Week 4 in Review

This last Saturday is what makes college football a special and unique sport. Four Top 10 teams lost, while another barely escaped after a goal line stand. The uncertainty week in and week out and the pressure that comes with each game being do or die is unique to Fall Saturdays. The NFL is special because any team can find a way to make the playoffs and ultimately win the Super Bowl, as the Giants proved as the lowest seeded team in the NFC beating the 18-0 Patriots. But in college football a team can’t afford to go on a losing streak or in some cases slip up for even a game. It is the only sport where each week can break your season and second chances are few.


After a Saturday like this it is a good time to look at what is right and wrong with the college football postseason and debunk the theory that we need a playoff to crown a champion. So instead of recapping some of the best games of the week and there were plenty to cover, I will make a case for the system currently in place, with a few tweaks that have been discussed before.

Playoff Or Bowl Games…You Can’t Have Both

The idea has circulated for a long time now, a college football tournament similar to March Madness where anybody has a shot to be crowned champion. Sports Illustrated even started a weekly look at a hypothetical 16 team playoff in its issue this week. Many more websites, magazines and “experts” have called for this playoff in the past and many will in the future. But the problem with all these suggestions is this: College Football as we know it would be ruined. How many people would truly care or bother to celebrate Washington’s tremendous upset of USC, or Iowa going to Happy Valley and knocking off Penn State? Would BYU’s upset of Oklahoma even made news outside of Provo? None of this would matter if a 16-team or even 8-team playoff was implemented in college football as all these teams would get a second chance and those losses would be forgotten by the following week. Some of the best games over the past decade would not have had the championship implications while the drama and enthusiasm would be sucked out of each Saturday in fall.

Think about the SEC championship last year. Undefeated Alabama and one loss Florida were matched up with a shot at the Title Game on the line. It was an emotional, hard fought, dramatic comeback victory for Florida that knocked the wind out of a great season in Tuscaloosa. But if there was a playoff following the season both teams would have already clinched a spot and they would have only been playing for seeding and pride.

Or what about the 2006 Ohio State – Michigan rivalry. Both were undefeated and #1-#2. The winner would be playing in the Title game and the loser would be relegated to hoping the voters kept them #2. A great game was played that day with Ohio State prevailing in a wild 42-39 finish. Ohio State went onto the Title game and Michigan was jumped in the polls by Florida. But the drama of 1 vs. 2 and the chance at the Title game would have been gone, because both teams would surely have qualified for a playoff that year.

Or think about USC and the Pac 10 over the past decade. Yes USC has dominated the league and won a record 7 straight conference titles, but have only played in the BCS Title Game twice thanks to a Pac 10 team pulling off an improbable upset each of the other years (Oregon State and Stanford come to mind). If a playoff existed these losses would have been virtually meaningless as USC would have been a high seeded playoff team each year with just as good a chance of winning a title. They would not have been penalized for those losses. That is the problem. The regular season would turn into college basketball’s regular season, which is to say nothing really matters until March.

The other issue with instituting a playoff would be the virtual elimination of Bowl Games. Yes they could still be played but would anyone care if #23 Illinois played #25 Arizona in the Rose Bowl. Not outside Tucson and Champaign. One of the great things about the sport as we know it is the build up all year to who goes to the Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl or any number of smaller bowls for conferences around the country. Cal has not been to a Rose Bowl since 1959, but with a playoff system their alumni would not even be rooting to make the Rose Bowl, they would be hoping to win a Pac 10 title so they could be in a playoff. Ugh.

Consider Stanford as well, their last Rose Bowl in 1999 was a special moment for the program, the alumni and fans. But what would have happened with a 16-team playoff since they were ranked 22nd at the end of the season? Would they be celebrating a shared Pac 10 title and a berth in a lower tier bowl? Would they have been chosen over a top 16 team because they won the Pac 10? Any way you look at it the playoff would not have brought the same joy and passion as making the Rose Bowl.

Also for lesser teams that have virtually no chance of winning a national championship the Bowl Games offer a reward for a great season, a chance to showcase your school and your football team to a new city and new fans. The middle of the road teams from power conferences and upper echelon teams from the small conferences have bowl games to work toward while a playoff would eliminate their chances of playing in a meaningful postseason.

Also think about Ball State or Boise State last year. These teams went undefeated in the regular season (Ball State lost in the MAC title game) and would have been rewarded with nothing. Ball State was not in the top 16 and Boise was on the edge of the BCS top 16, not guaranteeing anything.

Plus-One Format

The solution then in my mind is what has been mentioned before by BCS officials but ultimately denied: A plus-one format with the top 4 teams playing it out in BCS Bowls and the winners meeting in the Title Game. The Rose Bowl would feature #1 vs. #4 and the Fiesta Bowl #2 vs. #3 (the following year the Sugar and Orange Bowls would host). The winners then meet the following week at an alternating BCS site for the Title Game as they do now. The only thing that would change from the current format would be adding another BCS Bowl, possibly the Cotton Bowl (I can imagine Jerry Jones interest) or Holiday Bowl to keep the number of teams for the BCS at 10 and playing a semifinals and final between the top 4 teams.

All the other Bowl Games would stay the same and you would have 4 deserving teams given a chance instead of just 2. But raising that number any further to 8 or 16 would dilute the postseason, render the regular season much less meaningful and eliminate the excitement that fans all over the country have for their teams that are not in the top 16. Let’s face it, if your team loses two or more games like most #8-16 teams, they don’t deserve any chance at the Title.

The truly glaring weakness of the BCS has been picking between a #3 or 4 team that is as deserving as #2. I don’t think any team can truly argue they have deserved a shot at the Title while ranked #8 or 10 at the end of the year.

Recent History Shows it Would Work

Over the decade there were many deserving teams that were #3 or 4 that never got their chance. It was Texas last year that deserved a shot, they were #3 and had beaten #2 Oklahoma. It was undefeated Auburn that was left out in 2004 (also Utah that year was undefeated and #4). What a semifinal and final that could have been with all undefeated teams, USC – Utah and Oklahoma – Auburn, with the winners meeting the next week.

USC was left out of the BCS title game in 2003 but won the AP National Title while LSU beat Oklahoma in the BCS. The plus-one format would have featured USC and LSU a week later to crown a true champion. In 2001 Nebraska got a chance at Miami by rising to #2 in the nation after losing their final game and watching other teams lose after them, but Oregon and Colorado were both deserving of a chance and got left out. In the proposed format, Miami and Oregon would have played a week after destroying Nebraska and Colorado respectively in their bowl games. Even in 2000, Oklahoma was the only undefeated team and played one-loss Florida State in the title game. But FSU was lucky to beat out one-loss Miami and Washington that year. In 1998 it was undefeated Tennessee that beat one-loss FSU in the title, but one-loss Ohio State and Kansas State were left wondering what if it was us.

The fact is there is no easy solution to this question and the plus-one format would have years where it was unnecessary, like 2002 when there were just two undefeated teams, Miami and Ohio State, and they played an incredible overtime game. But for most of the time the BCS has been in the college football lexicon, a plus-one format of 4 finalists would have worked and crowned a true national champion; without dismantling what makes college football unique, exciting and something to endlessly discuss and argue about every Saturday in fall.

The one thing everyone can agree on is that the BCS as it is has to make changes and none is more obvious than getting rid of the Coaches Poll in their formula. It has become quite clear over the years that coaches don’t care to vote in this poll and if they do they don’t know what they are doing. Just this week the poll has undefeated Iowa below Penn State after the Hawkeyes beat PSU in Happy Valley and PSU has zero quality wins. It is absolutely atrocious that this poll counts in the BCS. Also, Cal stayed ahead of Oregon after the Ducks dismantled Cal’s season in a matter of quarters in Eugene. Again, Cal has beaten nobody ranked and Oregon’s only loss is to #5 Boise State. Explain that logic Coach.

It is time the BCS uses human polls conducted by professionals that don’t have to vote for and against their colleagues and themselves. Can you imagine the scenario at Penn State: Joe Paterno, who admits he does not even know any rankings throughout the course of a season, turns to his son and assistant coach Jay: “Son, fill out these rankings for me.” “Sure Dad, are we ahead of Iowa this week?” “Son, we’re always ahead of Iowa! And put Bowden in the top 25 too!”

Quick Thoughts On Week 4 Games

Oregon definitely crept back into the national conversation with a destruction of Cal that catapulted the teams in opposite directions. The Pac 10 looks wide open this year after USC’s loss and subsequent freak injury to their best offensive player Stafon Johnson. Many teams have legitimate hope of winning the conference at this early stage with Stanford, Arizona and Arizona State playing big games last weekend. The Cardinal dominated a Washington team off their big win, beating them by 20 and rushing at will all game. Toby Gerhardt has emerged as a top running back after rushing for 156 yards in the first half and 200 in the game. Arizona meanwhile won a close game in Corvallis and with Iowa’s win over Penn State looks like a serious threat, having played Iowa close in their only loss. Dennis Erickson took his Sun Devils team cross country to play Georgia between the hedges and almost pulled the big upset, coming up a field goal short. But they showed they are a team to be reckoned with. UCLA opens Pac 10 play this week in Stanford and USC visits Cal in a game of one-loss Pac 10 “powers.” Should be a fun year for Pac 10 football with USC seemingly the most vulnerable they have been in years.

SEC power LSU needed a goal-line stand to beat Mississippi State in a game they did not look good. Ranked #4 now they will be tested this week in Athens, Georgia and the following week vs. Florida. The team that has proven the most so far in the SEC is Alabama, as they continued their early dominance with an easy victory over Arkansas.

Parity has prevailed in the ACC once again as VT showed Miami they are still the team to beat and UNC was dominated by GT in a statement game. It looks like the conference will beat up on each other all year again, with VT still at the top of the pile for now. Look out though because VT is due for a slip up.

The Big 10 had two big games with only one of the favorites surviving. Ohio State dominated Illinois with their defense while Iowa beat Penn State and should be considered a big threat in that conference. Iowa would have to get by the next month to set up a mid-November matchup with Ohio State in Columbus that could be huge. Michigan barely survived an improving Indiana team that gets another shot at an upset this weekend vs. Ohio State. Another big development last week was Houston’s dramatic victory over Texas Tech that have Cougar fans talking BCS. With wins over two Big 12 powers and a game at Mississippi State, Houston has a chance to make waves in the BCS picture if they keep winning. Kevin Sumlin has done a tremendous job for Houston and will be a hot name in coaching circles this offseason.

Saturday Lox Week 3 in Review


Premium Lox

Week 4: 1-2

Overall: 5-10

Winners:

BYU (-17.5): 42-23

BYU cruised to an early 28-0 lead but Colorado State made bettors sweat as they got to within 11 points with a garbage TD. But after the onside kick BYU threw a TD pass on a third down and scored the points needed to cover the spread.

Losers:

Miami (-3.5): 7-31

The Hurricanes were dominated by Virginia Tech in a rain soaked game that definitely hurt Miami’s chances. Jacory Harris fumbled on the opening drive setting up a long day for Miami. Not yet over the hump the Hurricanes face Oklahoma this week in Miami. They need a bounce back game.

UNLV (-3): 27-30

Four turnovers and 3 field goals from inside the 10 yard line doomed UNLV’s chances. They fumbled three plays in and never looked back, throwing an interception in the end zone and then another in their own territory to set up Wyoming’s winning field goal. Another bad game to have money on, seems like I pick the worst games to lose.

Regular Lox

Week 4: 2-2

Overall: 6-7-1

Winners:

Florida (-22): 41-7

The Gators jumped on Kentucky early, leading 31-0 before Tebow had to leave the game with a concussion. The Gators showed their all around talent in Tebow’s absence and easily cruised to victory. Tebow seems on his way for recovery after a bye this week and LSU in Baton Rouge the week after.

Southern Miss (+13): 28-35

This was a fun game to watch as both offenses play exciting football and turnovers again were the big difference. Kansas recovered a fumble near their goal line and stopped SM on downs at the end of the half for two big turning points in their favor. If those plays go the other way Southern Miss would have left Lawrence, Kansas undefeated. But they held on for the cover so I am happy.

Losers:

Illinois (+14): 0-30

The Illini were intercepted in Ohio State territory on their first drive and then never put up a fight. A team I believe has all the offensive talent in the world has looked horrible in their big games. Time for Ron Zook to start winning with his top recruiting classes or he will be watching another coach win with his players, as Urban Meyer did at Florida.

Oregon State (-3): 32-37

Turnovers once again were the difference in this game as OSU struggled handling the ball and Arizona escaped with a big Pac 10 win. OSU outgained the Wildcats but turned it over twice and was sacked 5 times by Arizona’s defense.

Upset Specials

Week 4: 1-1 (outright upset)

Overall: 2-6 (outright upsets)

Marshall (+3) pulled the upset quite nicely over Memphis, led by sensational RB Darius Marshall. In the other upset special, Wake Forest (+3) forced OT with two fourth-quarter TD drives and held Boston College to a field goal in the first OT. But inside the 5 yard line going for the win, QB Riley Skinner was sacked and fumbled to lose the game. Another tough pill to swallow for a bettor on the money line.