game 35-3 in LA last year, in a closer game than the final would indicate, outgaining USC first half before succumbing to the Trojans in the second half. It was Pryor’s first test at QB and he played without Beanie Wells.
OSU is 47-1 at home versus non conference, only losing to Texas in 05. USC though is tremendous in big games and Pete Carroll seems to always know which QB will perform best. With Barkley behind center in his first road game look for USC to run the ball until they are stopped (and that could be awhile as OSU’s defense looked mediocre last week) and use play action to look for big plays, similar to what Navy did last week. OSU will have to control the line of scrimmage on both sides, a tough task, and let Pryor make plays with his feet and arm. Pryor is the X factor and the only way I see OSU winning this game. He needs to make great decisions, be able to throw in and out of the pocket, and he will need his WRs to step up against a talented secondary. USC lost 3 LBs in the first round of the draft and we’ll see on Saturday how well they replaced them. Any tackles they miss Taylor Mays, the best safety in the nation will be there to clean up. I have a gut feeling Joe McKnight will finally take center stage as a gamebreaking threat, a la Reggie Bush, for USC, something Trojan fans have been waiting 3 years to see. See below for the pick in the Lox of the Week.
Notre Dame (-4) @ Michigan
Players:
ND: QB Jimmy Clausen, WRs Michael Floyd, Golden Tate
Michigan: QB Tate Forcier, RB Brandon Minor, WR Greg Mathews
Both teams had great first weeks with ND shutting out a good Nevada team 35-0 and Michigan crushing W. Michigan, taking a little pressure off Rich Rodriguez after the practicegate controversy he found himself in. Michigan found their offense for the first time under Rich with Forcier running his spread option very well. Now he must do it against a better defense with more pressure than he has ever seen. Both teams feature respected new defensive coordinators, Jon Tenuta at ND and Greg Robinson at Michigan (DC in the NFL and former Cuse head coach) and this could be the deciding factor. ND’s offense looks to be excellent, with Floyd and Tate (maybe the best WR tandem in CFB) catching passes from Clausen, and Michigan seems to have found the personnel to fit the option look. This could come down to who can get stops late in the game. And although this is in the Big House, the low point spread shows many people think Michigan is back and could pull the upset. This game is too close to call in my book, but it is obvious Michigan still has the talent to win, but ND might have too many athletes and too much offense. On a side note, ND is 9-4-1 ATS as road favorites over 10 years, something to keep in mind.
UCLA @ Tennessee (-11)
Players:
UCLA: QB Kevin Prince, WR Terrence Austin
Tenn: RBs Bryce Brown and Montario Hardesty
This game shapes up as two once proud programs trying to rise from the ashes following losing seasons. But the real intrigue is on the sidelines, as Lane Kiffin and his dad Monty (No, not Cal Worthington and his dog Spot, though he will be selling used cars at halftime) take on Rick Neuheisel (and his gambling compliance dept). Tennessee needs this win to start 2-0 while they await their rival Florida Gators, who have been using Lane Kiffin tackling dummies since spring practice. UCLA got a nice win vs. San Diego St last week and travel cross country for this one. Last year UCLA opened the season with an upset of the Vols on Labor Day, so Tennessee will be out for revenge. UCLA should be much improved in Neuheisel’s second year and if this game was in LA I might call for the upset, but Tennessee has a lot to prove and the Kiffins won’t take this game lightly. The Bruins start a redshirt freshman QB who might have trouble in front of 102,000 fans for the first time. Look for the defenses to be in control with Monte Kiffin bailing out his son to get the win. But the real action will be prior to kickoff when the coaches meet at midfield to see what is riding on the game. I heard if the Vols win, Rick has to call out Urban Meyer for recruiting violations, while if the Bruins pull the upset Lane has to call a news conference to leak the results of the USC steroids tests, Pete Carroll will not be happy. Either way it is business as usual for these coaches trying to get their name in the paper next to their bigger rivals. By the way, Kiffin is winning the battle of the better looking wife, see below.
Lox of the Week
Premium Lox – The Best Bets
USC (-7) @ Ohio State
I believe USC is the more talented team and with the recent history of OSU in big games, especially non-conference, there is nothing to make me believe they will win this (or keep it within a score). This may be a different USC team, with a young QB and short on defensive leadership, but they expect to win these games and should pull through. Look for a close game at halftime with USC too much in the second half.
Central Florida (UCF) @ Southern Mississippi (-14)
In this Conference USA battle look for SM to control this game from start to finish. UCF needed a late comeback to beat 1-AA Samford last week and SM should be one of the top teams in the conference. RB Damion Fletcher is a 2 time All Conf. performer and leads the offense while WR DeAndre Brown is a great threat on the outside. Take the Golden Eagles in this one and hope George O’Leary has as much trouble in this game as he did on his resume for Notre Dame several years ago.
Utah @ San Jose State (+14)
Utah is not the same team as last year with only 12 returning starters (5 offense), and were in a fight last week at home vs. Utah State. SJSU meanwhile was getting mopped by USC in LA. But something tells me Dick Tomey was preparing for this game, knowing they have a shot here rather than last week. Obviously Kyle Whittingham does a great job preparing Utah but with an away game in Eugene, Oregon next week, maybe just maybe SJSU sneaks up on Utah and keeps this close enough to have a chance at the upset. They played BCS schools Nebraska and Stanford tough last year and are an improved team with 15 returning starters including QB Kyle Reed and JC transfer Lamon Muldrow.
Oregon State @ UNLV (+7)
UNLV was better than their 5-7 record last year, upsetting Arizona State and coming close at BYU. They get another early Pac 10 game and will be ready. Oregon State usually starts slow and this year has just 10 starters back, meaning it could be a tough September for Mike Riley. They also have trouble in their first road game, losing their last 6 road openers, twice as favorites, including last year at Stanford. UNLV meanwhile is 3-1 all time vs. OSU and 2-1 at home vs. BCS competition. The Rebels are also 15-9 ATS as home underdogs, including 11-5 with Mike Sanford as coach. All this adds up to UNLV covering the spread and perhaps continuing the Beavers unexplained September swoons with an outright upset.
Regular Lox
The Other Bets
Clemson @ Georgia Tech (-5.5) – Thursday
The game preview above tells the story but I believe GT has the offensive weapons to beat Clemson. The QB play will be the difference and with CJ Spiller tweaking his hamstring he could be a step slower for Clemson. Take the Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech!!
Vanderbilt @ LSU (-14)
LSU had some trouble finishing off Washington in Seattle last week. But that was the farthest they have travelled to a game and this week get to sleep in their beds and wake up in the Bayou. Led by Jordan Jefferson at QB, Charles Scott at RB and WRs Brandon LaFell and Terrance Toliver the Tigers will get the offense going under the lights in Baton Rouge. Look for true freshman Russell Shepard to make his debut for LSU, the #1 rated QB in the nation, as a hybrid QB/RB. Geaux Tigers!!
North Carolina (-5) @ UCONN
I bet against UCONN last week and they pulled off the win at Ohio. But they come home here to face the Tar Heels. Butch Davis keeps putting together great recruiting classes (as he did at Miami, not so much for the Browns, but …) this UNC team should be ready to take the next step. Injuries hurt them last year but with QB TJ Yates back and the emergence of a punishing offensive line, RB Shaun Draughn will lead UNC in this one. UCONN is always well coached under Randy Edsall but the talent level this week is not nearly equal. UNC destroyed Big East teams Rutgers and this UCONN team last year. Look for the same, UNC winning by more than a TD. Roy Williams might even be proud.
Upset Specials
Air Force (+4) (+140) @ Minnesota
Minny opens its new stadium in this one, coming off an OT win at Syracuse. Air Force is 17-12 as road underdogs over 10 years. They also won their last two vs. Big 10 teams. I like the Falcons in this one with Minnesota going through all the pageantry of a new stadium while AFA has been looking to this game all summer.
Hawaii @ Washington State (+3) (+130) in Seattle
WSU is not as bad as last year and should continue to get better. They gave a good Stanford team a decent game until the 4th qtr last week. They have won 4 of 6 games played in Seattle. Hawaii meanwhile had trouble with 1-AA Central Arkansas last week and has to travel for this one. Look for the upset as the line started out as Hawaii by 7 and quickly got bet down to 3 (early in the week line changes usually means all the “professional” money is on one side).
Western Michigan (+2) @ Indiana
Although WM got blown out last week at the Big House, they are a good MAC team and upset Illinois last year and Iowa the year before. They know how to beat the Big 10 and such a small spread indicates not many people have faith in the Hoosiers.
Although Week 2 does not have a slew of great matchups, sometimes these weeks produce the most memorable and exciting games. So enjoy the weekend and with the NFL taking over Sunday and Monday be sure to get your fill of CFB on Saturday. Good Afternoon and Good Luck.
No comments:
Post a Comment