College Football 2010 Week 4
Overall Record – 5-5-1
The Saturday Lox is even money heading into the final weekend of September. After a week off to spend some time with the nephew in sunny Seattle (not so for the Huskies last weekend though), all 9 pounds of him (rumor had it Steve Sarkisian had an associate knocking on the door the next day to start recruitment), it is time to get back to business and make some money before the calendar turns. In commemoration of Jackson Robert, a combining of the two greatest Confederate Generals in the Civil War, Andrew “Stonewall” Jackson and Robert E. Lee, I decided to start the Lox with a few matchups where you’ll still spot Old Dixie flying from the back of a pickup and there is always enough Whisky drinking to turn back time.
Georgia (-1) @ Mississippi State
Mark Richt brings the Georgia Bulldogs to Starksville off a tough loss to Arkansas and 0-2 in the SEC. Georgia’s record is startling off 2 consecutive losses, 13-1 ATS and they will be desperate for a win with rumors swirling about Richt’s job security. Miss. State is also 0-2 with a tough home loss to Auburn and a crushing road loss to LSU last week. I believe UGA is the better team and RB Washaun Ealey will be the difference. Georgia fans will be happily partying with their Red hats and Red Polos well into the night.
Alabama (-7) @ Arkansas
The Crimson Tide takes their winning streak on the road against #10 Arkansas. The Razorbacks barely survived Athens, GA last week but come in confident and with a hot hand in Ryan Mallet at QB. Alabama has a prolific offense themselves and will prove to be too much with the tandem of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson in the backfield and McElroy throwing to Julio Jones. The defense will prove to be the difference with Alabama forcing turnovers and sealing their SEC opener.
North Carolina (-2) @ Rutgers
Sticking with the southern theme, the Tar Heels travel north to New Jersey. UNC has had two tough losses, LSU to start and Georgia Tech last week, not to mention the suspensions and eligibility issues. Rutgers has struggled in two wins against lowly competition so they will take a big step up in talent on Saturday. Expect the Tar Heels to either take some frustration out on the Scarlet Knights, or bring a lackluster effort. Butch Davis usually has his team prepared and with the announcement this week finalizing the player issues, maybe the team can get back to normal. UNC was highly thought of in preseason so they have the talent to begin to bounce back this season.
Oregon State @ Boise State – Over 56
I learned my lesson to never bet against Boise after they came back and beat Va Tech to open the season. Chris Peterson just seems to know how to win every big game. So even though I think the spread, 18, is too high, I vowed I won’t lose money betting Boise’s opponent. So next best thing, take the over. Oregon State has much talent with the Rodgers Brothers and they can definitely put enough points up to scare the Broncos. I doubt they will stop them though, considering Louisville put 28 on the Beavers in Corvallis last week. Take the over and enjoy the game.
Stanford (-4.5) @ Notre Dame
Something’s gotta give in this game. The Irish have lost 10 straight to ranked opponents, while Stanford has lost 7 straight in South Bend. Stanford is playing at a high level and for the first time in memory has a defense that can hold its own. They will need to on Saturday as Dayne Crist will attempt to throw the ball to victory. The Cardinal is more talented and better coached and will be ready to end the losing streak under Touchdown Jesus. Harbaugh deserves national recognition for his team and no better way to get noticed than on NBC. This could be Andrew Luck’s coming out party, as we saw Denard Robinson light up ND with his arm and legs, look for Luck to do the same.
California @ Arizona (-7)
These teams ended last week feeling very different than they started. Cal had two blowout wins before stumbling in Reno as Nevada ran up the score in a Friday night massacre. Arizona entered the weekend looking for legitimacy and found it after upsetting Iowa. Zona Zoo had to sweat out a late comeback by the Hawkeyes before Nick Foles put together the game winning drive. Arizona is a tremendous home team and with revenge on their minds after Cal upset their Rose Bowl chances a year ago, I believe the Wildcats will send the Bears home limping. Cal’s strength is their running game and Arizona has proven to be stingy with their run defense, if that continues only Arizona could beat themselves.
Oregon (-13) @ Arizona State
Up the road in Tempe, ASU is coming off a great effort in a loss to Wisconsin. Nobody gave them much of a chance on the road in Big 10 country, but a blocked extra point was the difference between a loss and OT. But ASU matches up with the Badgers, not so much against the Ducks. Oregon will look to continue their run in the Pac 10 after last year’s Rose Bowl trip and they should get it done this week no problem. Darron Thomas, LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner are as scary a triumvirate in the country and will be on full display under the desert sun. ASU just can’t score enough points to stay in a game with the Ducks.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Saturday, September 11, 2010
College Football 2010 Week 2
Week 1 Record – 2-3-1 ATS
Covers: Kentucky (-3), Western Michigan (+24.5, glad I had that extra half point)
Losses: Northwestern (-4), LSU (-8), BYU-UW (Over 57)
Push: Purdue (+11)
Although a 2-3-1 record won’t lead to bankruptcy court it doesn’t make you any money either. Needing a half point for a W. Michigan cover and watching an ugly Purdue-Notre Dame game end in a push left me in a bad mood heading into the evening. LSU taking a 30-10 lead brought out the smiles and laughs, but in typical Les Miles fashion the Tigers didn’t hold up well late in the game and almost blew the entire game. I wish they did, why should Miles be able to say “at least we got a win,” when bettors around the nation have to stomach their lackluster effort. Anytime the Tigers want to take the field in the second half I’ll be ready to watch.
Week 2 promises to bring more excitement and definite big money games to Vegas. The slate will keep the sports books busy from morning until night. Here are the Saturday Lox for week 2 and some commentary on the other best games of the week.
Georgia @ South Carolina (-3)
This game would be much easier to bet if it was under 3, but I believe this is the year Steve Spurrier takes some wins away from the Florida-Georgia domination of the SEC West. They had a good start on the opening Thursday, but have the cloud of suspicion around campus because of NCAA investigations. Georgia has its own problems with top talent WR AJ Green suspended the first month of the season for selling a game worn jersey on Ebay. Shouldn’t either A) a player better conceal selling merchandise on the internet or B) he better have been selling a lot more and they only caught him on this one, I mean shoot if you get caught on the first jersey you sell, that is just bad. Anyway I see Spurrier getting it done at home and giving the Columbia, SC faithful much to look forward to in 2010.
Colorado (+10) @ California
Although the teams may have a dislike for one another it wouldn’t surprise if drum circles and peace pipes were spotted in shared sections of the crowd. Berkeley and Boulder are the equivalent of Mecca and Medina for hippies. This will be a love fest in the city but a hard fought game that I expect Colorado to hang with Cal and even have a chance late to pull the upset. The Buffaloes looked good week 1 in their quest to keep Dan Hawkins’ job. Cal also showed up big time with a 52-3 win over FBS UC Davis. This is a preview of the expanded Pac 10 and will give Colorado their first taste of recruiting in California as a Pac 12 member. In fact their California brethren are already bringing out the welcome mat. Reports surfaced that VW busses have been granted a zoning ordinance for the weekend to allow owners to live out of their vehicles on public property within city limits. Ticket sales from Boulder shot up with the announcement. Tailgating at its best.
Michigan (+3) @ Notre Dame
This pick is simply because I think if Michigan plays up to potential they should win this game. Rich Rodriguez has found his QB in Denard Robinson, who fits his spread offense as good as anyone but Pat White. They have to keep him upright and use his arm as much as possible, but I believe the road won’t bother this team and if Michigan shows up as they did last week vs. UConn they will not only cover but win this game.
Miami (+8) @ Ohio State
The only thing left for Cleveland and Ohioans to endure is for Lebron to inflict harm on their state institution, the Ohio State University football team. Being close enough to QB Terrelle Pryor and also with Tressell for the sweater vest coach to issue a statement inviting Lebron to the game, all these fans need to endure now is for Lebron to jinx their team. Not like when he wore a Yankees hat to the playoffs in Cleveland, Lebron will be decked out in Buckeye gear, but regardless the jinx is on, Ohio State will lose (or at least Miami will cover). This could come down to which QB has a better game, Lebron’s new hometown team, led by Jacory Harris or his protégé back in Ohio (not even Akron, where’s the love for the Zips football team), Pryor. My guess is Harris is good enough to keep it close and maybe put Miami back in the National Title talk.
Oregon (-13) @ Tennessee
This one is fairly simple. Both teams shut out opponents week 1, Oregon 72-0 over New Mexico and UT 50-0 over UT Martin. The Volunteers though will be overmatched against an Oregon offense that returns their best player after suspension last week. LaMichael James will join Kenjon Barner and new QB Darron Thomas in wearing out a young Tennessee defense. But the Oregon defense may actually prove to be the difference. An inexperienced UT offense will get its first true test against a fierce unit from Oregon, don’t look for the Vols to generate much on the scoreboard. Oregon might sputter out of the gate getting used to Neyland Stadium’s 100,000 plus fans, but eventually they will get Chip Kelly’s machine rolling and have no problem in Knoxville.
Florida State @ Oklahoma (-7) is another big game on the schedule. The Sooners barely escaped an upset from Utah State while Jimbo Fisher made his debut in Tallahassee a success with a whooping of Samford. Both teams will get tested in this one and while FSU is 7-point underdogs the fans will want an early statement victory in the new regime and they believe they can get it after watching OU last week. Brotherly love will be on display with Mark Stoops the new defensive coordinator at FSU against his brother Bob at OU.
Penn State @ Alabama (-13) will be a test for the defending National Champs. Without Heisman winner Ingram and defensive leader Marcel Dareus Penn State has to feel they have a chance in the deep south. But the Tide will be out to make a statement that they are better than anyone no matter who is on the sideline. I lean towards Alabama as I do believe their offense won’t miss a beat. If the defense holds up it might be a long day for a young Penn State team.
Stanford @ UCLA (+6) is an early season crucial matchup in the Pac 10. The Cardinal come in favored but having lost 6 straight at the Rose Bowl. They did win this game last year at home and enter with a lot of confidence. If UCLA can’t keep Kansas State under 30 points they better hope they find their defense at home under the lights. Andrew Luck given time will put up big numbers. If the o-line protects him and they get a decent running game, Luck should find holes in a great UCLA secondary. If the UCLA defense pressures Luck it could be a long night for Jim Harbaugh. UCLA though will need to find their offense, while. Stanford’s defense has a lot to prove as a unit. They could end up deciding this game though with some big plays against a turnover prone offense. I lean towards the Cardinal but hesitate because of past history.
Covers: Kentucky (-3), Western Michigan (+24.5, glad I had that extra half point)
Losses: Northwestern (-4), LSU (-8), BYU-UW (Over 57)
Push: Purdue (+11)
Although a 2-3-1 record won’t lead to bankruptcy court it doesn’t make you any money either. Needing a half point for a W. Michigan cover and watching an ugly Purdue-Notre Dame game end in a push left me in a bad mood heading into the evening. LSU taking a 30-10 lead brought out the smiles and laughs, but in typical Les Miles fashion the Tigers didn’t hold up well late in the game and almost blew the entire game. I wish they did, why should Miles be able to say “at least we got a win,” when bettors around the nation have to stomach their lackluster effort. Anytime the Tigers want to take the field in the second half I’ll be ready to watch.
Week 2 promises to bring more excitement and definite big money games to Vegas. The slate will keep the sports books busy from morning until night. Here are the Saturday Lox for week 2 and some commentary on the other best games of the week.
Georgia @ South Carolina (-3)
This game would be much easier to bet if it was under 3, but I believe this is the year Steve Spurrier takes some wins away from the Florida-Georgia domination of the SEC West. They had a good start on the opening Thursday, but have the cloud of suspicion around campus because of NCAA investigations. Georgia has its own problems with top talent WR AJ Green suspended the first month of the season for selling a game worn jersey on Ebay. Shouldn’t either A) a player better conceal selling merchandise on the internet or B) he better have been selling a lot more and they only caught him on this one, I mean shoot if you get caught on the first jersey you sell, that is just bad. Anyway I see Spurrier getting it done at home and giving the Columbia, SC faithful much to look forward to in 2010.
Colorado (+10) @ California
Although the teams may have a dislike for one another it wouldn’t surprise if drum circles and peace pipes were spotted in shared sections of the crowd. Berkeley and Boulder are the equivalent of Mecca and Medina for hippies. This will be a love fest in the city but a hard fought game that I expect Colorado to hang with Cal and even have a chance late to pull the upset. The Buffaloes looked good week 1 in their quest to keep Dan Hawkins’ job. Cal also showed up big time with a 52-3 win over FBS UC Davis. This is a preview of the expanded Pac 10 and will give Colorado their first taste of recruiting in California as a Pac 12 member. In fact their California brethren are already bringing out the welcome mat. Reports surfaced that VW busses have been granted a zoning ordinance for the weekend to allow owners to live out of their vehicles on public property within city limits. Ticket sales from Boulder shot up with the announcement. Tailgating at its best.
Michigan (+3) @ Notre Dame
This pick is simply because I think if Michigan plays up to potential they should win this game. Rich Rodriguez has found his QB in Denard Robinson, who fits his spread offense as good as anyone but Pat White. They have to keep him upright and use his arm as much as possible, but I believe the road won’t bother this team and if Michigan shows up as they did last week vs. UConn they will not only cover but win this game.
Miami (+8) @ Ohio State
The only thing left for Cleveland and Ohioans to endure is for Lebron to inflict harm on their state institution, the Ohio State University football team. Being close enough to QB Terrelle Pryor and also with Tressell for the sweater vest coach to issue a statement inviting Lebron to the game, all these fans need to endure now is for Lebron to jinx their team. Not like when he wore a Yankees hat to the playoffs in Cleveland, Lebron will be decked out in Buckeye gear, but regardless the jinx is on, Ohio State will lose (or at least Miami will cover). This could come down to which QB has a better game, Lebron’s new hometown team, led by Jacory Harris or his protégé back in Ohio (not even Akron, where’s the love for the Zips football team), Pryor. My guess is Harris is good enough to keep it close and maybe put Miami back in the National Title talk.
Oregon (-13) @ Tennessee
This one is fairly simple. Both teams shut out opponents week 1, Oregon 72-0 over New Mexico and UT 50-0 over UT Martin. The Volunteers though will be overmatched against an Oregon offense that returns their best player after suspension last week. LaMichael James will join Kenjon Barner and new QB Darron Thomas in wearing out a young Tennessee defense. But the Oregon defense may actually prove to be the difference. An inexperienced UT offense will get its first true test against a fierce unit from Oregon, don’t look for the Vols to generate much on the scoreboard. Oregon might sputter out of the gate getting used to Neyland Stadium’s 100,000 plus fans, but eventually they will get Chip Kelly’s machine rolling and have no problem in Knoxville.
Florida State @ Oklahoma (-7) is another big game on the schedule. The Sooners barely escaped an upset from Utah State while Jimbo Fisher made his debut in Tallahassee a success with a whooping of Samford. Both teams will get tested in this one and while FSU is 7-point underdogs the fans will want an early statement victory in the new regime and they believe they can get it after watching OU last week. Brotherly love will be on display with Mark Stoops the new defensive coordinator at FSU against his brother Bob at OU.
Penn State @ Alabama (-13) will be a test for the defending National Champs. Without Heisman winner Ingram and defensive leader Marcel Dareus Penn State has to feel they have a chance in the deep south. But the Tide will be out to make a statement that they are better than anyone no matter who is on the sideline. I lean towards Alabama as I do believe their offense won’t miss a beat. If the defense holds up it might be a long day for a young Penn State team.
Stanford @ UCLA (+6) is an early season crucial matchup in the Pac 10. The Cardinal come in favored but having lost 6 straight at the Rose Bowl. They did win this game last year at home and enter with a lot of confidence. If UCLA can’t keep Kansas State under 30 points they better hope they find their defense at home under the lights. Andrew Luck given time will put up big numbers. If the o-line protects him and they get a decent running game, Luck should find holes in a great UCLA secondary. If the UCLA defense pressures Luck it could be a long night for Jim Harbaugh. UCLA though will need to find their offense, while. Stanford’s defense has a lot to prove as a unit. They could end up deciding this game though with some big plays against a turnover prone offense. I lean towards the Cardinal but hesitate because of past history.
Friday, September 3, 2010
2010 Is Upon Us: Week 1
College Football 2010
The 2010 season is upon us after a rollercoaster offseason that led the sport to the brink of unimaginable change and then back off the ledge. So what better way to celebrate than running to the ATM, taking out a stack of $20s that was meant for groceries for the next month and asking directions to the nearest Sports Book. I know for me that is a sure sign Labor Day is upon us.
I set out last year with the goal of giving the legions of college football fans an edge when it comes to knowledge of the games and more importantly handicapping those games. Although I was successful in one way, giving out said knowledge, it was not the success I strive for, beating the Vegas oddsmakers. Let’s just say I would have been the guy sweating out whether I get my room comped at the Holiday Inn, not the guy being given the keys to a Presidential Suite at the Bellagio.
So this year the goal will be higher. No more mediocrity for the Saturday Lox. No more waiting in the discount buffet line because SMU didn’t cover, we are heading straight to the VIP line this year. No more sweating the final score of the Akron-Bowling Green game or hoping New Mexico State runs up the score on San Jose State. Those games don’t lead to the Penthouse, they lead to Gambler’s Anonymous meetings.
Saturday Lox exists for one reason, ironically the same as the NCAA and BCS: Make as much money off others as you can while saying you are doing it for the good of others. So jump on the bandwagon, find your nearest casino, bookie or Western Union (sending money to an offshore account in the Cayman Islands has never been easier!) and let the Games begin.
There are only a few sure things in life: Death, Taxes and cursing at the TV because the damn kicker missed the extra point that cost you the spread. Good luck everyone and enjoy.
Week 1 Lox
Western Michigan (+24.5) @ Michigan State
Okay, so the Broncos from Kalamazoo don’t exactly have the cache to get me in free at Tao Beach nightclub (The club Lebron reportedly celebrated at by only allowing waitresses wearing his jersey to serve him, and when I say his jersey that is all they were wearing), but it’s not a bad start. Western Michigan is the favorite in the MAC this year and Michigan State will be breaking in 4 new starters on the offensive line. Last year the Spartans lost to Central Michigan 29-27 in week 2 as 14-point home favorites. This year Western Michigan should be able to keep it close enough to cover the 24 points.
Northwestern (-4) @ Vanderbilt
Coming off a 2-10 season the Commodores don’t have much to look forward to, at least in football (this might be a good matchup in debate!). Northwestern on the other hand has been to two straight bowl games, losing both in overtime, but are looking up in the Big Ten. The Wildcats went 4-1 last year on he road ATS (against the spread), including wins at Purdue, at Iowa (#8) and at Illinois. This team doesn’t mind playing away from Chicago (or Evanston to be exact) and are the more talented team. Look for Northwestern to break in their new QB with at least a touchdown victory.
Purdue (+11) @ Notre Dame
As much confidence Notre Dame should rightfully possess with Brian Kelly now at the helm, I think Vegas again overvalues this team. It is a case of much more money flowing into the Irish side in Vegas that makes the line artificially high. Purdue is a decent team that possesses enough talent to have upset Ohio State last year. More importantly the new QB is Robert Marve, a transfer from Miami who many say has more talent than Jacory Harris, who beat him out for the job at the U. He could become the next in a great line of Boilermaker QBs (Drew Brees tops the list) and his first start will come under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus. Notre Dame will be much improved most likely but won’t put it together week 1 and will struggle enough to make this a close game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdue has a shot to spoil Kelly’s debut late in this game. The Irish won this matchup last year with a TD with 20 seconds left.
Kentucky (-3) @ Louisville
This isn’t exactly Rick Pitino vs. John Calipari or Rick Pitino vs. Denny Crum, whichever stint of Pitino you choose to remember, but it still stokes some animosity across the Commonwealth. Kentucky has won 3 straight and now the torch is passed to new head coach Joker Phillips. If the Wildcats’ new offensive line holds up, the skill positions will be very good. Fellow rookie head coach Charlie Strong, Florida’s old defensive coordinator, has to break in 7 new starters on defense and it won’t be an easy start. Both fan bases are hungry to elevate their football programs and it starts with this rivalry.
Washington @ BYU (Over 57)
Jake Locker will look for revenge in two forms on Saturday, one against the opposing team, the other against the officials. It was Locker’s “celebration” penalty after scoring what he thought was the tying TD against BYU two years ago that led to the blocked extra point and the loss. It was a terrible call that started the downward spiral of the eventual 0-12 season. The Huskies should be much improved though after taking a step up last year under head coach Steve Sarkisian. Interestingly, it was the Huskies that prevented Sarkisian from going undefeated in his finest season as the QB at BYU, losing at Husky Stadium in a blowout, BYU’s only loss that year. With 18 starters back including 10 on offense, Sarkisian has himself a potent offense. BYU will be rotating two QBs to start but have never had a problem on offense. Both these teams are capable of fireworks on offense so I expect a shootout and whoever has the ball last may ultimately prevail.
North Carolina vs. LSU (-8) in Atlanta
The Agency or The Tutor. For the Tar Heels’ athletic director he is going to hear about two things for as many years as he has his job in Chapel Hill. That is the agency that is mixed up in a scandal with some of the top talent on UNC and the tutor who is now at the center of an academic investigation into the UNC athletic family. Roy Williams please step to the microphone you’re never shy about speaking up.
Going back to the game, this is the Chick Fil A Kickoff in Atlanta that pits a top ACC and SEC team to start the season. The SEC has dominated in the past and with the talent missing on the Tar Heels, including DE Marvin Austin and WR Greg Little, I expect LSU to keep the streak intact. I would have initially thought betting the under (44) was the safe play, I now expect QB Jordan Jefferson to shine, with Russell Shepard (last year’s top HS QB recruit) playing a big part in the passing game alongside Terrance Tolliver. UNC still has the team to compete and win this game, but ultimately the Bayou Bengals will be the team celebrating in Atlanta.
Other important games this week include TCU and Oregon State in Cowboys Stadium. I was surprised to see TCU favored by 13, but looking at Oregon State’s history with road games in September, let’s just say really bad, and TCU looking at repeating last year’s BCS party (right up until the flat loss to Boise) with their entire offense back, I can understand the big spread. OSU also has a history of having less success in a QB’s first season. So it will be up to the Rodgers brothers to keep the Beavers in this game. It would be big for the Pac 10 to go into Texas and beat a heavily favored MWC team. But the experts say it’s a long shot.
Not much else on the schedule Saturday worth discussing. Check back before Monday for the Game of the Week, Boise State and Virginia Tech.
The 2010 season is upon us after a rollercoaster offseason that led the sport to the brink of unimaginable change and then back off the ledge. So what better way to celebrate than running to the ATM, taking out a stack of $20s that was meant for groceries for the next month and asking directions to the nearest Sports Book. I know for me that is a sure sign Labor Day is upon us.
I set out last year with the goal of giving the legions of college football fans an edge when it comes to knowledge of the games and more importantly handicapping those games. Although I was successful in one way, giving out said knowledge, it was not the success I strive for, beating the Vegas oddsmakers. Let’s just say I would have been the guy sweating out whether I get my room comped at the Holiday Inn, not the guy being given the keys to a Presidential Suite at the Bellagio.
So this year the goal will be higher. No more mediocrity for the Saturday Lox. No more waiting in the discount buffet line because SMU didn’t cover, we are heading straight to the VIP line this year. No more sweating the final score of the Akron-Bowling Green game or hoping New Mexico State runs up the score on San Jose State. Those games don’t lead to the Penthouse, they lead to Gambler’s Anonymous meetings.
Saturday Lox exists for one reason, ironically the same as the NCAA and BCS: Make as much money off others as you can while saying you are doing it for the good of others. So jump on the bandwagon, find your nearest casino, bookie or Western Union (sending money to an offshore account in the Cayman Islands has never been easier!) and let the Games begin.
There are only a few sure things in life: Death, Taxes and cursing at the TV because the damn kicker missed the extra point that cost you the spread. Good luck everyone and enjoy.
Week 1 Lox
Western Michigan (+24.5) @ Michigan State
Okay, so the Broncos from Kalamazoo don’t exactly have the cache to get me in free at Tao Beach nightclub (The club Lebron reportedly celebrated at by only allowing waitresses wearing his jersey to serve him, and when I say his jersey that is all they were wearing), but it’s not a bad start. Western Michigan is the favorite in the MAC this year and Michigan State will be breaking in 4 new starters on the offensive line. Last year the Spartans lost to Central Michigan 29-27 in week 2 as 14-point home favorites. This year Western Michigan should be able to keep it close enough to cover the 24 points.
Northwestern (-4) @ Vanderbilt
Coming off a 2-10 season the Commodores don’t have much to look forward to, at least in football (this might be a good matchup in debate!). Northwestern on the other hand has been to two straight bowl games, losing both in overtime, but are looking up in the Big Ten. The Wildcats went 4-1 last year on he road ATS (against the spread), including wins at Purdue, at Iowa (#8) and at Illinois. This team doesn’t mind playing away from Chicago (or Evanston to be exact) and are the more talented team. Look for Northwestern to break in their new QB with at least a touchdown victory.
Purdue (+11) @ Notre Dame
As much confidence Notre Dame should rightfully possess with Brian Kelly now at the helm, I think Vegas again overvalues this team. It is a case of much more money flowing into the Irish side in Vegas that makes the line artificially high. Purdue is a decent team that possesses enough talent to have upset Ohio State last year. More importantly the new QB is Robert Marve, a transfer from Miami who many say has more talent than Jacory Harris, who beat him out for the job at the U. He could become the next in a great line of Boilermaker QBs (Drew Brees tops the list) and his first start will come under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus. Notre Dame will be much improved most likely but won’t put it together week 1 and will struggle enough to make this a close game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdue has a shot to spoil Kelly’s debut late in this game. The Irish won this matchup last year with a TD with 20 seconds left.
Kentucky (-3) @ Louisville
This isn’t exactly Rick Pitino vs. John Calipari or Rick Pitino vs. Denny Crum, whichever stint of Pitino you choose to remember, but it still stokes some animosity across the Commonwealth. Kentucky has won 3 straight and now the torch is passed to new head coach Joker Phillips. If the Wildcats’ new offensive line holds up, the skill positions will be very good. Fellow rookie head coach Charlie Strong, Florida’s old defensive coordinator, has to break in 7 new starters on defense and it won’t be an easy start. Both fan bases are hungry to elevate their football programs and it starts with this rivalry.
Washington @ BYU (Over 57)
Jake Locker will look for revenge in two forms on Saturday, one against the opposing team, the other against the officials. It was Locker’s “celebration” penalty after scoring what he thought was the tying TD against BYU two years ago that led to the blocked extra point and the loss. It was a terrible call that started the downward spiral of the eventual 0-12 season. The Huskies should be much improved though after taking a step up last year under head coach Steve Sarkisian. Interestingly, it was the Huskies that prevented Sarkisian from going undefeated in his finest season as the QB at BYU, losing at Husky Stadium in a blowout, BYU’s only loss that year. With 18 starters back including 10 on offense, Sarkisian has himself a potent offense. BYU will be rotating two QBs to start but have never had a problem on offense. Both these teams are capable of fireworks on offense so I expect a shootout and whoever has the ball last may ultimately prevail.
North Carolina vs. LSU (-8) in Atlanta
The Agency or The Tutor. For the Tar Heels’ athletic director he is going to hear about two things for as many years as he has his job in Chapel Hill. That is the agency that is mixed up in a scandal with some of the top talent on UNC and the tutor who is now at the center of an academic investigation into the UNC athletic family. Roy Williams please step to the microphone you’re never shy about speaking up.
Going back to the game, this is the Chick Fil A Kickoff in Atlanta that pits a top ACC and SEC team to start the season. The SEC has dominated in the past and with the talent missing on the Tar Heels, including DE Marvin Austin and WR Greg Little, I expect LSU to keep the streak intact. I would have initially thought betting the under (44) was the safe play, I now expect QB Jordan Jefferson to shine, with Russell Shepard (last year’s top HS QB recruit) playing a big part in the passing game alongside Terrance Tolliver. UNC still has the team to compete and win this game, but ultimately the Bayou Bengals will be the team celebrating in Atlanta.
Other important games this week include TCU and Oregon State in Cowboys Stadium. I was surprised to see TCU favored by 13, but looking at Oregon State’s history with road games in September, let’s just say really bad, and TCU looking at repeating last year’s BCS party (right up until the flat loss to Boise) with their entire offense back, I can understand the big spread. OSU also has a history of having less success in a QB’s first season. So it will be up to the Rodgers brothers to keep the Beavers in this game. It would be big for the Pac 10 to go into Texas and beat a heavily favored MWC team. But the experts say it’s a long shot.
Not much else on the schedule Saturday worth discussing. Check back before Monday for the Game of the Week, Boise State and Virginia Tech.
