College Football Week 13

After last week’s 4-2 record, the Saturday Lox has crept close to breaking even. With just two weeks left before the bowls five wins are needed to be in positive territory. It has been a tricky year of handicapping the college football world and I suspect Thanksgiving weekend will bring more of the same. There will be upsets in rivalry games and I finally believe the top 5 in the poll will be tested and one of the undefeated teams could fall. Texas took all they could handle from Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night and as I write this Auburn leads Alabama 7-0 and just recovered an onside kick early in the game. Like Auburn and Coach Gene Chizik is showing in this game rivalries bring out all the trick plays and all the gambles a coach can think of. Besides the Tide being tested, I believe Florida and Boise State will see the best effort possible from talented and tough teams. See below for my pick on Boise State – Nevada and plenty of the best games college football has to offer to go with leftover turkey and stuffing. There is no better two days to watch football than the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving. Sit back, relax, grab a cold turkey sandwich and enjoy the assortment of games with national intrigue, regional hatred, and coaches fighting to save their jobs or simply filling the required weeks before termination. Charlie Weis fits in one of those categories, only the boosters writing the checks for Touchdown Jesus know which one.

Saturday Lox of the Week

Premium Lox

UCLA (+13) @ USC

The Trojans had a week off to stew over the loss to Stanford while UCLA has won 3 in a row after starting 0-5 in the Pac 10. USC has dominated this city rivalry in the last decade but UCLA did pull off the upset three years ago to ruin the Trojans’ chance at the National Championship. I think the Bruins’ defense is good enough to keep them in the game but the offense will need to score to win, unlike last week when the offense failed to score a TD but they beat ASU. I would not be surprised at the upset but will not call for it, take the points though and hope USC did not find their offense in the bye week. PICK: USC 24 – UCLA 16

Pittsburgh (Pick) @ West Virginia – Friday

“The Backyard Brawl” is as intense a rivalry that exists in the country. Pittsburgh ruined West Virginia’s National Championship hopes two years ago and led to the exit of Rich Rodriguez to Michigan. This year it is the opposite with the Mountaineers playing the spoiler against one-loss Pittsburgh which has a bigger game on deck against Cincinnati. They will not overlook their hated rivals here and even on the road I expect Dave Wannstedt to lead his team to victory. RB Dion Lewis for Pitt and Noel Devine for WV should put on a show and this could come down to which QB plays better, Bill Stull or Jarrett Brown. Pitt has won two in a row and hasn’t won 3 in a row in the series since 1982. I’ll call for them to win on the road and set up a showdown for the Big East next week. PICK: Pittsburgh 31 – West Virginia 28

Georgia @ Georgia Tech (-7.5)

Last year’s upset by Tech on the road solidified Paul Johnson as head coach and vaulted the Yellow Jackets into their one-loss season and ACC Coastal title. Tech has dominated most every opponent but needed overtime in a surprise scare by Wake Forest. Georgia has struggled against the best competition on their schedule and then last week were upset by Kentucky. After a week off I expect Tech to take down Georgia before the ACC Championship rematch against Clemson. Paul Johnson’s triple option offense has evolved this year with QB Jonathan Dwyer gaining more experience and more polish on his passing game. Look for big games from all facets of the Tech offense. PICK Georgia Tech 38 – Georgia 28

Regular Lox

Nevada (+13.5) @ Boise State – Friday

Even though Boise State has won 9 in a row in this series the last two were close including 66-64 in 4 overtimes last time on the Blue Turf. Nevada has won 7 in a row after starting the season with 3 straight losses. The winner of this game is the WAC Champion and Boise is obviously playing for more with hopes of a BCS berth. Nevada will play this game close I expect with the game decided in the fourth quarter. Nevada leads the nation in rushing and with three 1,000 yard rushers like to spread the ball around. We’ll see if Boise can stop a great offense after the opening week win over Oregon and their vaunted offense. Boise needs to make a statement to get the BCS to look their way, but Nevada should give them a tough game. PICK: Boise State 42 – Nevada 34

Notre Dame @ Stanford (Over 63)

I will be in the stands to watch this game as Stanford looks to bounce back after their crushing loss in the Big Game to Cal last week while Notre Dame will get one last chance to watch Charlie Weis coach the team. With both team’s strength their offense I expect this to be a high scoring game with Toby Gerhart running for over 200 yards and a few TDs and Andrew Luck having a good game after last week’s disaster. Jimmy Clausen might not come back to the Irish with his stock in the draft sure to be high and students taking cheap shots at him in local bars (if you haven’t heard Clausen was “coldcocked” in a South Bend bar following the loss to UCONN Saturday night). The Irish always keep games close and this will be no different as the Cardinal will not be able to stop the passing game and WR Golden Tate, but I think the Cardinal get the win knowing they need it to attract an upper tier Pac 10 bowl. But the best bet here is a high scoring affair and the Over. PICK: Stanford 41 – Notre Dame 33

Arizona (-4) @ Arizona State

The Wildcats have lost two straight including last week’s heartbreaker in 2 overtimes when a shot at the Rose Bowl was on the line. Now they are playing not to drop into the lower half of the Pac 10. The Sun Devils can spoil their rivals’ season with a home upset but have not looked capable on offense of scoring enough points. I expect Arizona to bounce back and beat their rival before a big game against USC next week. PICK: Arizona 27 – Arizona State 20

Upsets

South Carolina (+3.5, +135) over Clemson

This rivalry has been dominated by Clemson and it was the blowout of South Carolina last year that clinched the head coaching job for Dabo Swinney. South Carolina has lost three in a row while Clemson has won 6 in a row after their humbling home loss to Maryland. Clemson will play in the ACC Championship next Saturday and with that in mind and the Gamecocks needing this win to avoid playing in a lower tier SEC bowl I think the talent is close enough to call for an upset. PICK: South Carolina 23 – Clemson 21