After last week’s 4-2 record, the Saturday Lox has crept close to breaking even. With just two weeks left before the bowls five wins are needed to be in positive territory. It has been a tricky year of handicapping the college football world and I suspect Thanksgiving weekend will bring more of the same. There will be upsets in rivalry games and I finally believe the top 5 in the poll will be tested and one of the undefeated teams could fall. Texas took all they could handle from Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night and as I write this Auburn leads Alabama 7-0 and just recovered an onside kick early in the game. Like Auburn and Coach Gene Chizik is showing in this game rivalries bring out all the trick plays and all the gambles a coach can think of. Besides the Tide being tested, I believe Florida and Boise State will see the best effort possible from talented and tough teams. See below for my pick on Boise State – Nevada and plenty of the best games college football has to offer to go with leftover turkey and stuffing. There is no better two days to watch football than the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving. Sit back, relax, grab a cold turkey sandwich and enjoy the assortment of games with national intrigue, regional hatred, and coaches fighting to save their jobs or simply filling the required weeks before termination. Charlie Weis fits in one of those categories, only the boosters writing the checks for Touchdown Jesus know which one.
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
UCLA (+13) @ USC
The Trojans had a week off to stew over the loss to Stanford while UCLA has won 3 in a row after starting 0-5 in the Pac 10. USC has dominated this city rivalry in the last decade but UCLA did pull off the upset three years ago to ruin the Trojans’ chance at the National Championship. I think the Bruins’ defense is good enough to keep them in the game but the offense will need to score to win, unlike last week when the offense failed to score a TD but they beat ASU. I would not be surprised at the upset but will not call for it, take the points though and hope USC did not find their offense in the bye week. PICK: USC 24 – UCLA 16
Pittsburgh (Pick) @ West Virginia – Friday
“The Backyard Brawl” is as intense a rivalry that exists in the country. Pittsburgh ruined West Virginia’s National Championship hopes two years ago and led to the exit of Rich Rodriguez to Michigan. This year it is the opposite with the Mountaineers playing the spoiler against one-loss Pittsburgh which has a bigger game on deck against Cincinnati. They will not overlook their hated rivals here and even on the road I expect Dave Wannstedt to lead his team to victory. RB Dion Lewis for Pitt and Noel Devine for WV should put on a show and this could come down to which QB plays better, Bill Stull or Jarrett Brown. Pitt has won two in a row and hasn’t won 3 in a row in the series since 1982. I’ll call for them to win on the road and set up a showdown for the Big East next week. PICK: Pittsburgh 31 – West Virginia 28
Georgia @ Georgia Tech (-7.5)
Last year’s upset by Tech on the road solidified Paul Johnson as head coach and vaulted the Yellow Jackets into their one-loss season and ACC Coastal title. Tech has dominated most every opponent but needed overtime in a surprise scare by Wake Forest. Georgia has struggled against the best competition on their schedule and then last week were upset by Kentucky. After a week off I expect Tech to take down Georgia before the ACC Championship rematch against Clemson. Paul Johnson’s triple option offense has evolved this year with QB Jonathan Dwyer gaining more experience and more polish on his passing game. Look for big games from all facets of the Tech offense. PICK Georgia Tech 38 – Georgia 28
Regular Lox
Nevada (+13.5) @ Boise State – Friday
Even though Boise State has won 9 in a row in this series the last two were close including 66-64 in 4 overtimes last time on the Blue Turf. Nevada has won 7 in a row after starting the season with 3 straight losses. The winner of this game is the WAC Champion and Boise is obviously playing for more with hopes of a BCS berth. Nevada will play this game close I expect with the game decided in the fourth quarter. Nevada leads the nation in rushing and with three 1,000 yard rushers like to spread the ball around. We’ll see if Boise can stop a great offense after the opening week win over Oregon and their vaunted offense. Boise needs to make a statement to get the BCS to look their way, but Nevada should give them a tough game. PICK: Boise State 42 – Nevada 34
Notre Dame @ Stanford (Over 63)
I will be in the stands to watch this game as Stanford looks to bounce back after their crushing loss in the Big Game to Cal last week while Notre Dame will get one last chance to watch Charlie Weis coach the team. With both team’s strength their offense I expect this to be a high scoring game with Toby Gerhart running for over 200 yards and a few TDs and Andrew Luck having a good game after last week’s disaster. Jimmy Clausen might not come back to the Irish with his stock in the draft sure to be high and students taking cheap shots at him in local bars (if you haven’t heard Clausen was “coldcocked” in a South Bend bar following the loss to UCONN Saturday night). The Irish always keep games close and this will be no different as the Cardinal will not be able to stop the passing game and WR Golden Tate, but I think the Cardinal get the win knowing they need it to attract an upper tier Pac 10 bowl. But the best bet here is a high scoring affair and the Over. PICK: Stanford 41 – Notre Dame 33
Arizona (-4) @ Arizona State
The Wildcats have lost two straight including last week’s heartbreaker in 2 overtimes when a shot at the Rose Bowl was on the line. Now they are playing not to drop into the lower half of the Pac 10. The Sun Devils can spoil their rivals’ season with a home upset but have not looked capable on offense of scoring enough points. I expect Arizona to bounce back and beat their rival before a big game against USC next week. PICK: Arizona 27 – Arizona State 20
Upsets
South Carolina (+3.5, +135) over Clemson
This rivalry has been dominated by Clemson and it was the blowout of South Carolina last year that clinched the head coaching job for Dabo Swinney. South Carolina has lost three in a row while Clemson has won 6 in a row after their humbling home loss to Maryland. Clemson will play in the ACC Championship next Saturday and with that in mind and the Gamecocks needing this win to avoid playing in a lower tier SEC bowl I think the talent is close enough to call for an upset. PICK: South Carolina 23 – Clemson 21
Friday, November 27, 2009
Friday, November 20, 2009
College Football Week 12
Saturday Lox Week 12
Premium Lox
Rutgers (-8) @ Syracuse
Rutgers still has a lot to play for in the Big East while the Cuse got their first victory in conference play last week vs. Louisville. I have had success going against the Orange this year and I think Rutgers will continue the streak. PICK: Rutgers 31 – Syracuse 17
Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. Baylor
Baylor has had a tough year after losing their star QB early. The Aggies meanwhile have been blown out against good competition but have won the games they should. This game fits in the latter category and they should handle business at home in preparation for the rivalry game vs. Texas. PICK: Texas A&M 27 – Baylor 20
Arizona State @ UCLA (Under 41.5)
Both teams rely on their defense to win games. Add to that a new starting QB for the Sun Devils and this game has the makings of a slugfest. Turnovers could lead to enough points and ruin the under but I will take my chances. UCLA has shown some signs of life on offense but ASU held USC to 14 and I think will do similar damage to the Bruins. PICK: UCLA 20 – Arizona State 17
Regular Lox
Connecticut (+6) @ Notre Dame
UCONN has lost three in a row since the tragic death of CB Jasper Howard but have had a week off to get back to some semblance of normalcy. The Irish meanwhile would love to get back to normal but will not until the end of the season and the Charlie Weis questions are answered. Notre Dame should play a good game for their embattled coach but UCONN has a way of playing teams close and ND has a tendency to let teams stay in games. I think this game comes down to the final drive as many have for the Irish and I would not be surprised at the upset. Golden Tate has been tremendous for the Irish and I can see him making the difference once again. PICK: ND 31 – UCONN 30
Texas Tech (+6.5) vs. Oklahoma
Both of these teams have a lot to play for in the Big 12 South. The Sooners would like to avoid a trip to a second rate bowl game while the Red Raiders would like to beat Oklahoma for the second time in a row in Lubbock. I think both teams are fairly even with all the injuries suffered by the Sooners and this spread is more about tradition than reality. Tech has looked bad in a loss to A&M while looking great in wins over Nebraska and the Kansas schools. They lost last week at OK State in a close game and at home might have enough to pull the upset Saturday. Just in case buy the half point and hope they stay within a TD. PICK: Oklahoma 34 – Texas Tech 31
Air Force (+10) @ BYU
Air Force is playing its best football of the year winning 3 in a row after a close loss to Utah. BYU has had an up and down season and is probably more worried about their rivalry against Utah next week. Air Force is 20-7 ATS in conference over the last 3 years. Couple that with BYU’s struggles covering the spread against good teams and I will take the Falcons on the road. They have not fared well in this rivalry but I expect a close game here and a good showing from the Air Force Academy with conference bragging rights on the line. PICK: BYU 27 – Air Force 21
Upsets
LSU (+3.5)(+130) @ Ole Miss
I thought about several upsets, including Michigan State at home over Penn State and North Carolina visiting Boston College. But the Spartans just haven’t done enough to show me they can beat even a mediocre Nittany Lions team. Boston College plays great at home and in fact has covered every home game and not covered in every road game this year. So I will not go against that trend. But my Upset pick of the week is also a team that struggles on the road. LSU visits Ole Miss with second place in the SEC West up for grabs. Even with a multitude of injuries I expect LSU to find a way to win in Oxford and hand the Rebels another tough loss in what was supposed to be a great season. The Tigers’ defense will be the difference as Jevan Snead will struggle again playing a talented defense. PICK: LSU 20 – Ole Miss 19
Premium Lox
Rutgers (-8) @ Syracuse
Rutgers still has a lot to play for in the Big East while the Cuse got their first victory in conference play last week vs. Louisville. I have had success going against the Orange this year and I think Rutgers will continue the streak. PICK: Rutgers 31 – Syracuse 17
Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. Baylor
Baylor has had a tough year after losing their star QB early. The Aggies meanwhile have been blown out against good competition but have won the games they should. This game fits in the latter category and they should handle business at home in preparation for the rivalry game vs. Texas. PICK: Texas A&M 27 – Baylor 20
Arizona State @ UCLA (Under 41.5)
Both teams rely on their defense to win games. Add to that a new starting QB for the Sun Devils and this game has the makings of a slugfest. Turnovers could lead to enough points and ruin the under but I will take my chances. UCLA has shown some signs of life on offense but ASU held USC to 14 and I think will do similar damage to the Bruins. PICK: UCLA 20 – Arizona State 17
Regular Lox
Connecticut (+6) @ Notre Dame
UCONN has lost three in a row since the tragic death of CB Jasper Howard but have had a week off to get back to some semblance of normalcy. The Irish meanwhile would love to get back to normal but will not until the end of the season and the Charlie Weis questions are answered. Notre Dame should play a good game for their embattled coach but UCONN has a way of playing teams close and ND has a tendency to let teams stay in games. I think this game comes down to the final drive as many have for the Irish and I would not be surprised at the upset. Golden Tate has been tremendous for the Irish and I can see him making the difference once again. PICK: ND 31 – UCONN 30
Texas Tech (+6.5) vs. Oklahoma
Both of these teams have a lot to play for in the Big 12 South. The Sooners would like to avoid a trip to a second rate bowl game while the Red Raiders would like to beat Oklahoma for the second time in a row in Lubbock. I think both teams are fairly even with all the injuries suffered by the Sooners and this spread is more about tradition than reality. Tech has looked bad in a loss to A&M while looking great in wins over Nebraska and the Kansas schools. They lost last week at OK State in a close game and at home might have enough to pull the upset Saturday. Just in case buy the half point and hope they stay within a TD. PICK: Oklahoma 34 – Texas Tech 31
Air Force (+10) @ BYU
Air Force is playing its best football of the year winning 3 in a row after a close loss to Utah. BYU has had an up and down season and is probably more worried about their rivalry against Utah next week. Air Force is 20-7 ATS in conference over the last 3 years. Couple that with BYU’s struggles covering the spread against good teams and I will take the Falcons on the road. They have not fared well in this rivalry but I expect a close game here and a good showing from the Air Force Academy with conference bragging rights on the line. PICK: BYU 27 – Air Force 21
Upsets
LSU (+3.5)(+130) @ Ole Miss
I thought about several upsets, including Michigan State at home over Penn State and North Carolina visiting Boston College. But the Spartans just haven’t done enough to show me they can beat even a mediocre Nittany Lions team. Boston College plays great at home and in fact has covered every home game and not covered in every road game this year. So I will not go against that trend. But my Upset pick of the week is also a team that struggles on the road. LSU visits Ole Miss with second place in the SEC West up for grabs. Even with a multitude of injuries I expect LSU to find a way to win in Oxford and hand the Rebels another tough loss in what was supposed to be a great season. The Tigers’ defense will be the difference as Jevan Snead will struggle again playing a talented defense. PICK: LSU 20 – Ole Miss 19
Week 11 in Review
The Fall of Troy – 21st Century Edition
USC had an amazing run of 7 straight years atop the Pacific 10 Conference. Two National Titles, three Heisman Trophy winners, too many Rose Bowl victories to count. But in sobering fashion on Saturday the Stanford Cardinal ended a decade of dominance, arrogance and seeming invincibility for Pete Carroll and the Trojans.
Fans, alumni and students had packed the Coliseum for Homecoming in preparation for what they thought would be payback for the “Biggest Upset in History” two years ago, when Stanford beat USC as 41 point underdogs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season at Stanford. Homecoming didn’t last past the fourth quarter though as many fans were driving home on LA’s freeway system by the time Harbaugh decided to go for two leading 48-21. USC was booed at home for the first time in memory. The Trojans gave up the most points in school history, 55. Pete Carroll lost his first game in the month of November as USC Coach.
It was a monumental day for the Stanford football team and the Pac 10 as a whole. The flesh wounds that Oregon exposed in USC Halloween weekend were made into fatal blows by the Cardinal’s physical running attack and precise passing game. Toby Gerhart continued to show he is worthy of Heisman Trophy consideration with a 178 yard performance and 3 TDs. But maybe the most remarkable part of the game was that the third string RB for Stanford scored their final TD after running through the entire defensive front of the Trojans, and it was USC’s starters. What the Trojans did to teams for seemingly a decade, that is be more physical, more hungry, better executed, better coached, and never stop playing, is exactly what Stanford did on Saturday and Oregon two weeks before. A new team will represent the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl and that is a good thing.
As for the pundits and critics in Southern California and all over the nation that have made this game more about the two-point conversion and running up the score. If USC had a problem with it they should have stopped Stanford from getting the opportunity. Star safety Taylor Mays was none too happy about the play, but maybe that was because after laying a hit on Stanford TE Coby Fleener on a TD catch, Mays was the one getting up slow with stars circling over his helmet. The Trojans routinely won games by 40, 50 points over the years, going for 4th downs in the fourth quarter of blowouts and scoring more TDs when the game was clearly out of reach. How about throwing a long TD against Oregon last year while up by multiple scores. Maybe Pete has not gone for two in that situation, but regardless USC has not been the image of good sportsmen over the years. I can recall outrageous celebrations and chest bumping by USC players in the midst of blowouts. Then there is the famous Rey Maualuga incident with Erin Andrews on the sideline ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdDGYsYXHKc&feature=related ). If that doesn’t say classless I don’t know what does. The fact is USC was dominated in a fashion that has not happened before this year and if they couldn’t stop a third string RB from scoring on a play everyone knows is coming, then they should be more worried about the rest of their season than a two-point conversion that they actually did stop.
Maybe we could have seen this coming starting in January when Steve Sarkisian left for Washington taking Pete’s defensive coordinator with him. That was followed by Mark Sanchez leaving USC and a strange news conference where Pete did not seem to have his usual confidence and swagger, almost begging Sanchez to reconsider. This was not the USC dynasty we were used to seeing. A chink in the armor could be seen if you looked closely. By the time the season started a freshman quarterback was starting for the first time in history and the Trojans went down to a team that went winless the prior year. USC will be back no question, but the performance of Stanford on Saturday made recruiting against Pete Carroll and USC a little easier. You think Harbaugh might talk about November 14th in the LA Coliseum to a few kids that grew up dreaming of being a Trojan? My guess is yes and the conversation won’t be about any two-point conversion that Stanford missed.
The Rest of the Nation
The headliner came out west for a change as games in Columbus, Ohio, Columbia, SC and Pittsburgh didn’t match the intrigue of LA. Ohio State claimed the Big 10 with an overtime win over Iowa, but as usual the conservative style of Jim Tressell made the game practically unwatchable. Ohio State has not played in a Rose Bowl since 1996 so to see them go against a Pac 10 team in Pasadena should be good. I can’t wait to see if their near top-ranked defense can handle a team with a good offense (my apologies to Penn State, Iowa and the rest of the Big 10-MAC schedule OSU plays). They didn’t handle the SEC’s best over the years in BCS losses and should get a great test against Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State or Arizona, who are all alive for the other Rose Bowl berth.
Florida was able to handle a great effort from South Carolina in Columbia and now can look ahead to Florida State and Alabama. As evidence that the SEC should be knocked down a peg for scheduling cupcake competition, Florida gets a scrimmage against Florida Int’l this Saturday while Alabama goes against Tenn. Chattanooga. At least you have to give Ohio State credit for taking on USC earlier this year. The SEC might as well not play non-conference games if this is the competition they invite.
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati continued their winning ways and are headed for a big showdown for the Big East title and BCS berth. The Panthers handed Charlie Weis another loss while the Bearcats beat West Virginia on Friday night after a questionable night by the officials (again). Texas and Nebraska seem destined to meet in Dallas for the Big 12 Title after both winning Saturday while Georgia Tech sealed a spot against Clemson most likely in the ACC final. The Pac 10 is the most exciting conference in football with as many as 4 teams remaining for the title and at least 4 or 5 games that could have serious implications. Who needs a Conference Title game when you have that. Oh yeah, I forgot, money and sponsors rule the day. I present to you Oregon @ Arizona, presented by Tucson National Credit Union. The Stanford-Cal Big Game presented by Genentech and finally the Oregon-Oregon State Civil War in two weeks presented by Nike. Could work, right?
Top 10
1. Florida – The Gators may not look like last year’s team, but they are undefeated this year and are winning games with defense and just enough offense.
2. Alabama – Nick Saban has his team on a collision course with Florida. But the rivalry against Auburn will be Gene Chizik’s first in the series and Auburn’s offense has the ability but not the consistency. A big upset would ruin the SEC’s dream of a #1-2 title game.
3. TCU – This team continued to dominate against the best competition they face. Wins at Clemson and BYU and Utah in Fort Worth this past week have TCU all but sure of the BCS. Avoid the upset and they have a slight chance for the BCS title game if Alabama and Texas get upset.
4. Texas – I have the Longhorns as the #2 team in Texas. I look at the way TCU plays defense and I think they would stop Colt McCoy and company. I would love to see the old Southwestern Conference, with TCU, Texas, A&M, Tech, Houston and others. TCU might prove they were the best of the bunch this year.
5. Cincinnati – The Bearcats were fortunate to get a TD on a controversial call and beat WV by 3. Pittsburgh awaits in what will be a de facto Big East title game.
6. Georgia Tech – GT trailed Duke 10-0 early before rattling off 49 straight points. Josh Nesbitt is throwing the ball better while the running game continues to dominate. Nobody wants to play this team come Bowl season.
7. Boise State – The Broncos just haven’t done enough to stay above one-loss GT. They don’t play the best competition and they don’t look unstoppable against overmatched teams. Nevada might have a shot at an upset on the Blue Turf in a few weeks.
8. Pittsburgh – The Panthers beat Notre Dame and are looking good for a shot at the BCS. Who knows how good the team really is but we know RB Dion Lewis is legit.
9. Oregon – The Ducks continued to dominate teams in Eugene, but they have been outgained on average in their road games and must beat Arizona in Tucson this week to set up a Civil War for the Rose Bowl. Zona ruined their BCS hopes two years ago, the Ducks remember.
10. Stanford – The Cardinal have two of the biggest upsets of the season in back to back weeks and in my mind are better right now than two-loss teams Ohio State, LSU, Iowa, Penn State. None of those teams have wins over an Oregon or USC. Ohio State lost to USC and Purdue and big wins over Iowa and Penn State doesn’t count so much since those teams have really beat nobody good. LSU lost to Florida and Alabama, but have not beaten any great teams either. That leaves Stanford as the best of the rest. Their only losses were on the road to Arizona and Oregon State, and an early season last second road loss to Wake Forest after questionable officiating. Put the Cardinal on the field with those above mentioned teams and I think Stanford’s offense rules the day. Until those Big 10 teams beat anybody out of conference, they don’t belong in the same conversation as the best teams in the nation.
Saturday Lox Week 11 in Review
Premium
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 16-20
Winners:
Oregon State (-13): 48-21
The Beavers won easily over a Washington team that is on its last legs after starting the year well. Oregon State still has its sights set on a Rose Bowl and revenge against Oregon.
Losers:
BYU (-27.5): 24-19
The Cougars almost gave New Mexico their first win of the year but held on. BYU is not a good road team and even with the big win over Oklahoma has to consider this a disappointing season.
Arizona (+3): 16-24
Cal handled the Wildcats fairly easily and could have won by more if not for multiple turnovers in the red zone by Cal. But Arizona had the cover before Cal RB Shayne Vereen scored on a long TD run late 4th quarter to seal it. Tough loss.
Regular
Last Week: 3-0
Overall: 16-18-2
Winners:
Stanford (+11): 55-21
Toby Gerhart scored three times and had 178 yards rushing but it was Andrew Luck that controlled the game with his feet (61 yards rushing and a TD) and his arm (2 TDs). Harbaugh proved prophetic when he called Luck the best QB in the country, as he has engineered two upsets in a row and has shown off for NFL scouts who wish he was eligible this year. Matt Barkley looked bad in a battle of freshman Pac 10 signal callers, but the whole Stanford team dominated the Trojans. It could be a good rivalry for a few years to come as Barkley and Luck develop and the coaches continue to dislike each other. Stanford and Harbaugh lead the series for now.
Georgia Tech (-14): 49-10
The Yellow Jackets had no problem coming from behind against Duke. They scored at will against an overmatched defense after trailing early. Running, passing and special teams were all in GT’s favor as they clinched a spot in the ACC title game.
Nebraska (-3): 31-17
The Cornhuskers came one step closer to getting a chance at Texas in the Big 12 title by beating Kansas. The defense has been there all season for Nebraska and the offense finally played good enough to get a comfortable win.
Upsets
Last Week: 0-2 (outright upsets)
Overall: 9-13 (outright upsets)
Kansas State and Vanderbilt couldn’t pull the conference upsets as Missouri and Kentucky ruined their chances with strong showings. Both teams get another chance at the upset this week, but have stronger opponents in Nebraska and Tennessee respectively.
USC had an amazing run of 7 straight years atop the Pacific 10 Conference. Two National Titles, three Heisman Trophy winners, too many Rose Bowl victories to count. But in sobering fashion on Saturday the Stanford Cardinal ended a decade of dominance, arrogance and seeming invincibility for Pete Carroll and the Trojans.
Fans, alumni and students had packed the Coliseum for Homecoming in preparation for what they thought would be payback for the “Biggest Upset in History” two years ago, when Stanford beat USC as 41 point underdogs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season at Stanford. Homecoming didn’t last past the fourth quarter though as many fans were driving home on LA’s freeway system by the time Harbaugh decided to go for two leading 48-21. USC was booed at home for the first time in memory. The Trojans gave up the most points in school history, 55. Pete Carroll lost his first game in the month of November as USC Coach.
It was a monumental day for the Stanford football team and the Pac 10 as a whole. The flesh wounds that Oregon exposed in USC Halloween weekend were made into fatal blows by the Cardinal’s physical running attack and precise passing game. Toby Gerhart continued to show he is worthy of Heisman Trophy consideration with a 178 yard performance and 3 TDs. But maybe the most remarkable part of the game was that the third string RB for Stanford scored their final TD after running through the entire defensive front of the Trojans, and it was USC’s starters. What the Trojans did to teams for seemingly a decade, that is be more physical, more hungry, better executed, better coached, and never stop playing, is exactly what Stanford did on Saturday and Oregon two weeks before. A new team will represent the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl and that is a good thing.
As for the pundits and critics in Southern California and all over the nation that have made this game more about the two-point conversion and running up the score. If USC had a problem with it they should have stopped Stanford from getting the opportunity. Star safety Taylor Mays was none too happy about the play, but maybe that was because after laying a hit on Stanford TE Coby Fleener on a TD catch, Mays was the one getting up slow with stars circling over his helmet. The Trojans routinely won games by 40, 50 points over the years, going for 4th downs in the fourth quarter of blowouts and scoring more TDs when the game was clearly out of reach. How about throwing a long TD against Oregon last year while up by multiple scores. Maybe Pete has not gone for two in that situation, but regardless USC has not been the image of good sportsmen over the years. I can recall outrageous celebrations and chest bumping by USC players in the midst of blowouts. Then there is the famous Rey Maualuga incident with Erin Andrews on the sideline ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdDGYsYXHKc&feature=related ). If that doesn’t say classless I don’t know what does. The fact is USC was dominated in a fashion that has not happened before this year and if they couldn’t stop a third string RB from scoring on a play everyone knows is coming, then they should be more worried about the rest of their season than a two-point conversion that they actually did stop.
Maybe we could have seen this coming starting in January when Steve Sarkisian left for Washington taking Pete’s defensive coordinator with him. That was followed by Mark Sanchez leaving USC and a strange news conference where Pete did not seem to have his usual confidence and swagger, almost begging Sanchez to reconsider. This was not the USC dynasty we were used to seeing. A chink in the armor could be seen if you looked closely. By the time the season started a freshman quarterback was starting for the first time in history and the Trojans went down to a team that went winless the prior year. USC will be back no question, but the performance of Stanford on Saturday made recruiting against Pete Carroll and USC a little easier. You think Harbaugh might talk about November 14th in the LA Coliseum to a few kids that grew up dreaming of being a Trojan? My guess is yes and the conversation won’t be about any two-point conversion that Stanford missed.
The Rest of the Nation
The headliner came out west for a change as games in Columbus, Ohio, Columbia, SC and Pittsburgh didn’t match the intrigue of LA. Ohio State claimed the Big 10 with an overtime win over Iowa, but as usual the conservative style of Jim Tressell made the game practically unwatchable. Ohio State has not played in a Rose Bowl since 1996 so to see them go against a Pac 10 team in Pasadena should be good. I can’t wait to see if their near top-ranked defense can handle a team with a good offense (my apologies to Penn State, Iowa and the rest of the Big 10-MAC schedule OSU plays). They didn’t handle the SEC’s best over the years in BCS losses and should get a great test against Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State or Arizona, who are all alive for the other Rose Bowl berth.
Florida was able to handle a great effort from South Carolina in Columbia and now can look ahead to Florida State and Alabama. As evidence that the SEC should be knocked down a peg for scheduling cupcake competition, Florida gets a scrimmage against Florida Int’l this Saturday while Alabama goes against Tenn. Chattanooga. At least you have to give Ohio State credit for taking on USC earlier this year. The SEC might as well not play non-conference games if this is the competition they invite.
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati continued their winning ways and are headed for a big showdown for the Big East title and BCS berth. The Panthers handed Charlie Weis another loss while the Bearcats beat West Virginia on Friday night after a questionable night by the officials (again). Texas and Nebraska seem destined to meet in Dallas for the Big 12 Title after both winning Saturday while Georgia Tech sealed a spot against Clemson most likely in the ACC final. The Pac 10 is the most exciting conference in football with as many as 4 teams remaining for the title and at least 4 or 5 games that could have serious implications. Who needs a Conference Title game when you have that. Oh yeah, I forgot, money and sponsors rule the day. I present to you Oregon @ Arizona, presented by Tucson National Credit Union. The Stanford-Cal Big Game presented by Genentech and finally the Oregon-Oregon State Civil War in two weeks presented by Nike. Could work, right?
Top 10
1. Florida – The Gators may not look like last year’s team, but they are undefeated this year and are winning games with defense and just enough offense.
2. Alabama – Nick Saban has his team on a collision course with Florida. But the rivalry against Auburn will be Gene Chizik’s first in the series and Auburn’s offense has the ability but not the consistency. A big upset would ruin the SEC’s dream of a #1-2 title game.
3. TCU – This team continued to dominate against the best competition they face. Wins at Clemson and BYU and Utah in Fort Worth this past week have TCU all but sure of the BCS. Avoid the upset and they have a slight chance for the BCS title game if Alabama and Texas get upset.
4. Texas – I have the Longhorns as the #2 team in Texas. I look at the way TCU plays defense and I think they would stop Colt McCoy and company. I would love to see the old Southwestern Conference, with TCU, Texas, A&M, Tech, Houston and others. TCU might prove they were the best of the bunch this year.
5. Cincinnati – The Bearcats were fortunate to get a TD on a controversial call and beat WV by 3. Pittsburgh awaits in what will be a de facto Big East title game.
6. Georgia Tech – GT trailed Duke 10-0 early before rattling off 49 straight points. Josh Nesbitt is throwing the ball better while the running game continues to dominate. Nobody wants to play this team come Bowl season.
7. Boise State – The Broncos just haven’t done enough to stay above one-loss GT. They don’t play the best competition and they don’t look unstoppable against overmatched teams. Nevada might have a shot at an upset on the Blue Turf in a few weeks.
8. Pittsburgh – The Panthers beat Notre Dame and are looking good for a shot at the BCS. Who knows how good the team really is but we know RB Dion Lewis is legit.
9. Oregon – The Ducks continued to dominate teams in Eugene, but they have been outgained on average in their road games and must beat Arizona in Tucson this week to set up a Civil War for the Rose Bowl. Zona ruined their BCS hopes two years ago, the Ducks remember.
10. Stanford – The Cardinal have two of the biggest upsets of the season in back to back weeks and in my mind are better right now than two-loss teams Ohio State, LSU, Iowa, Penn State. None of those teams have wins over an Oregon or USC. Ohio State lost to USC and Purdue and big wins over Iowa and Penn State doesn’t count so much since those teams have really beat nobody good. LSU lost to Florida and Alabama, but have not beaten any great teams either. That leaves Stanford as the best of the rest. Their only losses were on the road to Arizona and Oregon State, and an early season last second road loss to Wake Forest after questionable officiating. Put the Cardinal on the field with those above mentioned teams and I think Stanford’s offense rules the day. Until those Big 10 teams beat anybody out of conference, they don’t belong in the same conversation as the best teams in the nation.
Saturday Lox Week 11 in Review
Premium
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 16-20
Winners:
Oregon State (-13): 48-21
The Beavers won easily over a Washington team that is on its last legs after starting the year well. Oregon State still has its sights set on a Rose Bowl and revenge against Oregon.
Losers:
BYU (-27.5): 24-19
The Cougars almost gave New Mexico their first win of the year but held on. BYU is not a good road team and even with the big win over Oklahoma has to consider this a disappointing season.
Arizona (+3): 16-24
Cal handled the Wildcats fairly easily and could have won by more if not for multiple turnovers in the red zone by Cal. But Arizona had the cover before Cal RB Shayne Vereen scored on a long TD run late 4th quarter to seal it. Tough loss.
Regular
Last Week: 3-0
Overall: 16-18-2
Winners:
Stanford (+11): 55-21
Toby Gerhart scored three times and had 178 yards rushing but it was Andrew Luck that controlled the game with his feet (61 yards rushing and a TD) and his arm (2 TDs). Harbaugh proved prophetic when he called Luck the best QB in the country, as he has engineered two upsets in a row and has shown off for NFL scouts who wish he was eligible this year. Matt Barkley looked bad in a battle of freshman Pac 10 signal callers, but the whole Stanford team dominated the Trojans. It could be a good rivalry for a few years to come as Barkley and Luck develop and the coaches continue to dislike each other. Stanford and Harbaugh lead the series for now.
Georgia Tech (-14): 49-10
The Yellow Jackets had no problem coming from behind against Duke. They scored at will against an overmatched defense after trailing early. Running, passing and special teams were all in GT’s favor as they clinched a spot in the ACC title game.
Nebraska (-3): 31-17
The Cornhuskers came one step closer to getting a chance at Texas in the Big 12 title by beating Kansas. The defense has been there all season for Nebraska and the offense finally played good enough to get a comfortable win.
Upsets
Last Week: 0-2 (outright upsets)
Overall: 9-13 (outright upsets)
Kansas State and Vanderbilt couldn’t pull the conference upsets as Missouri and Kentucky ruined their chances with strong showings. Both teams get another chance at the upset this week, but have stronger opponents in Nebraska and Tennessee respectively.
Friday, November 13, 2009
College Football Week 11
They Did What? In a Toyota Prius?
As a proud owner of a Toyota Prius I couldn’t help but feel that my image has been tarnished by a few college football players in Knoxville, Tennessee. According to published reports three Tennessee freshmen football players along with a woman are accused of armed robbery after brandishing a pellet gun and asking people for money outside a gas station. The story gets interesting when the victims told police that the attackers fled in a Toyota Prius, which was later pulled over and its occupants arrested on campus. I have been told by authorities the Prius is a secret weapon in robberies because of its quiet engine and ability to sneak up on unsuspecting victims. The school has announced the players, one of whom has yet to make bail (must not have NFL talent), will not travel with the team this weekend. The SEC has released a statement saying that although the players will face discipline from the Conference, it will be taken into consideration that the young men were doing their best to fight global warming and save our natural resources while committing the crime. They expect to be back for the Volunteers final home game against Vanderbilt. OK. Just joking, but would it really surprise you if the school and the conference did try to get the players back soon with some lame excuse. The SEC, the best place to do a crime, because you won’t do the time, if you fill the seats in primetime.
Now onto the games.
Premium Lox
Oregon State (-13) vs. Washington
The Beavers are peaking in November again while the toll of a tough schedule and emotional highs and lows is catching up with the Huskies. With Oregon State at home I expect them to put a lot of pressure on the UW defense with the Rodgers brothers and Canfield at QB and a lot of points will be scored. Unfortunately for UW they will probably be on the wrong side of too many Jacquizz Rodgers celebrations. PICK: Oregon State 41 – Washington 21
BYU (-27.5) @ New Mexico
Not much to be said here. New Mexico is struggling mightily while BYU looks to dominate another lesser foe. The spread is high but if the Cougars show up they should win by two TDs, playing decent should get them a four TD win. PICK: BYU 41 – New Mexico 10
Arizona (+3) (+125) @ California
Arizona’s only conference loss was a fluke interception return for a TD at Washington. Cal is missing its best player for this game yet it still favored at home over the co-leader of the Pac 10. The talent may be similar but Mike Stoops has his team playing much better and more consistent football. Unless Jeff Tedford finds an offense without Best they won’t win this game. It will be close but I will call for the upset. PICK: Arizona 27 – California 24
Regular Lox
Nebraska (-3) @ Kansas
Nebraska comes into Kansas having lost two in a row in Lawrence, including 76-39 two years ago. That should motivate the Cornhuskers plenty, but with a chance to control their own destiny in the Big 12 North they shouldn’t need extra motivation. The Huskers should control the game on defense and get enough out of their anemic offense, against a bad Kansas defense to win the game by a TD. The Under might be a good pick to parlay this game with. PICK: Nebraska 20 – Kansas 13
Georgia Tech (-14) @ Duke
I just don’t see the Blue Devils able to stop the physical GT offense and contain the big play potential of Jonathan Dwyer and company. I have not seen Duke play, but they obviously are having their best season in a long time. I still don’t think they hang with the Yellow Jackets. PICK: Georgia Tech 38 – Duke 20
Stanford (+11) @ USC
After watching Stanford in person roll up 500 yards and 51 points last week over Oregon I believe the Cardinal are better than the 11 point spread. To upset the Trojans would be monumental for Stanford and the way USC has played definitely possible. I expect though the Trojans will play a great game in front of the Homecoming crowd with plenty of motivation two years after the Stanford upset in the Coliseum. But the Cardinal has enough offensive talent and are playing great special teams to make this game close. Andrew Luck just might prove he is the better of the Freshman Pac 10 QBs, but Matt Barkley will get his chance against a suspect Stanford defense. Toby Gerhart will need to continue where he left off against the Ducks (223 yards, 3 TDs) and give his usual 135 yard effort for Stanford to have a chance. But look for other names to help out Jim Harbaugh's offense. Gerhart is the leader but the difference between this year and last for Stanford is the rest of the offense has caught up to the talent of Toby. I expect USC to have a lead in this game but Stanford will keep it close with a chance to pull the upset. I won’t make a final score prediction because I will be cheering for the Cardinal, but I’ll take the points and hope for a good, hard fought game with two coaches who don’t like each other.
Upset Specials
Vanderbilt (+4.5) (+145) vs. Kentucky
Battle for the Basement of the SEC East. Vanderbilt needs to win some time and at home should get the job done against a mediocre Kentucky team. PICK: Vanderbilt 19 – Kentucky 17
Kansas State (+1.5) (+110) vs. Missouri
This may be a cheap upset but Missouri is favored over the Big 12 North leaders and with Kansas State at home I expect them to continue winning. At least until a showdown with Nebraska next week. PICK: Kansas State 27 – Missouri 24
Have a good weekend of football everyone and watch out for those Toyota Prius' this weekend, especially on dark streets at night.
As a proud owner of a Toyota Prius I couldn’t help but feel that my image has been tarnished by a few college football players in Knoxville, Tennessee. According to published reports three Tennessee freshmen football players along with a woman are accused of armed robbery after brandishing a pellet gun and asking people for money outside a gas station. The story gets interesting when the victims told police that the attackers fled in a Toyota Prius, which was later pulled over and its occupants arrested on campus. I have been told by authorities the Prius is a secret weapon in robberies because of its quiet engine and ability to sneak up on unsuspecting victims. The school has announced the players, one of whom has yet to make bail (must not have NFL talent), will not travel with the team this weekend. The SEC has released a statement saying that although the players will face discipline from the Conference, it will be taken into consideration that the young men were doing their best to fight global warming and save our natural resources while committing the crime. They expect to be back for the Volunteers final home game against Vanderbilt. OK. Just joking, but would it really surprise you if the school and the conference did try to get the players back soon with some lame excuse. The SEC, the best place to do a crime, because you won’t do the time, if you fill the seats in primetime.
Now onto the games.
Premium Lox
Oregon State (-13) vs. Washington
The Beavers are peaking in November again while the toll of a tough schedule and emotional highs and lows is catching up with the Huskies. With Oregon State at home I expect them to put a lot of pressure on the UW defense with the Rodgers brothers and Canfield at QB and a lot of points will be scored. Unfortunately for UW they will probably be on the wrong side of too many Jacquizz Rodgers celebrations. PICK: Oregon State 41 – Washington 21
BYU (-27.5) @ New Mexico
Not much to be said here. New Mexico is struggling mightily while BYU looks to dominate another lesser foe. The spread is high but if the Cougars show up they should win by two TDs, playing decent should get them a four TD win. PICK: BYU 41 – New Mexico 10
Arizona (+3) (+125) @ California
Arizona’s only conference loss was a fluke interception return for a TD at Washington. Cal is missing its best player for this game yet it still favored at home over the co-leader of the Pac 10. The talent may be similar but Mike Stoops has his team playing much better and more consistent football. Unless Jeff Tedford finds an offense without Best they won’t win this game. It will be close but I will call for the upset. PICK: Arizona 27 – California 24
Regular Lox
Nebraska (-3) @ Kansas
Nebraska comes into Kansas having lost two in a row in Lawrence, including 76-39 two years ago. That should motivate the Cornhuskers plenty, but with a chance to control their own destiny in the Big 12 North they shouldn’t need extra motivation. The Huskers should control the game on defense and get enough out of their anemic offense, against a bad Kansas defense to win the game by a TD. The Under might be a good pick to parlay this game with. PICK: Nebraska 20 – Kansas 13
Georgia Tech (-14) @ Duke
I just don’t see the Blue Devils able to stop the physical GT offense and contain the big play potential of Jonathan Dwyer and company. I have not seen Duke play, but they obviously are having their best season in a long time. I still don’t think they hang with the Yellow Jackets. PICK: Georgia Tech 38 – Duke 20
Stanford (+11) @ USC
After watching Stanford in person roll up 500 yards and 51 points last week over Oregon I believe the Cardinal are better than the 11 point spread. To upset the Trojans would be monumental for Stanford and the way USC has played definitely possible. I expect though the Trojans will play a great game in front of the Homecoming crowd with plenty of motivation two years after the Stanford upset in the Coliseum. But the Cardinal has enough offensive talent and are playing great special teams to make this game close. Andrew Luck just might prove he is the better of the Freshman Pac 10 QBs, but Matt Barkley will get his chance against a suspect Stanford defense. Toby Gerhart will need to continue where he left off against the Ducks (223 yards, 3 TDs) and give his usual 135 yard effort for Stanford to have a chance. But look for other names to help out Jim Harbaugh's offense. Gerhart is the leader but the difference between this year and last for Stanford is the rest of the offense has caught up to the talent of Toby. I expect USC to have a lead in this game but Stanford will keep it close with a chance to pull the upset. I won’t make a final score prediction because I will be cheering for the Cardinal, but I’ll take the points and hope for a good, hard fought game with two coaches who don’t like each other.
Upset Specials
Vanderbilt (+4.5) (+145) vs. Kentucky
Battle for the Basement of the SEC East. Vanderbilt needs to win some time and at home should get the job done against a mediocre Kentucky team. PICK: Vanderbilt 19 – Kentucky 17
Kansas State (+1.5) (+110) vs. Missouri
This may be a cheap upset but Missouri is favored over the Big 12 North leaders and with Kansas State at home I expect them to continue winning. At least until a showdown with Nebraska next week. PICK: Kansas State 27 – Missouri 24
Have a good weekend of football everyone and watch out for those Toyota Prius' this weekend, especially on dark streets at night.
Week 10 in Review
Now that the first Saturday of November is behind us and the weekly Iowa Hawkeyes miracle comeback story is no more, it is time to look at which teams will be left standing come January and which players will be planning trips to Manhattan for a certain award.
1. Florida – Not that the Gators have been any more impressive, but I believe they have shown enough to jump over Alabama and into the number one spot. The December 5th SEC Championship is already decided and these teams must not slip up before then to insure a #1-#2 matchup for what SEC fans will call the real National Championship game. South Carolina this week may be Florida’s toughest test until then. Spurrier has yet to beat his former school.
2. Alabama – The Tide has shown a few chinks in their armor and without star performances from Mark Ingram and Julio Jones would not be sitting here undefeated. And the performance of DT Terrance Cody in the Tennessee game with the blocked field goals was pretty impressive in itself. Tide fans are calling for Ingram to win the first Heisman in history for the program while Cody and LB Rolando McClain are being mentioned as the best players on that side of the ball.
3. Texas – The Longhorns continued their dominance Saturday vs. UCF and the only teams standing in their way are Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M; then the Big 12 Championship against either Nebraska or Kansas State most likely. The rivalry game on Thanksgiving Day in College Station won’t be easy, the home team is 9-4 in the series since the Big 12 began and A&M upset Colt McCoy and company two years ago.
4. Cincinnati – The Bearcats face a difficult test Friday with West Virginia visiting. We will get to see if the Bearcats defense can run with Noel Devine, Jock Sanders and the athletes on the Mountaineers offense. Coach Brian Kelly is already being rumored to Notre Dame once Charlie Weis’ tenure is up, but for now he has his team playing great behind a new starting QB, while his former starter Tony Pike may see some snaps Friday but as a backup. It is great to be a Bearcat right now.
5. TCU – The last real test for TCU comes in this weekend and Utah will be gunning for a win and the conference championship. The Horned Frogs are led on defense by DE Jerry Hughes, who is in the conversation for postseason awards while his team quietly continues its perfect season. It has been an impressive year for Gary Patterson’s TCU team and the MWC as a whole. Utah’s only loss is to Oregon, BYU beat Oklahoma but lost to Florida State, while TCU has won at Virginia and Clemson. The top tier of this conference I would argue could compete on a week to week basis with the Big 10.
6. Boise State – The Broncos did not impress the national audience that saw them win a close game at Louisiana Tech last Friday night. Kellen Moore played just OK at QB with his interception returned for a TD by Tech a big momentum changer that made the game close. Boise must root for Utah this weekend and for the possible one and two loss BCS contenders to continue falling. That means USC, Penn State, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. Believe it or not because LSU can’t be in the BCS as a third member of the SEC, if Georgia Tech wins the ACC, Cincinnati the Big East, Texas the Big 12 and Oregon in the Pac 10, the only teams left for the 3 at-large spots it would seem are Boise, TCU, USC, Arizona, the trio from the Big 10 (which I hope does not happen with the Big 10’s showing lately), and Pittsburgh. No Big 12 teams would appear worthy and the ACC has little chance with Virginia Tech and Miami faltering. This could be the prime year to test if the BCS would ignore a second undefeated team from outside the major conferences to take a 3-loss Notre Dame, Ohio State or Penn State. We’ll see if those teams falter but it would seem Notre Dame has little chance with 3 losses already. I’ll tell you right now I would rather watch figure skating than see one of those teams in a BCS game over an undefeated Boise. Yes Boise would most likely suffer multiple losses in a major conference but they deserve an opportunity to prove their legitimacy on the big stage as Utah did last year. Let them flame out like Hawaii or step up like Utah. Either way it is more entertaining to see than a mediocre traditional power play uninspired football on the big stage.
7. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets continue to win, although Wake Forest gave them perhaps their toughest win of the year. They survived in OT and only have Duke left to win the ACC Coastal. A rematch with Clemson may be on the horizon in the ACC Championship, a hard fought game earlier won by GT in Atlanta. Nesbitt and Dwyer continue to run teams over in Paul Johnson’s Triple Option offense. The Jackets will be a tough matchup for any team and Duke will have a long week of recuperating after this game whether win or lose. GT remains a favorite to represent the conference in the BCS for the first time.
8. Pittsburgh – Who would have thought the loss to NC State would be so significant to this team. The Panthers have the one trip up in September but have not lost since. Notre Dame, Cincinnati and West Virginia are left on the schedule so time will tell if Dave Wannstedt’s team is for real. RB Dion Lewis may be the best freshman in the land though and he has made the whole offense including QB Bill Stull a lot better. If Pitt wins the Big East or does enough to be in a January Bowl game then you will know Lewis had a great 3 games. It starts with the Irish this Saturday under the lights at Heinz Field with a national audience watching Pittsburgh football. Nobody has said that for a while.
9. Oregon – The best of the two-loss teams I believe, the Ducks got feathered in Palo Alto on Saturday but still stand a good chance at the Rose Bowl. The difference I see in Oregon compared to other two loss teams LSU, Ohio State, Penn State and others is a signature win that the Ducks have. Although the USC game is a bit dulled by the 51 points given up to Stanford, the Ducks have proven to be a force on offense and their defense has just this one blemish. As Chip Kelly said after the loss to Stanford, most teams can’t stop Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck on offense. We’ll see if the Trojans can in the Coliseum this week while the Ducks return home to face ASU before the big game in Tucson.
10. LSU – The only losses suffered by the Bayou Bengals are to the top two teams in the country. That separates them from the Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, Trojans, Hurricanes and others that would like to get back in the top 10. Iowa and Ohio State meet this weekend with the winner the likely conference champion and Rose Bowl representative. LSU has no such big games remaining because of the teams in front of them control the SEC but a trip to Oxford to face Ole Miss in two weeks is a revenge game for last year’s blowout in Baton Rouge. We’ll see if Les Miles can keep his team together after last year’s disappointing regular season finish. They lost to Alabama last year and went on to barely beat Troy and lose to Ole Miss and Arkansas to end the season. Tigers fans will be hoping for a 10 win season and bragging rights over their SEC West rivals.
For Conference Supremacy Look West
The Pac 10 is the highest ranked conference in 4 of the 6 BCS computers and for good reason. I usually don't take much from the computers but this year the play on the field matches what the computers say. The conference may not have national champion contenders like the SEC but top to bottom no conference is more balanced and better. UCLA and Cal went undefeated non-conference, but have struggled mightily against the Pac 10. The Bruins won at Tennessee and beat Kansas State at home yet were 0-5 in the Pac 10 until their win over Washington last week. Tennessee has proven to be a solid SEC team and will make a bowl playing in that conference, while Kansas State leads the Big 12 North for the time being and is a power in the weak Big 12. But neither team could beat a bottom feeder in the Pac 10. Don’t be surprised. The fact is the dominance of USC has overshadowed the Pac 10 as a whole for the entire decade, yet this year programs at Arizona and Stanford have risen from the dead to contend for the Rose Bowl, while the Oregon schools continue to play solid football year in and year out. The only easy win in the Pac 10 is Washington State and since it is the only conference that plays nine games, that means 5 more losses are endured by Pac 10 teams each year than their BCS brethren.
The SEC has the top teams in the country and with 3 National Champions in a row you must beat the SEC to win a championship, but after Florida, Alabama and LSU, the SEC is not impressive. Yes most teams can pull an upset on any given week, and most teams have a standout player that will be a high draft pick, but Tennessee, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Georgia and Auburn, et al. have not been top tier football teams this year and cannot blame the conference schedule. I find it funny that when USC loses to a Washington or Oregon State, the national media say it is another bad loss for the Trojans. But when Florida loses to Ole Miss it is forgiven because the supposed strength of the SEC. To sum up the national obsession with the SEC and show that the facts don’t line up with the hype I stole a quote from Houston Nutt, current Ole Miss and former Arkansas coach in a recent story on the SEC supremacy in Sports Illustrated.
“I watch teams in the other conferences all the time and I think, Boy, I’d like to play them.”
Well Coach Nutt you have in fact played teams from the “other” conferences and unfortunately for your teams the results have not been impressive. Over 5 years at Arkansas and Ole Miss Houston Nutt is 1-6 against other BCS conference schools. Losses to USC and Texas in that span are understandable, but Wake Forest, Wisconsin and Missouri are games the SEC should win if they proclaim to be superior. The fact is experts and SEC fans like to say a middle-to-bottom tier SEC team would win or compete for the title in most other conferences, but that is simply not true. The Pac 10 this year is as good as any conference top to bottom and there really is no legitimate argument to the contrary. The SEC has the most tradition and the most raucous stadiums, but just because 105,000 drunk and crazy Tennessee fans file into Neyland Stadium each Saturday does not make them a better team than a mediocre bunch from the Pac 10 that only draws 30,000 fans.
Heisman Race Still Taking Shape
Mark Ingram of Alabama is the favorite on ESPN while Tebow and McCoy are duking it out on other websites and in the national media. I fail to understand how these two still are favorites when their numbers don’t match up to last year’s stats and in the games that mattered most, both QBs played sub par. McCoy has played better since the Oklahoma performance where he was absolutely dreadful and any other player would have been left for dead, while Tebow has been just average in their big wins over LSU and Tennessee. McCoy is getting the sympathy vote because many thought he deserved the award last year but I would ask any voter to watch the Sooners game again before they fill out that ballot. Jordan Shipley would actually get my vote for MVP of Texas as he has been a force on special teams and McCoy’s best weapon on offense. While Tebow gets the tough guy vote for coming back strong after his concussion I still think that he has not been the best player in college football this year.
If I had a vote today neither one would be in my top 3. Mark Ingram deserves heavy consideration, CJ Spiller from Clemson has been phenomenal returning 4 kicks for TDs and carrying the offense on the ground, while Toby Gerhart from Stanford is second in the nation in rushing yards with 16 TDs. Hard to argue with that trio of running backs. Gerhart has done it week in and week out and gets his biggest stage this Saturday at USC. With another big performance and a Stanford win it would be really hard to ignore him. And for the first time since Charles Woodson struck the Heisman pose for Michigan a defensive player should get consideration this year. DT Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska, featured in this space all season and LB McClain from Alabama have been game changers on defense and deserve consideration for what they have done for their teams. Either way it is the first time in recent history there is not a clear favorite or group of favorites heading into the final weeks of the season. Tebow or McCoy will most likely win on name recognition and team performance and because voters will watch them play in the Conference Championship games after most other teams have finished the season. It is a shame though that the majority of voters will not have watched guys like Spiller, Gerhart, Keenum from Houston or any number of players worthy of a vote, actually play football. Similar to the rankings, the Heisman is a popularity contest and if your team is not on TV in a prime time slot, then you will be overlooked in favor of the beauty queens from Florida or Texas. Next up Colt McCoy will perform his special talent and then it is on to the evening gown competition.
Week 10 In Review
Premium Lox
Week 10: 2-1
Overall: 15-18
Winners:
Oregon State (+7): 31-14
The Beavers rolled into Berkeley and ended any hope of Cal playing in January. Jahvid Best was knocked out of the game which certainly hurt the Bears’ chances but Oregon State played great to pull the upset and continue their season with faint hopes of a Rose Bowl.
Northwestern (+15.5): 17-10
The Wildcats pulled off the upset over Iowa by sending starting QB Ricky Stanzi to the sideline injured and limiting an Iowa offense that had made many comebacks over the past month. Although I didn’t expect the outright upset Northwestern did and they sent the Hawkeyes reeling into their showdown with Ohio State this week.
Loser:
West Virginia (-17): 17-9
I can’t quite get a read on the Mountaineers as they sometimes look unstoppable on offense and lost on defense and then a game like this occurs and they can’t score much of anything but the defense steps up and dominates. Louisville played them tough but couldn’t get enough points. The Mountaineers still have a shot at the Big East title and need a big win on Friday night in Cincinnati.
Regular Lox
Week 10: 1-2
Overall: 13-18-2
Winner:
Navy (+13): 23-21
Although Notre Dame gave this game away with turnovers and missed field goals the Midshipmen were never trailing and got their second win over the Irish in 3 years. Pretty impressive stuff for Navy and maybe the final nail in Charlie Weis’ coffin. With tough games at Pitt and Stanford remaining the Irish could be looking at a 5 loss season after many were excited for a chance to get back to the BCS.
Losers:
Wisconsin (-11): 31-28
After leading comfortably through most of the half Wisconsin couldn’t put Indiana away while the Hoosiers continued to lose close games. I bet on the Badgers one too many times but they have still been a good source of wins this year.
Penn State (-5): 7-24
Ohio State showed who the best team in the Big 10 is (for a week at least) and avenged the loss to Penn State in Columbus last year. Joe Paterno can’t seem to win the big games while his offense fell silent against good competition again. You can almost bet the only way the Nittany Lions beat a top team is to keep them in single digits.
Upset Specials
Week 10: 2-0 (outright upsets)
Overall: 9-11 (outright upsets)
Kansas State (+3) beat rival Kansas to hold onto the Big 12 North lead and look ahead now to games against Missouri and Nebraska. Oregon State was other upset winner and adds to the list of money line winners.
A few games continue to hurt my chances of getting back to even and eventually to profitability. But November is a long month and with the holidays coming up there is no better time to believe in miracles. While Las Vegas concentrates on the NBA and watching out for rogue referees and the NFL season nears its midway point this is the time of year to find the hidden gems of the college football betting world that nobody else is seeing. Check back for the Saturday Lox of Week 11 and for a rundown of all the best games.
1. Florida – Not that the Gators have been any more impressive, but I believe they have shown enough to jump over Alabama and into the number one spot. The December 5th SEC Championship is already decided and these teams must not slip up before then to insure a #1-#2 matchup for what SEC fans will call the real National Championship game. South Carolina this week may be Florida’s toughest test until then. Spurrier has yet to beat his former school.
2. Alabama – The Tide has shown a few chinks in their armor and without star performances from Mark Ingram and Julio Jones would not be sitting here undefeated. And the performance of DT Terrance Cody in the Tennessee game with the blocked field goals was pretty impressive in itself. Tide fans are calling for Ingram to win the first Heisman in history for the program while Cody and LB Rolando McClain are being mentioned as the best players on that side of the ball.
3. Texas – The Longhorns continued their dominance Saturday vs. UCF and the only teams standing in their way are Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M; then the Big 12 Championship against either Nebraska or Kansas State most likely. The rivalry game on Thanksgiving Day in College Station won’t be easy, the home team is 9-4 in the series since the Big 12 began and A&M upset Colt McCoy and company two years ago.
4. Cincinnati – The Bearcats face a difficult test Friday with West Virginia visiting. We will get to see if the Bearcats defense can run with Noel Devine, Jock Sanders and the athletes on the Mountaineers offense. Coach Brian Kelly is already being rumored to Notre Dame once Charlie Weis’ tenure is up, but for now he has his team playing great behind a new starting QB, while his former starter Tony Pike may see some snaps Friday but as a backup. It is great to be a Bearcat right now.
5. TCU – The last real test for TCU comes in this weekend and Utah will be gunning for a win and the conference championship. The Horned Frogs are led on defense by DE Jerry Hughes, who is in the conversation for postseason awards while his team quietly continues its perfect season. It has been an impressive year for Gary Patterson’s TCU team and the MWC as a whole. Utah’s only loss is to Oregon, BYU beat Oklahoma but lost to Florida State, while TCU has won at Virginia and Clemson. The top tier of this conference I would argue could compete on a week to week basis with the Big 10.
6. Boise State – The Broncos did not impress the national audience that saw them win a close game at Louisiana Tech last Friday night. Kellen Moore played just OK at QB with his interception returned for a TD by Tech a big momentum changer that made the game close. Boise must root for Utah this weekend and for the possible one and two loss BCS contenders to continue falling. That means USC, Penn State, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. Believe it or not because LSU can’t be in the BCS as a third member of the SEC, if Georgia Tech wins the ACC, Cincinnati the Big East, Texas the Big 12 and Oregon in the Pac 10, the only teams left for the 3 at-large spots it would seem are Boise, TCU, USC, Arizona, the trio from the Big 10 (which I hope does not happen with the Big 10’s showing lately), and Pittsburgh. No Big 12 teams would appear worthy and the ACC has little chance with Virginia Tech and Miami faltering. This could be the prime year to test if the BCS would ignore a second undefeated team from outside the major conferences to take a 3-loss Notre Dame, Ohio State or Penn State. We’ll see if those teams falter but it would seem Notre Dame has little chance with 3 losses already. I’ll tell you right now I would rather watch figure skating than see one of those teams in a BCS game over an undefeated Boise. Yes Boise would most likely suffer multiple losses in a major conference but they deserve an opportunity to prove their legitimacy on the big stage as Utah did last year. Let them flame out like Hawaii or step up like Utah. Either way it is more entertaining to see than a mediocre traditional power play uninspired football on the big stage.
7. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets continue to win, although Wake Forest gave them perhaps their toughest win of the year. They survived in OT and only have Duke left to win the ACC Coastal. A rematch with Clemson may be on the horizon in the ACC Championship, a hard fought game earlier won by GT in Atlanta. Nesbitt and Dwyer continue to run teams over in Paul Johnson’s Triple Option offense. The Jackets will be a tough matchup for any team and Duke will have a long week of recuperating after this game whether win or lose. GT remains a favorite to represent the conference in the BCS for the first time.
8. Pittsburgh – Who would have thought the loss to NC State would be so significant to this team. The Panthers have the one trip up in September but have not lost since. Notre Dame, Cincinnati and West Virginia are left on the schedule so time will tell if Dave Wannstedt’s team is for real. RB Dion Lewis may be the best freshman in the land though and he has made the whole offense including QB Bill Stull a lot better. If Pitt wins the Big East or does enough to be in a January Bowl game then you will know Lewis had a great 3 games. It starts with the Irish this Saturday under the lights at Heinz Field with a national audience watching Pittsburgh football. Nobody has said that for a while.
9. Oregon – The best of the two-loss teams I believe, the Ducks got feathered in Palo Alto on Saturday but still stand a good chance at the Rose Bowl. The difference I see in Oregon compared to other two loss teams LSU, Ohio State, Penn State and others is a signature win that the Ducks have. Although the USC game is a bit dulled by the 51 points given up to Stanford, the Ducks have proven to be a force on offense and their defense has just this one blemish. As Chip Kelly said after the loss to Stanford, most teams can’t stop Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck on offense. We’ll see if the Trojans can in the Coliseum this week while the Ducks return home to face ASU before the big game in Tucson.
10. LSU – The only losses suffered by the Bayou Bengals are to the top two teams in the country. That separates them from the Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, Trojans, Hurricanes and others that would like to get back in the top 10. Iowa and Ohio State meet this weekend with the winner the likely conference champion and Rose Bowl representative. LSU has no such big games remaining because of the teams in front of them control the SEC but a trip to Oxford to face Ole Miss in two weeks is a revenge game for last year’s blowout in Baton Rouge. We’ll see if Les Miles can keep his team together after last year’s disappointing regular season finish. They lost to Alabama last year and went on to barely beat Troy and lose to Ole Miss and Arkansas to end the season. Tigers fans will be hoping for a 10 win season and bragging rights over their SEC West rivals.
For Conference Supremacy Look West
The Pac 10 is the highest ranked conference in 4 of the 6 BCS computers and for good reason. I usually don't take much from the computers but this year the play on the field matches what the computers say. The conference may not have national champion contenders like the SEC but top to bottom no conference is more balanced and better. UCLA and Cal went undefeated non-conference, but have struggled mightily against the Pac 10. The Bruins won at Tennessee and beat Kansas State at home yet were 0-5 in the Pac 10 until their win over Washington last week. Tennessee has proven to be a solid SEC team and will make a bowl playing in that conference, while Kansas State leads the Big 12 North for the time being and is a power in the weak Big 12. But neither team could beat a bottom feeder in the Pac 10. Don’t be surprised. The fact is the dominance of USC has overshadowed the Pac 10 as a whole for the entire decade, yet this year programs at Arizona and Stanford have risen from the dead to contend for the Rose Bowl, while the Oregon schools continue to play solid football year in and year out. The only easy win in the Pac 10 is Washington State and since it is the only conference that plays nine games, that means 5 more losses are endured by Pac 10 teams each year than their BCS brethren.
The SEC has the top teams in the country and with 3 National Champions in a row you must beat the SEC to win a championship, but after Florida, Alabama and LSU, the SEC is not impressive. Yes most teams can pull an upset on any given week, and most teams have a standout player that will be a high draft pick, but Tennessee, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Georgia and Auburn, et al. have not been top tier football teams this year and cannot blame the conference schedule. I find it funny that when USC loses to a Washington or Oregon State, the national media say it is another bad loss for the Trojans. But when Florida loses to Ole Miss it is forgiven because the supposed strength of the SEC. To sum up the national obsession with the SEC and show that the facts don’t line up with the hype I stole a quote from Houston Nutt, current Ole Miss and former Arkansas coach in a recent story on the SEC supremacy in Sports Illustrated.
“I watch teams in the other conferences all the time and I think, Boy, I’d like to play them.”
Well Coach Nutt you have in fact played teams from the “other” conferences and unfortunately for your teams the results have not been impressive. Over 5 years at Arkansas and Ole Miss Houston Nutt is 1-6 against other BCS conference schools. Losses to USC and Texas in that span are understandable, but Wake Forest, Wisconsin and Missouri are games the SEC should win if they proclaim to be superior. The fact is experts and SEC fans like to say a middle-to-bottom tier SEC team would win or compete for the title in most other conferences, but that is simply not true. The Pac 10 this year is as good as any conference top to bottom and there really is no legitimate argument to the contrary. The SEC has the most tradition and the most raucous stadiums, but just because 105,000 drunk and crazy Tennessee fans file into Neyland Stadium each Saturday does not make them a better team than a mediocre bunch from the Pac 10 that only draws 30,000 fans.
Heisman Race Still Taking Shape
Mark Ingram of Alabama is the favorite on ESPN while Tebow and McCoy are duking it out on other websites and in the national media. I fail to understand how these two still are favorites when their numbers don’t match up to last year’s stats and in the games that mattered most, both QBs played sub par. McCoy has played better since the Oklahoma performance where he was absolutely dreadful and any other player would have been left for dead, while Tebow has been just average in their big wins over LSU and Tennessee. McCoy is getting the sympathy vote because many thought he deserved the award last year but I would ask any voter to watch the Sooners game again before they fill out that ballot. Jordan Shipley would actually get my vote for MVP of Texas as he has been a force on special teams and McCoy’s best weapon on offense. While Tebow gets the tough guy vote for coming back strong after his concussion I still think that he has not been the best player in college football this year.
If I had a vote today neither one would be in my top 3. Mark Ingram deserves heavy consideration, CJ Spiller from Clemson has been phenomenal returning 4 kicks for TDs and carrying the offense on the ground, while Toby Gerhart from Stanford is second in the nation in rushing yards with 16 TDs. Hard to argue with that trio of running backs. Gerhart has done it week in and week out and gets his biggest stage this Saturday at USC. With another big performance and a Stanford win it would be really hard to ignore him. And for the first time since Charles Woodson struck the Heisman pose for Michigan a defensive player should get consideration this year. DT Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska, featured in this space all season and LB McClain from Alabama have been game changers on defense and deserve consideration for what they have done for their teams. Either way it is the first time in recent history there is not a clear favorite or group of favorites heading into the final weeks of the season. Tebow or McCoy will most likely win on name recognition and team performance and because voters will watch them play in the Conference Championship games after most other teams have finished the season. It is a shame though that the majority of voters will not have watched guys like Spiller, Gerhart, Keenum from Houston or any number of players worthy of a vote, actually play football. Similar to the rankings, the Heisman is a popularity contest and if your team is not on TV in a prime time slot, then you will be overlooked in favor of the beauty queens from Florida or Texas. Next up Colt McCoy will perform his special talent and then it is on to the evening gown competition.
Week 10 In Review
Premium Lox
Week 10: 2-1
Overall: 15-18
Winners:
Oregon State (+7): 31-14
The Beavers rolled into Berkeley and ended any hope of Cal playing in January. Jahvid Best was knocked out of the game which certainly hurt the Bears’ chances but Oregon State played great to pull the upset and continue their season with faint hopes of a Rose Bowl.
Northwestern (+15.5): 17-10
The Wildcats pulled off the upset over Iowa by sending starting QB Ricky Stanzi to the sideline injured and limiting an Iowa offense that had made many comebacks over the past month. Although I didn’t expect the outright upset Northwestern did and they sent the Hawkeyes reeling into their showdown with Ohio State this week.
Loser:
West Virginia (-17): 17-9
I can’t quite get a read on the Mountaineers as they sometimes look unstoppable on offense and lost on defense and then a game like this occurs and they can’t score much of anything but the defense steps up and dominates. Louisville played them tough but couldn’t get enough points. The Mountaineers still have a shot at the Big East title and need a big win on Friday night in Cincinnati.
Regular Lox
Week 10: 1-2
Overall: 13-18-2
Winner:
Navy (+13): 23-21
Although Notre Dame gave this game away with turnovers and missed field goals the Midshipmen were never trailing and got their second win over the Irish in 3 years. Pretty impressive stuff for Navy and maybe the final nail in Charlie Weis’ coffin. With tough games at Pitt and Stanford remaining the Irish could be looking at a 5 loss season after many were excited for a chance to get back to the BCS.
Losers:
Wisconsin (-11): 31-28
After leading comfortably through most of the half Wisconsin couldn’t put Indiana away while the Hoosiers continued to lose close games. I bet on the Badgers one too many times but they have still been a good source of wins this year.
Penn State (-5): 7-24
Ohio State showed who the best team in the Big 10 is (for a week at least) and avenged the loss to Penn State in Columbus last year. Joe Paterno can’t seem to win the big games while his offense fell silent against good competition again. You can almost bet the only way the Nittany Lions beat a top team is to keep them in single digits.
Upset Specials
Week 10: 2-0 (outright upsets)
Overall: 9-11 (outright upsets)
Kansas State (+3) beat rival Kansas to hold onto the Big 12 North lead and look ahead now to games against Missouri and Nebraska. Oregon State was other upset winner and adds to the list of money line winners.
A few games continue to hurt my chances of getting back to even and eventually to profitability. But November is a long month and with the holidays coming up there is no better time to believe in miracles. While Las Vegas concentrates on the NBA and watching out for rogue referees and the NFL season nears its midway point this is the time of year to find the hidden gems of the college football betting world that nobody else is seeing. Check back for the Saturday Lox of Week 11 and for a rundown of all the best games.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Week 10 College Football
Saturday Lox Week 10
The first weekend of November brings the first of what is many conference deciding games. Champions will be separated from the contenders starting this weekend in Tuscaloosa with LSU and Alabama playing what is billed as the SEC West title game. Up North the Big 10 will play an elimination game of sorts when one-loss foes Ohio State and Penn State meet in Happy Valley. With a win here the Buckeyes have a chance to beat Iowa and claim the Big 10. Penn State needs to win here and hope they earn a BCS berth as a one-loss team.
A great rivalry is also renewed in Lincoln, Nebraska when the home team welcomes Oklahoma. In what used to be the Big 8’s greatest rivalry, the Cornhuskers look to stop a losing streak that dates back to 2001. Both teams have a lot to play for even with three losses each, with Nebraska trying to win the Big 12 North and the Sooners still a factor in the South. Should be a great game under the lights in Lincoln.
Farther out West is another test awaiting Oregon. Who would have thought the Ducks would be sitting pretty as Rose Bowl favorites after the week 1 implosion in Boise. But here they are, undefeated and ranked 8th in the BCS with only Arizona within a game of their lead. But Stanford has been looking forward to this game since a last second loss in Eugene last year and has a week to prepare (or more precisely a week of nightmares watching the USC film) for this home game. The last time Oregon won the Pac 10 in 2001 the only loss Joey Harrington and company endured was to Stanford after an onside kick led to a Cardinal comeback. That loss cost the Ducks a chance at the National Title game that season. Could history repeat itself this week and Stanford ruin the Ducks’ season once again. Yours truly will be in Palo Alto to find out. I expect a great offensive game and hopefully Stanford makes it one for the ages.
Premium Lox
Oregon State (+7) @ California
While the Bears have played well since the Oregon-USC losses, they barely got by ASU last week while the Beavers beat UCLA. I think the Beavers are equally as good and this game could go either way. Jahvid Best and Jacquizz Rodgers will be fun to watch on offense and eventually the overall talent of the Beavers will be the difference. PICK: Oregon State 34 – Cal 31
West Virginia (-17.5) vs. Louisville
With the Mountaineers coming off their first loss of Big East play to South Florida I expect them to be hungry and focused. Louisville has lost big to the good teams on their schedule and don’t have much left to play for. Jarrett Brown will throw all over the field and Noel Devine will run free and West Virginia should win easily. PICK: 35 – 13
Northwestern (+15.5) @ Iowa
Yes the Hawkeyes find ways to win each and every week. But after last week’s six turnover debacle they won’t be throwing the ball all over the field and will look to play ball control offense as usual. Northwestern has a knack for playing close games and Iowa has not blown anyone out this year. I see a low scoring game with Iowa holding on for their tenth win but Northwestern staying close. PICK: Iowa 23 – Northwestern 14
Regular Lox
Penn State (-5) vs. Ohio State
Terrelle Pryor returns to his home state and the school he shunned to go to Columbus. Penn State QB Darryl Clark is playing tremendous football and could be the Big 10 Player of the Year. The Nittany Lions will try to beat Ohio State for the second year in a row and this time have the home field edge, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record. I expect a close, low-scoring game for 3 quarters and Penn State pulling away in the fourth quarter behind the dual threat Clark. The defense will ultimately be the difference though as Pryor and company will struggle putting drives together and will be limited in big plays. PICK: Penn State 23 – Ohio State 13
Navy (+13) @ Notre Dame
The Midshipmen travel to South bend off a tough loss to Temple. They beat the Irish two years ago and made a big comeback before falling last year. Navy gets its QB Ricky Dobbs back for this game and he will make a big difference in leading the spread offense. Notre Dame will put up a lot of points but will give them up as well. Navy is an amazing 8-0 ATS at Notre Dame Stadium including the upset two years ago. Notre Dame also has not covered a spread as a favorite since the opening week win over Nevada. I like those odds and will take Navy to cover and keep the streak of Irish thrilling games intact. PICK: Notre Dame 37 – Navy 31
Wisconsin (-11) @ Indiana
I’m going with the Badgers two weeks in a row as I think this team is on a mission to prove the losses to Ohio State and Iowa were on them. Indiana had its own chance at the upset at Iowa last week but fell apart in the final period and lost bad. It was a demoralizing loss for a young, rebuilding program and they might not be focused enough to stop the bruising attack the Badgers will bring into Bloomington. I expect a lot of rushing yards from Wisconsin with Indiana not able to keep up on either side of the ball. PICK: Wisconsin 35 – Indiana 13
Upset Special
Kansas State (+3) over Kansas
I like Kansas State at home over a Jayhawk team that is reeling. Kansas State leads the Big 12 North and has a chance to take a commanding advantage with an upset here and a Nebraska loss to Oklahoma. This game might not show up on the national radar but nothing is bigger in Kansas right now. A rivalry dominated by Kansas State over the years but recently by Mark Mangino and Kansas, we’ll see if Bill Snyder brings a win back to Manhattan, KS.
The first weekend of November brings the first of what is many conference deciding games. Champions will be separated from the contenders starting this weekend in Tuscaloosa with LSU and Alabama playing what is billed as the SEC West title game. Up North the Big 10 will play an elimination game of sorts when one-loss foes Ohio State and Penn State meet in Happy Valley. With a win here the Buckeyes have a chance to beat Iowa and claim the Big 10. Penn State needs to win here and hope they earn a BCS berth as a one-loss team.
A great rivalry is also renewed in Lincoln, Nebraska when the home team welcomes Oklahoma. In what used to be the Big 8’s greatest rivalry, the Cornhuskers look to stop a losing streak that dates back to 2001. Both teams have a lot to play for even with three losses each, with Nebraska trying to win the Big 12 North and the Sooners still a factor in the South. Should be a great game under the lights in Lincoln.
Farther out West is another test awaiting Oregon. Who would have thought the Ducks would be sitting pretty as Rose Bowl favorites after the week 1 implosion in Boise. But here they are, undefeated and ranked 8th in the BCS with only Arizona within a game of their lead. But Stanford has been looking forward to this game since a last second loss in Eugene last year and has a week to prepare (or more precisely a week of nightmares watching the USC film) for this home game. The last time Oregon won the Pac 10 in 2001 the only loss Joey Harrington and company endured was to Stanford after an onside kick led to a Cardinal comeback. That loss cost the Ducks a chance at the National Title game that season. Could history repeat itself this week and Stanford ruin the Ducks’ season once again. Yours truly will be in Palo Alto to find out. I expect a great offensive game and hopefully Stanford makes it one for the ages.
Premium Lox
Oregon State (+7) @ California
While the Bears have played well since the Oregon-USC losses, they barely got by ASU last week while the Beavers beat UCLA. I think the Beavers are equally as good and this game could go either way. Jahvid Best and Jacquizz Rodgers will be fun to watch on offense and eventually the overall talent of the Beavers will be the difference. PICK: Oregon State 34 – Cal 31
West Virginia (-17.5) vs. Louisville
With the Mountaineers coming off their first loss of Big East play to South Florida I expect them to be hungry and focused. Louisville has lost big to the good teams on their schedule and don’t have much left to play for. Jarrett Brown will throw all over the field and Noel Devine will run free and West Virginia should win easily. PICK: 35 – 13
Northwestern (+15.5) @ Iowa
Yes the Hawkeyes find ways to win each and every week. But after last week’s six turnover debacle they won’t be throwing the ball all over the field and will look to play ball control offense as usual. Northwestern has a knack for playing close games and Iowa has not blown anyone out this year. I see a low scoring game with Iowa holding on for their tenth win but Northwestern staying close. PICK: Iowa 23 – Northwestern 14
Regular Lox
Penn State (-5) vs. Ohio State
Terrelle Pryor returns to his home state and the school he shunned to go to Columbus. Penn State QB Darryl Clark is playing tremendous football and could be the Big 10 Player of the Year. The Nittany Lions will try to beat Ohio State for the second year in a row and this time have the home field edge, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record. I expect a close, low-scoring game for 3 quarters and Penn State pulling away in the fourth quarter behind the dual threat Clark. The defense will ultimately be the difference though as Pryor and company will struggle putting drives together and will be limited in big plays. PICK: Penn State 23 – Ohio State 13
Navy (+13) @ Notre Dame
The Midshipmen travel to South bend off a tough loss to Temple. They beat the Irish two years ago and made a big comeback before falling last year. Navy gets its QB Ricky Dobbs back for this game and he will make a big difference in leading the spread offense. Notre Dame will put up a lot of points but will give them up as well. Navy is an amazing 8-0 ATS at Notre Dame Stadium including the upset two years ago. Notre Dame also has not covered a spread as a favorite since the opening week win over Nevada. I like those odds and will take Navy to cover and keep the streak of Irish thrilling games intact. PICK: Notre Dame 37 – Navy 31
Wisconsin (-11) @ Indiana
I’m going with the Badgers two weeks in a row as I think this team is on a mission to prove the losses to Ohio State and Iowa were on them. Indiana had its own chance at the upset at Iowa last week but fell apart in the final period and lost bad. It was a demoralizing loss for a young, rebuilding program and they might not be focused enough to stop the bruising attack the Badgers will bring into Bloomington. I expect a lot of rushing yards from Wisconsin with Indiana not able to keep up on either side of the ball. PICK: Wisconsin 35 – Indiana 13
Upset Special
Kansas State (+3) over Kansas
I like Kansas State at home over a Jayhawk team that is reeling. Kansas State leads the Big 12 North and has a chance to take a commanding advantage with an upset here and a Nebraska loss to Oklahoma. This game might not show up on the national radar but nothing is bigger in Kansas right now. A rivalry dominated by Kansas State over the years but recently by Mark Mangino and Kansas, we’ll see if Bill Snyder brings a win back to Manhattan, KS.
Week 9 in Review
Two teams made the biggest statements in week 9, Oregon beating up USC and Texas suffocating Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Below are my top 10 teams with the Trojans being knocked out and LSU entering the rankings before their showdown in Tuscaloosa.
1. Alabama – The Tide stays at the top for now, but with the Bayou Bengals in town for the SEC West game of the year they will have to prove their worth once again.
2. Florida –The Gators are making more noise off the field than on, with Urban Meyer being fined for criticizing the officials and the SuspensionGate with LB Brandon Spikes. What exactly was the tipping point for every scandal being given a cute nickname ending in “Gate”? Sorry to further the nonsense.
3. Texas – It took some time but the Longhorns have their groove back and look to be on their way to the Big 12 title. They will be at least TD favorites for every game left on the schedule and unless a team from the Big 12 North steps up the Longhorns might have the best road to the BCS Championship game in Pasadena.
4. Cincinnati – What else is new for Cincinnati as they continue to roll over the Big East with a backup QB. They still have to get by West Virginia and Pitt, and this week against UCONN is no easy task.
5. TCU – The Horned Frogs have the game at Utah circled as that seems to be their only bump on their way to their first BCS berth. Utah will be plenty hungry themselves as their only loss of the year was at Oregon, which looks pretty darn good right now.
6. Boise State – A PR firm is now the biggest backers of the Broncos’ BCS dreams. Not sure how they will help their strength of schedule and computer rankings though. It is a sad day in college football when this is making news.
7. Iowa – What can you say about Iowa after watching their comeback win over Indiana last week? They sure don’t look like an undefeated team marching toward a national title. But the eyes can deceive and the Hawkeyes keep winning so they stay above the one-loss teams. I can’t see this team staying undefeated though, so their best hope for a Rose Bowl berth is Penn State beating the Buckeyes this week and winning the tiebreaker over PSU.
8. Oregon –The Ducks made a huge statement to the nation and the Pac 10 on Halloween. It was an astounding sight to see USC so thoroughly beat up and almost quitting on the game. The Ducks though have tough games remaining at Stanford and Arizona and the Civil War against Oregon State. One loss is reasonable and still would give them a good chance at the Rose Bowl.
9. Georgia Tech –The Yellow Jackets have proven to be by far the best of the ACC. Their lone loss was to Miami on an early Thursday game on the road. Their Triple Option offense is piling up points on good defenses and the expectations are now ACC title and BCS berth.
10. LSU - The Tigers have a shot to upset Alabama and earn the chance at a rematch with Florida in the SEC title. It would not be surprising to see Les Miles back in a BCS game if they can stop Mark Ingram and the Tide offense and let Jordan Jefferson lead the way for his offense.
Saturday Lox Week 9 in Review
It was a tough week for my Lox as a good morning, 2-0 with covers by Wisconsin and Cincinnati, turned ugly in the afternoon with 5 losses, and even the big upset in Eugene that I picked couldn’t help the gloomy Saturday it was on Halloween.
Premium Lox
Week 9: 1-2
Overall: 13-17
Cincinnati (-15): 28-7. Winner. Cinci got lucky to cover with a botched field goal ending in a TD.
Miami (-7): 28-27. Loser. Miami never was over the spread in this comeback win over Wake Forest.
Tennessee vs. South Carolina (Under 42.5): 31-14. Loser. A late field goal doomed the pick.
Regular Lox:
Week 9: 1-3
Overall: 12-16-2
Wisconsin (-7): 37-0. Winner. This one was never in doubt as Purdue did not put up a fight.
Oklahoma State (+9.5): 14-41. Loser. The Longhorns destroyed the Cowboys in this big game in Stillwater.
Kentucky (-4): 24-31. Loser. Kentucky got shut out after leading by a TD at halftime in this loss to Mississippi State.
Central Michigan (+6.5): 6-31. Loser. Central Michigan couldn’t get anything going after leading 6-3 in the first quarter.
Upset Specials
Week 9: 1-1
Overall: 7-11
Oregon pulled the upset in the biggest Pac 10 game of the year to get the money line win, but Colorado was not as fortunate as the underdog versus Missouri, as they were thoroughly beaten from the start in a blowout.
Now onto next week and a new month with plenty of season-changing games ahead in college football.
1. Alabama – The Tide stays at the top for now, but with the Bayou Bengals in town for the SEC West game of the year they will have to prove their worth once again.
2. Florida –The Gators are making more noise off the field than on, with Urban Meyer being fined for criticizing the officials and the SuspensionGate with LB Brandon Spikes. What exactly was the tipping point for every scandal being given a cute nickname ending in “Gate”? Sorry to further the nonsense.
3. Texas – It took some time but the Longhorns have their groove back and look to be on their way to the Big 12 title. They will be at least TD favorites for every game left on the schedule and unless a team from the Big 12 North steps up the Longhorns might have the best road to the BCS Championship game in Pasadena.
4. Cincinnati – What else is new for Cincinnati as they continue to roll over the Big East with a backup QB. They still have to get by West Virginia and Pitt, and this week against UCONN is no easy task.
5. TCU – The Horned Frogs have the game at Utah circled as that seems to be their only bump on their way to their first BCS berth. Utah will be plenty hungry themselves as their only loss of the year was at Oregon, which looks pretty darn good right now.
6. Boise State – A PR firm is now the biggest backers of the Broncos’ BCS dreams. Not sure how they will help their strength of schedule and computer rankings though. It is a sad day in college football when this is making news.
7. Iowa – What can you say about Iowa after watching their comeback win over Indiana last week? They sure don’t look like an undefeated team marching toward a national title. But the eyes can deceive and the Hawkeyes keep winning so they stay above the one-loss teams. I can’t see this team staying undefeated though, so their best hope for a Rose Bowl berth is Penn State beating the Buckeyes this week and winning the tiebreaker over PSU.
8. Oregon –The Ducks made a huge statement to the nation and the Pac 10 on Halloween. It was an astounding sight to see USC so thoroughly beat up and almost quitting on the game. The Ducks though have tough games remaining at Stanford and Arizona and the Civil War against Oregon State. One loss is reasonable and still would give them a good chance at the Rose Bowl.
9. Georgia Tech –The Yellow Jackets have proven to be by far the best of the ACC. Their lone loss was to Miami on an early Thursday game on the road. Their Triple Option offense is piling up points on good defenses and the expectations are now ACC title and BCS berth.
10. LSU - The Tigers have a shot to upset Alabama and earn the chance at a rematch with Florida in the SEC title. It would not be surprising to see Les Miles back in a BCS game if they can stop Mark Ingram and the Tide offense and let Jordan Jefferson lead the way for his offense.
Saturday Lox Week 9 in Review
It was a tough week for my Lox as a good morning, 2-0 with covers by Wisconsin and Cincinnati, turned ugly in the afternoon with 5 losses, and even the big upset in Eugene that I picked couldn’t help the gloomy Saturday it was on Halloween.
Premium Lox
Week 9: 1-2
Overall: 13-17
Cincinnati (-15): 28-7. Winner. Cinci got lucky to cover with a botched field goal ending in a TD.
Miami (-7): 28-27. Loser. Miami never was over the spread in this comeback win over Wake Forest.
Tennessee vs. South Carolina (Under 42.5): 31-14. Loser. A late field goal doomed the pick.
Regular Lox:
Week 9: 1-3
Overall: 12-16-2
Wisconsin (-7): 37-0. Winner. This one was never in doubt as Purdue did not put up a fight.
Oklahoma State (+9.5): 14-41. Loser. The Longhorns destroyed the Cowboys in this big game in Stillwater.
Kentucky (-4): 24-31. Loser. Kentucky got shut out after leading by a TD at halftime in this loss to Mississippi State.
Central Michigan (+6.5): 6-31. Loser. Central Michigan couldn’t get anything going after leading 6-3 in the first quarter.
Upset Specials
Week 9: 1-1
Overall: 7-11
Oregon pulled the upset in the biggest Pac 10 game of the year to get the money line win, but Colorado was not as fortunate as the underdog versus Missouri, as they were thoroughly beaten from the start in a blowout.
Now onto next week and a new month with plenty of season-changing games ahead in college football.
