Fiesta Bowl

Heading into the final 3 BCS Bowl games including the National Title my picks have fared about as well as Barack Obama's healthcare plan, that is to say each win is whittled away by a a loss or two. But with money left and a sporting landscape headed toward NBA basketball (how much you wanna bet Tim Donaghy is still playing some angles just to spite David Stern) and can't wait until March Madness, there is no better time to go all in on the few nights of football left. That brings us to the Fiesta and Orange Bowls and the National Title Game from Pasadena. The Lox record in bowls thus far is a far-from inspiring 4-8-1. With 2 wins in a row to salvage the New Year's weekend, a strong finish is in the works and could save the season. I promised a vacation after football season, three games left to earn it.

Fiesta Bowl

TCU (-7) vs. Boise State
In a strange occurence these two teams met last year in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Boise was undefeated yet three-point underdogs to TCU and Gary Patterson. TCU won the game 17-16 but could have dominated as they turned the ball over several times in Boise territory and outgained the Broncos by 200 yards, holding Boise to 250 total and just 28 rush yards. Both teams now meet on center stage in the first BCS game featuring teams from non-BCS conferences. Also this will be the first BCS bowl game with two undefeated teams that is not the National Title game.

The difference from this year to last is TCU has the better offense and defense statistically over Boise. The Horned Frogs dominated the MWC, beating rivals Utah and BYU by a combined 58 points and going on the road to beat Clemson early in the season. Boise has the memorable opening win over Oregon and then took on all comers, with Fresno State and Nevada keeping the games interesting. Taking the outcomes from the bowl season it is easy to surmise that the MWC is the best "non-BCS" conference and quite possibly on equal footing now, especially at the top the conference, with other major conferences. Utah and BYU both beat Pac-10 schools in their bowl games as underdogs and the conference is 4-0, while the WAC has suffered upset losses by Nevada and Fresno State.

The QBs make each of these teams special on offense with Kellen Moore of Boise getting more publicity and putting up video game numbers with his 39-3 TD-int rate. Boise averages 44 points a game, first nationally, but is just 8th in yards gained, while TCU, led by QB Andy Dalton is 4th nationally in both points and yards. Dalton threw just 5 ints all season and was one of four players to rush for at least 500 yards this season. TCU's defense though is the unit to watch as Gary Patterson has built a defense from the beginning that would make his team competitive year in and year out. DE Jerry Hughes is the NFL talent to watch as he will make the offensive line of Boise work harder than they have all year. Whether Boise can block for Moore will be a big part of how this game goes.

Until last year's win but non-cover, Gary Patterson had been 5-0 ATS for TCU in bowl games. His teams always seem to play well in statement games and he has admitted this is a huge opportunity on a national level for his program. Boise has been here before, beating Oklahoma in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl as 7-point underdogs. But they are just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS in bowls but have won 25 of 26 games overall. Having said this I think TCU is the stronger team talent wise and if they aren't intimidated by the big stage should be able to do to Boise what they did to BYU and Utah earlier. They will come out strong on both offense and defense and make the Broncos one-dimensional where they can tee off on Kellen Moore. Boise's head coach Chris Peterson will have some tricks up his sleeves to stop the rush and make big plays, but in the end TCU will be too much to handle and will prove that they are the most deserving of the undefeated teams not in the Title game. TCU 34 - Boise State 13