Week 10 College Football

Saturday Lox Week 10


The first weekend of November brings the first of what is many conference deciding games. Champions will be separated from the contenders starting this weekend in Tuscaloosa with LSU and Alabama playing what is billed as the SEC West title game. Up North the Big 10 will play an elimination game of sorts when one-loss foes Ohio State and Penn State meet in Happy Valley. With a win here the Buckeyes have a chance to beat Iowa and claim the Big 10. Penn State needs to win here and hope they earn a BCS berth as a one-loss team.

A great rivalry is also renewed in Lincoln, Nebraska when the home team welcomes Oklahoma. In what used to be the Big 8’s greatest rivalry, the Cornhuskers look to stop a losing streak that dates back to 2001. Both teams have a lot to play for even with three losses each, with Nebraska trying to win the Big 12 North and the Sooners still a factor in the South. Should be a great game under the lights in Lincoln.

Farther out West is another test awaiting Oregon. Who would have thought the Ducks would be sitting pretty as Rose Bowl favorites after the week 1 implosion in Boise. But here they are, undefeated and ranked 8th in the BCS with only Arizona within a game of their lead. But Stanford has been looking forward to this game since a last second loss in Eugene last year and has a week to prepare (or more precisely a week of nightmares watching the USC film) for this home game. The last time Oregon won the Pac 10 in 2001 the only loss Joey Harrington and company endured was to Stanford after an onside kick led to a Cardinal comeback. That loss cost the Ducks a chance at the National Title game that season. Could history repeat itself this week and Stanford ruin the Ducks’ season once again. Yours truly will be in Palo Alto to find out. I expect a great offensive game and hopefully Stanford makes it one for the ages.

Premium Lox

Oregon State (+7) @ California

While the Bears have played well since the Oregon-USC losses, they barely got by ASU last week while the Beavers beat UCLA. I think the Beavers are equally as good and this game could go either way. Jahvid Best and Jacquizz Rodgers will be fun to watch on offense and eventually the overall talent of the Beavers will be the difference. PICK: Oregon State 34 – Cal 31

West Virginia (-17.5) vs. Louisville

With the Mountaineers coming off their first loss of Big East play to South Florida I expect them to be hungry and focused. Louisville has lost big to the good teams on their schedule and don’t have much left to play for. Jarrett Brown will throw all over the field and Noel Devine will run free and West Virginia should win easily. PICK: 35 – 13

Northwestern (+15.5) @ Iowa

Yes the Hawkeyes find ways to win each and every week. But after last week’s six turnover debacle they won’t be throwing the ball all over the field and will look to play ball control offense as usual. Northwestern has a knack for playing close games and Iowa has not blown anyone out this year. I see a low scoring game with Iowa holding on for their tenth win but Northwestern staying close. PICK: Iowa 23 – Northwestern 14

Regular Lox

Penn State (-5) vs. Ohio State

Terrelle Pryor returns to his home state and the school he shunned to go to Columbus. Penn State QB Darryl Clark is playing tremendous football and could be the Big 10 Player of the Year. The Nittany Lions will try to beat Ohio State for the second year in a row and this time have the home field edge, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record. I expect a close, low-scoring game for 3 quarters and Penn State pulling away in the fourth quarter behind the dual threat Clark. The defense will ultimately be the difference though as Pryor and company will struggle putting drives together and will be limited in big plays. PICK: Penn State 23 – Ohio State 13

Navy (+13) @ Notre Dame

The Midshipmen travel to South bend off a tough loss to Temple. They beat the Irish two years ago and made a big comeback before falling last year. Navy gets its QB Ricky Dobbs back for this game and he will make a big difference in leading the spread offense. Notre Dame will put up a lot of points but will give them up as well. Navy is an amazing 8-0 ATS at Notre Dame Stadium including the upset two years ago. Notre Dame also has not covered a spread as a favorite since the opening week win over Nevada. I like those odds and will take Navy to cover and keep the streak of Irish thrilling games intact. PICK: Notre Dame 37 – Navy 31

Wisconsin (-11) @ Indiana

I’m going with the Badgers two weeks in a row as I think this team is on a mission to prove the losses to Ohio State and Iowa were on them. Indiana had its own chance at the upset at Iowa last week but fell apart in the final period and lost bad. It was a demoralizing loss for a young, rebuilding program and they might not be focused enough to stop the bruising attack the Badgers will bring into Bloomington. I expect a lot of rushing yards from Wisconsin with Indiana not able to keep up on either side of the ball. PICK: Wisconsin 35 – Indiana 13

Upset Special

Kansas State (+3) over Kansas

I like Kansas State at home over a Jayhawk team that is reeling. Kansas State leads the Big 12 North and has a chance to take a commanding advantage with an upset here and a Nebraska loss to Oklahoma. This game might not show up on the national radar but nothing is bigger in Kansas right now. A rivalry dominated by Kansas State over the years but recently by Mark Mangino and Kansas, we’ll see if Bill Snyder brings a win back to Manhattan, KS.