Thursday, January 7, 2010
BCS National Championship
I hear Iowa is a great place to visit. Well, maybe not on a winter vacation, but the Iowa football team deserves a tropical break after thrashing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the coldest Orange Bowl on record. They didn't treat their trip to Miami as a vacation and with the upset win over the ACC champions in weather that was very comforting to the tens of thousands of Hawkeye fans in attendance, the Iowa football team and Kirk Ferentz put an exclamation point on their best season in decades. Tech couldn't get past the Iowa defense in the first half, not gaining a first down until mid-2nd quarter. In fact, Tech went 3 and out and punted on their first four possessions, something they only did 14 times in their other 13 games. Hand it to Iowa's defense for setting the stage and their offense for capitalizing with 2 first quarter TDs to grab a lead they would never relinquish. Once again it can be said that Georgia Tech has a problem when teams can prepare for weeks to stop their Triple Option offense. Last year it was LSU that handled them easily after a month off and now Iowa showed they could master the intricacies of Paul Johnson's offense with plenty of time to prepare. It was a big win for the Saturday Lox, as the upset win and the relative low score helped improve the bottom line with just one bet left in the season. That brings us to the final night of college football for almost 8 months, and the attention is turned back to the Rose Bowl, where two tradition-rich football programs will battle it out for the Crystal Trophy.
BCS National Championship From the Rose Bowl in Pasadena
Alabama (-3.5) vs. Texas
In a bowl season that has seen many underdogs, especially those within 3-5 points, come out as the winner it is difficult to separate this game from the context of the bowl season. 3 of the 4 BCS games were won outright by underdogs (Ohio State, Iowa and Boise State) and many more lesser bowls followed suit. But good handicappers, those old guys sitting in the corner of the sports bar at Las Vegas casinos that have everybody whispering to their buddies about them, never let other forces influence their thinking about a game. Many intangible components lead one to believe Texas will be standing on stage tonight with the trophy proclaiming them National Champion. The fact that they won the last Title game played in the Rose Bowl, over USC as a big underdog. The trend that shows the Heisman winner losing in the Title game (Eric Crouch in 2001, Jason White in 2003, Reggie Bush in 2005, Troy Smith in 2006 and Sam Bradford last year) bodes well for Texas and not so well for Mark Ingram and Alabama. The fact that Colt McCoy is the winningest QB in college football while Greg McElroy is making his first bowl game appearance. Texas has those intangibles on its side and some Longhorns fans say destiny is on their side as well after last year's snub from the BCS that saw Oklahoma playing for the Title even though Texas beat them. But all those stats go out the window when these teams line up for the kickoff and the final result will be determined not by which team has history or destiny on its side, not by which team had the more impressive season, but simply by which team plays better for 60 minutes of football. Mack Brown has preached this to his football team since their win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game, when they needed one more second to secure the win, yet got the extra second and the chance to play in this game tonight. So the question is, which team will play better tonight?
For Nick Saban and Alabama the keys to victory here are the same as they have been all year. Run the ball with authority to Mark Ingram and let Greg McElroy pick apart a defense that is geared toward stopping the run. They would like to have a time of possession advantage (33 minutes on average during the season) and then hand over a lead to their defense, a unit that is first or second in the nation in most categories. Texas though has statistically the best run defense (many people frown at this stat as the Big 12 has turned into a pass happy conference) and will look to stop Ingram and put the game in the hands of McElroy. On offense the Longhorns must be able to run the ball, even if it is McCoy doing the running, as in the Texas A&M win when he rushed for 175 yards. If he and the run game are neutralized early it could become similar to the Nebraska game when McCoy was pestered into 3 int's and 9 sacks. They had no running game and the Nebraska front 4 dominated the Texas O-line. The difference between the Tide defense and the Cornhuskers is the Tide plays a 3-4 alignment that relies heavily on their linebackers and secondary to make plays. Nebraska's strength was their 4 D-linemen led by Ndamukong Suh, which pressured McCoy into many mistakes. Alabama will try to stop the run, make McCoy one-dimensional, and let LB Rolando McClain and CB Javier Arenas make big plays. DT Terrance Cody will also be key to disrupting McCoy and the offense.
For Texas to win I believe they will need big performances from McCoy, who will need to use his arm and his legs to make plays and not turn the ball over or take negative plays. Also, they will need a few big plays in the running game or on screen passes. WR Jordan Shipley must also have a big game, as he was a non-factor in the Big 12 Title game. He has been impressive in the return game and one big play on special teams can sometimes decide a game like this. On defense the Longhorns must take away Mark Ingram and not allow for long drives that let the Bama defense rest and give momentum to the Tide. They will do everything they can to put the game in McElroy's hands and see if the young QB can win the Title for the Tide.
The reason I am picking Alabama in this game is because the Tide has showed they can rely on multiple ways to win a game. In the close win over Tennessee they needed defensive stops and a blocked field goal to come out on top. In their rivalry game against Auburn Mark Ingram was contained all game with only 30 rushing yards, yet McElroy took the team on his back and drove for the winning TD. To beat Florida the Tide relied on Ingram running and receiving and a relentless defense that stymied Tim Tebow. WR Julio Jones, who many figured would be their best offensive weapon, was held in check the first half of the season but came on strong down the stretch and will be the biggest threat for McElroy in the passing game. Bama also features pass catching TE's that work the middle of the field off play-action fakes, a big part of their offense.
The difference though I believe will be McElroy. After getting off to a great start to the season, he stumbled in the SEC and had fans wondering if he could lead them to a Title. But after the Auburn winning drive he seemed to show a leadership and confidence in the SEC Title game not seen before. I think he is ready for the high stakes of this game and with a supporting cast of Ingram and Jones and a stout defense the Crimson Tide will be standing victorious for their first National Title since Gene Stallings in 1992.
The fact is Texas has barely escaped victorious in both games this year (Oklahoma and Nebraska) against their heated rivals. They weren't able to muster their usual offensive fireworks in either game and I don't expect them to do so against Alabama. Similar to what Florida did last year to Oklahoma, I believe Bama will pressure McCoy into mistakes and Texas won't be able to score TDs in the red zone. They will have enough opportunities to win but in the end the Alabama Crimson Tide will make enough defensive stops and have enough firepower between Ingram and Jones to come out winners. This should be a great game between two teams that deserve to be here, with Nick Saban able to take his second national championship home (first was with LSU in 2003) with an amazing 3-year turnaround at Alabama. To think Saban's only two losses in two years was a blown 4th quarter lead to Florida in last year's SEC Championship game and then the lackluster performance to Utah in last year's Sugar Bowl is very impressive. Even more impressive after you look at his first season the team lost to Louisiana Monroe, at home. This team has come a long way from when Nick Saban boarded a flight from Miami and told the Dolphins he was meant to coach in college, to now three years into the process of building Bear Bryant's program back to prominence the Tide has a chance to stand at the top of the college football world.
Alabama 27 - Texas 20
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Orange Bowl
Iowa (+5.5) vs. Georgia Tech
As we still await TCU's arrival to the BCS (the Fiesta Bowl was last night guys, sorry maybe next year) the attention of college football turns to Miami where the Orange Bowl is set to host Iowa and Georgia Tech. Fans from the Midwest will have vacationed for days in the oasis that is Miami, yet 48 degree highs with gusting winds might not be ideal weather for the beach or football. After Boise State's uninspiring win over a hapless TCU team (thanks again guys, no vacation for me after last night's bet) we turn to what most have said is the least interesting of the BCS Bowls, Iowa versus Georgia Tech. Triple Option offense versus stout defense and a cardiac offense. Big 10 versus ACC. It will be worth the price of admission if the Tech offense does not falter as it did last year in the Peach Bowl (it's still the Peach Bowl to me, no Chick Fil-A) to LSU 38-3, a whooping that Les Miles put on Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech with the Jackets as 3-point favorites. This year though Georgia Tech has put up a stellar season while winning the ACC and has a chance for their best finish since their shared national title in 1990. Iowa as well could finish with its most wins and highest ranking since 1960. Both teams should have good crowds at Land Shark Stadium and this game could surprise people and be the best of all the BCS games, as Iowa has several late 4th-quarter comebacks this season and played Ohio State to a fantastic overtime loss. It should be a close game and I expect both teams to play well, unlike last night with TCU and Cincinnati and Oregon in earlier BCS games.
The trend has been toward underdogs in this year's bowl games, with many teams favored by 3-5 points getting upset outright. I will go with the underdog here as well, as Iowa is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this year including 3-1 winning outright. Over 3 seasons those stats go up to 11-3 ATS and 7-7 SU. So judging by Iowa's past they usually are underdogs only in numbers. The Yellow Jackets also have been good this year ATS, going 8-4 on the year. They were upset outright to Georgia on Thanksgiving weekend though and have shown weakness on defense. The Hawkeyes have relied on winning close games with a stout defense and balanced offense that has engineered comeback drives late in wins over Michigan State and Michigan and the loss to Ohio State. Georgia Tech, led by QB Josh Nesbitt, RB Jonathan Dwyer and a host of other playmakers, have only been held to under 200 rushing yards in one game, a loss to Miami on this same field, while Iowa has only allowed over 200 yards once all season. Contrasting styles and a battle of wills will be on display and whichever team can play their game and avoid mistakes and turnovers should win. With GT superior offensively, Iowa defensively, the special teams could make the difference and I belive Iowa is better in that department. Remember a fake punt won the game for Boise last night. Iowa also has not lost a game when QB Ricky Stanzi plays the entire way (he left their first loss to Northwestern to injury and didn't play in the Ohio State game) and he will start in this one. Take the points (the money line if you feel greedy) and hope Iowa can stop the Tech offense with a month to prepare. Both teams trend towards the Under this year as well so with a total of 51 points, if you feel lucky take the under and make it a big pay day. Iowa 23 - Georgia Tech 22
As we still await TCU's arrival to the BCS (the Fiesta Bowl was last night guys, sorry maybe next year) the attention of college football turns to Miami where the Orange Bowl is set to host Iowa and Georgia Tech. Fans from the Midwest will have vacationed for days in the oasis that is Miami, yet 48 degree highs with gusting winds might not be ideal weather for the beach or football. After Boise State's uninspiring win over a hapless TCU team (thanks again guys, no vacation for me after last night's bet) we turn to what most have said is the least interesting of the BCS Bowls, Iowa versus Georgia Tech. Triple Option offense versus stout defense and a cardiac offense. Big 10 versus ACC. It will be worth the price of admission if the Tech offense does not falter as it did last year in the Peach Bowl (it's still the Peach Bowl to me, no Chick Fil-A) to LSU 38-3, a whooping that Les Miles put on Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech with the Jackets as 3-point favorites. This year though Georgia Tech has put up a stellar season while winning the ACC and has a chance for their best finish since their shared national title in 1990. Iowa as well could finish with its most wins and highest ranking since 1960. Both teams should have good crowds at Land Shark Stadium and this game could surprise people and be the best of all the BCS games, as Iowa has several late 4th-quarter comebacks this season and played Ohio State to a fantastic overtime loss. It should be a close game and I expect both teams to play well, unlike last night with TCU and Cincinnati and Oregon in earlier BCS games.
The trend has been toward underdogs in this year's bowl games, with many teams favored by 3-5 points getting upset outright. I will go with the underdog here as well, as Iowa is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this year including 3-1 winning outright. Over 3 seasons those stats go up to 11-3 ATS and 7-7 SU. So judging by Iowa's past they usually are underdogs only in numbers. The Yellow Jackets also have been good this year ATS, going 8-4 on the year. They were upset outright to Georgia on Thanksgiving weekend though and have shown weakness on defense. The Hawkeyes have relied on winning close games with a stout defense and balanced offense that has engineered comeback drives late in wins over Michigan State and Michigan and the loss to Ohio State. Georgia Tech, led by QB Josh Nesbitt, RB Jonathan Dwyer and a host of other playmakers, have only been held to under 200 rushing yards in one game, a loss to Miami on this same field, while Iowa has only allowed over 200 yards once all season. Contrasting styles and a battle of wills will be on display and whichever team can play their game and avoid mistakes and turnovers should win. With GT superior offensively, Iowa defensively, the special teams could make the difference and I belive Iowa is better in that department. Remember a fake punt won the game for Boise last night. Iowa also has not lost a game when QB Ricky Stanzi plays the entire way (he left their first loss to Northwestern to injury and didn't play in the Ohio State game) and he will start in this one. Take the points (the money line if you feel greedy) and hope Iowa can stop the Tech offense with a month to prepare. Both teams trend towards the Under this year as well so with a total of 51 points, if you feel lucky take the under and make it a big pay day. Iowa 23 - Georgia Tech 22
Monday, January 4, 2010
Fiesta Bowl
Heading into the final 3 BCS Bowl games including the National Title my picks have fared about as well as Barack Obama's healthcare plan, that is to say each win is whittled away by a a loss or two. But with money left and a sporting landscape headed toward NBA basketball (how much you wanna bet Tim Donaghy is still playing some angles just to spite David Stern) and can't wait until March Madness, there is no better time to go all in on the few nights of football left. That brings us to the Fiesta and Orange Bowls and the National Title Game from Pasadena. The Lox record in bowls thus far is a far-from inspiring 4-8-1. With 2 wins in a row to salvage the New Year's weekend, a strong finish is in the works and could save the season. I promised a vacation after football season, three games left to earn it.
Fiesta Bowl
TCU (-7) vs. Boise State
In a strange occurence these two teams met last year in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Boise was undefeated yet three-point underdogs to TCU and Gary Patterson. TCU won the game 17-16 but could have dominated as they turned the ball over several times in Boise territory and outgained the Broncos by 200 yards, holding Boise to 250 total and just 28 rush yards. Both teams now meet on center stage in the first BCS game featuring teams from non-BCS conferences. Also this will be the first BCS bowl game with two undefeated teams that is not the National Title game.
The difference from this year to last is TCU has the better offense and defense statistically over Boise. The Horned Frogs dominated the MWC, beating rivals Utah and BYU by a combined 58 points and going on the road to beat Clemson early in the season. Boise has the memorable opening win over Oregon and then took on all comers, with Fresno State and Nevada keeping the games interesting. Taking the outcomes from the bowl season it is easy to surmise that the MWC is the best "non-BCS" conference and quite possibly on equal footing now, especially at the top the conference, with other major conferences. Utah and BYU both beat Pac-10 schools in their bowl games as underdogs and the conference is 4-0, while the WAC has suffered upset losses by Nevada and Fresno State.
The QBs make each of these teams special on offense with Kellen Moore of Boise getting more publicity and putting up video game numbers with his 39-3 TD-int rate. Boise averages 44 points a game, first nationally, but is just 8th in yards gained, while TCU, led by QB Andy Dalton is 4th nationally in both points and yards. Dalton threw just 5 ints all season and was one of four players to rush for at least 500 yards this season. TCU's defense though is the unit to watch as Gary Patterson has built a defense from the beginning that would make his team competitive year in and year out. DE Jerry Hughes is the NFL talent to watch as he will make the offensive line of Boise work harder than they have all year. Whether Boise can block for Moore will be a big part of how this game goes.
Until last year's win but non-cover, Gary Patterson had been 5-0 ATS for TCU in bowl games. His teams always seem to play well in statement games and he has admitted this is a huge opportunity on a national level for his program. Boise has been here before, beating Oklahoma in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl as 7-point underdogs. But they are just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS in bowls but have won 25 of 26 games overall. Having said this I think TCU is the stronger team talent wise and if they aren't intimidated by the big stage should be able to do to Boise what they did to BYU and Utah earlier. They will come out strong on both offense and defense and make the Broncos one-dimensional where they can tee off on Kellen Moore. Boise's head coach Chris Peterson will have some tricks up his sleeves to stop the rush and make big plays, but in the end TCU will be too much to handle and will prove that they are the most deserving of the undefeated teams not in the Title game. TCU 34 - Boise State 13
Fiesta Bowl
TCU (-7) vs. Boise State
In a strange occurence these two teams met last year in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Boise was undefeated yet three-point underdogs to TCU and Gary Patterson. TCU won the game 17-16 but could have dominated as they turned the ball over several times in Boise territory and outgained the Broncos by 200 yards, holding Boise to 250 total and just 28 rush yards. Both teams now meet on center stage in the first BCS game featuring teams from non-BCS conferences. Also this will be the first BCS bowl game with two undefeated teams that is not the National Title game.
The difference from this year to last is TCU has the better offense and defense statistically over Boise. The Horned Frogs dominated the MWC, beating rivals Utah and BYU by a combined 58 points and going on the road to beat Clemson early in the season. Boise has the memorable opening win over Oregon and then took on all comers, with Fresno State and Nevada keeping the games interesting. Taking the outcomes from the bowl season it is easy to surmise that the MWC is the best "non-BCS" conference and quite possibly on equal footing now, especially at the top the conference, with other major conferences. Utah and BYU both beat Pac-10 schools in their bowl games as underdogs and the conference is 4-0, while the WAC has suffered upset losses by Nevada and Fresno State.
The QBs make each of these teams special on offense with Kellen Moore of Boise getting more publicity and putting up video game numbers with his 39-3 TD-int rate. Boise averages 44 points a game, first nationally, but is just 8th in yards gained, while TCU, led by QB Andy Dalton is 4th nationally in both points and yards. Dalton threw just 5 ints all season and was one of four players to rush for at least 500 yards this season. TCU's defense though is the unit to watch as Gary Patterson has built a defense from the beginning that would make his team competitive year in and year out. DE Jerry Hughes is the NFL talent to watch as he will make the offensive line of Boise work harder than they have all year. Whether Boise can block for Moore will be a big part of how this game goes.
Until last year's win but non-cover, Gary Patterson had been 5-0 ATS for TCU in bowl games. His teams always seem to play well in statement games and he has admitted this is a huge opportunity on a national level for his program. Boise has been here before, beating Oklahoma in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl as 7-point underdogs. But they are just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS in bowls but have won 25 of 26 games overall. Having said this I think TCU is the stronger team talent wise and if they aren't intimidated by the big stage should be able to do to Boise what they did to BYU and Utah earlier. They will come out strong on both offense and defense and make the Broncos one-dimensional where they can tee off on Kellen Moore. Boise's head coach Chris Peterson will have some tricks up his sleeves to stop the rush and make big plays, but in the end TCU will be too much to handle and will prove that they are the most deserving of the undefeated teams not in the Title game. TCU 34 - Boise State 13
