Week 8

Saturday Lox of the Week


Premium Lox

Oregon State (+21) @ USC

Even with the revenge factor from last year’s upset in Corvallis I don’t think USC can cover 3 touchdowns against a talented OSU team that has been playing good football of late. The Trojans should get the home win to set up a huge Halloween trip to Eugene (assuming the Ducks hold up their end) but I’ll take the points and hope the Beavers get great performances from Jacquizz and James Rodgers. Oregon State is an amazing 8-0 against the spread in October over the last two years. Go Beavers. PICK: USC 31 – Oregon State 20

Auburn (+7.5) @ LSU

This is LSU’s first game since their streak of home wins at night was shattered by Florida two weeks ago. This one is also under the lights and Auburn is off two conference losses to Arkansas and Kentucky. The intangibles favor LSU in this game but I think Auburn comes to play and gets the offense going again after a shaky performance last week. They may not have enough to pull the upset in Baton Rouge but the Bayou Bengals have not blown any team out yet including Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Look for a close game with Auburn a real chance at the upset if they run well and take care of the football. PICK: LSU 24 – Auburn 23

SMU (+17) @ Houston

SMU is coming off a tough OT loss to Navy while Houston has bounced back for two straight wins after their BCS hopes were dashed by UTEP. I like SMU to make this a close game as Houston’s defense is almost as bad as their offense is good. Case Keenum is quietly mounting a Heisman campaign behind center for Houston and will continue to play well in this one, but I fully expect SMU to score enough points to keep this within two touchdowns. June Jones is transforming what was a languishing program and his teams always play well in marquee games. This is the biggest foe the Mustangs will face. Don’t take a bathroom break for this game as there will be a lot of points and a lot of yardage. PICK: Houston 45 – SMU 34

Regular Lox

Texas @ Missouri (+13)

I have not been high on Texas at all this season and here is where I put my money where my mouth is. Missouri has lost two in a row in the Big 12 in disappointing fashion, first the 4th quarter meltdown to Nebraska and last week to Oklahoma State. This will be a big test to see if Gary Pinkel has his team rebuilding or reloading. Texas will face a strong opponent on the road for the first time and will need to correct their problems on offense in a tough environment. The good news for Missouri is they outgained the Cowboys last week and without the turnovers over the last two weeks could be undefeated. Texas has at least two turnovers in every game but Wyoming. This game may come down to which defense forces the mistakes and which offense takes advantage. I think Missouri has the athletes to match up with the Longhorns and unless Colt McCoy reverts to last year’s form I see this game being played in single digits one way or the other. PICK: Texas 23 – Missouri 17

Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Under 42)

South Carolina was upset by the Commodores last year on the road and will be out for revenge in this game. Steve Spurrier’s defense has been the most consistent unit all year and should have a chance at their best game against a weak offense. I expect the Gamecocks to jump on Vanderbilt early and coast to a low scoring victory. There is usually an easy under in the SEC each week and this could be the matchup. It is a low total but I don’t expect Vanderbilt to get to double digits in Columbia, in fact Vanderbilt has hit the under in their last 11 games played in October. PICK: South Carolina 27 – Vanderbilt 6

Oklahoma State (-9.5) @ Baylor

The Cowboys will play their third game without All-American WR Dez Bryant because of eligibility issues and it is uncertain if RB Kendal Hunter will come back from his ankle injury. Still the Cowboys have won every game without their two stars thanks to QB Zac Robinson and some talented replacements. Baylor’s high hopes were brought back to reality after the crushing injury to QB Robert Griffin, possibly the top QB in the Big 12 in the future. But without him Baylor has struggled and will have more trouble with a motivated team coming into Waco this week. The injuries will keep the Cowboys focused this week despite the big game on deck vs. Texas. The Cowboys are 10-3 against the spread vs. Baylor since 1992 and 5-2 in Waco. PICK: Oklahoma State 34 – Baylor 17

Upset Special

Navy (+2) vs. Wake Forest

These two teams met in the EagleBank Bowl (what ever happened to a normal bowl name) last year when Wake Forest won and covered but also matched up in the regular season when Navy got the win as double digit underdogs. I expect the Midshipmen will find a way to win behind a strong running game that has bothered Wake Forest all year. Navy will be happy to be home after two straight weeks in Texas while Wake has been awful on the road in losses to Boston College and Clemson. PICK: Navy 24 – Wake Forest 20