Week 6 College Football

Games of the Week


#1 Florida (-7) @ #4 LSU

Players:

Florida: QB Tim Tebow, RB Jeff Demps, LB Brandon Spikes, CB Joe Haden

LSU: QB Jordan Jefferson, WR Brandon LaFell, CB Patrick Peterson, DE Rahim Alem

The big question heading into this game is whether Tim Tebow will play. From my understanding if he feels OK after the flight to Baton Rouge he will be cleared by the doctors and knowing his competitive nature, he will start. The bigger question in my mind is which LSU team will show up. They had lackluster performances all season before their win at Georgia last week, and even in that game played a great first half but could not capitalize on offense and let UGA back in the game, before winning in the final minute after a controversial celebration penalty on Georgia. LSU thrives on being disrespected and last week showed as they were the underdogs as the #4 team in the country. This week it is understandable they are underdogs, but Les Miles will use any motivation he can to get his team ready to play. The winner of this game has won the National Championship 3 years in a row. Both teams feel this game could make it 4 in a row. For LSU their biggest advantage, Tebow or not, is with this game being played under the lights. Most teams would throw out stats like this, but with LSU it is a distinct advantage that cannot be coincidence, they have 32 consecutive wins on Saturday nights in Baton Rouge, while day games at Tiger Stadium they have lost regularly. For LSU to continue the streak the defense will have to continue dominating and Jordan Jefferson will need to control the ball and find his playmakers at receiver, LaFell and Terrance Toliver. For the Gators they will need to run the ball consistently to wear down the defense and keep their QB upright. On defense they would like to harass the young LSU QB into turnovers and sacks and turn any turnover into points. Nothing would surprise me in this game, LSU has as good a chance against Florida as any team this year, while Florida has had a week to prepare and could come out and dominate like last year. LSU would like to keep this low scoring and win on defense and special teams like last week. It will be college football at its finest on Saturday night in Death Valley, so make sure to cancel date night, return the movies to Blockbuster, take the kids to the babysitter and grab an ice-cold refreshment. You won’t want to miss this classic.

#3 Alabama @ #20 Ole Miss (+6)

Alabama: QB Greg McElroy, RB Mark Ingram, WR Julio Jones

Ole Miss: QB Jevan Snead, WR/RB Dexter McCluster, WR Shay Hodge

Alabama has been perhaps the most impressive team in the country thus far, while Ole Miss has not lived up to the preseason hype, losing at South Carolina a few weeks ago. Both teams have shown very strong defenses, while Alabama has scored at will on good competition. Led by new QB McElroy the Crimson Tide has rolled up over 34 points in each game. Ole Miss on the other hand has struggled with Houston Nutt’s offense and QB Snead has turned the ball over frequently. Alabama has dominated this series in wins with 5 in a row, but the last 4 have been decided by 3 or 4 points. This is the game the Rebels circled on their calendar as they must beat Alabama if they are to stake claim to the SEC West. Easier said than done. Playing the biggest home game since the Eli Manning days should give Ole Miss motivation to play their A game for the first time all year and they will need all aspects playing great to pull the upset. I expect the Rebel offense to pull out trick plays and gadgets that Houston Nutt is saving for this game. Alabama will play straight up as usual as they believe they are the better team. RB Mark Ingram is the player to watch on offense and WR Julio Jones is a game breaker for the Coach Nick Saban. This was a national spotlight game for Ole Miss before the loss and they will be ready to prove they can play with the Tide. See below for my pick.



Saturday Lox of the Week

Premium Lox

Kentucky @ #25 South Carolina (-9.5)

Steve Spurrier has his team playing great football with the only blemish a close loss at Georgia. The offense is balanced behind QB Stephen Garcia and the defense has been tremendous. Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky and I don’t expect that to change here. The Wildcats are off two tough losses to Florida and Alabama and now must travel with a banged up team. I expect South Carolina to jump on Kentucky early and hold on for the cover. Garcia should have a big game versus a weak secondary and the SC defense should play a big game after taking the week off vs. 1-AA South Carolina State last week. Spurrier is 9-5 as a home favorite since taking over at SC and should have no problem adding to it this week. PICK: South Carolina 31 – Kentucky 14

West Virginia (-10) @ Syracuse

Finally an opportunity to mention WVa. RB Noel Devine. He ranks among the best in the country with his breakaway speed, nifty moves and ability to find even the smallest openings in a defense. Similar to former Mountaineer Steve Slaton, Devine hits the hole quicker and can get into gear faster than any RB I have seen this year. He is small but not afraid of contact and should have no problem showing all his attributes against Syracuse. QB Jarrett Brown is also capable of great things since replacing Pat White at QB and the offense switching to a passing spread attack rather than the running spread option that White favored. Syracuse has not seen this kind of speed yet this year, even with having already faced Penn State and USF, and will have trouble stopping them at any point. I expect WR Jock Sanders to also have a big game receiving and the Mountaineers to open Big East play with a road victory. Syracuse should be able to move the ball and score points but they will be playing from behind all day and will not have enough to keep this close. WV is 17-10-1 this decade as road favorites, so take the Mountaineers and enjoy the running of Noel Devine. PICK: West Virginia 41 – Syracuse 24

Regular Lox

# 3 Alabama @ #20 Ole Miss (+6)

My first inclination tells me Alabama is the team ready to provide a statement to the rest of the SEC, but Houston Nutt is familiar with big upsets (wins over Florida last year, #1 LSU and #2 Auburn in 06 and 07 while at Arkansas) and this one would qualify. I think the experience in big games after last year’s surprise run and this year’s high expectations will provide Ole Miss an edge. They are a senior dominated team going against an inexperienced SEC QB playing on the road with many young stars. Alabama will also be without LB Dont’a Hightower after injuring his knee last week. Ole Miss is 12-5 against the spread over the last decade as home underdogs. Alabama may be the last one standing in the SEC West at the end of the year, but this game may be the one slip up. Watch RB McCluster line up in the backfield to get more touches for Ole Miss, something that produced big plays last year and the entire Rebel team to play their best game yet. Snead can quiet a lot of critics on Saturday with a big performance. PICK: Ole Miss 24 – Alabama 23

Georgia @ Tennessee (Under 46.5)

Georgia has shown to be Jekyll and Hyde this year on offense, with lackluster performances against OK State, Arizona State and LSU, while running up points versus South Carolina and Arkansas. Tennessee showed some chinks in its defensive armor last week when Auburn and its spread offense came to Knoxville, but I suspect the defense will get back to dominating against a pro-style offense like the Bulldogs. And while the Volunteer offense put up big yardage against Auburn they are still unable to put TDs on the board against good teams. The key here will be Georgia’s inability to run the ball and Monte Kiffin’s defense turning them one dimensional. If Georgia is forced to pass all game they will have trouble scoring points, just what LSU did to them last week. I expect another close game for both teams with Lane Kiffin having a chance to get a big home win. But the best bet here is the Under 46.5. PICK: Tennessee 21 – Georgia 20

Arizona (-3) @ Washington

I hate to go against the Huskies after their early season success, but after two tough road losses, the last one an excruciating OT loss, I expect the more talented Wildcats to have the edge. Stanford exposed the Huskies on the ground and Notre Dame did it through the air. Arizona has a punishing back in Nic Grigsby that will have his way like Toby Gerhardt did against the Washington D-line. It is hard to pick against the Huskies at home, where they will be happy to be back. But I think Mike Stoops has his team playing great, with the only loss at Iowa, and they showed they can win on the road two weeks ago in Corvallis. Arizona is 6-1 ATS at Washington since 1992. Jake Locker is the real deal and will do everything he can to keep the Huskies in this game, but a tired team will not be able to pull it off. PICK: Arizona 31 – Washington 23

Upset Specials

Indiana (+6.5) @ Virginia

Georgia Tech (+4.5) @ Florida State