Saturday Lox Week 9
Premium Lox
Cincinnati (-15) @ Syracuse
Miami (-7) @ Wake Forest
South Carolina @ Tennessee (Under 42.5)
Regular Lox
Texas @ Oklahoma State (+9.5) – Game of the Week
Purdue @ Wisconsin (-7)
Mississippi State @ Kentucky (-4)
Central Michigan (+6.5) @ Boston College
Upset Specials
Oregon (+3.5) over USC – Game of the Week
Colorado (+3.5) over Missouri
Friday, October 30, 2009
Week 8 in Review
College Football Week 9
Week 8 In Review
1. Alabama – Even with the narrow win at home saved by a blocked field goal as time expired the Crimson Tide hold the top spot.
2. Florida – The Gators are not the unstoppable force they were last season but they continue to win and hold the number 2 spot.
3. Cincinnati – The Bearcats continue to roll even with a backup QB. Tough games loom against West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
4. Iowa – QB Ricky Stanzi led a last second TD drive to keep the dream season alive for the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz may have his best chance to bring a national title to Iowa if he can beat Ohio State in Columbus and avoid an upset along the way.
5. Texas – Finally Colt McCoy and the offense showed up in a big way on the road in Missouri. With a win this week at Stillwater, OK the Longhorns will jump up the rankings.
6. TCU – The Horned Frogs were impressive in a blowout win at BYU and now move ahead of Boise State in the quest to make a BCS Bowl.
7. Boise State – The Broncos get dropped through no fault of their own, but such is life in the WAC, which does not impress on a week to week basis. They still have a chance to improve the strength of schedule with games against Nevada and who would have thought Idaho.
8. USC – The Trojans beat Oregon State but gave up 36 points in the process and are clearly not the complete team we are used to seeing. Still talented enough if they put it together to make the National Title game, we will know more after the trip to Eugene this week.
9. Oregon – The Ducks continue to win in all facets of the game. Their defense and special teams carried the team last week until the offense took over in the second half of their blowout win in Seattle.
10. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets keep rolling and were helped greatly with losses by Miami and Virginia Tech last week. They now control their destiny in the ACC.
Saturday Lox Week 8 in Review
Premium Lox
Week 8: 1-2
Overall: 12-15
Winners
Oregon State (+21): 36-42
Oregon State gave USC all they could handle last week. USC led by as many as 19 but never got over the spread and a big fourth quarter by the Beavers made this easy money.
Losers
Auburn (+7.5): 10-31
LSU jumped on Auburn early and made a statement to the rest of the SEC. Auburn is having a tough time after raising expectations with a good non-conference start.
SMU (+16): 15-38
June Jones’ SMU team actually played with Houston despite the final score but 3 turnovers ultimately was the Mustangs downfall. The yardage and first downs were nearly equal.
Regular Lox
Week 8: 2-1
Overall: 11-13-2
Winners:
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Under 42): 14-10
Every SEC game actually went under the total last week as this bet was never in doubt. Both teams dominated with defense and the only surprise was South Carolina having to hang on to get the home win.
Oklahoma State (-9.5): 34-7
The Cowboys got the easy win against an overmatched Baylor team to set up the big game against Texas this week. This game was never in doubt as Oklahoma State continued to play great since the lone loss to Houston.
Loser:
Missouri (+13): 7-41
Texas dominated Missouri in this game as the Longhorns played a complete game for the first time all year. Missouri is now 0-4 in the Big 12.
Upset Special
Week 8: 1-0
Overall: 6-10
Navy (+2): 13-10
The Midshipmen beat Wake Forest without throwing a pass. That’s right zero passes attempted and 338 yards rushing on 64 carries. Navy knows how to win close games and this victory solidified another great season in Annapolis with their sixth win and bowl eligibility.
Week 8 In Review
1. Alabama – Even with the narrow win at home saved by a blocked field goal as time expired the Crimson Tide hold the top spot.
2. Florida – The Gators are not the unstoppable force they were last season but they continue to win and hold the number 2 spot.
3. Cincinnati – The Bearcats continue to roll even with a backup QB. Tough games loom against West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
4. Iowa – QB Ricky Stanzi led a last second TD drive to keep the dream season alive for the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz may have his best chance to bring a national title to Iowa if he can beat Ohio State in Columbus and avoid an upset along the way.
5. Texas – Finally Colt McCoy and the offense showed up in a big way on the road in Missouri. With a win this week at Stillwater, OK the Longhorns will jump up the rankings.
6. TCU – The Horned Frogs were impressive in a blowout win at BYU and now move ahead of Boise State in the quest to make a BCS Bowl.
7. Boise State – The Broncos get dropped through no fault of their own, but such is life in the WAC, which does not impress on a week to week basis. They still have a chance to improve the strength of schedule with games against Nevada and who would have thought Idaho.
8. USC – The Trojans beat Oregon State but gave up 36 points in the process and are clearly not the complete team we are used to seeing. Still talented enough if they put it together to make the National Title game, we will know more after the trip to Eugene this week.
9. Oregon – The Ducks continue to win in all facets of the game. Their defense and special teams carried the team last week until the offense took over in the second half of their blowout win in Seattle.
10. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets keep rolling and were helped greatly with losses by Miami and Virginia Tech last week. They now control their destiny in the ACC.
Saturday Lox Week 8 in Review
Premium Lox
Week 8: 1-2
Overall: 12-15
Winners
Oregon State (+21): 36-42
Oregon State gave USC all they could handle last week. USC led by as many as 19 but never got over the spread and a big fourth quarter by the Beavers made this easy money.
Losers
Auburn (+7.5): 10-31
LSU jumped on Auburn early and made a statement to the rest of the SEC. Auburn is having a tough time after raising expectations with a good non-conference start.
SMU (+16): 15-38
June Jones’ SMU team actually played with Houston despite the final score but 3 turnovers ultimately was the Mustangs downfall. The yardage and first downs were nearly equal.
Regular Lox
Week 8: 2-1
Overall: 11-13-2
Winners:
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Under 42): 14-10
Every SEC game actually went under the total last week as this bet was never in doubt. Both teams dominated with defense and the only surprise was South Carolina having to hang on to get the home win.
Oklahoma State (-9.5): 34-7
The Cowboys got the easy win against an overmatched Baylor team to set up the big game against Texas this week. This game was never in doubt as Oklahoma State continued to play great since the lone loss to Houston.
Loser:
Missouri (+13): 7-41
Texas dominated Missouri in this game as the Longhorns played a complete game for the first time all year. Missouri is now 0-4 in the Big 12.
Upset Special
Week 8: 1-0
Overall: 6-10
Navy (+2): 13-10
The Midshipmen beat Wake Forest without throwing a pass. That’s right zero passes attempted and 338 yards rushing on 64 carries. Navy knows how to win close games and this victory solidified another great season in Annapolis with their sixth win and bowl eligibility.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Week 8
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
Oregon State (+21) @ USC
Even with the revenge factor from last year’s upset in Corvallis I don’t think USC can cover 3 touchdowns against a talented OSU team that has been playing good football of late. The Trojans should get the home win to set up a huge Halloween trip to Eugene (assuming the Ducks hold up their end) but I’ll take the points and hope the Beavers get great performances from Jacquizz and James Rodgers. Oregon State is an amazing 8-0 against the spread in October over the last two years. Go Beavers. PICK: USC 31 – Oregon State 20
Auburn (+7.5) @ LSU
This is LSU’s first game since their streak of home wins at night was shattered by Florida two weeks ago. This one is also under the lights and Auburn is off two conference losses to Arkansas and Kentucky. The intangibles favor LSU in this game but I think Auburn comes to play and gets the offense going again after a shaky performance last week. They may not have enough to pull the upset in Baton Rouge but the Bayou Bengals have not blown any team out yet including Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Look for a close game with Auburn a real chance at the upset if they run well and take care of the football. PICK: LSU 24 – Auburn 23
SMU (+17) @ Houston
SMU is coming off a tough OT loss to Navy while Houston has bounced back for two straight wins after their BCS hopes were dashed by UTEP. I like SMU to make this a close game as Houston’s defense is almost as bad as their offense is good. Case Keenum is quietly mounting a Heisman campaign behind center for Houston and will continue to play well in this one, but I fully expect SMU to score enough points to keep this within two touchdowns. June Jones is transforming what was a languishing program and his teams always play well in marquee games. This is the biggest foe the Mustangs will face. Don’t take a bathroom break for this game as there will be a lot of points and a lot of yardage. PICK: Houston 45 – SMU 34
Regular Lox
Texas @ Missouri (+13)
I have not been high on Texas at all this season and here is where I put my money where my mouth is. Missouri has lost two in a row in the Big 12 in disappointing fashion, first the 4th quarter meltdown to Nebraska and last week to Oklahoma State. This will be a big test to see if Gary Pinkel has his team rebuilding or reloading. Texas will face a strong opponent on the road for the first time and will need to correct their problems on offense in a tough environment. The good news for Missouri is they outgained the Cowboys last week and without the turnovers over the last two weeks could be undefeated. Texas has at least two turnovers in every game but Wyoming. This game may come down to which defense forces the mistakes and which offense takes advantage. I think Missouri has the athletes to match up with the Longhorns and unless Colt McCoy reverts to last year’s form I see this game being played in single digits one way or the other. PICK: Texas 23 – Missouri 17
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Under 42)
South Carolina was upset by the Commodores last year on the road and will be out for revenge in this game. Steve Spurrier’s defense has been the most consistent unit all year and should have a chance at their best game against a weak offense. I expect the Gamecocks to jump on Vanderbilt early and coast to a low scoring victory. There is usually an easy under in the SEC each week and this could be the matchup. It is a low total but I don’t expect Vanderbilt to get to double digits in Columbia, in fact Vanderbilt has hit the under in their last 11 games played in October. PICK: South Carolina 27 – Vanderbilt 6
Oklahoma State (-9.5) @ Baylor
The Cowboys will play their third game without All-American WR Dez Bryant because of eligibility issues and it is uncertain if RB Kendal Hunter will come back from his ankle injury. Still the Cowboys have won every game without their two stars thanks to QB Zac Robinson and some talented replacements. Baylor’s high hopes were brought back to reality after the crushing injury to QB Robert Griffin, possibly the top QB in the Big 12 in the future. But without him Baylor has struggled and will have more trouble with a motivated team coming into Waco this week. The injuries will keep the Cowboys focused this week despite the big game on deck vs. Texas. The Cowboys are 10-3 against the spread vs. Baylor since 1992 and 5-2 in Waco. PICK: Oklahoma State 34 – Baylor 17
Upset Special
Navy (+2) vs. Wake Forest
These two teams met in the EagleBank Bowl (what ever happened to a normal bowl name) last year when Wake Forest won and covered but also matched up in the regular season when Navy got the win as double digit underdogs. I expect the Midshipmen will find a way to win behind a strong running game that has bothered Wake Forest all year. Navy will be happy to be home after two straight weeks in Texas while Wake has been awful on the road in losses to Boston College and Clemson. PICK: Navy 24 – Wake Forest 20
Premium Lox
Oregon State (+21) @ USC
Even with the revenge factor from last year’s upset in Corvallis I don’t think USC can cover 3 touchdowns against a talented OSU team that has been playing good football of late. The Trojans should get the home win to set up a huge Halloween trip to Eugene (assuming the Ducks hold up their end) but I’ll take the points and hope the Beavers get great performances from Jacquizz and James Rodgers. Oregon State is an amazing 8-0 against the spread in October over the last two years. Go Beavers. PICK: USC 31 – Oregon State 20
Auburn (+7.5) @ LSU
This is LSU’s first game since their streak of home wins at night was shattered by Florida two weeks ago. This one is also under the lights and Auburn is off two conference losses to Arkansas and Kentucky. The intangibles favor LSU in this game but I think Auburn comes to play and gets the offense going again after a shaky performance last week. They may not have enough to pull the upset in Baton Rouge but the Bayou Bengals have not blown any team out yet including Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Look for a close game with Auburn a real chance at the upset if they run well and take care of the football. PICK: LSU 24 – Auburn 23
SMU (+17) @ Houston
SMU is coming off a tough OT loss to Navy while Houston has bounced back for two straight wins after their BCS hopes were dashed by UTEP. I like SMU to make this a close game as Houston’s defense is almost as bad as their offense is good. Case Keenum is quietly mounting a Heisman campaign behind center for Houston and will continue to play well in this one, but I fully expect SMU to score enough points to keep this within two touchdowns. June Jones is transforming what was a languishing program and his teams always play well in marquee games. This is the biggest foe the Mustangs will face. Don’t take a bathroom break for this game as there will be a lot of points and a lot of yardage. PICK: Houston 45 – SMU 34
Regular Lox
Texas @ Missouri (+13)
I have not been high on Texas at all this season and here is where I put my money where my mouth is. Missouri has lost two in a row in the Big 12 in disappointing fashion, first the 4th quarter meltdown to Nebraska and last week to Oklahoma State. This will be a big test to see if Gary Pinkel has his team rebuilding or reloading. Texas will face a strong opponent on the road for the first time and will need to correct their problems on offense in a tough environment. The good news for Missouri is they outgained the Cowboys last week and without the turnovers over the last two weeks could be undefeated. Texas has at least two turnovers in every game but Wyoming. This game may come down to which defense forces the mistakes and which offense takes advantage. I think Missouri has the athletes to match up with the Longhorns and unless Colt McCoy reverts to last year’s form I see this game being played in single digits one way or the other. PICK: Texas 23 – Missouri 17
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Under 42)
South Carolina was upset by the Commodores last year on the road and will be out for revenge in this game. Steve Spurrier’s defense has been the most consistent unit all year and should have a chance at their best game against a weak offense. I expect the Gamecocks to jump on Vanderbilt early and coast to a low scoring victory. There is usually an easy under in the SEC each week and this could be the matchup. It is a low total but I don’t expect Vanderbilt to get to double digits in Columbia, in fact Vanderbilt has hit the under in their last 11 games played in October. PICK: South Carolina 27 – Vanderbilt 6
Oklahoma State (-9.5) @ Baylor
The Cowboys will play their third game without All-American WR Dez Bryant because of eligibility issues and it is uncertain if RB Kendal Hunter will come back from his ankle injury. Still the Cowboys have won every game without their two stars thanks to QB Zac Robinson and some talented replacements. Baylor’s high hopes were brought back to reality after the crushing injury to QB Robert Griffin, possibly the top QB in the Big 12 in the future. But without him Baylor has struggled and will have more trouble with a motivated team coming into Waco this week. The injuries will keep the Cowboys focused this week despite the big game on deck vs. Texas. The Cowboys are 10-3 against the spread vs. Baylor since 1992 and 5-2 in Waco. PICK: Oklahoma State 34 – Baylor 17
Upset Special
Navy (+2) vs. Wake Forest
These two teams met in the EagleBank Bowl (what ever happened to a normal bowl name) last year when Wake Forest won and covered but also matched up in the regular season when Navy got the win as double digit underdogs. I expect the Midshipmen will find a way to win behind a strong running game that has bothered Wake Forest all year. Navy will be happy to be home after two straight weeks in Texas while Wake has been awful on the road in losses to Boston College and Clemson. PICK: Navy 24 – Wake Forest 20
Week 7 in Review
Week 7 of college football brought another exciting Notre Dame finish as the Irish stormed back in the fourth quarter but was stopped on three plays inside the 5 yard line in an attempt to tie the Trojans. I was rooting for a Touchdown at that point because it would have been great to see if Charlie Weis went for 2 and the win right there or sent it to OT. As it is another loss to the rival Trojans, another nail biter for Irish fans and still Notre Dame is without a signature win in a long time. The good news is with Boston College heading to South Bend this weekend, maybe this game could count as that win as the Irish have lost 6 straight to BC, including 3 straight at ND Stadium.
Last Saturday we also witnessed a near upset of Florida in the Swamp. This time it was Arkansas as 20+ point underdogs almost pulling off the win. A personal foul call helped Florida score the tying TD in the fourth quarter and has led to the SEC officiating crew being indefinitely suspended as the league and Arkansas’ fans are still looking for the penalty. Two big games in the conference have now been damaged by this crew throwing 15 yard penalties when they shouldn’t have, the first being against Georgia in their close loss to LSU. So for the rest of the year when we hear the non-stop bellowing from ESPN, CBS and the like about how much better the SEC is than the rest of the world, just remember at least the rest of us have the better referees. That is something to hang your hat on, right? OK maybe not, but still.
The Game of the Week in Dallas for the Red River Rivalry could not quite live up to the hype or the game from last year. Texas pulled off the 16-13 win, but neither team played well, Sam Bradford actually outplaying Colt McCoy in my opinion even though Bradford was injured on his second drive of the game. Mistakes were made in abundance and it became clear very quickly that neither team is as good as last year’s versions. After this performance it is amazing that Colt McCoy is even mentioned in the same sentence for a certain year end award, as he has been atrocious in the Longhorns’ big games, practically giving Oklahoma more chances than they ever deserved with two interceptions and many more costly mistakes. Texas may be #3 in the BCS and all the polls but the way they have played this year is not inspiring if you are hoping for a trip to Pasadena for the National Championship game. They will lose this year and my guess is soon.
Ohio State fans don’t have to hold their breath any longer about making plans for a West Coast trip on New Year’s Day as the Buckeyes were severely outclassed by Purdue, which came in having lost 5 straight, including games against Northern Illinois, Northwestern and Minnesota. Ohio State is just an average football team this year at best, with Terrelle Pryor not having improved at all since he walked onto campus over a year ago. He turns the ball over like it was basketball, fumbling away a rebound, he doesn’t seem to be the athletic wonder that he showed flashes of being last year and his arm and accuracy throwing the ball is atrocious. Although I didn’t pick this game last week I did make mention that Ohio State would lose several more games and this was just the start of it. I feel vindicated having left the Buckeyes out of my initial top 10 last week. Speaking of the top 10 rankings the BCS standings came out with, no surprise here, Florida and Alabama covering the top spots. Let’s take a quick look at the Saturday Lox Top 10 for this week before we review another heart wrenching week of picks that is leading this author to high blood pressure and balding hair.
1. (1 – last week) Alabama – The Crimson Tide did nothing to drop them from here with a hard fought 20-6 win over South Carolina. Mark Ingram got noticed for the Heisman with a 246-yard rushing performance, including all 8 carries on the TD drive that clinched the game in the final quarter.
2. (2)Florida – Even with the near upset by Arkansas, the Gators hold this spot. They made too many errors in the red zone, their defense didn’t bail them out as they have in the past, but the Gators are still a hungry and confident team. Being tested like this can only help as they move forward in SEC play. I expect the South Carolina game in Columbia, SC to be their ultimate test.
3. (3)Cincinnati – The Bearcats beat an undefeated South Florida team last Thursday and are now feeling great in the Big East. Tony Pike, their starting QB is questionable after breaking his non-throwing arm in the game, but the backup played exceptional, including a 75 yard TD run off a QB draw. Brian Kelly, two-time Big East Coach of the Year, may be the best in the country with what he has done with this program and even with injuries this team could run the table.
4. (7)Iowa – The Hawkeyes were underdogs on the road at Wisconsin but came back from a 10-0 deficit to win 20-10 and secure its hold at the top of the Big 10. They move up to this spot with that win and the ugly showings by the teams in front of them. They should handle business at home the rest of the way (Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota) but the road games are tough, with Michigan State in East Lansing this week and Ohio State in Columbus in November. Iowa though has a legit shot at going undefeated.
5. (4)Boise State – The Broncos continue to handle their business and they say they are taking it one game at a time, but they know they must blow everyone out on their schedule if they are to stay in this spot. The biggest game for them this weekend is not their game at Hawaii though, it is TCU vs. BYU. A loss by TCU and they would be the only non-BCS team left undefeated.
6. (5)Texas – Yes they beat Oklahoma, but no it was not pretty or impressive. And the difference between this team winning ugly and Iowa, for instance, is that the Longhorns aren’t trying to play like that. What was a dynamic and unstoppable offense last year has turned into a slow and mistake filled unit that has been bailed out in each challenging game by its defense and special teams.
7. (6)USC – The Trojans drop a few spots because they almost blew a big lead in South Bend. Barkley continues to impress and the offense seems to be getting it together, but the defense collapsed against Clausen and Golden Tate (maybe the best QB-WR combo in the nation) and by just holding on in this game, they drop in my rankings. A tough two weeks awaits against the Oregon schools, including the trip to Eugene on Halloween.
8. (9)Miami – The Hurricanes got the help they needed with Georgia Tech’s win over Virginia Tech and now all three are tied in the ACC Coastal, which is head and shoulders above the ACC Atlantic division. The Hurricanes have been the most impressive in my opinion with wins over Oklahoma, FSU (before anyone knew they were that bad) and GT.
9. (10)TCU – This team can leapfrog (no pun intended, or maybe a little) the teams in front with a big road win over BYU this Saturday. But with a loss their BCS hopes would die very quickly. Maybe the best game of the week and it is between non-BCS schools. I think Orrin Hatch, the Republican Senator from Utah who has been trying to get Congress to stop the BCS, needs to root against his home-state BYU Cougars this week to strengthen his argument. My guess, no matter what the outcome he will continue running his mouth about college football while millions of Americans are out of work, living in poverty and Wall Street execs are making more money than Alex Rodriguez and Kate Hudson combined. Get your priorities straight Senator, sir.
10. Georgia Tech / Oregon– The Yellow Jackets and the Ducks tie for this spot. GT has beaten Clemson, UNC, Miss. State, FSU, and VT while the Ducks have wins over Utah, Purdue, Cal, Wash. St., and UCLA. They both lost to top 10 teams, Miami and Boise State. The difference is GT has one more road win and the win over VT last week. The Ducks are hurt because Cal has dropped from the rankings and what should have been a statement win does not look as good now. But Oregon could easily vault into the top 5 by the first of November with an upset of USC.
Saturday Lox Week 7 in Review
Premium Lox
Week 7: 1-2
Overall: 11-13
Winners:
Iowa @ Wisconsin (Under 47): 20-10 Iowa
I felt this game would be a running, grind it out defensive battle and that is exactly what happened. Wisconsin jumped out to a 10-0 lead but Iowa stormed back on the road to win 20-10 and keep its perfect season alive.
Losers:
USC (-10): 34-27
The Trojans led 34-13 in this game and looked to be cruising to victory in South Bend, but Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate connected on a key TD pass and after an interception by USC, Notre Dame got within the spread with another TD. So what could have been a blowout and easy money turned into a close game that the Irish almost pulled out.
Washington (+6.5): 17-24
Of all the heart wrenching defeats this year Washington has provided the worst two. Last week it was the interception off the receiver’s foot that led to UW covering a game I bet against them. This time UW had the ball tied with under a minute left but instead of taking a knee deep in their territory passed on 3rd down and was forced to punt. Arizona State took over at midfield with 13 seconds left and promptly threw a 50 yard TD pass with 5 seconds left. Two receivers had actually got behind the defense on a play that I might have fired my defensive coordinator right there on the spot. But if Sarkisian didn’t punt the ball it never would have happened. Either way the Huskies players can’t feel good about how this happened but the coaches have to be sick because it is all on them. As it is fans everywhere can’t believe how this game ended and neither can I.
Regular Lox
Week 7: 1-1-1
Overall: 9-12-2
Winners:
Texas Tech @ Nebraska (Under 60): 31-10
Although Texas Tech was the dominating team here the game went how I thought it would as far as scoring. Nebraska’s defense did not play as bad as the score would indicate, as only 14 points can be attributed to that unit. The game turned in the first quarter when Nebraska was driving and threw a lateral WR screen pass that was dropped. None of the Nebraska players realized it was a fumble until Tech had returned it for a TD and a 14-0 lead. The crowd never was a factor again and Texas Tech rolled to the win. But as I thought the offense for Tech didn’t do much and the Cornhuskers offense was even worse. After watching a play like that I wonder how an offensive coach could even think about running a play like that in his red zone and even worse how not 1 of 11 players would even think it was a fumble. That is a simple but big difference between pro and college football.
Texas (-3): 16-13 PUSH
This was a frustrating game for anyone who had money on it. If you bet on Oklahoma you can’t believe they turned the ball over seemingly every possession, missed easy field goals and altogether played well below their capability. If you had Texas they also turned the ball over in key moments, including a fumble into the endzone that would have been a back breaker and Colt McCoy’s interception inside the 5 yard line when a field goal would have covered the spread. It may sound like I am piling on McCoy but he has been simply a bad quarterback for most of the season, as a 11-7 TD/INT ratio shows. The Longhorns won this game in spite of McCoy but they won’t be able to continue this trend for long.
Losers:
UCLA (+4): 26-45
Cal bounced back nicely on offense after two horrid performances but this game was closer than the final would indicate. The first downs were even and Cal outgained the Bruins by just 41 yards. The key play came in the 4th quarter as UCLA trailed by 12 and were driving at the Cal 32. The next pass was intercepted and returned for a TD for the final margin. A TD on that drive could have made this game close and given UCLA’s defense a chance to stop Cal which it had all second half. As it is Rick Neuheisel’s sophomore season is going up in smoke as the Bruins are now 0-4 in the Pac 10.
Upset Specials
Week 7: 0-1
Overall: 5-10
Stanford (+4): 38-43
Jim Harbaugh’s team blew another big lead in this game as they were dominating on offense for three quarters but couldn’t run the clock out or stop Arizona in the final period. Leading 28-13 and later 38-29 the Cardinal defense evaporated while the offense dropped a fourth down pass that would have nearly clinched the win. But after giving the Wildcats the ball back, Nic Grigsby of UA ran for a long TD run on 3rd and 17 in Stanford territory. A humbling loss for a Stanford team seemingly on the verge of greatness yet not able to climb the final hurdle.
The frustrating part for any gambler is the what-ifs and this week was the hardest ever to watch. All games were winners at some point except the UCLA game. Watching Texas blow so many chances to score and cover and then USC watching its lead evaporate and finally Washington and Stanford losing games they were winning was the icing on the cake of a bitter day. The saying goes there is always next week and I will search every corner of college football for not only the winners but games that don’t make me call my doctor for Rogaine.
Last Saturday we also witnessed a near upset of Florida in the Swamp. This time it was Arkansas as 20+ point underdogs almost pulling off the win. A personal foul call helped Florida score the tying TD in the fourth quarter and has led to the SEC officiating crew being indefinitely suspended as the league and Arkansas’ fans are still looking for the penalty. Two big games in the conference have now been damaged by this crew throwing 15 yard penalties when they shouldn’t have, the first being against Georgia in their close loss to LSU. So for the rest of the year when we hear the non-stop bellowing from ESPN, CBS and the like about how much better the SEC is than the rest of the world, just remember at least the rest of us have the better referees. That is something to hang your hat on, right? OK maybe not, but still.
The Game of the Week in Dallas for the Red River Rivalry could not quite live up to the hype or the game from last year. Texas pulled off the 16-13 win, but neither team played well, Sam Bradford actually outplaying Colt McCoy in my opinion even though Bradford was injured on his second drive of the game. Mistakes were made in abundance and it became clear very quickly that neither team is as good as last year’s versions. After this performance it is amazing that Colt McCoy is even mentioned in the same sentence for a certain year end award, as he has been atrocious in the Longhorns’ big games, practically giving Oklahoma more chances than they ever deserved with two interceptions and many more costly mistakes. Texas may be #3 in the BCS and all the polls but the way they have played this year is not inspiring if you are hoping for a trip to Pasadena for the National Championship game. They will lose this year and my guess is soon.
Ohio State fans don’t have to hold their breath any longer about making plans for a West Coast trip on New Year’s Day as the Buckeyes were severely outclassed by Purdue, which came in having lost 5 straight, including games against Northern Illinois, Northwestern and Minnesota. Ohio State is just an average football team this year at best, with Terrelle Pryor not having improved at all since he walked onto campus over a year ago. He turns the ball over like it was basketball, fumbling away a rebound, he doesn’t seem to be the athletic wonder that he showed flashes of being last year and his arm and accuracy throwing the ball is atrocious. Although I didn’t pick this game last week I did make mention that Ohio State would lose several more games and this was just the start of it. I feel vindicated having left the Buckeyes out of my initial top 10 last week. Speaking of the top 10 rankings the BCS standings came out with, no surprise here, Florida and Alabama covering the top spots. Let’s take a quick look at the Saturday Lox Top 10 for this week before we review another heart wrenching week of picks that is leading this author to high blood pressure and balding hair.
1. (1 – last week) Alabama – The Crimson Tide did nothing to drop them from here with a hard fought 20-6 win over South Carolina. Mark Ingram got noticed for the Heisman with a 246-yard rushing performance, including all 8 carries on the TD drive that clinched the game in the final quarter.
2. (2)Florida – Even with the near upset by Arkansas, the Gators hold this spot. They made too many errors in the red zone, their defense didn’t bail them out as they have in the past, but the Gators are still a hungry and confident team. Being tested like this can only help as they move forward in SEC play. I expect the South Carolina game in Columbia, SC to be their ultimate test.
3. (3)Cincinnati – The Bearcats beat an undefeated South Florida team last Thursday and are now feeling great in the Big East. Tony Pike, their starting QB is questionable after breaking his non-throwing arm in the game, but the backup played exceptional, including a 75 yard TD run off a QB draw. Brian Kelly, two-time Big East Coach of the Year, may be the best in the country with what he has done with this program and even with injuries this team could run the table.
4. (7)Iowa – The Hawkeyes were underdogs on the road at Wisconsin but came back from a 10-0 deficit to win 20-10 and secure its hold at the top of the Big 10. They move up to this spot with that win and the ugly showings by the teams in front of them. They should handle business at home the rest of the way (Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota) but the road games are tough, with Michigan State in East Lansing this week and Ohio State in Columbus in November. Iowa though has a legit shot at going undefeated.
5. (4)Boise State – The Broncos continue to handle their business and they say they are taking it one game at a time, but they know they must blow everyone out on their schedule if they are to stay in this spot. The biggest game for them this weekend is not their game at Hawaii though, it is TCU vs. BYU. A loss by TCU and they would be the only non-BCS team left undefeated.
6. (5)Texas – Yes they beat Oklahoma, but no it was not pretty or impressive. And the difference between this team winning ugly and Iowa, for instance, is that the Longhorns aren’t trying to play like that. What was a dynamic and unstoppable offense last year has turned into a slow and mistake filled unit that has been bailed out in each challenging game by its defense and special teams.
7. (6)USC – The Trojans drop a few spots because they almost blew a big lead in South Bend. Barkley continues to impress and the offense seems to be getting it together, but the defense collapsed against Clausen and Golden Tate (maybe the best QB-WR combo in the nation) and by just holding on in this game, they drop in my rankings. A tough two weeks awaits against the Oregon schools, including the trip to Eugene on Halloween.
8. (9)Miami – The Hurricanes got the help they needed with Georgia Tech’s win over Virginia Tech and now all three are tied in the ACC Coastal, which is head and shoulders above the ACC Atlantic division. The Hurricanes have been the most impressive in my opinion with wins over Oklahoma, FSU (before anyone knew they were that bad) and GT.
9. (10)TCU – This team can leapfrog (no pun intended, or maybe a little) the teams in front with a big road win over BYU this Saturday. But with a loss their BCS hopes would die very quickly. Maybe the best game of the week and it is between non-BCS schools. I think Orrin Hatch, the Republican Senator from Utah who has been trying to get Congress to stop the BCS, needs to root against his home-state BYU Cougars this week to strengthen his argument. My guess, no matter what the outcome he will continue running his mouth about college football while millions of Americans are out of work, living in poverty and Wall Street execs are making more money than Alex Rodriguez and Kate Hudson combined. Get your priorities straight Senator, sir.
10. Georgia Tech / Oregon– The Yellow Jackets and the Ducks tie for this spot. GT has beaten Clemson, UNC, Miss. State, FSU, and VT while the Ducks have wins over Utah, Purdue, Cal, Wash. St., and UCLA. They both lost to top 10 teams, Miami and Boise State. The difference is GT has one more road win and the win over VT last week. The Ducks are hurt because Cal has dropped from the rankings and what should have been a statement win does not look as good now. But Oregon could easily vault into the top 5 by the first of November with an upset of USC.
Saturday Lox Week 7 in Review
Premium Lox
Week 7: 1-2
Overall: 11-13
Winners:
Iowa @ Wisconsin (Under 47): 20-10 Iowa
I felt this game would be a running, grind it out defensive battle and that is exactly what happened. Wisconsin jumped out to a 10-0 lead but Iowa stormed back on the road to win 20-10 and keep its perfect season alive.
Losers:
USC (-10): 34-27
The Trojans led 34-13 in this game and looked to be cruising to victory in South Bend, but Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate connected on a key TD pass and after an interception by USC, Notre Dame got within the spread with another TD. So what could have been a blowout and easy money turned into a close game that the Irish almost pulled out.
Washington (+6.5): 17-24
Of all the heart wrenching defeats this year Washington has provided the worst two. Last week it was the interception off the receiver’s foot that led to UW covering a game I bet against them. This time UW had the ball tied with under a minute left but instead of taking a knee deep in their territory passed on 3rd down and was forced to punt. Arizona State took over at midfield with 13 seconds left and promptly threw a 50 yard TD pass with 5 seconds left. Two receivers had actually got behind the defense on a play that I might have fired my defensive coordinator right there on the spot. But if Sarkisian didn’t punt the ball it never would have happened. Either way the Huskies players can’t feel good about how this happened but the coaches have to be sick because it is all on them. As it is fans everywhere can’t believe how this game ended and neither can I.
Regular Lox
Week 7: 1-1-1
Overall: 9-12-2
Winners:
Texas Tech @ Nebraska (Under 60): 31-10
Although Texas Tech was the dominating team here the game went how I thought it would as far as scoring. Nebraska’s defense did not play as bad as the score would indicate, as only 14 points can be attributed to that unit. The game turned in the first quarter when Nebraska was driving and threw a lateral WR screen pass that was dropped. None of the Nebraska players realized it was a fumble until Tech had returned it for a TD and a 14-0 lead. The crowd never was a factor again and Texas Tech rolled to the win. But as I thought the offense for Tech didn’t do much and the Cornhuskers offense was even worse. After watching a play like that I wonder how an offensive coach could even think about running a play like that in his red zone and even worse how not 1 of 11 players would even think it was a fumble. That is a simple but big difference between pro and college football.
Texas (-3): 16-13 PUSH
This was a frustrating game for anyone who had money on it. If you bet on Oklahoma you can’t believe they turned the ball over seemingly every possession, missed easy field goals and altogether played well below their capability. If you had Texas they also turned the ball over in key moments, including a fumble into the endzone that would have been a back breaker and Colt McCoy’s interception inside the 5 yard line when a field goal would have covered the spread. It may sound like I am piling on McCoy but he has been simply a bad quarterback for most of the season, as a 11-7 TD/INT ratio shows. The Longhorns won this game in spite of McCoy but they won’t be able to continue this trend for long.
Losers:
UCLA (+4): 26-45
Cal bounced back nicely on offense after two horrid performances but this game was closer than the final would indicate. The first downs were even and Cal outgained the Bruins by just 41 yards. The key play came in the 4th quarter as UCLA trailed by 12 and were driving at the Cal 32. The next pass was intercepted and returned for a TD for the final margin. A TD on that drive could have made this game close and given UCLA’s defense a chance to stop Cal which it had all second half. As it is Rick Neuheisel’s sophomore season is going up in smoke as the Bruins are now 0-4 in the Pac 10.
Upset Specials
Week 7: 0-1
Overall: 5-10
Stanford (+4): 38-43
Jim Harbaugh’s team blew another big lead in this game as they were dominating on offense for three quarters but couldn’t run the clock out or stop Arizona in the final period. Leading 28-13 and later 38-29 the Cardinal defense evaporated while the offense dropped a fourth down pass that would have nearly clinched the win. But after giving the Wildcats the ball back, Nic Grigsby of UA ran for a long TD run on 3rd and 17 in Stanford territory. A humbling loss for a Stanford team seemingly on the verge of greatness yet not able to climb the final hurdle.
The frustrating part for any gambler is the what-ifs and this week was the hardest ever to watch. All games were winners at some point except the UCLA game. Watching Texas blow so many chances to score and cover and then USC watching its lead evaporate and finally Washington and Stanford losing games they were winning was the icing on the cake of a bitter day. The saying goes there is always next week and I will search every corner of college football for not only the winners but games that don’t make me call my doctor for Rogaine.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Week 7 College Football
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
USC (-10) @ Notre Dame
The Trojans have dominated this series with Pete Carroll and I expect this game to be no different. There are a lot of people expecting Jimmy Clausen and company to make a statement in this game but I think it will be the opposite sideline celebrating early and often. USC is motivated by the recovery of Stafon Johnson and you can bet they will play a great game. Notre Dame is hurting without WR Michael Floyd and I expect them to have trouble on offense as they have the last two years in this matchup. Jimmy Clausen will make enough plays to put points on the board but USC will wear down the Irish on both sides of the ball and cover the 10 points. PICK: USC 31 – Notre Dame 17
Washington (+6.5) @ Arizona State
The Huskies seem to be a team of destiny this year with improbable wins over USC and Arizona last week. The Sun Devils have not showed much this year and with the Huskies the underdog by a TD I will take that any day. The Huskies showed they can compete on the road as they took Notre Dame to OT two weeks ago. Sarkisian will call enough of the right plays and Jake Locker will do enough to keep Washington within a TD and possibly pull the road upset. PICK: Arizona State 26 – Washington 24
Iowa @ Wisconsin (Under 47.5)
This game holds much significance for the Big 10 and while the Hawkeyes travel to Madison as the underdog I expect this game to be a defensive struggle. Wisconsin held Ohio State’s offense in check nicely last week while Iowa had an unusual shootout win over Michigan. Both teams will try to limit the mistakes and turnovers and give themselves a chance to win in the 4th quarter. Although I think Iowa has a good chance to remain unbeaten in this game and pull the mild upset I believe the best bet is the under. PICK: Iowa 19 – Wisconsin 17
Regular Lox
Texas (-3) vs. Oklahoma
I have not been a big fan of the Longhorns this year as their offense has been unimpressive, their defense has been good, but not great and they have needed the special teams and Jordan Shipley to bail them out of their tough games. But I think they find their rhythm this week and step up their game against their arch rival. Oklahoma’s injuries are still holding them back with WR Ryan Broyles to play this week but probably not at full strength and Sam Bradford still recovering from his shoulder injury. As I’ve said though the biggest loss was TE Jermaine Gresham for the season because without that target in the middle of the field the Oklahoma offense has been average. This game can save their season after two losses non-conference, but I think the Longhorns have been waiting for this game since watching Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship and then the National Title game last year. They don’t want to leave any doubt this time as to who will be the last Big 12 team standing. PICK: Texas 30 – Oklahoma 24
UCLA (+4) vs. California
Neither of these teams expected to be facing a must win game this early. But starting off 0-2 in the Pac 10 will do that. Jeff Tedford has never won a game in Los Angeles and is favored in this one. That’s right, never beaten USC or UCLA in southern California. Cal will try to change their fortune and save a few bucks in the process by taking the bus 500 miles to the Rose Bowl rather than fly as normal. We’ll see if that energizes the Golden Bear offense that has been non-existent in their back to back losses. UCLA has been strong on defense while their offense has been equally as bad. But I think they will have enough on both sides to match Cal and with the home crowd behind them will continue their dominance of the Bears in LA. PICK: UCLA 23 – Cal 21
Texas Tech @ Nebraska (Under 60)
The Nebraska defense will be the key to this game as it has been all year. They will try to control the clock on offense and keep the quick strike Red Raiders off the field. Tech is coming off their best game of the year, a 66-14 shellacking of Kansas State, but they will face a hostile crowd and impenetrable defensive line this game. I think Tech will score because the Husker pass defense will have a few breakdowns, but with the ball control style favored by Bo Pelini in games like this they will not get enough chances to reach the total of 60. I think Nebraska wins the game by wearing down the Red Raider defense and putting enough pressure on the offense to limit the damage. PICK: Nebraska 30 – Texas Tech 21
Upset Special
Stanford (+4.5) @ Arizona
UCLA (+4) vs. California – see above
Premium Lox
USC (-10) @ Notre Dame
The Trojans have dominated this series with Pete Carroll and I expect this game to be no different. There are a lot of people expecting Jimmy Clausen and company to make a statement in this game but I think it will be the opposite sideline celebrating early and often. USC is motivated by the recovery of Stafon Johnson and you can bet they will play a great game. Notre Dame is hurting without WR Michael Floyd and I expect them to have trouble on offense as they have the last two years in this matchup. Jimmy Clausen will make enough plays to put points on the board but USC will wear down the Irish on both sides of the ball and cover the 10 points. PICK: USC 31 – Notre Dame 17
Washington (+6.5) @ Arizona State
The Huskies seem to be a team of destiny this year with improbable wins over USC and Arizona last week. The Sun Devils have not showed much this year and with the Huskies the underdog by a TD I will take that any day. The Huskies showed they can compete on the road as they took Notre Dame to OT two weeks ago. Sarkisian will call enough of the right plays and Jake Locker will do enough to keep Washington within a TD and possibly pull the road upset. PICK: Arizona State 26 – Washington 24
Iowa @ Wisconsin (Under 47.5)
This game holds much significance for the Big 10 and while the Hawkeyes travel to Madison as the underdog I expect this game to be a defensive struggle. Wisconsin held Ohio State’s offense in check nicely last week while Iowa had an unusual shootout win over Michigan. Both teams will try to limit the mistakes and turnovers and give themselves a chance to win in the 4th quarter. Although I think Iowa has a good chance to remain unbeaten in this game and pull the mild upset I believe the best bet is the under. PICK: Iowa 19 – Wisconsin 17
Regular Lox
Texas (-3) vs. Oklahoma
I have not been a big fan of the Longhorns this year as their offense has been unimpressive, their defense has been good, but not great and they have needed the special teams and Jordan Shipley to bail them out of their tough games. But I think they find their rhythm this week and step up their game against their arch rival. Oklahoma’s injuries are still holding them back with WR Ryan Broyles to play this week but probably not at full strength and Sam Bradford still recovering from his shoulder injury. As I’ve said though the biggest loss was TE Jermaine Gresham for the season because without that target in the middle of the field the Oklahoma offense has been average. This game can save their season after two losses non-conference, but I think the Longhorns have been waiting for this game since watching Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship and then the National Title game last year. They don’t want to leave any doubt this time as to who will be the last Big 12 team standing. PICK: Texas 30 – Oklahoma 24
UCLA (+4) vs. California
Neither of these teams expected to be facing a must win game this early. But starting off 0-2 in the Pac 10 will do that. Jeff Tedford has never won a game in Los Angeles and is favored in this one. That’s right, never beaten USC or UCLA in southern California. Cal will try to change their fortune and save a few bucks in the process by taking the bus 500 miles to the Rose Bowl rather than fly as normal. We’ll see if that energizes the Golden Bear offense that has been non-existent in their back to back losses. UCLA has been strong on defense while their offense has been equally as bad. But I think they will have enough on both sides to match Cal and with the home crowd behind them will continue their dominance of the Bears in LA. PICK: UCLA 23 – Cal 21
Texas Tech @ Nebraska (Under 60)
The Nebraska defense will be the key to this game as it has been all year. They will try to control the clock on offense and keep the quick strike Red Raiders off the field. Tech is coming off their best game of the year, a 66-14 shellacking of Kansas State, but they will face a hostile crowd and impenetrable defensive line this game. I think Tech will score because the Husker pass defense will have a few breakdowns, but with the ball control style favored by Bo Pelini in games like this they will not get enough chances to reach the total of 60. I think Nebraska wins the game by wearing down the Red Raider defense and putting enough pressure on the offense to limit the damage. PICK: Nebraska 30 – Texas Tech 21
Upset Special
Stanford (+4.5) @ Arizona
UCLA (+4) vs. California – see above
Week 6 in Review
If this last Saturday of football taught us anything it is that although parity is prevalent throughout college football, the top teams are there for a reason. Florida and Alabama both subdued possibly the toughest matchups they will face all year and set their seasons up for a matchup of undefeated teams in the SEC championship. Florida went into Baton Rouge and unmercifully beat LSU for the first time on Saturday night in years. The defense was the story line even after Tim Tebow started the game and played admirably. The 13-3 final score shows Florida is an all-around juggernaut that can beat a team any possible way.
Alabama continued its early dominance this season by jumping on Ole Miss early and often in their 22-3 win in Oxford, Miss. This game could have got ugly if not for the Rebel defense holding the Tide to 5 field goals. Houston Nutt could find no answers on offense, while Alabama moved the ball at will but could not find the end zone. Alabama continues to impress against good competition and with their toughest games left at home are well on their way to a second straight undefeated regular season. The rivalry game at Auburn to end the year stands out.
With nine teams yet to feel the sting of a loss this year and the BCS standings set to come out following this weekend’s action, I feel it is time for an initial ranking of the top 10 teams that I have seen thus far. This is by no means a list of the teams I feel will end up here at the end of the year, but a rankings showing the teams that have performed best up to this point.
1. Alabama – Wins over Virginia Tech, Arkansas, at Kentucky and Ole Miss shows they are for real and will be tough to beat. Saban has put the disappointing finish to last season behind this team. Look out.
2. Florida – Wins at Kentucky and LSU were impressive after the stinker vs. Tennessee. But Alabama has faced stiffer competition. With or without Tebow this team would be hard to beat.
3. Cincinnati – The Bearcats are also undefeated and can boast a huge conference road win at Rutgers, a big non-conference road win at Oregon State and a home win over a Fresno State team that could be very good. They play South Florida Thursday in an early battle of unbeaten Big East teams. A win here would further the Bearcats case.
4. Boise State – With the win over Oregon and tough road wins over Fresno State and Tulsa, the undefeated Broncos hold this spot. But like most voters I will probably drop them when the wins become less impressive and teams behind them beat good competition.
5. Texas – The Longhorns claim this spot by default. I have not been impressed at all with this team or Colt McCoy. They needed exceptional special teams play to beat Texas Tech and Colorado. A lot on the line vs. Oklahoma this week.
6. USC – Even with the loss to Washington, the Trojans have road wins over Ohio State and Cal, both teams thought to be in the upper echelon. The fact that USC was playing w/o their starting QB in the loss helps this ranking. They have work to do on offense, but the defense is still there and that means the Trojans will be in the end.
7. Iowa – The pollsters don’t give Kirk Ferentz and his Hawkeye team enough credit. They are the lone undefeated Big 10 team and beat Penn State in Happy Valley. They also can boast wins over Arizona and Michigan and although they have close wins over outmatched Northern Iowa and Arkansas State, a win is still a win and the Hawkeyes are unbeaten.
8. Virginia Tech – Although they have the loss to Bama and another close win over Nebraska, they did dominate Miami. A big one awaits the Hokies this week at Georgia Tech.
9. Miami – Yes the Hurricanes got blown out at VT but wins over FSU, GT and Oklahoma were impressive. They survived the hardest first month schedule in the country and now are positioned to make a run at the ACC if VT loses.
10. TCU – The Horned Frogs are another of the unbeatens and with wins at Virginia, at Clemson and at Air Force they claim this spot. They have difficult games vs. Utah and BYU left but could find themselves in the BCS by winning out. They would probably have a case over Boise State since the MWC is significantly better top to bottom than the WAC.
Just missing out for now are Oregon, Ohio State, Nebraska, Kansas and LSU. Oregon is working its way up after the opening loss to Boise. Ohio State has not beat anybody good and even with the oh-so-close single loss to USC does not make the grade. OSU needs to win on the road and beat a decent team convincingly to make the top 10 in my opinion, even though the BCS I’m sure will give them the benefit of the doubt. Nebraska is a fluke play away from being unbeaten and top 5. While Kansas is 5-0 behind a cup-cake early schedule, until they beat a good team they won’t crack these rankings. LSU has underachieved thus far, even with just the one loss, but will have the chances to get back to the top with a tough schedule going forward.
A lot will change this weekend and every Saturday left on the schedule. But my guess is those top 2 will stay the same until the first Saturday in December at the SEC Championship game.
Quick Notes from Week 6
Speaking of the Ohio State University, the final score over Wisconsin (31-13) looks convincing. But if you watched the game you saw the Badgers dominate on offense, compiling advantages of 22-8 in first downs and 368-164 in yards, more than doubling the offensive output of the Buckeyes. The difference was 3 return TDs by OSU, including two INTs for TDs and one kick return. The Buckeyes might be feeling good about things, but should not get too excited. They have no consistency on offense against the good defenses they have faced. And shutting out Toledo and Illinois does not show me anything on defense. With games at Penn State and Michigan and Iowa visiting Columbus, I expect OSU to lose two of those games and wouldn’t be surprised if they are upset in another. The thing about the Big 10 and all conferences except the Pac 10 is not all teams face each other every year. The Big 10 plays 8 conference games a year, skipping two opponents each season and takes the MAC to the woodshed every year . The Pac 10 is the only conference that plays a true conference schedule every year, 9 games against every other school. OSU has only 4 road games all year, all conference games, and until they beat a good team outside of the Big 10 I will refuse to believe this team is anything special and I wish the voters who count would see the same thing.
Saturday Lox Week 6 In Review
Premium Lox
Week 6: 2-1
Overall: 10-11
Winners:
Nebraska (-3): 27-12
This Thursday night game was played in a rain storm in Missouri as Nebraska exacted revenge for two straight beat downs by Missouri. The weather favored the home team for 3 quarters as Nebraska’s offense could not find any rhythm and Missouri got a TD on the final play of the half to lead 12-0 and feel in control of the game. But on 3rd and 8 early in the final period, Zac Lee threw a 54 yard TD pass for Nebraska and the whole game changed. Missouri threw INTs on consecutive drives and before the home crowd looked up the Cornhuskers had a 20-12 lead in a matter of minutes, finishing off the game later with another TD. The constant the entire night was the Nebraska defense led by DT Ndamukong Suh. He is the best football player I have seen all year, dominating from a position few in the college game can do. His final stat line read like this: 6 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass breakup and 1 interception (led to go ahead TD). The guy can do it all and with him in the middle of Bo Pelini’s defense the Cornhuskers feel they can go a long way toward erasing the Bill Callahan era in Lincoln. A long season awaits both these teams in a rugged Big 12 but with Oklahoma and Texas showing signs of mortality the Big 12 North can compete for the title this year.
West Virginia (-10): 34-13
The Mountaineers won this game through the air instead of the ground game preferred in past years. Syracuse had no answer for any of the weapons for West Virginia as Noel Devine ran well, but Jarrett Brown led the air attack to an easy win. West Virginia is not getting any national publicity while fellow Big East rival Cincinnati is top 10 and cruising. The Mountaineers have played well all year, just a trip up to Auburn in a game they gave away with interceptions. Watch out for this team the rest of the year as they have the talent to win the conference if they continue to play balanced on offense and solid on defense. I would love to see a WV – Cincinnati game to decide the conference.
Losers:
South Carolina (-9.5): 28-26
Steve Spurrier’s team barely escaped a motivated Kentucky team in this game, needing a two-point conversion stop to keep the lead late. Kentucky came off two tough losses to Florida and Alabama and I expected them to be flat after those games, but they played great even when their QB left the game with injury and almost pulled off a big road upset. South Carolina moved on though and with Spurrier’s best start since he took over have a chance at a special season. A big game awaits them in Tuscaloosa this week.
Regular Lox
Week 6: 0-3
Overall: 8-11-1
Losers:
Ole Miss (+6): 3-22
Alabama was too good on this day for the Rebels or any other teams for that matter. Ole Miss could not do anything on offense all game and while their defense held strong, holding Alabama to 5 field goals it was not meant to be. Trailing 9-0 near the end of the half, Mark Ingram broke a long TD run for the Tide’s only TD of the game but it was the nail in the coffin as Ole Miss could not do anything in the second half. Houston Nutt has lost the magic this team showed last year, obviously hurting with their best offensive lineman now playing on Sundays in Baltimore. They have not protected QB Jevan Snead all year and Alabama made it a miserable day each time he dropped back to pass. It could be a long season if their offense does not get it figured out in a hurry.
Georgia @ Tennessee (Under 46.5): 45-19
The Volunteer offense finally showed some life with a big day by QB Jonathan Crompton. I did not expect Tennessee to put up 45 points over 2 games, but they did it here against a very suspect Georgia defense. In fact Georgia needed a kickoff return and interception return for TDs to even stay in this game early. Without those big plays the under would have at least been in range but this was not to be as the Tennessee offense was too good for a Georgia defense that needs to step up if they are to compete. We’ll see how both these teams move forward in the SEC West, but don’t expect another 45 point performance from Lane Kiffin and company.
Arizona (-3): 33-36
File this game under “fluke” plays. With Arizona comfortably in control most of the second half and leading 33-21 late in the game Jake Locker led Washington on a TD drive to make it close. With two minutes left a quick screen pass to try to get a clinching first down and run out the clock ricocheted off an Arizona receiver’s foot and into a Husky defender who ran it back for a TD and the victory. Tucson will be talking about this for a long time to come as it appeared the ball hit the turf before bouncing back up. Unbelievably the play was upheld and the Huskies got another miraculous home win. Arizona though dominated the yardage and first downs, ending the game with advantages of 461-256 yards and 26-14 in first downs. Arizona would have been ranked if they pulled this out and in great position in the Pac 10 after a big road win over Oregon State earlier. As it is the Huskies got the victory and Arizona heads home deflated after a fluke loss that will have bettors screaming at referees for some time to come.
Upset Specials
Week 6: 1-1 (outright upsets)
Overall: 5-9 (outright upsets)
Indiana (+6) did not come to play in Virginia and were beaten soundly 47-7. Virginia is waking from the dead as usual under Al Groh, after a horrible start they have beat North Carolina and Indiana convincingly. If Al Groh could coach like this to start a season the Cavaliers would be a legitimate contender, but losing to William & Mary to open the season makes these wins a little less special.
Georgia Tech (+4) needed all the offense they got to beat Florida State after lightning delayed this game for hours. When they resumed play in the first half each team scored at will with FSU leading 35-28 at half. But GT stepped up their defense after halftime and put enough points on the board to beat Jimbo Fisher’s Seminoles 49-44, oops I mean Bobby Bowden. Nothing looks good in Tallahassee right now as FSU has its worst record since Bobby became coach. They will need several wins the rest of the way to make a bowl and if they don’t you have to figure Bowden will be gone one way or another.
Alabama continued its early dominance this season by jumping on Ole Miss early and often in their 22-3 win in Oxford, Miss. This game could have got ugly if not for the Rebel defense holding the Tide to 5 field goals. Houston Nutt could find no answers on offense, while Alabama moved the ball at will but could not find the end zone. Alabama continues to impress against good competition and with their toughest games left at home are well on their way to a second straight undefeated regular season. The rivalry game at Auburn to end the year stands out.
With nine teams yet to feel the sting of a loss this year and the BCS standings set to come out following this weekend’s action, I feel it is time for an initial ranking of the top 10 teams that I have seen thus far. This is by no means a list of the teams I feel will end up here at the end of the year, but a rankings showing the teams that have performed best up to this point.
1. Alabama – Wins over Virginia Tech, Arkansas, at Kentucky and Ole Miss shows they are for real and will be tough to beat. Saban has put the disappointing finish to last season behind this team. Look out.
2. Florida – Wins at Kentucky and LSU were impressive after the stinker vs. Tennessee. But Alabama has faced stiffer competition. With or without Tebow this team would be hard to beat.
3. Cincinnati – The Bearcats are also undefeated and can boast a huge conference road win at Rutgers, a big non-conference road win at Oregon State and a home win over a Fresno State team that could be very good. They play South Florida Thursday in an early battle of unbeaten Big East teams. A win here would further the Bearcats case.
4. Boise State – With the win over Oregon and tough road wins over Fresno State and Tulsa, the undefeated Broncos hold this spot. But like most voters I will probably drop them when the wins become less impressive and teams behind them beat good competition.
5. Texas – The Longhorns claim this spot by default. I have not been impressed at all with this team or Colt McCoy. They needed exceptional special teams play to beat Texas Tech and Colorado. A lot on the line vs. Oklahoma this week.
6. USC – Even with the loss to Washington, the Trojans have road wins over Ohio State and Cal, both teams thought to be in the upper echelon. The fact that USC was playing w/o their starting QB in the loss helps this ranking. They have work to do on offense, but the defense is still there and that means the Trojans will be in the end.
7. Iowa – The pollsters don’t give Kirk Ferentz and his Hawkeye team enough credit. They are the lone undefeated Big 10 team and beat Penn State in Happy Valley. They also can boast wins over Arizona and Michigan and although they have close wins over outmatched Northern Iowa and Arkansas State, a win is still a win and the Hawkeyes are unbeaten.
8. Virginia Tech – Although they have the loss to Bama and another close win over Nebraska, they did dominate Miami. A big one awaits the Hokies this week at Georgia Tech.
9. Miami – Yes the Hurricanes got blown out at VT but wins over FSU, GT and Oklahoma were impressive. They survived the hardest first month schedule in the country and now are positioned to make a run at the ACC if VT loses.
10. TCU – The Horned Frogs are another of the unbeatens and with wins at Virginia, at Clemson and at Air Force they claim this spot. They have difficult games vs. Utah and BYU left but could find themselves in the BCS by winning out. They would probably have a case over Boise State since the MWC is significantly better top to bottom than the WAC.
Just missing out for now are Oregon, Ohio State, Nebraska, Kansas and LSU. Oregon is working its way up after the opening loss to Boise. Ohio State has not beat anybody good and even with the oh-so-close single loss to USC does not make the grade. OSU needs to win on the road and beat a decent team convincingly to make the top 10 in my opinion, even though the BCS I’m sure will give them the benefit of the doubt. Nebraska is a fluke play away from being unbeaten and top 5. While Kansas is 5-0 behind a cup-cake early schedule, until they beat a good team they won’t crack these rankings. LSU has underachieved thus far, even with just the one loss, but will have the chances to get back to the top with a tough schedule going forward.
A lot will change this weekend and every Saturday left on the schedule. But my guess is those top 2 will stay the same until the first Saturday in December at the SEC Championship game.
Quick Notes from Week 6
Speaking of the Ohio State University, the final score over Wisconsin (31-13) looks convincing. But if you watched the game you saw the Badgers dominate on offense, compiling advantages of 22-8 in first downs and 368-164 in yards, more than doubling the offensive output of the Buckeyes. The difference was 3 return TDs by OSU, including two INTs for TDs and one kick return. The Buckeyes might be feeling good about things, but should not get too excited. They have no consistency on offense against the good defenses they have faced. And shutting out Toledo and Illinois does not show me anything on defense. With games at Penn State and Michigan and Iowa visiting Columbus, I expect OSU to lose two of those games and wouldn’t be surprised if they are upset in another. The thing about the Big 10 and all conferences except the Pac 10 is not all teams face each other every year. The Big 10 plays 8 conference games a year, skipping two opponents each season and takes the MAC to the woodshed every year . The Pac 10 is the only conference that plays a true conference schedule every year, 9 games against every other school. OSU has only 4 road games all year, all conference games, and until they beat a good team outside of the Big 10 I will refuse to believe this team is anything special and I wish the voters who count would see the same thing.
Saturday Lox Week 6 In Review
Premium Lox
Week 6: 2-1
Overall: 10-11
Winners:
Nebraska (-3): 27-12
This Thursday night game was played in a rain storm in Missouri as Nebraska exacted revenge for two straight beat downs by Missouri. The weather favored the home team for 3 quarters as Nebraska’s offense could not find any rhythm and Missouri got a TD on the final play of the half to lead 12-0 and feel in control of the game. But on 3rd and 8 early in the final period, Zac Lee threw a 54 yard TD pass for Nebraska and the whole game changed. Missouri threw INTs on consecutive drives and before the home crowd looked up the Cornhuskers had a 20-12 lead in a matter of minutes, finishing off the game later with another TD. The constant the entire night was the Nebraska defense led by DT Ndamukong Suh. He is the best football player I have seen all year, dominating from a position few in the college game can do. His final stat line read like this: 6 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass breakup and 1 interception (led to go ahead TD). The guy can do it all and with him in the middle of Bo Pelini’s defense the Cornhuskers feel they can go a long way toward erasing the Bill Callahan era in Lincoln. A long season awaits both these teams in a rugged Big 12 but with Oklahoma and Texas showing signs of mortality the Big 12 North can compete for the title this year.
West Virginia (-10): 34-13
The Mountaineers won this game through the air instead of the ground game preferred in past years. Syracuse had no answer for any of the weapons for West Virginia as Noel Devine ran well, but Jarrett Brown led the air attack to an easy win. West Virginia is not getting any national publicity while fellow Big East rival Cincinnati is top 10 and cruising. The Mountaineers have played well all year, just a trip up to Auburn in a game they gave away with interceptions. Watch out for this team the rest of the year as they have the talent to win the conference if they continue to play balanced on offense and solid on defense. I would love to see a WV – Cincinnati game to decide the conference.
Losers:
South Carolina (-9.5): 28-26
Steve Spurrier’s team barely escaped a motivated Kentucky team in this game, needing a two-point conversion stop to keep the lead late. Kentucky came off two tough losses to Florida and Alabama and I expected them to be flat after those games, but they played great even when their QB left the game with injury and almost pulled off a big road upset. South Carolina moved on though and with Spurrier’s best start since he took over have a chance at a special season. A big game awaits them in Tuscaloosa this week.
Regular Lox
Week 6: 0-3
Overall: 8-11-1
Losers:
Ole Miss (+6): 3-22
Alabama was too good on this day for the Rebels or any other teams for that matter. Ole Miss could not do anything on offense all game and while their defense held strong, holding Alabama to 5 field goals it was not meant to be. Trailing 9-0 near the end of the half, Mark Ingram broke a long TD run for the Tide’s only TD of the game but it was the nail in the coffin as Ole Miss could not do anything in the second half. Houston Nutt has lost the magic this team showed last year, obviously hurting with their best offensive lineman now playing on Sundays in Baltimore. They have not protected QB Jevan Snead all year and Alabama made it a miserable day each time he dropped back to pass. It could be a long season if their offense does not get it figured out in a hurry.
Georgia @ Tennessee (Under 46.5): 45-19
The Volunteer offense finally showed some life with a big day by QB Jonathan Crompton. I did not expect Tennessee to put up 45 points over 2 games, but they did it here against a very suspect Georgia defense. In fact Georgia needed a kickoff return and interception return for TDs to even stay in this game early. Without those big plays the under would have at least been in range but this was not to be as the Tennessee offense was too good for a Georgia defense that needs to step up if they are to compete. We’ll see how both these teams move forward in the SEC West, but don’t expect another 45 point performance from Lane Kiffin and company.
Arizona (-3): 33-36
File this game under “fluke” plays. With Arizona comfortably in control most of the second half and leading 33-21 late in the game Jake Locker led Washington on a TD drive to make it close. With two minutes left a quick screen pass to try to get a clinching first down and run out the clock ricocheted off an Arizona receiver’s foot and into a Husky defender who ran it back for a TD and the victory. Tucson will be talking about this for a long time to come as it appeared the ball hit the turf before bouncing back up. Unbelievably the play was upheld and the Huskies got another miraculous home win. Arizona though dominated the yardage and first downs, ending the game with advantages of 461-256 yards and 26-14 in first downs. Arizona would have been ranked if they pulled this out and in great position in the Pac 10 after a big road win over Oregon State earlier. As it is the Huskies got the victory and Arizona heads home deflated after a fluke loss that will have bettors screaming at referees for some time to come.
Upset Specials
Week 6: 1-1 (outright upsets)
Overall: 5-9 (outright upsets)
Indiana (+6) did not come to play in Virginia and were beaten soundly 47-7. Virginia is waking from the dead as usual under Al Groh, after a horrible start they have beat North Carolina and Indiana convincingly. If Al Groh could coach like this to start a season the Cavaliers would be a legitimate contender, but losing to William & Mary to open the season makes these wins a little less special.
Georgia Tech (+4) needed all the offense they got to beat Florida State after lightning delayed this game for hours. When they resumed play in the first half each team scored at will with FSU leading 35-28 at half. But GT stepped up their defense after halftime and put enough points on the board to beat Jimbo Fisher’s Seminoles 49-44, oops I mean Bobby Bowden. Nothing looks good in Tallahassee right now as FSU has its worst record since Bobby became coach. They will need several wins the rest of the way to make a bowl and if they don’t you have to figure Bowden will be gone one way or another.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Week 6 College Football
Games of the Week
#1 Florida (-7) @ #4 LSU
Players:
Florida: QB Tim Tebow, RB Jeff Demps, LB Brandon Spikes, CB Joe Haden
LSU: QB Jordan Jefferson, WR Brandon LaFell, CB Patrick Peterson, DE Rahim Alem
The big question heading into this game is whether Tim Tebow will play. From my understanding if he feels OK after the flight to Baton Rouge he will be cleared by the doctors and knowing his competitive nature, he will start. The bigger question in my mind is which LSU team will show up. They had lackluster performances all season before their win at Georgia last week, and even in that game played a great first half but could not capitalize on offense and let UGA back in the game, before winning in the final minute after a controversial celebration penalty on Georgia. LSU thrives on being disrespected and last week showed as they were the underdogs as the #4 team in the country. This week it is understandable they are underdogs, but Les Miles will use any motivation he can to get his team ready to play. The winner of this game has won the National Championship 3 years in a row. Both teams feel this game could make it 4 in a row. For LSU their biggest advantage, Tebow or not, is with this game being played under the lights. Most teams would throw out stats like this, but with LSU it is a distinct advantage that cannot be coincidence, they have 32 consecutive wins on Saturday nights in Baton Rouge, while day games at Tiger Stadium they have lost regularly. For LSU to continue the streak the defense will have to continue dominating and Jordan Jefferson will need to control the ball and find his playmakers at receiver, LaFell and Terrance Toliver. For the Gators they will need to run the ball consistently to wear down the defense and keep their QB upright. On defense they would like to harass the young LSU QB into turnovers and sacks and turn any turnover into points. Nothing would surprise me in this game, LSU has as good a chance against Florida as any team this year, while Florida has had a week to prepare and could come out and dominate like last year. LSU would like to keep this low scoring and win on defense and special teams like last week. It will be college football at its finest on Saturday night in Death Valley, so make sure to cancel date night, return the movies to Blockbuster, take the kids to the babysitter and grab an ice-cold refreshment. You won’t want to miss this classic.
#3 Alabama @ #20 Ole Miss (+6)
Alabama: QB Greg McElroy, RB Mark Ingram, WR Julio Jones
Ole Miss: QB Jevan Snead, WR/RB Dexter McCluster, WR Shay Hodge
Alabama has been perhaps the most impressive team in the country thus far, while Ole Miss has not lived up to the preseason hype, losing at South Carolina a few weeks ago. Both teams have shown very strong defenses, while Alabama has scored at will on good competition. Led by new QB McElroy the Crimson Tide has rolled up over 34 points in each game. Ole Miss on the other hand has struggled with Houston Nutt’s offense and QB Snead has turned the ball over frequently. Alabama has dominated this series in wins with 5 in a row, but the last 4 have been decided by 3 or 4 points. This is the game the Rebels circled on their calendar as they must beat Alabama if they are to stake claim to the SEC West. Easier said than done. Playing the biggest home game since the Eli Manning days should give Ole Miss motivation to play their A game for the first time all year and they will need all aspects playing great to pull the upset. I expect the Rebel offense to pull out trick plays and gadgets that Houston Nutt is saving for this game. Alabama will play straight up as usual as they believe they are the better team. RB Mark Ingram is the player to watch on offense and WR Julio Jones is a game breaker for the Coach Nick Saban. This was a national spotlight game for Ole Miss before the loss and they will be ready to prove they can play with the Tide. See below for my pick.
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
Kentucky @ #25 South Carolina (-9.5)
Steve Spurrier has his team playing great football with the only blemish a close loss at Georgia. The offense is balanced behind QB Stephen Garcia and the defense has been tremendous. Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky and I don’t expect that to change here. The Wildcats are off two tough losses to Florida and Alabama and now must travel with a banged up team. I expect South Carolina to jump on Kentucky early and hold on for the cover. Garcia should have a big game versus a weak secondary and the SC defense should play a big game after taking the week off vs. 1-AA South Carolina State last week. Spurrier is 9-5 as a home favorite since taking over at SC and should have no problem adding to it this week. PICK: South Carolina 31 – Kentucky 14
West Virginia (-10) @ Syracuse
Finally an opportunity to mention WVa. RB Noel Devine. He ranks among the best in the country with his breakaway speed, nifty moves and ability to find even the smallest openings in a defense. Similar to former Mountaineer Steve Slaton, Devine hits the hole quicker and can get into gear faster than any RB I have seen this year. He is small but not afraid of contact and should have no problem showing all his attributes against Syracuse. QB Jarrett Brown is also capable of great things since replacing Pat White at QB and the offense switching to a passing spread attack rather than the running spread option that White favored. Syracuse has not seen this kind of speed yet this year, even with having already faced Penn State and USF, and will have trouble stopping them at any point. I expect WR Jock Sanders to also have a big game receiving and the Mountaineers to open Big East play with a road victory. Syracuse should be able to move the ball and score points but they will be playing from behind all day and will not have enough to keep this close. WV is 17-10-1 this decade as road favorites, so take the Mountaineers and enjoy the running of Noel Devine. PICK: West Virginia 41 – Syracuse 24
Regular Lox
# 3 Alabama @ #20 Ole Miss (+6)
My first inclination tells me Alabama is the team ready to provide a statement to the rest of the SEC, but Houston Nutt is familiar with big upsets (wins over Florida last year, #1 LSU and #2 Auburn in 06 and 07 while at Arkansas) and this one would qualify. I think the experience in big games after last year’s surprise run and this year’s high expectations will provide Ole Miss an edge. They are a senior dominated team going against an inexperienced SEC QB playing on the road with many young stars. Alabama will also be without LB Dont’a Hightower after injuring his knee last week. Ole Miss is 12-5 against the spread over the last decade as home underdogs. Alabama may be the last one standing in the SEC West at the end of the year, but this game may be the one slip up. Watch RB McCluster line up in the backfield to get more touches for Ole Miss, something that produced big plays last year and the entire Rebel team to play their best game yet. Snead can quiet a lot of critics on Saturday with a big performance. PICK: Ole Miss 24 – Alabama 23
Georgia @ Tennessee (Under 46.5)
Georgia has shown to be Jekyll and Hyde this year on offense, with lackluster performances against OK State, Arizona State and LSU, while running up points versus South Carolina and Arkansas. Tennessee showed some chinks in its defensive armor last week when Auburn and its spread offense came to Knoxville, but I suspect the defense will get back to dominating against a pro-style offense like the Bulldogs. And while the Volunteer offense put up big yardage against Auburn they are still unable to put TDs on the board against good teams. The key here will be Georgia’s inability to run the ball and Monte Kiffin’s defense turning them one dimensional. If Georgia is forced to pass all game they will have trouble scoring points, just what LSU did to them last week. I expect another close game for both teams with Lane Kiffin having a chance to get a big home win. But the best bet here is the Under 46.5. PICK: Tennessee 21 – Georgia 20
Arizona (-3) @ Washington
I hate to go against the Huskies after their early season success, but after two tough road losses, the last one an excruciating OT loss, I expect the more talented Wildcats to have the edge. Stanford exposed the Huskies on the ground and Notre Dame did it through the air. Arizona has a punishing back in Nic Grigsby that will have his way like Toby Gerhardt did against the Washington D-line. It is hard to pick against the Huskies at home, where they will be happy to be back. But I think Mike Stoops has his team playing great, with the only loss at Iowa, and they showed they can win on the road two weeks ago in Corvallis. Arizona is 6-1 ATS at Washington since 1992. Jake Locker is the real deal and will do everything he can to keep the Huskies in this game, but a tired team will not be able to pull it off. PICK: Arizona 31 – Washington 23
Upset Specials
Indiana (+6.5) @ Virginia
Georgia Tech (+4.5) @ Florida State
#1 Florida (-7) @ #4 LSU
Players:
Florida: QB Tim Tebow, RB Jeff Demps, LB Brandon Spikes, CB Joe Haden
LSU: QB Jordan Jefferson, WR Brandon LaFell, CB Patrick Peterson, DE Rahim Alem
The big question heading into this game is whether Tim Tebow will play. From my understanding if he feels OK after the flight to Baton Rouge he will be cleared by the doctors and knowing his competitive nature, he will start. The bigger question in my mind is which LSU team will show up. They had lackluster performances all season before their win at Georgia last week, and even in that game played a great first half but could not capitalize on offense and let UGA back in the game, before winning in the final minute after a controversial celebration penalty on Georgia. LSU thrives on being disrespected and last week showed as they were the underdogs as the #4 team in the country. This week it is understandable they are underdogs, but Les Miles will use any motivation he can to get his team ready to play. The winner of this game has won the National Championship 3 years in a row. Both teams feel this game could make it 4 in a row. For LSU their biggest advantage, Tebow or not, is with this game being played under the lights. Most teams would throw out stats like this, but with LSU it is a distinct advantage that cannot be coincidence, they have 32 consecutive wins on Saturday nights in Baton Rouge, while day games at Tiger Stadium they have lost regularly. For LSU to continue the streak the defense will have to continue dominating and Jordan Jefferson will need to control the ball and find his playmakers at receiver, LaFell and Terrance Toliver. For the Gators they will need to run the ball consistently to wear down the defense and keep their QB upright. On defense they would like to harass the young LSU QB into turnovers and sacks and turn any turnover into points. Nothing would surprise me in this game, LSU has as good a chance against Florida as any team this year, while Florida has had a week to prepare and could come out and dominate like last year. LSU would like to keep this low scoring and win on defense and special teams like last week. It will be college football at its finest on Saturday night in Death Valley, so make sure to cancel date night, return the movies to Blockbuster, take the kids to the babysitter and grab an ice-cold refreshment. You won’t want to miss this classic.
#3 Alabama @ #20 Ole Miss (+6)
Alabama: QB Greg McElroy, RB Mark Ingram, WR Julio Jones
Ole Miss: QB Jevan Snead, WR/RB Dexter McCluster, WR Shay Hodge
Alabama has been perhaps the most impressive team in the country thus far, while Ole Miss has not lived up to the preseason hype, losing at South Carolina a few weeks ago. Both teams have shown very strong defenses, while Alabama has scored at will on good competition. Led by new QB McElroy the Crimson Tide has rolled up over 34 points in each game. Ole Miss on the other hand has struggled with Houston Nutt’s offense and QB Snead has turned the ball over frequently. Alabama has dominated this series in wins with 5 in a row, but the last 4 have been decided by 3 or 4 points. This is the game the Rebels circled on their calendar as they must beat Alabama if they are to stake claim to the SEC West. Easier said than done. Playing the biggest home game since the Eli Manning days should give Ole Miss motivation to play their A game for the first time all year and they will need all aspects playing great to pull the upset. I expect the Rebel offense to pull out trick plays and gadgets that Houston Nutt is saving for this game. Alabama will play straight up as usual as they believe they are the better team. RB Mark Ingram is the player to watch on offense and WR Julio Jones is a game breaker for the Coach Nick Saban. This was a national spotlight game for Ole Miss before the loss and they will be ready to prove they can play with the Tide. See below for my pick.
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
Kentucky @ #25 South Carolina (-9.5)
Steve Spurrier has his team playing great football with the only blemish a close loss at Georgia. The offense is balanced behind QB Stephen Garcia and the defense has been tremendous. Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky and I don’t expect that to change here. The Wildcats are off two tough losses to Florida and Alabama and now must travel with a banged up team. I expect South Carolina to jump on Kentucky early and hold on for the cover. Garcia should have a big game versus a weak secondary and the SC defense should play a big game after taking the week off vs. 1-AA South Carolina State last week. Spurrier is 9-5 as a home favorite since taking over at SC and should have no problem adding to it this week. PICK: South Carolina 31 – Kentucky 14
West Virginia (-10) @ Syracuse
Finally an opportunity to mention WVa. RB Noel Devine. He ranks among the best in the country with his breakaway speed, nifty moves and ability to find even the smallest openings in a defense. Similar to former Mountaineer Steve Slaton, Devine hits the hole quicker and can get into gear faster than any RB I have seen this year. He is small but not afraid of contact and should have no problem showing all his attributes against Syracuse. QB Jarrett Brown is also capable of great things since replacing Pat White at QB and the offense switching to a passing spread attack rather than the running spread option that White favored. Syracuse has not seen this kind of speed yet this year, even with having already faced Penn State and USF, and will have trouble stopping them at any point. I expect WR Jock Sanders to also have a big game receiving and the Mountaineers to open Big East play with a road victory. Syracuse should be able to move the ball and score points but they will be playing from behind all day and will not have enough to keep this close. WV is 17-10-1 this decade as road favorites, so take the Mountaineers and enjoy the running of Noel Devine. PICK: West Virginia 41 – Syracuse 24
Regular Lox
# 3 Alabama @ #20 Ole Miss (+6)
My first inclination tells me Alabama is the team ready to provide a statement to the rest of the SEC, but Houston Nutt is familiar with big upsets (wins over Florida last year, #1 LSU and #2 Auburn in 06 and 07 while at Arkansas) and this one would qualify. I think the experience in big games after last year’s surprise run and this year’s high expectations will provide Ole Miss an edge. They are a senior dominated team going against an inexperienced SEC QB playing on the road with many young stars. Alabama will also be without LB Dont’a Hightower after injuring his knee last week. Ole Miss is 12-5 against the spread over the last decade as home underdogs. Alabama may be the last one standing in the SEC West at the end of the year, but this game may be the one slip up. Watch RB McCluster line up in the backfield to get more touches for Ole Miss, something that produced big plays last year and the entire Rebel team to play their best game yet. Snead can quiet a lot of critics on Saturday with a big performance. PICK: Ole Miss 24 – Alabama 23
Georgia @ Tennessee (Under 46.5)
Georgia has shown to be Jekyll and Hyde this year on offense, with lackluster performances against OK State, Arizona State and LSU, while running up points versus South Carolina and Arkansas. Tennessee showed some chinks in its defensive armor last week when Auburn and its spread offense came to Knoxville, but I suspect the defense will get back to dominating against a pro-style offense like the Bulldogs. And while the Volunteer offense put up big yardage against Auburn they are still unable to put TDs on the board against good teams. The key here will be Georgia’s inability to run the ball and Monte Kiffin’s defense turning them one dimensional. If Georgia is forced to pass all game they will have trouble scoring points, just what LSU did to them last week. I expect another close game for both teams with Lane Kiffin having a chance to get a big home win. But the best bet here is the Under 46.5. PICK: Tennessee 21 – Georgia 20
Arizona (-3) @ Washington
I hate to go against the Huskies after their early season success, but after two tough road losses, the last one an excruciating OT loss, I expect the more talented Wildcats to have the edge. Stanford exposed the Huskies on the ground and Notre Dame did it through the air. Arizona has a punishing back in Nic Grigsby that will have his way like Toby Gerhardt did against the Washington D-line. It is hard to pick against the Huskies at home, where they will be happy to be back. But I think Mike Stoops has his team playing great, with the only loss at Iowa, and they showed they can win on the road two weeks ago in Corvallis. Arizona is 6-1 ATS at Washington since 1992. Jake Locker is the real deal and will do everything he can to keep the Huskies in this game, but a tired team will not be able to pull it off. PICK: Arizona 31 – Washington 23
Upset Specials
Indiana (+6.5) @ Virginia
Georgia Tech (+4.5) @ Florida State
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Week 5 in Review
The highlights from last Saturday were many, with LSU and Georgia fighting until the last snap with the Tigers prevailing to set up an undefeated matchup with the Gators this weekend. Notre Dame pulled out an improbable win over Washington as they stopped the Huskies on the goal line, scored a TD to pull ahead and then saw Jake Locker lead his team to a tying field goal to force OT. But the Irish have been fortunate in close games 3 weeks in a row and escaped the upset once again. You have to believe Irish fans are not satisfied with last second comeback victories over Michigan State, Purdue and Washington and without a good showing against USC, which they haven’t had since the “Bush Push” game in Weis’ first year, Charlie may be on his way out. At 3-1 the season looks better than last year, but with the stock market rolling back up and the Wall Street bankers (ND boosters) counting their money, you just know they want to use that cash intelligently. Why bail out homeowners when you have a football team to save and what better way to use taxpayer funded bail outs than buy out ole’ Charlie’s contract and bring in the next sacrificial lamb. Gotta love the Irish!
If boosters really wanted someone’s head after last week they might take a trip to scenic Berkeley, CA, where for two weeks in a row a team that climbed to #6 in the country failed to score a TD and was blown out by a conference rival. Jeff Tedford and Cal were a product of preseason publicity once again, as their season went down the tubes in losses to Oregon and USC, being outscored 72-6 in the two games. A Kevin Riley interception in the end zone on the first drive of the game quieted the raucous Berkeley crowd and Joe McKnight electrified the USC sideline with a TD run on the ensuing drive and the Trojans never looked back, beating the Bears 30-3, but at least they got the field goal and avoided the dreaded shutout. The Trojans meanwhile have their swagger back and control their destiny for the Pac 10, but are still looking up at 3-0 Stanford in conference.
The Cardinal beat up a UCLA team coming off a bye week that felt they could dominate the Stanford interior lines after beating Tennessee in Knoxville. But it was Stanford that ran the ball right at the Bruins and around them on their way to a 24-6 lead and eventual 24-16 win, as the Bruins came back to make it close in the 4th quarter but could not move the ball on their last drive. Toby Gerhardt once again had an outstanding game, rushing for 3 TDs and 134 yards against a stout UCLA defense. But it was QB Andrew Luck that made the most noise, completing 14-20 passes for 198 yards, with a few perfect long throws to WR Ryan Whalen. He managed to keep the defense honest and made the plays when needed. Dare I say it looked like John Elway back on the Farm, for a week at least. The Cardinal travel to Oregon State and Arizona in back to back weeks so their grip on the Pac 10 lead is tenuous for the moment and we’ll see just how far up Jim Harbaugh has brought his team.
Another big development was Houston losing to UTEP and losing out on a chance to run the table and be in the BCS conversation. After beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech it was letdown time for the Cougars as they travelled to El Paso and were beaten soundly. UTEP came into the game 1-3 including a loss to Buffalo, so this qualifies as a huge upset on the early season. Mike Price, UTEP’s coach, was firmly on the hot seat before this win, but is now VIP at every Gentlemen’s Club in West Texas (remember this is the same Mike Price that was hired by Alabama in 2003 but fired before he coached a game after a scandal erupted over him being caught with a “dancer”). With Houston’s loss the non-BCS contenders are down to TCU and Boise State. TCU has big wins at Clemson and Virginia (well don’t know if Virginia counts as a big win, but it is a BCS school), while Boise’s win over Oregon looks much better now than in the aftermath of the game. TCU has plenty to prove the rest of the way with road games at Air Force this week, at BYU and home to Utah. If they win all 3 and don’t get upset somewhere else along the way, TCU probably deserves a shot in the big bowls. Boise has a much easier road to perfection, but will most likely be jumped in the polls by teams behind them that win big. It will be interesting to see who is left standing at the end of the year and if it is Boise, will the Oregon win be enough to convince voters to put them in the BCS.
Saturday Lox Week 5 in Review
After a miserable start to the season, the Lox had a big comeback in week 5, winning 5 of 6 bets and half the outright upsets. But like Les Miles said after the win in Georgia, you can’t feel good about yourself for long, as next week starts today and although I don’t have to play Florida, I do have to find this week’s winners. But first let’s recap the Lox of week 5 and rejoice in a winning week.
Premium Lox
Week 5: 3-0
Overall: 8-10
Winners:
Ole Miss (-10): 23-7
The Rebels bounced back nicely from their loss to South Carolina and although they didn’t play a great game, led 23-0 and held on in the second half for a 23-7 win over Vanderbilt. Jevan Snead threw 3 TDs but also 3 int’s that almost let Vandy back in the game. He is not living up to the preseason hype yet and will have to bring his A game to beat Alabama this week. Shay Hodge had 122 yards receiving and 2 TDs for Ole Miss, but Dexter McCluster still did not touch the ball much and Houston Nutt’s offense is sputtering without him so far this season. To have any hope of winning the SEC West, the Rebels must get it together before Saturday as Bama has been the most impressive team thus far.
South Florida (-7): 34-20
USF moved to 5-0 on the season with a nice win in the Carrier Dome over Syracuse. But it was not the USF offense that carried the team as their defense forced 7 turnovers and was the deciding factor in the victory. As I predicted Greg Paulus has not faced that kind of pressure since his point guard days for Duke and it showed as he threw 5 int’s and gave the game away. Syracuse had the ball to tie the spread late in the game but was stopped at their own 31 and never had another chance.
Auburn @ Tennessee (Under 51): 26-22
Auburn led the entire game and put up substantial yards against the Vols but settled for 4 field goals that resulted in the game going under the total. Tennessee stayed in the game with a TD late in the half to make it 13-6, then again in the 4th quarter to trail 23-16, but Auburn put another drive together ending in a field goal to clinch the game 26-16. Tennessee scored on the final play of the game to get to 22 but did not attempt the PAT per SEC rules. This was a huge play because the total was bet down to 49 on some books and the PAT could have tied it. No doubt there were people in Vegas thankful for the SEC rules and others cursing their TV because of that obscure rule.
Regular Lox
Week 5: 2-1
Overall: 8-8-1
Winners:
Miami (+7): 21-20
Miami got off to a slow start at home and trailed 10-0 early, with Jacory Harris turning the ball over on his first two possessions. After settling down the Hurricanes got to within 10-7 at halftime. The turning point came when Landry Jones of Oklahoma was sacked and fumbled on the third play of the second half, leading to a Harris TD pass and a lead the Canes would not relinquish. They led 21-10 and seemed in control on both sides of the ball, when the Oklahoma punter faked being roughed up and the referee threw the flag for the 15 yard penalty. It was a horrible call that switched the momentum and almost cost Miami the game. The punter was seen laughing on the sideline after the play. This led to a Sooner TD and a 21-17 game, which turned to 21-20 when Oklahoma settled for a field goal on their next drive. But when Miami got the ball back Harris led them to several first down passes and they were able to take a knee inside Oklahoma’s red zone to pull off the upset. Miami showed some resilience in this game while Oklahoma showed they are a long way from a Championship team. Even with Sam Bradford I don’t believe this is the same Sooner team as we thought, the loss of All American TE Jermaine Gresham actually may be the biggest injury they must overcome. Now the Sooners can only hope to dismantle Texas’ season and win the Big 12, because with 2 losses their title hopes are gone.
Arkansas (-1): 47-19
The Razorbacks enjoyed their time in Cowboys stadium, but must have been in awe for the first several drives. Texas A&M jumped out to a 10-0 lead and looked to be in control in the first quarter, but Ryan Mallet settled down and led Arkansas back with a vengeance. Big plays on defense got them the lead and their offense moved the ball nicely in a big win for Arkansas and a game that Jerry Jones would have loved to see his Cowboys play. The final score was larger than the yardage differential would indicate but Arkansas cruised in the second half to victory to please the large contingent of Razorback fans that made the trip. Tony Romo better watch his back if they don’t start winning, as Jerry Jones will be all over QB Ryan Mallet when he comes into the draft. The transfer from Michigan is learning the position nicely from Bobby Petrino and has the NFL arm to be a high pick. Could this game have been a preview of Mallet’s eventual destination? If Romo keeps up the mediocrity that we have seen, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Losers:
Clemson (-13.5): 21-24
Clemson’s season is slowly falling though their fingers after the upset loss to Maryland. They came in off a tough home loss to TCU and figured to be motivated to play in this ACC rivalry. After dominating the first quarter and leading 10-0 (a trend is developing, you don’t want to lead 10-0 early, you will lose) Clemson completely lost interest in the game and Maryland came roaring back. Clemson though had 3 chances in Terp territory to tie or take the lead but 2 missed field goals and a sack and fumble clinched the big win for Ralph Friedgen and Maryland. I said that Friedgen’s job would be on the line after they lost this game, but I had it opposite, as Dabo Swinney is not making any friends with the Clemson boosters or alumni that backed his controversial hiring. Clemson students like to make signs saying “Yaba Dabo Doo” in reference to Coach Dabo, but those signs might mean coach will be watching Flintstones reruns on Saturdays after his performance lately. Clemson is 2-3 and if this were Tommy Bowden, fans would be screaming for his job. Swinney deserves some time to right the ship, but with all the talent in the world, he can’t continue to lose games like this. Clemson may have the Notre Dame complex and believe they are entitled to win ACC championships and compete for national titles, but they don’t have the leadership or the mental toughness yet to win close games. We’ll see how the year plays out.
Upset Specials
Week 5: 2-2 (outright upsets)
Overall: 4-8 (outright upsets)
Winners:
Wisconsin (+3) and Kansas State (+2)
Wisconsin held on over Minnesota to go to 5-0 and set up a big game this week at Ohio State, while Kansas State blocked a late PAT to preserve a 24-23 win over Iowa State. Both teams were on the road and pulled the upset.
Losers: Michigan (+3) and NC State (+4)
Michigan made a great comeback to force OT against Michigan State, but came up short in their loss. Tate Forcier had another dramatic drive, going 92 yards and throwing a 4th down TD to tie the game. NC State also came up short against Wake Forest, with QB Russell Wilson throwing 2 int’s that snapped the longest streak in the nation without an int. The second came on the final drive with NC State in position to tie the game.
Now onto Week 6 and a big Thursday Night Big 12 game.
Thursday Night Special Premium Lox
#21 Nebraska (-3) @ #24 Missouri
Players:
Nebraska: QB Zac Lee, RB Roy Helu, DT Ndamukong Suh
Missouri: QB Blaine Gabbert, RB Derrick Washington, WR Danario Alexander
The Big 12 usually does not play these ESPN Thursday Night games, but this will be a treat to see two top 25 teams battle it out in their first conference games. Missouri is 4-0, including their surprising upset of Illinois week one, which looks not so surprising the way Illinois has played since. They also won a hard fought game at Nevada. The Cornhuskers are 3-1 but could easily be 4-0 and top 5 in the country, as their only loss was at Virginia Tech in a game they dominated but self destructed on the final drive. Missouri has surprised many people with their offensive fire power after losing their QB and two best targets to the NFL last year. But Gabbert has been spectacular, throwing for 11 TDs and 0 int’s. Washington has been huge on the ground and Alexander and Jared Perry have been great targets, catching 4 and 5 TDs each. But they haven’t faced any good defenses and will face a monster tonight. The Huskers come into this game looking for revenge as they lost 52-17 to Missouri in Lincoln last year and 41-6 the year before. Bo Pelini will remind his team of those crushing losses and Nebraska should be ready to prove they are back at the top of the league. The Huskers will need their defense to slow down Missouri and pressure Gabbert into some bad throws and sacks. Suh will be looking to have a big game on national TV and I expect great things from him. The Nebraska offense will score points behind Zac Lee and Roy Helu, who should carry the team on the ground, and I expect the Cornhuskers to get revenge on the Tigers and bring them down to earth while staking claim to their rightful spot on top of the Big 12 North. PICK: Nebraska 27 – Missouri 20
If boosters really wanted someone’s head after last week they might take a trip to scenic Berkeley, CA, where for two weeks in a row a team that climbed to #6 in the country failed to score a TD and was blown out by a conference rival. Jeff Tedford and Cal were a product of preseason publicity once again, as their season went down the tubes in losses to Oregon and USC, being outscored 72-6 in the two games. A Kevin Riley interception in the end zone on the first drive of the game quieted the raucous Berkeley crowd and Joe McKnight electrified the USC sideline with a TD run on the ensuing drive and the Trojans never looked back, beating the Bears 30-3, but at least they got the field goal and avoided the dreaded shutout. The Trojans meanwhile have their swagger back and control their destiny for the Pac 10, but are still looking up at 3-0 Stanford in conference.
The Cardinal beat up a UCLA team coming off a bye week that felt they could dominate the Stanford interior lines after beating Tennessee in Knoxville. But it was Stanford that ran the ball right at the Bruins and around them on their way to a 24-6 lead and eventual 24-16 win, as the Bruins came back to make it close in the 4th quarter but could not move the ball on their last drive. Toby Gerhardt once again had an outstanding game, rushing for 3 TDs and 134 yards against a stout UCLA defense. But it was QB Andrew Luck that made the most noise, completing 14-20 passes for 198 yards, with a few perfect long throws to WR Ryan Whalen. He managed to keep the defense honest and made the plays when needed. Dare I say it looked like John Elway back on the Farm, for a week at least. The Cardinal travel to Oregon State and Arizona in back to back weeks so their grip on the Pac 10 lead is tenuous for the moment and we’ll see just how far up Jim Harbaugh has brought his team.
Another big development was Houston losing to UTEP and losing out on a chance to run the table and be in the BCS conversation. After beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech it was letdown time for the Cougars as they travelled to El Paso and were beaten soundly. UTEP came into the game 1-3 including a loss to Buffalo, so this qualifies as a huge upset on the early season. Mike Price, UTEP’s coach, was firmly on the hot seat before this win, but is now VIP at every Gentlemen’s Club in West Texas (remember this is the same Mike Price that was hired by Alabama in 2003 but fired before he coached a game after a scandal erupted over him being caught with a “dancer”). With Houston’s loss the non-BCS contenders are down to TCU and Boise State. TCU has big wins at Clemson and Virginia (well don’t know if Virginia counts as a big win, but it is a BCS school), while Boise’s win over Oregon looks much better now than in the aftermath of the game. TCU has plenty to prove the rest of the way with road games at Air Force this week, at BYU and home to Utah. If they win all 3 and don’t get upset somewhere else along the way, TCU probably deserves a shot in the big bowls. Boise has a much easier road to perfection, but will most likely be jumped in the polls by teams behind them that win big. It will be interesting to see who is left standing at the end of the year and if it is Boise, will the Oregon win be enough to convince voters to put them in the BCS.
Saturday Lox Week 5 in Review
After a miserable start to the season, the Lox had a big comeback in week 5, winning 5 of 6 bets and half the outright upsets. But like Les Miles said after the win in Georgia, you can’t feel good about yourself for long, as next week starts today and although I don’t have to play Florida, I do have to find this week’s winners. But first let’s recap the Lox of week 5 and rejoice in a winning week.
Premium Lox
Week 5: 3-0
Overall: 8-10
Winners:
Ole Miss (-10): 23-7
The Rebels bounced back nicely from their loss to South Carolina and although they didn’t play a great game, led 23-0 and held on in the second half for a 23-7 win over Vanderbilt. Jevan Snead threw 3 TDs but also 3 int’s that almost let Vandy back in the game. He is not living up to the preseason hype yet and will have to bring his A game to beat Alabama this week. Shay Hodge had 122 yards receiving and 2 TDs for Ole Miss, but Dexter McCluster still did not touch the ball much and Houston Nutt’s offense is sputtering without him so far this season. To have any hope of winning the SEC West, the Rebels must get it together before Saturday as Bama has been the most impressive team thus far.
South Florida (-7): 34-20
USF moved to 5-0 on the season with a nice win in the Carrier Dome over Syracuse. But it was not the USF offense that carried the team as their defense forced 7 turnovers and was the deciding factor in the victory. As I predicted Greg Paulus has not faced that kind of pressure since his point guard days for Duke and it showed as he threw 5 int’s and gave the game away. Syracuse had the ball to tie the spread late in the game but was stopped at their own 31 and never had another chance.
Auburn @ Tennessee (Under 51): 26-22
Auburn led the entire game and put up substantial yards against the Vols but settled for 4 field goals that resulted in the game going under the total. Tennessee stayed in the game with a TD late in the half to make it 13-6, then again in the 4th quarter to trail 23-16, but Auburn put another drive together ending in a field goal to clinch the game 26-16. Tennessee scored on the final play of the game to get to 22 but did not attempt the PAT per SEC rules. This was a huge play because the total was bet down to 49 on some books and the PAT could have tied it. No doubt there were people in Vegas thankful for the SEC rules and others cursing their TV because of that obscure rule.
Regular Lox
Week 5: 2-1
Overall: 8-8-1
Winners:
Miami (+7): 21-20
Miami got off to a slow start at home and trailed 10-0 early, with Jacory Harris turning the ball over on his first two possessions. After settling down the Hurricanes got to within 10-7 at halftime. The turning point came when Landry Jones of Oklahoma was sacked and fumbled on the third play of the second half, leading to a Harris TD pass and a lead the Canes would not relinquish. They led 21-10 and seemed in control on both sides of the ball, when the Oklahoma punter faked being roughed up and the referee threw the flag for the 15 yard penalty. It was a horrible call that switched the momentum and almost cost Miami the game. The punter was seen laughing on the sideline after the play. This led to a Sooner TD and a 21-17 game, which turned to 21-20 when Oklahoma settled for a field goal on their next drive. But when Miami got the ball back Harris led them to several first down passes and they were able to take a knee inside Oklahoma’s red zone to pull off the upset. Miami showed some resilience in this game while Oklahoma showed they are a long way from a Championship team. Even with Sam Bradford I don’t believe this is the same Sooner team as we thought, the loss of All American TE Jermaine Gresham actually may be the biggest injury they must overcome. Now the Sooners can only hope to dismantle Texas’ season and win the Big 12, because with 2 losses their title hopes are gone.
Arkansas (-1): 47-19
The Razorbacks enjoyed their time in Cowboys stadium, but must have been in awe for the first several drives. Texas A&M jumped out to a 10-0 lead and looked to be in control in the first quarter, but Ryan Mallet settled down and led Arkansas back with a vengeance. Big plays on defense got them the lead and their offense moved the ball nicely in a big win for Arkansas and a game that Jerry Jones would have loved to see his Cowboys play. The final score was larger than the yardage differential would indicate but Arkansas cruised in the second half to victory to please the large contingent of Razorback fans that made the trip. Tony Romo better watch his back if they don’t start winning, as Jerry Jones will be all over QB Ryan Mallet when he comes into the draft. The transfer from Michigan is learning the position nicely from Bobby Petrino and has the NFL arm to be a high pick. Could this game have been a preview of Mallet’s eventual destination? If Romo keeps up the mediocrity that we have seen, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Losers:
Clemson (-13.5): 21-24
Clemson’s season is slowly falling though their fingers after the upset loss to Maryland. They came in off a tough home loss to TCU and figured to be motivated to play in this ACC rivalry. After dominating the first quarter and leading 10-0 (a trend is developing, you don’t want to lead 10-0 early, you will lose) Clemson completely lost interest in the game and Maryland came roaring back. Clemson though had 3 chances in Terp territory to tie or take the lead but 2 missed field goals and a sack and fumble clinched the big win for Ralph Friedgen and Maryland. I said that Friedgen’s job would be on the line after they lost this game, but I had it opposite, as Dabo Swinney is not making any friends with the Clemson boosters or alumni that backed his controversial hiring. Clemson students like to make signs saying “Yaba Dabo Doo” in reference to Coach Dabo, but those signs might mean coach will be watching Flintstones reruns on Saturdays after his performance lately. Clemson is 2-3 and if this were Tommy Bowden, fans would be screaming for his job. Swinney deserves some time to right the ship, but with all the talent in the world, he can’t continue to lose games like this. Clemson may have the Notre Dame complex and believe they are entitled to win ACC championships and compete for national titles, but they don’t have the leadership or the mental toughness yet to win close games. We’ll see how the year plays out.
Upset Specials
Week 5: 2-2 (outright upsets)
Overall: 4-8 (outright upsets)
Winners:
Wisconsin (+3) and Kansas State (+2)
Wisconsin held on over Minnesota to go to 5-0 and set up a big game this week at Ohio State, while Kansas State blocked a late PAT to preserve a 24-23 win over Iowa State. Both teams were on the road and pulled the upset.
Losers: Michigan (+3) and NC State (+4)
Michigan made a great comeback to force OT against Michigan State, but came up short in their loss. Tate Forcier had another dramatic drive, going 92 yards and throwing a 4th down TD to tie the game. NC State also came up short against Wake Forest, with QB Russell Wilson throwing 2 int’s that snapped the longest streak in the nation without an int. The second came on the final drive with NC State in position to tie the game.
Now onto Week 6 and a big Thursday Night Big 12 game.
Thursday Night Special Premium Lox
#21 Nebraska (-3) @ #24 Missouri
Players:
Nebraska: QB Zac Lee, RB Roy Helu, DT Ndamukong Suh
Missouri: QB Blaine Gabbert, RB Derrick Washington, WR Danario Alexander
The Big 12 usually does not play these ESPN Thursday Night games, but this will be a treat to see two top 25 teams battle it out in their first conference games. Missouri is 4-0, including their surprising upset of Illinois week one, which looks not so surprising the way Illinois has played since. They also won a hard fought game at Nevada. The Cornhuskers are 3-1 but could easily be 4-0 and top 5 in the country, as their only loss was at Virginia Tech in a game they dominated but self destructed on the final drive. Missouri has surprised many people with their offensive fire power after losing their QB and two best targets to the NFL last year. But Gabbert has been spectacular, throwing for 11 TDs and 0 int’s. Washington has been huge on the ground and Alexander and Jared Perry have been great targets, catching 4 and 5 TDs each. But they haven’t faced any good defenses and will face a monster tonight. The Huskers come into this game looking for revenge as they lost 52-17 to Missouri in Lincoln last year and 41-6 the year before. Bo Pelini will remind his team of those crushing losses and Nebraska should be ready to prove they are back at the top of the league. The Huskers will need their defense to slow down Missouri and pressure Gabbert into some bad throws and sacks. Suh will be looking to have a big game on national TV and I expect great things from him. The Nebraska offense will score points behind Zac Lee and Roy Helu, who should carry the team on the ground, and I expect the Cornhuskers to get revenge on the Tigers and bring them down to earth while staking claim to their rightful spot on top of the Big 12 North. PICK: Nebraska 27 – Missouri 20
Friday, October 2, 2009
Week 5 College Football
Games of the Week
#8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami (+7)
Players:
Oklahoma: QB Landry Jones (or Sam Bradford), RB Demarco Murray, WR Ryan Broyles
Miami: QB Jacory Harris, RB Graig Cooper, WR Aldarius Johnson
The Sooner defense has been the difference since their opening loss, shutting out back to back opponents, while Landry Jones has filled in nicely. Miami got off to a great start with wins over FSU and GT. Last week though they travelled to VT and were dominated as favorites in a game played in a downpour. I think both teams will be ready to play this one, the Sooners with a chance to erase any doubt after their loss to BYU, while Miami will be back in the sunshine of South Florida knowing that their impatient fans will forget their hot start if they don’t perform well here. With the nation jumping on the Hurricane bandwagon after their quick start and jumping off just as quickly when they crashed in Blacksburg, I think Miami will relish the underdog role again. But will they be good enough to beat a Sooners team hungry to get back in the National Title picture. This will be a very good matchup of ACC and Big 12 powers.
#4 LSU @ #18 Georgia (-3)
LSU: QB Jordan Jefferson, RBs Charles Scott and Keiland Williams, WR Brandon LaFell
Georgia: QB Joe Cox, RB Richard Samuel, WR AJ Green
LSU comes into this game ranked 4th in the country but have not looked great in any game yet. This could bode well for them as they are due for a big game or it could show that they are not as good as advertised. They struggled in wins over Washington and Vanderbilt and last week needed a goal line stand to beat Miss. St, being outgained by the Bulldogs and only a 97 yd punt return and interception return for TDs won the game. Georgia has looked good since their opening loss at Oklahoma State, beating South Carolina and Arkansas in shootouts and holding off Arizona State last week. Georgia has won 3 straight in the series, all by double digits. I expect a closer game this week with the team that is able to run the ball better getting the win. LSU especially needs to be good on the ground to take pressure off their young QB. We will know a lot more about the boys from Baton Rouge after this week and next, when Florida visits for a night game.
#7 USC @ #24 California (+4.5)
USC: QB Matt Barkley, RB Joe McKnight, FS Taylor Mays
Cal: RB Jahvid Best, CB Syd’Quan Thompson
Both teams come into this game reeling for different reasons. Cal’s season took a hit with the annihilation in Autzen last week, while USC lost their leader Stafon Johnson in a freak weight lifting accident on Monday. Who would have thought this game would almost be a must win for each of these teams in the Pac 10 race. Although two losses might win the league this year, neither wants to find out this early. Cal will be desperate to put last week behind them and get RB Best going again on his Heisman campaign. But for that to happen, QB Kevin Riley will have to play his best game to keep the defense honest. It is about time Jeff Tedford won an important game for Cal and this definitely qualifies. USC will have to find a way to ignite a slumbering offense as Matt Barkley will be healthy and ready to show that he can lead the Trojans back to Pac 10 supremacy. I expect Cal to perform much better at home than they were on the road last week, but will they be able to erase the doubt put into their minds from season after season of expectations crashing down. This will be a big test for both teams, with the loser relegated to hoping for the Las Vegas Bowl.
UCLA @ Stanford (-5)
UCLA: RB Jonathan Franklin, WR Terrence Austin, CB Alterraun Verner
Stanford: RB Toby Gerhardt, WR Chris Owusu, QB Andrew Luck
Two teams that have surprised a lot of people early in the season square off in Palo Alto. UCLA is undefeated with the big road win at Tennessee while Stanford is 3-1 and 2-0 in the Pac 10 with wins over the Washington schools. The reason to watch this game is Stanford’s rushing attack, led by Toby Gerhardt (2nd in rushing in the country) going against a strong UCLA defense that has held opponents to 39, 115 and 69 yards rushing in their three games. Look for UCLA to load up the box and let their corners go man to man with Stanford’s receivers and their freshman QB Andrew Luck. This is probably the strongest offense and overall team UCLA has faced (sorry Tennessee) while Stanford will face its toughest defense yet. This game will show a lot about both teams and both coaches as Jim Harbaugh and Rick Neuheisel look to join the Pac 10 elite. I expect a close game with the defenses dominant early. The Cardinal is capable of big plays on special teams as evidenced by 3 kickoff returns for TD by lightning fast Chris Owusu so far this year. That could be the difference between two very evenly matched teams. The home field advantage should help Stanford in a series they have not won since 2003, but the Bruins are off a bye week and will be ready to start Pac 10 play.
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
Ole Miss (-10) @ Vanderbilt
The Rebels are coming off a deflating loss at South Carolina that saw their hopes for a National Title fall flat. They also lost last year at home to Vandy, the week before their upset of Florida. So they will be motivated to recover from last week’s loss while also in a revenge setting against the Commodores. QB Jevan Snead had high hopes coming into the season but has been mediocre at best through 3 games. The key to the offense is getting Dexter McCluster the ball in the open field, something they finally started in the 4th quarter at South Carolina, but was too late to pull that game out. I expect the Rebels to bounce back nicely and put on a good show in anticipation of next week’s tilt against Alabama. PICK: Ole Miss 34 – Vanderbilt 13
South Florida (-7) @ Syracuse
The Bulls from USF showed a lot last week in their win over Florida State. In their first game after a season ending injury to star QB Matt Grothe, who is the all time Big East leader in total offense, they beat the Seminoles behind new QB BJ Daniels. This will be their Big East opener and while Syracuse is improved from last year, still has a long ways to go. USF has won all 4 in this series, by totals of 32, 31, 17, and 27, covering the spread in all 4. Although the offense for USF may not hit on all cylinders, I expect DE George Selvie and the Bulls defense to dominate the Cuse and possibly pull off a shut out. Greg Paulus will not have faced this kind of pressure since Ty Lawson was in his back pocket for 40 minutes on the hardwood. PICK: South Florida 20 – Syracuse 3
Auburn @ Tennessee (Under 52)
In a battle of first year SEC coaches the Tigers visit Neyland Stadium undefeated and very confident in their spread offense. Tennessee on the other hand is abysmal on offense but possibly the best defensive team in the SEC, my apologies to Florida and Alabama. With Monte Kiffin calling the shots on defense, I expect Auburn to struggle in their first road game of the year and playing against a defense that they have yet to experience. The Volunteers will play ball control offense and give RBs Hardesty and Brown time to wear down the Auburn defense. If Vols QB Jonathan Crompton does not throw too many interceptions, he shouldn’t even be given the opportunity, this game should be a slug fest. The total in the last seven matchups dating back to 1997 has only been over 50 twice, so with Auburn’s first road game going up against their toughest defense, coupled with the Volunteers’ inept offense I expect a lower scoring game than the total would indicate. Take the Under. PICK: Tennessee 23 – Auburn 21
Regular Lox
#8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami (+7)
Bob Stoops has declared Landry Jones the starter, making this his first road start and first true road game for the Sooners. Considering this I expect Oklahoma to play more conservative than normal. The Miami defense will be the best the Sooners have seen and the Canes offense the quickest and most athletic. Oklahoma needs this game to stay in the BCS picture and make the Texas game in two weeks the Game of the Year. I think the Sooners pull this out but it will be close, with Jacory Harris bouncing back from a nightmare game last week to play great in front of the home fans. RBs Graig Cooper and Javarris James will need to find holes to open up the passing game, as Oklahoma is counting on its defense until Sam Bradford comes back. PICK: Oklahoma 27 – Miami 24
Clemson (-13.5) @ Maryland
Staying in the ACC, I like Clemson’s chances to win on the road at Maryland. The visitor has won 4 straight in the series and Clemson is better than its 2-2 record would indicate, losing close games to GT and TCU, both very tough defenses. Maryland is 1-3 (losses to Cal, Middle Tennessee and Rutgers) with their only win against James Madison. The Terps also have given up over 200 yards on the ground in their 3 losses. Look for RBs CJ Spiller and Jamie Harper to run wild in the secondary and leave College Park with a big win and rumors of Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen’s job in jeopardy. PICK: Clemson 38 – Maryland 17
Arkansas (-1) vs. Texas A&M (Cowboys Stadium)
This game will be played in the new Cowboys Stadium with Jerry Jones inviting old Southwest Conference rivals to town. You know which team the owner’s box will be rooting for as Jones is an alumnus of Arkansas. Texas A&M comes into this game 3-0, but stepping up greatly in competition. Arkansas meanwhile is 1-2 with tough losses to SEC rivals Georgia and Alabama. I think the difference in this game will be Ryan Mallet, the Razorbacks QB, who had two great performances before running into the buzz saw that is Bama’s defense. Having faced tough competition two weeks in a row, I expect Arkansas will jump out to a quick start and hold on for victory in a high scoring affair. I would have liked the over (67) in this game but it has been going up every day and might be too much now. The Aggies are much improved in Mike Sherman’s second season, but this will be a tough game for their young team. And if Jerry Jones is right and God truly does look through the opening in the dome, then surely he/she will be pulling for Arkansas. Or at least Jerry hopes. PICK: Arkansas 37 – Texas A&M 33
Upset Specials
Wisconsin (+3) @ Minnesota
Michigan (+3.5) @ Michigan State
NC State (+3) @ Wake Forest
Kansas State (+2) @ Iowa State
#8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami (+7)
Players:
Oklahoma: QB Landry Jones (or Sam Bradford), RB Demarco Murray, WR Ryan Broyles
Miami: QB Jacory Harris, RB Graig Cooper, WR Aldarius Johnson
The Sooner defense has been the difference since their opening loss, shutting out back to back opponents, while Landry Jones has filled in nicely. Miami got off to a great start with wins over FSU and GT. Last week though they travelled to VT and were dominated as favorites in a game played in a downpour. I think both teams will be ready to play this one, the Sooners with a chance to erase any doubt after their loss to BYU, while Miami will be back in the sunshine of South Florida knowing that their impatient fans will forget their hot start if they don’t perform well here. With the nation jumping on the Hurricane bandwagon after their quick start and jumping off just as quickly when they crashed in Blacksburg, I think Miami will relish the underdog role again. But will they be good enough to beat a Sooners team hungry to get back in the National Title picture. This will be a very good matchup of ACC and Big 12 powers.
#4 LSU @ #18 Georgia (-3)
LSU: QB Jordan Jefferson, RBs Charles Scott and Keiland Williams, WR Brandon LaFell
Georgia: QB Joe Cox, RB Richard Samuel, WR AJ Green
LSU comes into this game ranked 4th in the country but have not looked great in any game yet. This could bode well for them as they are due for a big game or it could show that they are not as good as advertised. They struggled in wins over Washington and Vanderbilt and last week needed a goal line stand to beat Miss. St, being outgained by the Bulldogs and only a 97 yd punt return and interception return for TDs won the game. Georgia has looked good since their opening loss at Oklahoma State, beating South Carolina and Arkansas in shootouts and holding off Arizona State last week. Georgia has won 3 straight in the series, all by double digits. I expect a closer game this week with the team that is able to run the ball better getting the win. LSU especially needs to be good on the ground to take pressure off their young QB. We will know a lot more about the boys from Baton Rouge after this week and next, when Florida visits for a night game.
#7 USC @ #24 California (+4.5)
USC: QB Matt Barkley, RB Joe McKnight, FS Taylor Mays
Cal: RB Jahvid Best, CB Syd’Quan Thompson
Both teams come into this game reeling for different reasons. Cal’s season took a hit with the annihilation in Autzen last week, while USC lost their leader Stafon Johnson in a freak weight lifting accident on Monday. Who would have thought this game would almost be a must win for each of these teams in the Pac 10 race. Although two losses might win the league this year, neither wants to find out this early. Cal will be desperate to put last week behind them and get RB Best going again on his Heisman campaign. But for that to happen, QB Kevin Riley will have to play his best game to keep the defense honest. It is about time Jeff Tedford won an important game for Cal and this definitely qualifies. USC will have to find a way to ignite a slumbering offense as Matt Barkley will be healthy and ready to show that he can lead the Trojans back to Pac 10 supremacy. I expect Cal to perform much better at home than they were on the road last week, but will they be able to erase the doubt put into their minds from season after season of expectations crashing down. This will be a big test for both teams, with the loser relegated to hoping for the Las Vegas Bowl.
UCLA @ Stanford (-5)
UCLA: RB Jonathan Franklin, WR Terrence Austin, CB Alterraun Verner
Stanford: RB Toby Gerhardt, WR Chris Owusu, QB Andrew Luck
Two teams that have surprised a lot of people early in the season square off in Palo Alto. UCLA is undefeated with the big road win at Tennessee while Stanford is 3-1 and 2-0 in the Pac 10 with wins over the Washington schools. The reason to watch this game is Stanford’s rushing attack, led by Toby Gerhardt (2nd in rushing in the country) going against a strong UCLA defense that has held opponents to 39, 115 and 69 yards rushing in their three games. Look for UCLA to load up the box and let their corners go man to man with Stanford’s receivers and their freshman QB Andrew Luck. This is probably the strongest offense and overall team UCLA has faced (sorry Tennessee) while Stanford will face its toughest defense yet. This game will show a lot about both teams and both coaches as Jim Harbaugh and Rick Neuheisel look to join the Pac 10 elite. I expect a close game with the defenses dominant early. The Cardinal is capable of big plays on special teams as evidenced by 3 kickoff returns for TD by lightning fast Chris Owusu so far this year. That could be the difference between two very evenly matched teams. The home field advantage should help Stanford in a series they have not won since 2003, but the Bruins are off a bye week and will be ready to start Pac 10 play.
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
Ole Miss (-10) @ Vanderbilt
The Rebels are coming off a deflating loss at South Carolina that saw their hopes for a National Title fall flat. They also lost last year at home to Vandy, the week before their upset of Florida. So they will be motivated to recover from last week’s loss while also in a revenge setting against the Commodores. QB Jevan Snead had high hopes coming into the season but has been mediocre at best through 3 games. The key to the offense is getting Dexter McCluster the ball in the open field, something they finally started in the 4th quarter at South Carolina, but was too late to pull that game out. I expect the Rebels to bounce back nicely and put on a good show in anticipation of next week’s tilt against Alabama. PICK: Ole Miss 34 – Vanderbilt 13
South Florida (-7) @ Syracuse
The Bulls from USF showed a lot last week in their win over Florida State. In their first game after a season ending injury to star QB Matt Grothe, who is the all time Big East leader in total offense, they beat the Seminoles behind new QB BJ Daniels. This will be their Big East opener and while Syracuse is improved from last year, still has a long ways to go. USF has won all 4 in this series, by totals of 32, 31, 17, and 27, covering the spread in all 4. Although the offense for USF may not hit on all cylinders, I expect DE George Selvie and the Bulls defense to dominate the Cuse and possibly pull off a shut out. Greg Paulus will not have faced this kind of pressure since Ty Lawson was in his back pocket for 40 minutes on the hardwood. PICK: South Florida 20 – Syracuse 3
Auburn @ Tennessee (Under 52)
In a battle of first year SEC coaches the Tigers visit Neyland Stadium undefeated and very confident in their spread offense. Tennessee on the other hand is abysmal on offense but possibly the best defensive team in the SEC, my apologies to Florida and Alabama. With Monte Kiffin calling the shots on defense, I expect Auburn to struggle in their first road game of the year and playing against a defense that they have yet to experience. The Volunteers will play ball control offense and give RBs Hardesty and Brown time to wear down the Auburn defense. If Vols QB Jonathan Crompton does not throw too many interceptions, he shouldn’t even be given the opportunity, this game should be a slug fest. The total in the last seven matchups dating back to 1997 has only been over 50 twice, so with Auburn’s first road game going up against their toughest defense, coupled with the Volunteers’ inept offense I expect a lower scoring game than the total would indicate. Take the Under. PICK: Tennessee 23 – Auburn 21
Regular Lox
#8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami (+7)
Bob Stoops has declared Landry Jones the starter, making this his first road start and first true road game for the Sooners. Considering this I expect Oklahoma to play more conservative than normal. The Miami defense will be the best the Sooners have seen and the Canes offense the quickest and most athletic. Oklahoma needs this game to stay in the BCS picture and make the Texas game in two weeks the Game of the Year. I think the Sooners pull this out but it will be close, with Jacory Harris bouncing back from a nightmare game last week to play great in front of the home fans. RBs Graig Cooper and Javarris James will need to find holes to open up the passing game, as Oklahoma is counting on its defense until Sam Bradford comes back. PICK: Oklahoma 27 – Miami 24
Clemson (-13.5) @ Maryland
Staying in the ACC, I like Clemson’s chances to win on the road at Maryland. The visitor has won 4 straight in the series and Clemson is better than its 2-2 record would indicate, losing close games to GT and TCU, both very tough defenses. Maryland is 1-3 (losses to Cal, Middle Tennessee and Rutgers) with their only win against James Madison. The Terps also have given up over 200 yards on the ground in their 3 losses. Look for RBs CJ Spiller and Jamie Harper to run wild in the secondary and leave College Park with a big win and rumors of Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen’s job in jeopardy. PICK: Clemson 38 – Maryland 17
Arkansas (-1) vs. Texas A&M (Cowboys Stadium)
This game will be played in the new Cowboys Stadium with Jerry Jones inviting old Southwest Conference rivals to town. You know which team the owner’s box will be rooting for as Jones is an alumnus of Arkansas. Texas A&M comes into this game 3-0, but stepping up greatly in competition. Arkansas meanwhile is 1-2 with tough losses to SEC rivals Georgia and Alabama. I think the difference in this game will be Ryan Mallet, the Razorbacks QB, who had two great performances before running into the buzz saw that is Bama’s defense. Having faced tough competition two weeks in a row, I expect Arkansas will jump out to a quick start and hold on for victory in a high scoring affair. I would have liked the over (67) in this game but it has been going up every day and might be too much now. The Aggies are much improved in Mike Sherman’s second season, but this will be a tough game for their young team. And if Jerry Jones is right and God truly does look through the opening in the dome, then surely he/she will be pulling for Arkansas. Or at least Jerry hopes. PICK: Arkansas 37 – Texas A&M 33
Upset Specials
Wisconsin (+3) @ Minnesota
Michigan (+3.5) @ Michigan State
NC State (+3) @ Wake Forest
Kansas State (+2) @ Iowa State
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Week 4 in Review
This last Saturday is what makes college football a special and unique sport. Four Top 10 teams lost, while another barely escaped after a goal line stand. The uncertainty week in and week out and the pressure that comes with each game being do or die is unique to Fall Saturdays. The NFL is special because any team can find a way to make the playoffs and ultimately win the Super Bowl, as the Giants proved as the lowest seeded team in the NFC beating the 18-0 Patriots. But in college football a team can’t afford to go on a losing streak or in some cases slip up for even a game. It is the only sport where each week can break your season and second chances are few.
After a Saturday like this it is a good time to look at what is right and wrong with the college football postseason and debunk the theory that we need a playoff to crown a champion. So instead of recapping some of the best games of the week and there were plenty to cover, I will make a case for the system currently in place, with a few tweaks that have been discussed before.
Playoff Or Bowl Games…You Can’t Have Both
The idea has circulated for a long time now, a college football tournament similar to March Madness where anybody has a shot to be crowned champion. Sports Illustrated even started a weekly look at a hypothetical 16 team playoff in its issue this week. Many more websites, magazines and “experts” have called for this playoff in the past and many will in the future. But the problem with all these suggestions is this: College Football as we know it would be ruined. How many people would truly care or bother to celebrate Washington’s tremendous upset of USC, or Iowa going to Happy Valley and knocking off Penn State? Would BYU’s upset of Oklahoma even made news outside of Provo? None of this would matter if a 16-team or even 8-team playoff was implemented in college football as all these teams would get a second chance and those losses would be forgotten by the following week. Some of the best games over the past decade would not have had the championship implications while the drama and enthusiasm would be sucked out of each Saturday in fall.
Think about the SEC championship last year. Undefeated Alabama and one loss Florida were matched up with a shot at the Title Game on the line. It was an emotional, hard fought, dramatic comeback victory for Florida that knocked the wind out of a great season in Tuscaloosa. But if there was a playoff following the season both teams would have already clinched a spot and they would have only been playing for seeding and pride.
Or what about the 2006 Ohio State – Michigan rivalry. Both were undefeated and #1-#2. The winner would be playing in the Title game and the loser would be relegated to hoping the voters kept them #2. A great game was played that day with Ohio State prevailing in a wild 42-39 finish. Ohio State went onto the Title game and Michigan was jumped in the polls by Florida. But the drama of 1 vs. 2 and the chance at the Title game would have been gone, because both teams would surely have qualified for a playoff that year.
Or think about USC and the Pac 10 over the past decade. Yes USC has dominated the league and won a record 7 straight conference titles, but have only played in the BCS Title Game twice thanks to a Pac 10 team pulling off an improbable upset each of the other years (Oregon State and Stanford come to mind). If a playoff existed these losses would have been virtually meaningless as USC would have been a high seeded playoff team each year with just as good a chance of winning a title. They would not have been penalized for those losses. That is the problem. The regular season would turn into college basketball’s regular season, which is to say nothing really matters until March.
The other issue with instituting a playoff would be the virtual elimination of Bowl Games. Yes they could still be played but would anyone care if #23 Illinois played #25 Arizona in the Rose Bowl. Not outside Tucson and Champaign. One of the great things about the sport as we know it is the build up all year to who goes to the Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl or any number of smaller bowls for conferences around the country. Cal has not been to a Rose Bowl since 1959, but with a playoff system their alumni would not even be rooting to make the Rose Bowl, they would be hoping to win a Pac 10 title so they could be in a playoff. Ugh.
Consider Stanford as well, their last Rose Bowl in 1999 was a special moment for the program, the alumni and fans. But what would have happened with a 16-team playoff since they were ranked 22nd at the end of the season? Would they be celebrating a shared Pac 10 title and a berth in a lower tier bowl? Would they have been chosen over a top 16 team because they won the Pac 10? Any way you look at it the playoff would not have brought the same joy and passion as making the Rose Bowl.
Also for lesser teams that have virtually no chance of winning a national championship the Bowl Games offer a reward for a great season, a chance to showcase your school and your football team to a new city and new fans. The middle of the road teams from power conferences and upper echelon teams from the small conferences have bowl games to work toward while a playoff would eliminate their chances of playing in a meaningful postseason.
Also think about Ball State or Boise State last year. These teams went undefeated in the regular season (Ball State lost in the MAC title game) and would have been rewarded with nothing. Ball State was not in the top 16 and Boise was on the edge of the BCS top 16, not guaranteeing anything.
Plus-One Format
The solution then in my mind is what has been mentioned before by BCS officials but ultimately denied: A plus-one format with the top 4 teams playing it out in BCS Bowls and the winners meeting in the Title Game. The Rose Bowl would feature #1 vs. #4 and the Fiesta Bowl #2 vs. #3 (the following year the Sugar and Orange Bowls would host). The winners then meet the following week at an alternating BCS site for the Title Game as they do now. The only thing that would change from the current format would be adding another BCS Bowl, possibly the Cotton Bowl (I can imagine Jerry Jones interest) or Holiday Bowl to keep the number of teams for the BCS at 10 and playing a semifinals and final between the top 4 teams.
All the other Bowl Games would stay the same and you would have 4 deserving teams given a chance instead of just 2. But raising that number any further to 8 or 16 would dilute the postseason, render the regular season much less meaningful and eliminate the excitement that fans all over the country have for their teams that are not in the top 16. Let’s face it, if your team loses two or more games like most #8-16 teams, they don’t deserve any chance at the Title.
The truly glaring weakness of the BCS has been picking between a #3 or 4 team that is as deserving as #2. I don’t think any team can truly argue they have deserved a shot at the Title while ranked #8 or 10 at the end of the year.
Recent History Shows it Would Work
Over the decade there were many deserving teams that were #3 or 4 that never got their chance. It was Texas last year that deserved a shot, they were #3 and had beaten #2 Oklahoma. It was undefeated Auburn that was left out in 2004 (also Utah that year was undefeated and #4). What a semifinal and final that could have been with all undefeated teams, USC – Utah and Oklahoma – Auburn, with the winners meeting the next week.
USC was left out of the BCS title game in 2003 but won the AP National Title while LSU beat Oklahoma in the BCS. The plus-one format would have featured USC and LSU a week later to crown a true champion. In 2001 Nebraska got a chance at Miami by rising to #2 in the nation after losing their final game and watching other teams lose after them, but Oregon and Colorado were both deserving of a chance and got left out. In the proposed format, Miami and Oregon would have played a week after destroying Nebraska and Colorado respectively in their bowl games. Even in 2000, Oklahoma was the only undefeated team and played one-loss Florida State in the title game. But FSU was lucky to beat out one-loss Miami and Washington that year. In 1998 it was undefeated Tennessee that beat one-loss FSU in the title, but one-loss Ohio State and Kansas State were left wondering what if it was us.
The fact is there is no easy solution to this question and the plus-one format would have years where it was unnecessary, like 2002 when there were just two undefeated teams, Miami and Ohio State, and they played an incredible overtime game. But for most of the time the BCS has been in the college football lexicon, a plus-one format of 4 finalists would have worked and crowned a true national champion; without dismantling what makes college football unique, exciting and something to endlessly discuss and argue about every Saturday in fall.
The one thing everyone can agree on is that the BCS as it is has to make changes and none is more obvious than getting rid of the Coaches Poll in their formula. It has become quite clear over the years that coaches don’t care to vote in this poll and if they do they don’t know what they are doing. Just this week the poll has undefeated Iowa below Penn State after the Hawkeyes beat PSU in Happy Valley and PSU has zero quality wins. It is absolutely atrocious that this poll counts in the BCS. Also, Cal stayed ahead of Oregon after the Ducks dismantled Cal’s season in a matter of quarters in Eugene. Again, Cal has beaten nobody ranked and Oregon’s only loss is to #5 Boise State. Explain that logic Coach.
It is time the BCS uses human polls conducted by professionals that don’t have to vote for and against their colleagues and themselves. Can you imagine the scenario at Penn State: Joe Paterno, who admits he does not even know any rankings throughout the course of a season, turns to his son and assistant coach Jay: “Son, fill out these rankings for me.” “Sure Dad, are we ahead of Iowa this week?” “Son, we’re always ahead of Iowa! And put Bowden in the top 25 too!”
Quick Thoughts On Week 4 Games
Oregon definitely crept back into the national conversation with a destruction of Cal that catapulted the teams in opposite directions. The Pac 10 looks wide open this year after USC’s loss and subsequent freak injury to their best offensive player Stafon Johnson. Many teams have legitimate hope of winning the conference at this early stage with Stanford, Arizona and Arizona State playing big games last weekend. The Cardinal dominated a Washington team off their big win, beating them by 20 and rushing at will all game. Toby Gerhardt has emerged as a top running back after rushing for 156 yards in the first half and 200 in the game. Arizona meanwhile won a close game in Corvallis and with Iowa’s win over Penn State looks like a serious threat, having played Iowa close in their only loss. Dennis Erickson took his Sun Devils team cross country to play Georgia between the hedges and almost pulled the big upset, coming up a field goal short. But they showed they are a team to be reckoned with. UCLA opens Pac 10 play this week in Stanford and USC visits Cal in a game of one-loss Pac 10 “powers.” Should be a fun year for Pac 10 football with USC seemingly the most vulnerable they have been in years.
SEC power LSU needed a goal-line stand to beat Mississippi State in a game they did not look good. Ranked #4 now they will be tested this week in Athens, Georgia and the following week vs. Florida. The team that has proven the most so far in the SEC is Alabama, as they continued their early dominance with an easy victory over Arkansas.
Parity has prevailed in the ACC once again as VT showed Miami they are still the team to beat and UNC was dominated by GT in a statement game. It looks like the conference will beat up on each other all year again, with VT still at the top of the pile for now. Look out though because VT is due for a slip up.
The Big 10 had two big games with only one of the favorites surviving. Ohio State dominated Illinois with their defense while Iowa beat Penn State and should be considered a big threat in that conference. Iowa would have to get by the next month to set up a mid-November matchup with Ohio State in Columbus that could be huge. Michigan barely survived an improving Indiana team that gets another shot at an upset this weekend vs. Ohio State. Another big development last week was Houston’s dramatic victory over Texas Tech that have Cougar fans talking BCS. With wins over two Big 12 powers and a game at Mississippi State, Houston has a chance to make waves in the BCS picture if they keep winning. Kevin Sumlin has done a tremendous job for Houston and will be a hot name in coaching circles this offseason.
Saturday Lox Week 3 in Review
Premium Lox
Week 4: 1-2
Overall: 5-10
Winners:
BYU (-17.5): 42-23
BYU cruised to an early 28-0 lead but Colorado State made bettors sweat as they got to within 11 points with a garbage TD. But after the onside kick BYU threw a TD pass on a third down and scored the points needed to cover the spread.
Losers:
Miami (-3.5): 7-31
The Hurricanes were dominated by Virginia Tech in a rain soaked game that definitely hurt Miami’s chances. Jacory Harris fumbled on the opening drive setting up a long day for Miami. Not yet over the hump the Hurricanes face Oklahoma this week in Miami. They need a bounce back game.
UNLV (-3): 27-30
Four turnovers and 3 field goals from inside the 10 yard line doomed UNLV’s chances. They fumbled three plays in and never looked back, throwing an interception in the end zone and then another in their own territory to set up Wyoming’s winning field goal. Another bad game to have money on, seems like I pick the worst games to lose.
Regular Lox
Week 4: 2-2
Overall: 6-7-1
Winners:
Florida (-22): 41-7
The Gators jumped on Kentucky early, leading 31-0 before Tebow had to leave the game with a concussion. The Gators showed their all around talent in Tebow’s absence and easily cruised to victory. Tebow seems on his way for recovery after a bye this week and LSU in Baton Rouge the week after.
Southern Miss (+13): 28-35
This was a fun game to watch as both offenses play exciting football and turnovers again were the big difference. Kansas recovered a fumble near their goal line and stopped SM on downs at the end of the half for two big turning points in their favor. If those plays go the other way Southern Miss would have left Lawrence, Kansas undefeated. But they held on for the cover so I am happy.
Losers:
Illinois (+14): 0-30
The Illini were intercepted in Ohio State territory on their first drive and then never put up a fight. A team I believe has all the offensive talent in the world has looked horrible in their big games. Time for Ron Zook to start winning with his top recruiting classes or he will be watching another coach win with his players, as Urban Meyer did at Florida.
Oregon State (-3): 32-37
Turnovers once again were the difference in this game as OSU struggled handling the ball and Arizona escaped with a big Pac 10 win. OSU outgained the Wildcats but turned it over twice and was sacked 5 times by Arizona’s defense.
Upset Specials
Week 4: 1-1 (outright upset)
Overall: 2-6 (outright upsets)
Marshall (+3) pulled the upset quite nicely over Memphis, led by sensational RB Darius Marshall. In the other upset special, Wake Forest (+3) forced OT with two fourth-quarter TD drives and held Boston College to a field goal in the first OT. But inside the 5 yard line going for the win, QB Riley Skinner was sacked and fumbled to lose the game. Another tough pill to swallow for a bettor on the money line.
After a Saturday like this it is a good time to look at what is right and wrong with the college football postseason and debunk the theory that we need a playoff to crown a champion. So instead of recapping some of the best games of the week and there were plenty to cover, I will make a case for the system currently in place, with a few tweaks that have been discussed before.
Playoff Or Bowl Games…You Can’t Have Both
The idea has circulated for a long time now, a college football tournament similar to March Madness where anybody has a shot to be crowned champion. Sports Illustrated even started a weekly look at a hypothetical 16 team playoff in its issue this week. Many more websites, magazines and “experts” have called for this playoff in the past and many will in the future. But the problem with all these suggestions is this: College Football as we know it would be ruined. How many people would truly care or bother to celebrate Washington’s tremendous upset of USC, or Iowa going to Happy Valley and knocking off Penn State? Would BYU’s upset of Oklahoma even made news outside of Provo? None of this would matter if a 16-team or even 8-team playoff was implemented in college football as all these teams would get a second chance and those losses would be forgotten by the following week. Some of the best games over the past decade would not have had the championship implications while the drama and enthusiasm would be sucked out of each Saturday in fall.
Think about the SEC championship last year. Undefeated Alabama and one loss Florida were matched up with a shot at the Title Game on the line. It was an emotional, hard fought, dramatic comeback victory for Florida that knocked the wind out of a great season in Tuscaloosa. But if there was a playoff following the season both teams would have already clinched a spot and they would have only been playing for seeding and pride.
Or what about the 2006 Ohio State – Michigan rivalry. Both were undefeated and #1-#2. The winner would be playing in the Title game and the loser would be relegated to hoping the voters kept them #2. A great game was played that day with Ohio State prevailing in a wild 42-39 finish. Ohio State went onto the Title game and Michigan was jumped in the polls by Florida. But the drama of 1 vs. 2 and the chance at the Title game would have been gone, because both teams would surely have qualified for a playoff that year.
Or think about USC and the Pac 10 over the past decade. Yes USC has dominated the league and won a record 7 straight conference titles, but have only played in the BCS Title Game twice thanks to a Pac 10 team pulling off an improbable upset each of the other years (Oregon State and Stanford come to mind). If a playoff existed these losses would have been virtually meaningless as USC would have been a high seeded playoff team each year with just as good a chance of winning a title. They would not have been penalized for those losses. That is the problem. The regular season would turn into college basketball’s regular season, which is to say nothing really matters until March.
The other issue with instituting a playoff would be the virtual elimination of Bowl Games. Yes they could still be played but would anyone care if #23 Illinois played #25 Arizona in the Rose Bowl. Not outside Tucson and Champaign. One of the great things about the sport as we know it is the build up all year to who goes to the Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl or any number of smaller bowls for conferences around the country. Cal has not been to a Rose Bowl since 1959, but with a playoff system their alumni would not even be rooting to make the Rose Bowl, they would be hoping to win a Pac 10 title so they could be in a playoff. Ugh.
Consider Stanford as well, their last Rose Bowl in 1999 was a special moment for the program, the alumni and fans. But what would have happened with a 16-team playoff since they were ranked 22nd at the end of the season? Would they be celebrating a shared Pac 10 title and a berth in a lower tier bowl? Would they have been chosen over a top 16 team because they won the Pac 10? Any way you look at it the playoff would not have brought the same joy and passion as making the Rose Bowl.
Also for lesser teams that have virtually no chance of winning a national championship the Bowl Games offer a reward for a great season, a chance to showcase your school and your football team to a new city and new fans. The middle of the road teams from power conferences and upper echelon teams from the small conferences have bowl games to work toward while a playoff would eliminate their chances of playing in a meaningful postseason.
Also think about Ball State or Boise State last year. These teams went undefeated in the regular season (Ball State lost in the MAC title game) and would have been rewarded with nothing. Ball State was not in the top 16 and Boise was on the edge of the BCS top 16, not guaranteeing anything.
Plus-One Format
The solution then in my mind is what has been mentioned before by BCS officials but ultimately denied: A plus-one format with the top 4 teams playing it out in BCS Bowls and the winners meeting in the Title Game. The Rose Bowl would feature #1 vs. #4 and the Fiesta Bowl #2 vs. #3 (the following year the Sugar and Orange Bowls would host). The winners then meet the following week at an alternating BCS site for the Title Game as they do now. The only thing that would change from the current format would be adding another BCS Bowl, possibly the Cotton Bowl (I can imagine Jerry Jones interest) or Holiday Bowl to keep the number of teams for the BCS at 10 and playing a semifinals and final between the top 4 teams.
All the other Bowl Games would stay the same and you would have 4 deserving teams given a chance instead of just 2. But raising that number any further to 8 or 16 would dilute the postseason, render the regular season much less meaningful and eliminate the excitement that fans all over the country have for their teams that are not in the top 16. Let’s face it, if your team loses two or more games like most #8-16 teams, they don’t deserve any chance at the Title.
The truly glaring weakness of the BCS has been picking between a #3 or 4 team that is as deserving as #2. I don’t think any team can truly argue they have deserved a shot at the Title while ranked #8 or 10 at the end of the year.
Recent History Shows it Would Work
Over the decade there were many deserving teams that were #3 or 4 that never got their chance. It was Texas last year that deserved a shot, they were #3 and had beaten #2 Oklahoma. It was undefeated Auburn that was left out in 2004 (also Utah that year was undefeated and #4). What a semifinal and final that could have been with all undefeated teams, USC – Utah and Oklahoma – Auburn, with the winners meeting the next week.
USC was left out of the BCS title game in 2003 but won the AP National Title while LSU beat Oklahoma in the BCS. The plus-one format would have featured USC and LSU a week later to crown a true champion. In 2001 Nebraska got a chance at Miami by rising to #2 in the nation after losing their final game and watching other teams lose after them, but Oregon and Colorado were both deserving of a chance and got left out. In the proposed format, Miami and Oregon would have played a week after destroying Nebraska and Colorado respectively in their bowl games. Even in 2000, Oklahoma was the only undefeated team and played one-loss Florida State in the title game. But FSU was lucky to beat out one-loss Miami and Washington that year. In 1998 it was undefeated Tennessee that beat one-loss FSU in the title, but one-loss Ohio State and Kansas State were left wondering what if it was us.
The fact is there is no easy solution to this question and the plus-one format would have years where it was unnecessary, like 2002 when there were just two undefeated teams, Miami and Ohio State, and they played an incredible overtime game. But for most of the time the BCS has been in the college football lexicon, a plus-one format of 4 finalists would have worked and crowned a true national champion; without dismantling what makes college football unique, exciting and something to endlessly discuss and argue about every Saturday in fall.
The one thing everyone can agree on is that the BCS as it is has to make changes and none is more obvious than getting rid of the Coaches Poll in their formula. It has become quite clear over the years that coaches don’t care to vote in this poll and if they do they don’t know what they are doing. Just this week the poll has undefeated Iowa below Penn State after the Hawkeyes beat PSU in Happy Valley and PSU has zero quality wins. It is absolutely atrocious that this poll counts in the BCS. Also, Cal stayed ahead of Oregon after the Ducks dismantled Cal’s season in a matter of quarters in Eugene. Again, Cal has beaten nobody ranked and Oregon’s only loss is to #5 Boise State. Explain that logic Coach.
It is time the BCS uses human polls conducted by professionals that don’t have to vote for and against their colleagues and themselves. Can you imagine the scenario at Penn State: Joe Paterno, who admits he does not even know any rankings throughout the course of a season, turns to his son and assistant coach Jay: “Son, fill out these rankings for me.” “Sure Dad, are we ahead of Iowa this week?” “Son, we’re always ahead of Iowa! And put Bowden in the top 25 too!”
Quick Thoughts On Week 4 Games
Oregon definitely crept back into the national conversation with a destruction of Cal that catapulted the teams in opposite directions. The Pac 10 looks wide open this year after USC’s loss and subsequent freak injury to their best offensive player Stafon Johnson. Many teams have legitimate hope of winning the conference at this early stage with Stanford, Arizona and Arizona State playing big games last weekend. The Cardinal dominated a Washington team off their big win, beating them by 20 and rushing at will all game. Toby Gerhardt has emerged as a top running back after rushing for 156 yards in the first half and 200 in the game. Arizona meanwhile won a close game in Corvallis and with Iowa’s win over Penn State looks like a serious threat, having played Iowa close in their only loss. Dennis Erickson took his Sun Devils team cross country to play Georgia between the hedges and almost pulled the big upset, coming up a field goal short. But they showed they are a team to be reckoned with. UCLA opens Pac 10 play this week in Stanford and USC visits Cal in a game of one-loss Pac 10 “powers.” Should be a fun year for Pac 10 football with USC seemingly the most vulnerable they have been in years.
SEC power LSU needed a goal-line stand to beat Mississippi State in a game they did not look good. Ranked #4 now they will be tested this week in Athens, Georgia and the following week vs. Florida. The team that has proven the most so far in the SEC is Alabama, as they continued their early dominance with an easy victory over Arkansas.
Parity has prevailed in the ACC once again as VT showed Miami they are still the team to beat and UNC was dominated by GT in a statement game. It looks like the conference will beat up on each other all year again, with VT still at the top of the pile for now. Look out though because VT is due for a slip up.
The Big 10 had two big games with only one of the favorites surviving. Ohio State dominated Illinois with their defense while Iowa beat Penn State and should be considered a big threat in that conference. Iowa would have to get by the next month to set up a mid-November matchup with Ohio State in Columbus that could be huge. Michigan barely survived an improving Indiana team that gets another shot at an upset this weekend vs. Ohio State. Another big development last week was Houston’s dramatic victory over Texas Tech that have Cougar fans talking BCS. With wins over two Big 12 powers and a game at Mississippi State, Houston has a chance to make waves in the BCS picture if they keep winning. Kevin Sumlin has done a tremendous job for Houston and will be a hot name in coaching circles this offseason.
Saturday Lox Week 3 in Review
Premium Lox
Week 4: 1-2
Overall: 5-10
Winners:
BYU (-17.5): 42-23
BYU cruised to an early 28-0 lead but Colorado State made bettors sweat as they got to within 11 points with a garbage TD. But after the onside kick BYU threw a TD pass on a third down and scored the points needed to cover the spread.
Losers:
Miami (-3.5): 7-31
The Hurricanes were dominated by Virginia Tech in a rain soaked game that definitely hurt Miami’s chances. Jacory Harris fumbled on the opening drive setting up a long day for Miami. Not yet over the hump the Hurricanes face Oklahoma this week in Miami. They need a bounce back game.
UNLV (-3): 27-30
Four turnovers and 3 field goals from inside the 10 yard line doomed UNLV’s chances. They fumbled three plays in and never looked back, throwing an interception in the end zone and then another in their own territory to set up Wyoming’s winning field goal. Another bad game to have money on, seems like I pick the worst games to lose.
Regular Lox
Week 4: 2-2
Overall: 6-7-1
Winners:
Florida (-22): 41-7
The Gators jumped on Kentucky early, leading 31-0 before Tebow had to leave the game with a concussion. The Gators showed their all around talent in Tebow’s absence and easily cruised to victory. Tebow seems on his way for recovery after a bye this week and LSU in Baton Rouge the week after.
Southern Miss (+13): 28-35
This was a fun game to watch as both offenses play exciting football and turnovers again were the big difference. Kansas recovered a fumble near their goal line and stopped SM on downs at the end of the half for two big turning points in their favor. If those plays go the other way Southern Miss would have left Lawrence, Kansas undefeated. But they held on for the cover so I am happy.
Losers:
Illinois (+14): 0-30
The Illini were intercepted in Ohio State territory on their first drive and then never put up a fight. A team I believe has all the offensive talent in the world has looked horrible in their big games. Time for Ron Zook to start winning with his top recruiting classes or he will be watching another coach win with his players, as Urban Meyer did at Florida.
Oregon State (-3): 32-37
Turnovers once again were the difference in this game as OSU struggled handling the ball and Arizona escaped with a big Pac 10 win. OSU outgained the Wildcats but turned it over twice and was sacked 5 times by Arizona’s defense.
Upset Specials
Week 4: 1-1 (outright upset)
Overall: 2-6 (outright upsets)
Marshall (+3) pulled the upset quite nicely over Memphis, led by sensational RB Darius Marshall. In the other upset special, Wake Forest (+3) forced OT with two fourth-quarter TD drives and held Boston College to a field goal in the first OT. But inside the 5 yard line going for the win, QB Riley Skinner was sacked and fumbled to lose the game. Another tough pill to swallow for a bettor on the money line.
