2010 Is Upon Us: Week 1

College Football 2010


The 2010 season is upon us after a rollercoaster offseason that led the sport to the brink of unimaginable change and then back off the ledge. So what better way to celebrate than running to the ATM, taking out a stack of $20s that was meant for groceries for the next month and asking directions to the nearest Sports Book. I know for me that is a sure sign Labor Day is upon us.

I set out last year with the goal of giving the legions of college football fans an edge when it comes to knowledge of the games and more importantly handicapping those games. Although I was successful in one way, giving out said knowledge, it was not the success I strive for, beating the Vegas oddsmakers. Let’s just say I would have been the guy sweating out whether I get my room comped at the Holiday Inn, not the guy being given the keys to a Presidential Suite at the Bellagio.

So this year the goal will be higher. No more mediocrity for the Saturday Lox. No more waiting in the discount buffet line because SMU didn’t cover, we are heading straight to the VIP line this year. No more sweating the final score of the Akron-Bowling Green game or hoping New Mexico State runs up the score on San Jose State. Those games don’t lead to the Penthouse, they lead to Gambler’s Anonymous meetings.

Saturday Lox exists for one reason, ironically the same as the NCAA and BCS: Make as much money off others as you can while saying you are doing it for the good of others. So jump on the bandwagon, find your nearest casino, bookie or Western Union (sending money to an offshore account in the Cayman Islands has never been easier!) and let the Games begin.

There are only a few sure things in life: Death, Taxes and cursing at the TV because the damn kicker missed the extra point that cost you the spread. Good luck everyone and enjoy.


Week 1 Lox

Western Michigan (+24.5) @ Michigan State

Okay, so the Broncos from Kalamazoo don’t exactly have the cache to get me in free at Tao Beach nightclub (The club Lebron reportedly celebrated at by only allowing waitresses wearing his jersey to serve him, and when I say his jersey that is all they were wearing), but it’s not a bad start. Western Michigan is the favorite in the MAC this year and Michigan State will be breaking in 4 new starters on the offensive line. Last year the Spartans lost to Central Michigan 29-27 in week 2 as 14-point home favorites. This year Western Michigan should be able to keep it close enough to cover the 24 points.

Northwestern (-4) @ Vanderbilt

Coming off a 2-10 season the Commodores don’t have much to look forward to, at least in football (this might be a good matchup in debate!). Northwestern on the other hand has been to two straight bowl games, losing both in overtime, but are looking up in the Big Ten. The Wildcats went 4-1 last year on he road ATS (against the spread), including wins at Purdue, at Iowa (#8) and at Illinois. This team doesn’t mind playing away from Chicago (or Evanston to be exact) and are the more talented team. Look for Northwestern to break in their new QB with at least a touchdown victory.

Purdue (+11) @ Notre Dame

As much confidence Notre Dame should rightfully possess with Brian Kelly now at the helm, I think Vegas again overvalues this team. It is a case of much more money flowing into the Irish side in Vegas that makes the line artificially high. Purdue is a decent team that possesses enough talent to have upset Ohio State last year. More importantly the new QB is Robert Marve, a transfer from Miami who many say has more talent than Jacory Harris, who beat him out for the job at the U. He could become the next in a great line of Boilermaker QBs (Drew Brees tops the list) and his first start will come under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus. Notre Dame will be much improved most likely but won’t put it together week 1 and will struggle enough to make this a close game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdue has a shot to spoil Kelly’s debut late in this game. The Irish won this matchup last year with a TD with 20 seconds left.

Kentucky (-3) @ Louisville

This isn’t exactly Rick Pitino vs. John Calipari or Rick Pitino vs. Denny Crum, whichever stint of Pitino you choose to remember, but it still stokes some animosity across the Commonwealth. Kentucky has won 3 straight and now the torch is passed to new head coach Joker Phillips. If the Wildcats’ new offensive line holds up, the skill positions will be very good. Fellow rookie head coach Charlie Strong, Florida’s old defensive coordinator, has to break in 7 new starters on defense and it won’t be an easy start. Both fan bases are hungry to elevate their football programs and it starts with this rivalry.

Washington @ BYU (Over 57)

Jake Locker will look for revenge in two forms on Saturday, one against the opposing team, the other against the officials. It was Locker’s “celebration” penalty after scoring what he thought was the tying TD against BYU two years ago that led to the blocked extra point and the loss. It was a terrible call that started the downward spiral of the eventual 0-12 season. The Huskies should be much improved though after taking a step up last year under head coach Steve Sarkisian. Interestingly, it was the Huskies that prevented Sarkisian from going undefeated in his finest season as the QB at BYU, losing at Husky Stadium in a blowout, BYU’s only loss that year. With 18 starters back including 10 on offense, Sarkisian has himself a potent offense. BYU will be rotating two QBs to start but have never had a problem on offense. Both these teams are capable of fireworks on offense so I expect a shootout and whoever has the ball last may ultimately prevail.

North Carolina vs. LSU (-8) in Atlanta

The Agency or The Tutor. For the Tar Heels’ athletic director he is going to hear about two things for as many years as he has his job in Chapel Hill. That is the agency that is mixed up in a scandal with some of the top talent on UNC and the tutor who is now at the center of an academic investigation into the UNC athletic family. Roy Williams please step to the microphone you’re never shy about speaking up.

Going back to the game, this is the Chick Fil A Kickoff in Atlanta that pits a top ACC and SEC team to start the season. The SEC has dominated in the past and with the talent missing on the Tar Heels, including DE Marvin Austin and WR Greg Little, I expect LSU to keep the streak intact. I would have initially thought betting the under (44) was the safe play, I now expect QB Jordan Jefferson to shine, with Russell Shepard (last year’s top HS QB recruit) playing a big part in the passing game alongside Terrance Tolliver. UNC still has the team to compete and win this game, but ultimately the Bayou Bengals will be the team celebrating in Atlanta.


Other important games this week include TCU and Oregon State in Cowboys Stadium. I was surprised to see TCU favored by 13, but looking at Oregon State’s history with road games in September, let’s just say really bad, and TCU looking at repeating last year’s BCS party (right up until the flat loss to Boise) with their entire offense back, I can understand the big spread. OSU also has a history of having less success in a QB’s first season. So it will be up to the Rodgers brothers to keep the Beavers in this game. It would be big for the Pac 10 to go into Texas and beat a heavily favored MWC team. But the experts say it’s a long shot.

Not much else on the schedule Saturday worth discussing. Check back before Monday for the Game of the Week, Boise State and Virginia Tech.