Week 4 College Football

Games of the Week

With the last weekend of September upon us, we will finally see most teams get their first conference games under their belt. Big matchups abound in the Big 10, ACC and Pac 10, although ESPN’s College Gameday felt Oregon’s loss to open the season meant Cal’s visit to Autzen on Saturday was not worth the drive cross country, instead they will be in Happy Valley to see the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions. Oh well, this is not the first time ESPN has short-changed the West nor will it be the last. But that does not make the game any less significant for 6th ranked Cal or Oregon. While the two teams on top of the Pac 10 for the moment Washington and Stanford, will meet in Palo Alto in as big a game for those programs as we’ve seen in a while.

#9 Miami (-3.5) @ #11 Viriginia Tech


Players:

Miami: QB Jacory Harris, RB Graig Cooper, WR Travis Benjamin, RB Javarris James

VT: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Ryan Williams, WR Jarrett Boykin

For the third time in 4 games VT will be playing against a ranked opponent, having lost to Alabama and beat Nebraska in a dramatic final minute comeback in a game they were outplayed. Now Miami visits Blacksburg trying to continue their prolific start and seize early control of the ACC Coastal. The Hurricanes have already taken care of rival Florida State and Georgia Tech and a win here would go a long way to playing in the ACC Championship game come December. Miami is top 10 ranked for the first time since 2004 and Randy Shannon deserves a lot of credit for getting a young team to perform great through 2 games. He played so many underclassmen over his first two years and struggled with inconsistency but his strategy has paid off and the Canes seem back to their vintage years when they beat teams with speed, athleticism and swagger. Jacory Harris has played fantastic in his sophomore year and if he can continue his dominance this could be the year Miami gets back in the BCS. Graig Cooper has been outstanding in the return game and as a running back, while Javarris James (Edgerrin’s cousin) has carried the ball the best of his career as a senior. Harris’ favorite target is Travis Benjamin, also just a sophomore, averaging 22 yards a catch. Virginia Tech will rely on Tyrod Taylor to make big plays, as he did on the final drive vs. Nebraska, but he struggled all game up to that point and needs to be more consistent. VT’s offense is not the same without injured RB Darren Evans. They will need to sustain drives to keep their defense off the field and would love a defensive struggle like last year when they fell to Miami 16-14. Playing in Blacksburg will be tough on Miami but they beat FSU in Tallahassee to open so they are capable of another road win. See below for my pick in the Lox of the Week.

#6 California (-6) @ Oregon

Players:

Cal: RB Jahvid Best, QB Kevin Riley, CB Syd’Quan Thompson

Oregon: QB Jeremiah Masoli, RB LaMichael James, WR Jamere Holland

This game was circled on the calendar for both teams and for the Pac 10 as a whole, but Oregon’s loss to Boise and subsequent struggles in wins over Purdue and Utah has relegated this game to second tier status around the country. With most people writing off Oregon, this could be a trap game for the Golden Bears with USC on deck in Berkeley. Oregon has been abysmal in the passing game with Masoli completing just 4-16 last week in their big win over Utah (stopped the longest winning streak in the nation, nothing to scoff at). This needs to improve for the Ducks to have a shot and Masoli will be hungry to show well against Cal after last year’s loss in a torrential downpour in Berkeley. Cal is coming off a nail biting 2 TD win in Minnesota. It looked like they had the game under control but the Gophers stormed back to tie at 21 before a big 3rd down pass by Kevin Riley set up Best’s 4th TD of the game. He would later ice the game with his 5th TD and firmly stake claim as the best RB in the country. The competition goes up this week as Cal starts Pac 10 play with dreams of Roses, but still many challenges await. The Ducks will be home underdogs for the first time since 2005 when USC visited, while Cal is just 1-6 as road favorites the last two years including 0-4 in 2007 (straight up losses to UCLA, UW and Stanford). Most observers think Cal wins this easily, but something tells me Oregon has a shot and Chip Kelly needs a statement game to ease the critics in Eugene.

Iowa @ #5 Penn State (-9)

Players:

Iowa: QB Ricky Stanzi, RB Adam Robinson, WR Trey Stross

Penn State: QB Darryl Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye

Penn State will be looking for revenge as last year their loss in Iowa City cost them a shot at the BCS Title game. Leading 23-14 in the 4th quarter they gave up a TD and then a 31 yard field goal as time expired. Penn State will surely remember that feeling and look to show the country they are indeed a top 5 team as their schedule has consisted of cup cakes thus far. Iowa is 3-0 and hungry to get back in the top 25 and the upper echelon of the Big 10. This game will be played under the lights at Beaver Stadium and a gigantic crowd will surely await these teams. The keys for PSU will be running the ball with Evan Royster, who is the top RB in the Big 10, and Darryl Clark working play action passes to open up the defense. Penn State is a mystery for now, having comfortably built a 3-0 record but this week they will need to show their hand and beat a solid Hawkeyes team if they are to earn national respect.

Illinois @ #13 Ohio State (-14)

Players:

Illinois: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, RB Jason Ford

Ohio State: QB Terrelle Pryor, RB Dan Herron, WR Dane Sanzenbacher

In the other Big 10 Game of the Week the Illini look to get on track after an embarrassing defeat week 1 to Missouri, while Ohio State attempts to keep the wins coming after a tough loss to USC two weeks ago. For Illinois, QB Williams and WR Benn should be healthy after both were injured in their first two games. With them the offense thrives, without them they are mediocre at best. Benn needs to play up to his capabilities as he is the X factor in the return game and for the offense to produce big plays. OSU on the other hand needs to establish a run game, something they did not do until last week vs. Toledo. This will be a test for both teams, as they lost their key non-conference games and now must battle it out for the Big 10. The visitor has won 8 of 9 in this series (wow) including Illinois winning 4 of 5 in Columbus (bigger wow). They knocked off the #1 Buckeyes two years ago in Columbus but were beaten in Illinois last year 30-20, though they outgained OSU by 100 yards. This series has always produced surprising games and the question will be if Illinois can continue the trend.

Saturday Lox of the Week


Premium

Miami (-3.5) @ Virginia Tech

I like the Hurricanes to continue their hot start and beat VT for the second straight year. The Canes will run over the 107th ranked VT run defense and when the safeties come up Jacory Harris will make big plays over the top. Take the Canes on the road but I would buy that half point in case it is close. PICK: Miami 27 – VT 21

Colorado State @ BYU (-17)

I’m betting on a bounce back from a BYU team that got embarrassed at home last week. They should be hungry to quiet doubters and CSU does not provide the same speed or talent for Max Hall and the BYU offense, which turned the ball over 5 times last week vs. Florida State. I’d put money on BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall taking the ball if he wins the toss unlike last week. PICK: BYU 45 – CSU 17

UNLV (-3.5) @ Wyoming

UNLV is a last second field goal away from being undefeated, while Wyoming has struggled to 1-2. Even with the travel I believe the Rebels get it done as this is Wyoming coach Dave Christensen’s first MWC game. UNLV has the talent edge and wins on the road, but again buy the half point or you might regret it. PICK: UNLV 31 – Wyoming 21

OTHER LOX

Illinois (+14) @ Ohio State

I got burned week 1 on my Illinois pick over Missouri but this game sets up well as the Illini is off a bye and should have their A game. If Arrelious Benn can make big plays and Juice Williams plays up to potential I see this being a close game. Remember the visitor has done well in this series and it would not be the first upset between these teams. PICK: Ohio State 33 – Illinois 27

Southern Miss (+14) @ Kansas

Both teams are 3-0 and face their best competition yet. Southern Miss is strong on offense with Damion Fletcher rushing for over 100 yards in each game. Kansas has not really been challenged this season but will be this game. SM goes on the road for the first time but they should be up for it as the last time they travelled to a Big 12 opponent they upset Nebraska as a 14 point underdog. This could be the same for the Jayhawks if they don’t watch out. PICK: Kansas 41 – SM 31

Arizona @ Oregon State (-3)

This line started in favor of Arizona so keep in mind people betting early will not be giving 3. I still like the Beavers as they get starting QB Lyle Moevao back and Jacquizz Rogers should be motivated to play after being injured in their narrow win last year in Tucson. Both teams are off losses and begin Pac 10 play here. I’ll take OSU as the more desperate team, with home games left against USC and Cal they need to get this win if they want to contend in an open Pac 10. PICK: Oregon State 24 – Arizona 16

Florida (-22) @ Kentucky

The Gators played a little up tight last week in a game that had more hype than a normal Tennessee game. With a win behind them and a bye next week the Gators will take out their frustration on Kentucky, which barely got by Louisville last week. Florida is rarely challenged on offense two weeks in a row and I don’t think Kentucky will be able to stop them. PICK: Florida 49 – Kentucky 17

Upset Specials

Wake Forest (+2) @ Boston College

Marshall (+3) @ Memphis

Week 3 in Review

Rewind
It was a tough week to be a top ranked team playing a conference rival as USC lost to an unranked Washington team on the road, while the others escaped with wins on their home fields, but had fights on their hands for 4 quarters. All three top teams were at least 20 point favorites by kickoff and none covered that spread, with Florida holding off Tennessee in the final period and Texas being outgained vs. Texas Tech but still managing to exact revenge on the Red Raiders. The biggest stories east and south of Seattle were the Heisman Trophy finalists from last year, Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, not playing up to expectations in the first tests of the season for both of them. With Sam Bradford going down to injury in the first week most people around the country figured Tebow and McCoy would wage a two man battle for the right to collect the hardware in December. But after lackluster performances last week the field is wide open and neither of the quarterbacks are on my early Heisman list. Let’s take a look at that and the other headlines from a week 3 that saw conference games heat up while others were soaked by rain, including 3 games delayed by hours because of lightning (in Auburn, Clemson and Las Cruces, NM).


Strike a Pose…Early Season Heisman Contenders

When an unranked team beats two ranked foes to start the season and their QB is the big reason why, he is immediately vaulted into talk of Heisman contention. Jacory Harris has led Miami to big wins and a top 10 ranking and now leads my list of the best to start the season. He played flawless in a win vs. GT and although he threw 2 ints at FSU, led the comeback to beat the Seminoles in week 1, throwing 3 TDs including two in the 4th qtr. He seems ready for tests at Virginia Tech and Oklahoma. We’ll wait and see, but Miami is back in the top 10 and has its swagger back, which for Randy Shannon is well deserved good news.

Cal is also a top 10 team that is led by one player in particular, RB Jahvid Best. His 5 TDs iced the game vs. Minnesota last week and his big game week 1 vs. Maryland is also a highlight. The best RB in the country at the moment, Best will face his toughest challenges in the weeks to come. If he is still on this list after games against Oregon and USC, I would be very impressed not only with him but his teammates. Coach Jeff Tedford has to stop subbing him in clutch situations, as Cal almost blew the game last week when Best was not on the field on critical downs (Tedford even suggested that his team does not lose anything when backup RB Vereen is on the field, showing just how egotistical he can be ). Tedford has hurt their chances in big games before, the next two weeks will tell a lot.

Staying in the Pac 10, Washington has turned its program around in 3 weeks, from going 0-12 last year to ranked #24 after their stunning upset of USC. Although most people will give credit to new coach Steve Sarkisian, he was lucky to inherit a program from Tyrone Willingham (who needs to get some credit) with a QB as talented as Jake Locker. No question the top QB in the Pac 10 through 3 games, Locker has led his team to a near upset of LSU in week 1, outgaining the Tigers, then winning back to back games, including pulling out amazing plays against USC almost single handedly. It will be tough to continue his great start but for now Locker and the Huskies are on top of the college football world. His and the Huskies first road test is this weekend.

This is a short list to start the season, with players coming and going throughout the up and down world of college football. Check back later for updates to the Heisman list and don’t be surprised if more familiar names like Tebow and McCoy appear in the not too distant future.

Gators Missing Some Bite...
Florida 23 - Tennessee 13

That sigh of relief that was heard around the world on Saturday at 6:45 ET came from Gainesville. Lane Kiffin said he was not happy with keeping the game close but nobody believed him, as he was as relieved as any coach ever to be playing for something at the end of that game. Although he was not singing Rocky Top as he promised, Florida can’t feel happy about their win in the Swamp on Saturday. Yes they quieted the Vols for another year, but their offense looked out of sync and their defense was not the dominant unit we have come to expect. Monte Kiffin can take credit for holding down Tebow and company but in a game Florida had to be prepared for they came out a little flat and never broke open the game as expected. This game will go down as a Gator win, but Tennessee has to feel good about the final score and actually playing with the more talented team on both sides of the ball.

Longhorns Lucky to Survive
Texas 34 - Texas Tech 24

Texas was outgained and had fewer first downs than Texas Tech yet still managed a comfortable 10 point win. An early punt return by Jordan Shipley gave the Longhorns a lead they would not relinquish, but Colt McCoy played underwhelming, throwing interceptions into coverage and being outplayed by Tech QB Taylor Potts, who threw for 420 yards. The Longhorns must feel fortunate to have escaped with victory and McCoy should regroup after a subpar performance, maybe concentrating more on football and less on hunting vermin out of the back of his pickup truck, which he famously said was his favorite pastime in his hometown.

Hopeless in Seattle No Longer
Washington 16 - USC 13

Most people would have been called crazy if they said UW had a chance to start 2-1 with a win over USC. Most people also would have been called crazy if they said a coffee shop could become a corporate world power. But the folks in Seattle know a good story when they see one and this UW team has taken the fairy tale and run with it (I heard Tom Hanks declined the lead role as Head Coach Sarkisian). UW trailed early 10-0 but stayed with the Trojans the rest of the way. USC though had many chances to pull away including a fumble at the UW 16, interception at the UW 20, stopped on downs at the UW 27 and not converting a TD inside the 10 late in the game. Jake Locker on the other hand made plays all day long to give his team a shot. He converted a 3rd and 17, 3rd and 11, 3rd and 16, with the latter two coming in the 4th qtr. The winning drive was 64 yards on 10 plays to set up the game winning field goal with 22 seconds left. Husky Stadium erupted with the win while USC was deflated, having lost another Pac 10 game they were favored by multiple touchdowns. USC may be 2-0 vs. Ohio State but they have lost the game after both times. They don’t look good on offense so this early loss may not cost them a chance at the title game like others have, but that remains to be seen.

 
Saturday Lox Week 3 in Review


Premium Lox

Week 3: 0-3

Overall: 4-8

Winners: None. I went with the top teams against the spread and all came out flat. Not a great week to be betting big on the best teams.

Losers:

Florida (-29): 23-13

The Gators had a chance to pull away in the 4th qtr when Tebow fumbled at the UT 8 yard line. A score there would have made it a 24 point lead with 10 minutes left and a good chance at the cover, as Tennessee was gassed on defense. As it is Tebow lost possession and UT went on a long scoring drive to make it a 10 point game. Turnovers usually make the difference and for a team giving 29 points to the opposition you can’t give anything else away. First Gator loss against the spread in a year.

Texas (-19): 34-24

Texas was never in any position to cover the spread as Tech played solid defense the whole way and Taylor Potts led the offense to a near upset. Without some special teams play from the Longhorns that put points up early, Tech outplayed them and has to feel confident with a young team moving further into the season.

BYU (-8): 28-54

This game was closer statistically than the final score would indicate but BYU was severely outclassed in Provo by a hungry Seminoles team. FSU scored TDs on their first 4 possessions after BYU deferred the opening kickoff, good move Mendenhall. BYU had 5 turnovers, including an interception to open the 2nd half that was returned for a TD, making it 37-14. There was no looking back after that as BYU’s dream season set with the sun over Provo. BYU still has several important games against TCU and Utah left, so it will be interesting to see how they react to this loss.

Regular Lox

Week 3: 2-1

Overall: 4-5-1

Winners:

Washington (+20): 16-13

The Huskies now have the biggest upset of the year under their belts and must now face great expectations. This was an undervalued team to start the year and with the win here and covering the spread week 1 vs. LSU, they have shown to be a formidable opponent. How will Vegas react to this game: UW is still TD underdogs on the road at Stanford this week.

Nebraska (+6): 15-16

Nebraska’s defense absolutely dominated Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, leading 18-11 in first downs and outgaining the Hokies. But when a team kicks 5 field goals as Nebraska did, twice unable to convert inside the 10, sometimes the game is lost. For the Huskers they have every right to blame poor officiating as they were flagged on four consecutive plays, including mystery holds, starting at the VT 5 yard line, leading them out of field goal range and taking a TD off the board in the process. But they also shot themselves in the foot with chances to put the game away. When they punted back to VT leading 15-10 with 1:40 left, their defense seemed like they would hold on for the win. But one big pass play to a receiver that got behind the safety led to an 81 yard gain down to the 3 yard line. But Nebraska sacked QB Tyrod Taylor on the next play leading to a 3rd and goal from the 11 when Taylor found a receiver in the end zone for the winning points. The Huskers were close to a huge road win over a ranked team, but came up short. DT Ndamukong Suh had a tremendous game and the Huskers under Bo Pelini should feel good moving into Big 12 action.

Losers:

Fresno State (+8): 34-51

One of the most exciting games of the week for offensive fireworks, Boise and Fresno combined for 8 plays of 60 yards or more, Fresno seemingly without safeties for much of the game. But every time Fresno got within a score and inside the spread, Boise would come back. Fresno trailed 24-3 early but behind runs of 69, 60 and 68 yards by Ryan Mathews (you would have known about him before the game if you read this blog) the Bulldogs got back in the game and had chances to take the lead. But Boise proved too much late and stopped Fresno when it counted to take a commanding 17 point lead. A great game to watch but no fun in the end if you were betting on Fresno St.

Upset Specials

Week 3: 0-1 (outright upset)

Overall: 1-5 (outright upsets)

Buffalo (+6)(+175): 17-23

Buffalo went into Orlando to take on Central Florida and led 17-7 at half with a 203-92 yard edge. But as it is with my upset picks, this was not meant to be as UCF scored 10 points to tie the game after Buffalo turnovers and then in the 4th qtr kicked two field goals to win it. Buffalo was driving to win the game but was intercepted on 4th down to ice the game. A disappointing loss for a team accustomed to winning close games.

Overall, my picks have not fared well through 3 weeks. With September coming to an end soon and conferences gearing up for big games and intense rivalries the stage is set for Saturday Lox to sink or swim. Just as USC will not give up on the season after a tough week, I will not give up on finding the best matchups and the winning spreads. So stay tuned to college football every Saturday and continue reading this site for insight into the best games or just take the opposite of my picks, that would be a winning formula so far.

Week 3 College Football

Games of the Week


Week 3 arrives in college football with intriguing conference matchups, revenge games and non conference tilts that will have implications in the BCS picture long down the road. We’ll start with everyone’s favorite loud mouth coach going into The Swamp.

Tennessee @ #1 Florida (-29)

Players:

Florida: QB Tim Tebow, RB Jeffrey Demps, CB Joe Haden, LB Brandon Spikes (and the entire defense)

Tennessee: RB Bryce Brown, S Eric Berry,

Even without all the offseason trash talking out of Knoxville and new coach Lane Kiffin, the Gators would not need much motivation in this rivalry game. With the accusations of cheating that turned out false (Kiffin had yet to read the rule book apparently) Urban Meyer will take this game personal (interesting side note is Meyer and Monte Kiffin were good friends, Meyer visiting him while Kiffin was TB Bucs’ coordinator to pick his mind about defenses. That’s why it was surprising to see Monte’s son call out Meyer and start what seems to be a losing war of words).

Remember last year, Florida was looking for revenge against Georgia after the Dawgs victory the year before and ensuing end zone celebration involving the whole team. Well, as 6 point favorites Florida jumped all over the Bulldogs and winning 49-10 late in the game, Urban called timeouts trying to extend the lead. I think Mark Richt and Georgia learned their lesson: Don’t show up the Gators unless you are ready for payback. Now it is Lane Kiffin’s turn. If last week was a preview the Vols will have a long day. They struggled all day against a decent UCLA team, QB Crompton threw 3 interceptions and the Neyland Stadium crowd was silenced in defeat. Florida on the other hand has played two overmatched foes and dominated both. Now they step up in competition and can’t wait to send a message to Knoxville and the whole country. Florida’s defense will dominate with all 11 starters back from their national championship team, including LB Spikes, DE Carlos Dunlap, CB Haden and SS Ahmad Black. This unit will be gunning for a shutout and a big statement starting off SEC play. Florida’s offense is led by QB Tebow as everyone knows, but the RB combination of Jeffrey Demps, Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody should be outstanding against an overmatched front 7. Look for big plays in the passing game from David Nelson, Riley Cooper and outstanding sophomore Deonte Thompson. This is the first test for the defending champs and Urban Meyer should have his team ready for all comers. See below for my pick.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Texas Tech @ #2 Texas (-18)

Players:

Texas: QB Colt McCoy, WR Jordan Shipley, LB Sergio Kindle, FS Blake Gideon

Texas Tech: QB Taylor Potts, WR Detron Lewis

Last year’s matchup featured one of the best games of the year as Michael Crabtree caught a Graham Harrell pass with 1 second left and ran into the end zone to set off the biggest celebration in Lubbock history. The problem for the Red Raiders is none of those three elements is in play this year. Harrell graduated, Crabtree left for the NFL (still holding out for the 1-0 49ers) and Lubbock can only watch this game on TV. The Longhorns remember well as that loss and the Big 12 tiebreaker system cost them a chance to play in the Title game. With 16 starters back, including 9 on offense, the Longhorns are out for revenge and Tech may have trouble stopping them. McCoy wants to prove he is the best QB in the nation and will have a Saturday night national audience to show it. Tech usually plays best at home and struggles on the road, especially in big games. They are also a young team with just 11 starters returning and go on the road for the first time. Look for the Longhorns to stake claim to the Big 12 after early season non-conference losses by rivals Oklahoma and OK State. The only question mark for the Horns is a young but talented secondary that will be tested by Mike Leach’s passing offense. But Texas should have plenty of offense themselves. Look for RB Vondrell McGee to run wild if Tech tries to stop McCoy from beating them. This is the Longhorns toughest opponent until they face the Sooners in October so they should be ready to put on a show.

Florida State @ #7 BYU (-7)

Players:

BYU: QB Max Hall, RB Harvey Unga, WR McKay Jacobson, TE Dennis Pitta

FSU: QB Christian Ponder, WR Taiwan Easterling, WR Bert Reed

These programs have started the season going in opposite directions. BYU upset Oklahoma (outgaining them even with Bradford healthy) and then followed up with a thrashing of Tulane. FSU played a great game vs. rival Miami but lost on the final play when QB Ponder’s throw fell through the hands of his receiver. They followed that loss with a 4th qtr comeback win against Jacksonville St., which is a good 1-AA team, but still. Now BYU heads home thinking BCS. They played without their star RB Harvey Unga the first two weeks, but he will be in uniform and with Max Hall throwing the ball all over the field BYU should feel good about their chances of knocking off two powerhouse programs in 3 weeks. Florida State has a lot to work out this week if they want to pull off the upset, but never count this team out. Ponder is looking better than ever and with speedy weapons Easterling and Reed, he has the playmakers to keep BYU on its heels. A big non conference game in September, look for Provo to be rocking and maybe even a Steve Young or Ty Detmer sighting on the sidelines. See below for my pick.

#19 Nebraska @ #13 Virginia Tech (-6)

Players:

VT: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Ryan Williams, FS Kam Chancellor

Nebraska: QB Zac Lee, RB Roy Helu, WR Niles Paul, DT Ndamukong Suh

A Boy Named Suh. Although Johnny Cash was not talking about the All American DT from Nebraska many in Lincoln are calling Ndamukong Suh the key to the return of the Blackshirts Defense, and the “Man in Black” would be proud of that. Second year coach Bo Pelini brought back the tradition of the Blackshirts and has one of the best defensive players in the nation leading the charge. Although Nebraska has yet to give up a TD in two games (FAU and Ark. St. of the Sun Belt) and has put up 49 and 45 points respectively, they face their first big test and it comes on the road in Blacksburg, VA. The Hokies lost a tough opening game to Alabama, staying close until the 4th qtr, and demolished an overmatched Marshall squad last week. Both teams are led by junior QB’s and are very similar in talent. Tech should have the edge playing at home but Nebraska will be flying high for this game after losing to the Hokies last year in Lincoln 35-30 in a comeback that fell short. The Huskers are looking for respect with a big non-conference win while Va. Tech needs this win to avoid a 1-2 start with Miami up next. The Hokies will need redshirt freshman RB Ryan Williams to keep the defense guessing or else Suh and the rest of the Blackshirts will tee off on QB Taylor, which could make for a long day. Husker QB Zac Lee will have to show the same poise he showed against lesser opponents and RB Helu will need a big game on the ground to control the clock and the game. One of only two matchups of ranked teams this week, the Hokies and the Huskers should be a great game from Blacksburg.

Lox of the Week

Two weeks into the season and it seems everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. So for week 3 I am channeling my inner Mike Singletary (even practicing the stare in my mirror at home, but not the pants down motivational speech, I still have neighbors in close proximity).

“I want winners!!”

So without further ado here are the picks for week 3

Premium Lox

The Best Bets


Florida (-29) vs. Tennessee


Everyone knows the Gators haven’t lost a game since the upset to Ole Miss last year and the famous postgame speech by Tebow. But not many people know they have covered every spread since then as well. That’s right. Favored in every game they played the Gators have won in Vegas as well as on the scoreboard. So with Tennessee visiting the Swamp it is time to hitch a ride on the Tebow Express and go all in on the Gators. I predict an all around effort by Florida that will overwhelm the Vols early and often. All in all, I believe the 63 they scored vs. Kentucky last year or the 56 vs. South Carolina is within reach. The Vols are Gator bait this week. PICK: Florida 59 – Tennessee 13

Texas (-19) vs. Texas Tech

Texas has handled Tech in Austin over the years and this year should be no different. The Longhorns will play motivated from the start and put up points at will on the Red Raider defense. Tech came to Austin in 2005 ranked #10 and abruptly lost 52-17 to Vince Young and company. Colt McCoy will try for a signature performance and the Texas defense will hold an inexperienced offense in check. PICK: Texas 45 – Texas Tech 17

BYU (-8) vs. Florida State

Max Hall will be happy to be back in Provo and he’ll give the home fans a show. Look for a close game at halftime with BYU taking control of the game from a gassed FSU team playing at altitude. Remember the Seminoles also will be playing their third game in 12 days, having played on Labor Day Monday and then last Saturday. BYU will keep the dream season going with a big win here. PICK: BYU 34 – Florida State 21

Regular Lox

USC @ Washington (+20)

Pete Carroll takes on his protégé Steve Sarkisian in the first Pac 10 game for both teams. UW looked good in a loss to LSU and in winning their first game in over a year last week vs. Idaho. USC meanwhile earned a hard fought victory in Columbus last week and now must travel north this week. Add in the injury to Matt Barkley and USC may be starting a new QB (Aaron Corp) on the road in his first college start. Also take into account the fact Sarkisian knows the USC offense as well as anyone and probably knows what color underwear Aaron Corp will be wearing. Washington has a shot not just to cover but I truly believe to pull the upset if QB Jake Locker performs the way he is capable. Also watch redshirt freshman RB Chris Polk for UW, which is a talented team that outgained LSU and is certainly capable of playing with a possibly flat Trojans team. Remember USC has been known to win the big games but lose some games they are expected to dominate. It was last year after the OSU game they went to Corvallis and lost to the Beavers. I see a close game being won by USC with a strong final quarter. PICK: USC 34 – UW 24

Nebraska (+6) @ Virginia Tech

Although most signs point to the Hokies taking care of business at home in Lane Stadium, I like Nebraska to keep this game close with a chance to win late. This game is bigger for the Huskers, a chance to show the nation that the program has recovered from the Bill Callahan era. They beat ACC power Clemson a year ago in the Gator Bowl, so they know they match up with a similar Hokies team. Va. Tech I’m sure was watching Miami beat up on GT last night and they may be looking ahead to the Hurricanes visit to Blacksburg next week, possibly the biggest ACC game of the season. If Nebraska can pressure Tyrod Taylor and control the line of scrimmage, I think they will have enough offense to cover the spread and possibly pull off the upset. PICK: Nebraska 24 – Virginia Tech 23

Fresno State (+9) vs. Boise State – Friday

Boise State has only lost two games since joining the WAC in 2001, losing at Fresno in 2005 for one of the losses. Although Boise is the more talented team Fresno has the players to hang with them, especially with the hostile crowd expected for the Friday night game. Fresno is coming off a heart breaking OT loss at Wisconsin, in a game they outplayed the Badgers. But this is the game the Bulldogs circled on their calendar, hoping to finally take back the WAC from perennial power Boise. I expect a close game and if Fresno makes enough plays offensively with RB Ryan Mathews and (say it with me now) WR Seyi Ajirotutu (Oak Ridge HS graduate for those in the Sacramento area), I think the Bulldogs could surprise the Broncos and put an end to Boise’s talk of an undefeated season. As it is I think Chris Peterson will pull this one out behind the play of QB Kellen Moore and RB Jeremy Avery. But the fans in Boise and those who travel down to the Valley will sweat this one out all 4 quarters. PICK: Boise State 31 – Fresno State 27


Upset Specials

Although I considered many games that have the possibility of an upset, including Arizona going to Iowa as 6 point underdogs and Oregon State hosting Big East power Cincinnati as 2 point underdogs, I just couldn’t pull the trigger on those games. Cincinnati has looked great, destroying a favored Rutgers team in week 1 and the only question is if the cross country travel will slow them down. Iowa looked horrible in escaping an upset vs. Northern Iowa but then beat Iowa State 35-3 last week, while UA Wildcats have won 2 home games and now must travel to a tough place to play. Those are toss ups in my book but I don’t have the confidence in either team to pick the outright upset. But there is one game that does have the makings of a money line bet:

Buffalo (+4.5) (+165) @ Central Florida

Turner Gill leads the Buffalo Bulls into Orlando. UCF has struggled both weeks while Buffalo already upset UTEP in El Paso. Although they got blown out vs. Pitt last week they still put up a lot of yards and should have no problem doing so again this week. The Bulls are a well coached, disciplined and tough football team that will not beat themselves. For those reasons I believe UCF will have a lot of problems come Saturday. Take Buffalo on the money line and laugh all the way to the bank. PICK: Buffalo 23 – UCF 21

This should be a great Saturday for any college football fan. There is plenty of intrigue all across the country and good games all day long. So make plans early to send the kids or the wife off to the movies and grab your remote control, set the Tivo and grab a cold mug of beer. It is Saturday in September and nothing is better than relaxing on the couch for 12 hours or until you have heard enough of Lou Holtz. Have a great weekend!

Week 2 In Review

Week 2 Rewind
After a tough weekend of blown leads, missed chances and backdoor covers (a bettor’s worst nightmare), you might have expected to see yours truly on the news, in a story about berating a line judge in tennis and yelling obscenities in front of a worldwide audience. Or perhaps screaming “You Lie” at a coach’s postgame news conference after a tough defeat, or worst of all grabbing the microphone at an awards ceremony from poor Taylor and telling the audience that Jennifer was the best youth soccer player of all time. But that’s just not me. One thing you can count on is graciousness in defeat from this writer and last week made me plenty gracious. But before we get to last week’s Saturday Lox, let’s take a look at the headlines (sorry for the tabloid week in review) from a week 2 that made up with dramatic finishes what it lacked in marquee matchups.


The Sweater Vest can’t escape Hollywood…
USC 18 – Ohio St 15

OSU coach Jim Tressel, known for his red sweater vest and matching conservative play calling, lost out on a big upset when QB Matt Barkley and Joe McKnight led USC on a drive for the ages. USC was outgained 138-6 in the 1st qtr, but was tied at 7 because of a Terrelle Pryor interception setting up a 1 yard TD run. The Trojans then outgained the Buckeyes 307-127 over the final 3 quarters but it was OSU that had the chance to take command on the scoreboard. But Tressel settled for a field goal when a TD would have possibly broke the Trojans back and then opted for the punt while in his kicker’s range, setting up USC’s decisive drive. Barkley converted a big 3rd and 9 from his own 15 to McKnight and two 4th and 1 plays on the drive, culminating in Stafon Johnson’s TD run with 1:05 left. McKnight, as predicted here, made big plays all night and stood out on the final drive when USC needed him most. OSU has now dropped 6 straight to top 5 teams. USC beat a Big 10 opponent for the 10th straight time. (Click link below for highlights from the decisive drive, set to music Stephen Spielberg would be proud of)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53WVU74tSVs
 
 
Charlie Wise he is not…
Michigan 38 – Notre Dame 34

In a performance that won over the hearts of Wolverines fans everywhere Tate Forcier led a Michigan comeback that has South Bend reeling. Even though the Irish played great offensively and should have done enough to win with their own comeback from down 31-20, Charlies Weis had to answer the usual post game questions about play calling, not running the ball when a first down would have won the game. Instead he ignored questions about his coaching and endeared himself to Big 10 officials and ND fans everywhere with his unofficial questioning of the calls (he didn’t want to officially anger another Big 10 crew that will work this week’s Michigan St. game). But the story and the drama went on between a ND offense led by Jimmy Clausen’s arm and Michael Floyd and Golden Tate’s receiving and the inspirational play of Forcier, who had a 31 yd TD run on 4th and 3 and then made the winning pass with 11 seconds left. The drive went 57 yards and Forcier did it all. Rich Rodriguez seems to have found his QB and seeing the embrace he gave him after the game, it looks like a big monkey was taken off coach Rod’s back. A tremendous edition of a rivalry that had gone stagnant in recent years. (See below for the final drive and ND fans cringing at another tough loss)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QizjUXKSXr4&feature=related


Still Water No Longer…

Houston 45 – Oklahoma St 35

A week after hosting the biggest game in school history and beating a tough SEC foe Georgia, the #5 ranked Cowboys had a letdown against the Cougars and were beaten in Stillwater. Mike Gundy, who until last week was famous for his “I’m a man, I’m 40” diatribe, had the state of Oklahoma all his own for one week, gobbling up the football headlines from the cross-state Sooners and readying for an undefeated run to a matchup with Texas. Instead, for two weeks in a row Cougars broke the hearts of Oklahomans everywhere (BYU Cougars last week). Led by QB Case Keenum, Houston stepped into the category of BCS buster for a week and looked every bit the part, moving the ball at will and finishing off OK State on an interception returned for TD in a wild 4th quarter. With two BCS conference teams left on its schedule (Texas Tech and Miss. St) the Cougars are dreaming of crashing the major bowls with an undefeated season. This game was a huge start.

Other Notes

The ACC avoided embarrassment last week when Florida State needed a 4th qtr comeback to beat 1-AA Jacksonville St and Maryland needed OT and a big 4th down conversion to beat James Madison. With those squeakers and favored Wake Forest getting a controversial TD with 2 seconds left in a home comeback vs. Stanford and UNC needing a safety on a holding penalty to beat UCONN on the road, the ACC survived a week that could have been a lot worse. Virginia’s home blowout loss to TCU hurt, but not as much as the Cavalier mascot falling off his horse in pregame warm-ups. Looks like Al Groh can’t even pick the correct first string mascot…

Tennessee and Lane Kiffin were not looking for the kind of performance they saw Saturday in their lead up to Florida this week. UCLA survived a defensive slugfest for the upset and head home with a lot of confidence. The Vols meanwhile can’t be feeling well losing a game like that heading to Gainesville.

Saturday Lox Week 2 in Review


Premium Lox

Week 2: 2-2

Overall: 4-5

Winners:

San Jose St (+14): 14-24

SJSU held Utah’s offense in check through 3 quarters and was tied at 7 until Utah opened it up in the final period and won by 10. A good showing by the Spartans that proves they are much improved or Utah is not nearly the team it was a year ago. Either way we’ll take the wins when we get them.

UNLV (+7): 21-23

The Rebels outplayed Oregon State most of the night and led 21-20 late in the game. A controversial pass interference call on an uncatchable ball helped the Beavers get into field goal range and hit the game winner with 7 ticks remaining. UNLV just missed out on another big Pac 10 victory and I missed out on a much needed money line victory, but covering the spread will do.

Losers:

USC (-7): 18-15

Although the Trojans got the dramatic victory in the Horse Shoe, we needed 7 points to cover. The game went as expected, but it lacked USC’s second half explosion that we have come to expect. A great game that will be remembered for a long time. Shades of when Vince Young took his team into Columbus and beat the Buckeyes on a dramatic end of game drive in 05. That game was also marked by missed chances for OSU.

Southern Mississippi (-14): 26-19

SM absolutely dominated this game and led 14-0 and 20-3 in the first half. They slowed down on offense after halftime, but still outgained UCF 409-94. They had a TD called back by penalty and fumbled a punt while up 10 leading to a UCF field goal. They scored to take a 13 point lead and went for 2 and the ATS win, but were stopped. The ensuing kickoff was returned for a TD and the final score indicating a close game. Make no mistake though Southern Miss dominated the game but could not show it on the scoreboard. A tough bet to lose.

Regular Lox

Week 2: 0-2-1

Overall: 2-4-1

Winners (Push):

LSU (-14): 23-9 PUSH

LSU did just about everything but score TD’s in this game. They outgained Vandy 326-210 and doubled the first downs, yet settling for field goals of 27, 22 and 25 yards will not satisfy fans or those in the betting community. If one of those is converted for a TD or Les Miles pulls an Urban Meyer and goes for the end-zone in the final minute of a decided game (they downed it at the Vandy 17) this game would be in the winner column and not kissing your sister. But a tie is better than a loss, in gambling at least.

Losers:

Georgia Tech (-5.5): 30-27

GT jumped on Clemson early, leading 24-0 on Thursday night while scoring on an 82 yard run, 85 yard punt return and a fake field goal pass. But Clemson showed a lot of resilience and climbed back to take the lead at one point, before succumbing to the Yellow Jackets on a field goal. GT did have a chance to score 6 for the cover but opted to play it safe even with a freshman kicker. That is why Paul Johnson is paid the big bucks, a win is a win for him, but not for me. Tough back door cover to lose but really a game that could have gone either way.

UNC (-5): 12-10

North Carolina could not get anything going offensively and needed a 4th qtr drive for a TD and a safety on a holding call in the end zone by a UCONN lineman to pull this one out. Not a pretty game for anyone but the Huskies have to feel they should have won this one. They turned it over multiple times and to lose on a safety like that at home has to leave a bad taste in their mouth. UNC got lucky to get the win and were never covering the spread.

Upset Specials

Week 2: 0-3 (outright upsets)

Overall: 1-4 (outright upsets)

Air Force (+4)(+140): 13-20

The Falcons led 10-3 going into the final quarter and were stopped on downs at the Minnesota 9, then with the game tied gave up a 52 yard fumble return for a TD. AFA had advantages of 24-14 in first downs and 386-326 yards. But the final score is what counts and the Gophers won in their first game back on campus. Losses like this lead to disorderly conduct charges in Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Washington State (+3)(+130): 20-38

The fans in Pullman didn’t have much to cheer about while Hawaii won a road game over a BCS team for the first time in 7 tries. Repeat after me: NEVER BET ON WAZZOU. I’ve learned my lesson.

Western Michigan (+2): 19-24

Western Michigan was outplayed in the first half but stayed in the game and down by 6 went on a 72 yard drive inside the Indiana 10 with under 2 minutes to play. About to score the winning TD WM fumbled the ball and the game and handed another tough loss to the Saturday Lox.

A couple fumbles recovered and a few Touchdowns instead of field goals and it would have been a great week. As it is, the bounces don’t always go your way. Next week promises to be different and if it isn’t I’ll take Kanye’s lead and go into seclusion to get my thoughts together, of course only after an appearance on the new Leno show, gotta keep it real.

Week 2 College Football

Games of the Week


Clemson @ Georgia Tech (-5.5) – Thursday

Players to Watch:

Clemson: RB CJ Spiller, WR Jacoby Ford, DE Ricky Sapp

GT: QB Josh Nesbitt, RB Jonathan Dwyer, SS Morgan Burnett

The week gets off to a quick start as the ACC plays another important conference game early. Both teams cruised last week against weak opponents and probably held back most of their offense to prepare for this one. A short week is usually a tough task going against GT’s option attack but I’m sure Clemson was preparing all summer for this game. Last year Dabo Swinney took over the week before the Yellow Jackets came to Clemson and he almost pulled the upset, losing 21-17, as GT won on a long pass with 5 minutes left. GT has two consecutive Thursday night games (Miami next week) that will go a long way in determining their season. Clemson has struggled in Atlanta, scoring just 9 and 3 points the last two games, and are just 1-8 in Thursday night ESPN games. GT meanwhile beat Miami convincingly on a Thursday night last year and Paul Johnson went 4-1 ATS as a home favorite. I expect this to be a well played game and showcase two of the upper echelon ACC teams. Clemson needs to take the pressure off their young QB Kyle Parker with Spiller and Jamie Harper running the ball and Jacoby Ford making big plays at WR. GT will put the ball and their faith in QB Nesbitt, letting him run the triple option and look to get all his playmakers involved. Dwyer is one of the best RBs in the nation, but Clemson will look to neutralize him and make the other skill players beat them. Watch out for Roddy Jones and Demaryius Thomas, they can break the big plays when the defense is looking elsewhere. This should be one of the better matchups of a slow week. See below for the pick in the Lox of the Week.

USC (-7) @ Ohio State

Players:

USC: QB Matt Barkley, RBs Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight, FS Taylor Mays

OSU: QB Terrelle Pryor, RBs Brandon Saine and Dan Herron

The only game of the week featuring ranked foes this sets up to be a test for Ohio St as a whole and for USC’s freshman QB. OSU had trouble week 1 putting away Navy, but could have taken a 22 point lead in the 4th qtr if not for being stopped on downs. So although the game was close and Navy played inspired football, OSU almost made it a blowout. USC on the other hand had a slow first qtr, trailing 3-0, then put up 56 unanswered points. USC won this game 35-3 in LA last year, in a closer game than the final would indicate, outgaining USC first half before succumbing to the Trojans in the second half. It was Pryor’s first test at QB and he played without Beanie Wells.

OSU is 47-1 at home versus non conference, only losing to Texas in 05. USC though is tremendous in big games and Pete Carroll seems to always know which QB will perform best. With Barkley behind center in his first road game look for USC to run the ball until they are stopped (and that could be awhile as OSU’s defense looked mediocre last week) and use play action to look for big plays, similar to what Navy did last week. OSU will have to control the line of scrimmage on both sides, a tough task, and let Pryor make plays with his feet and arm. Pryor is the X factor and the only way I see OSU winning this game. He needs to make great decisions, be able to throw in and out of the pocket, and he will need his WRs to step up against a talented secondary. USC lost 3 LBs in the first round of the draft and we’ll see on Saturday how well they replaced them. Any tackles they miss Taylor Mays, the best safety in the nation will be there to clean up. I have a gut feeling Joe McKnight will finally take center stage as a gamebreaking threat, a la Reggie Bush, for USC, something Trojan fans have been waiting 3 years to see. See below for the pick in the Lox of the Week.

Notre Dame (-4) @ Michigan


Players:

ND: QB Jimmy Clausen, WRs Michael Floyd, Golden Tate

Michigan: QB Tate Forcier, RB Brandon Minor, WR Greg Mathews

Both teams had great first weeks with ND shutting out a good Nevada team 35-0 and Michigan crushing W. Michigan, taking a little pressure off Rich Rodriguez after the practicegate controversy he found himself in. Michigan found their offense for the first time under Rich with Forcier running his spread option very well. Now he must do it against a better defense with more pressure than he has ever seen. Both teams feature respected new defensive coordinators, Jon Tenuta at ND and Greg Robinson at Michigan (DC in the NFL and former Cuse head coach) and this could be the deciding factor. ND’s offense looks to be excellent, with Floyd and Tate (maybe the best WR tandem in CFB) catching passes from Clausen, and Michigan seems to have found the personnel to fit the option look. This could come down to who can get stops late in the game. And although this is in the Big House, the low point spread shows many people think Michigan is back and could pull the upset. This game is too close to call in my book, but it is obvious Michigan still has the talent to win, but ND might have too many athletes and too much offense. On a side note, ND is 9-4-1 ATS as road favorites over 10 years, something to keep in mind.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

UCLA @ Tennessee (-11)

Players:

UCLA: QB Kevin Prince, WR Terrence Austin

Tenn: RBs Bryce Brown and Montario Hardesty

This game shapes up as two once proud programs trying to rise from the ashes following losing seasons. But the real intrigue is on the sidelines, as Lane Kiffin and his dad Monty (No, not Cal Worthington and his dog Spot, though he will be selling used cars at halftime) take on Rick Neuheisel (and his gambling compliance dept). Tennessee needs this win to start 2-0 while they await their rival Florida Gators, who have been using Lane Kiffin tackling dummies since spring practice. UCLA got a nice win vs. San Diego St last week and travel cross country for this one. Last year UCLA opened the season with an upset of the Vols on Labor Day, so Tennessee will be out for revenge. UCLA should be much improved in Neuheisel’s second year and if this game was in LA I might call for the upset, but Tennessee has a lot to prove and the Kiffins won’t take this game lightly. The Bruins start a redshirt freshman QB who might have trouble in front of 102,000 fans for the first time. Look for the defenses to be in control with Monte Kiffin bailing out his son to get the win. But the real action will be prior to kickoff when the coaches meet at midfield to see what is riding on the game. I heard if the Vols win, Rick has to call out Urban Meyer for recruiting violations, while if the Bruins pull the upset Lane has to call a news conference to leak the results of the USC steroids tests, Pete Carroll will not be happy. Either way it is business as usual for these coaches trying to get their name in the paper next to their bigger rivals. By the way, Kiffin is winning the battle of the better looking wife, see below.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Lox of the Week
Premium Lox – The Best Bets

USC (-7) @ Ohio State

I believe USC is the more talented team and with the recent history of OSU in big games, especially non-conference, there is nothing to make me believe they will win this (or keep it within a score). This may be a different USC team, with a young QB and short on defensive leadership, but they expect to win these games and should pull through. Look for a close game at halftime with USC too much in the second half.


Central Florida (UCF) @ Southern Mississippi (-14)

In this Conference USA battle look for SM to control this game from start to finish. UCF needed a late comeback to beat 1-AA Samford last week and SM should be one of the top teams in the conference. RB Damion Fletcher is a 2 time All Conf. performer and leads the offense while WR DeAndre Brown is a great threat on the outside. Take the Golden Eagles in this one and hope George O’Leary has as much trouble in this game as he did on his resume for Notre Dame several years ago.


Utah @ San Jose State (+14)

Utah is not the same team as last year with only 12 returning starters (5 offense), and were in a fight last week at home vs. Utah State. SJSU meanwhile was getting mopped by USC in LA. But something tells me Dick Tomey was preparing for this game, knowing they have a shot here rather than last week. Obviously Kyle Whittingham does a great job preparing Utah but with an away game in Eugene, Oregon next week, maybe just maybe SJSU sneaks up on Utah and keeps this close enough to have a chance at the upset. They played BCS schools Nebraska and Stanford tough last year and are an improved team with 15 returning starters including QB Kyle Reed and JC transfer Lamon Muldrow.


Oregon State @ UNLV (+7)

UNLV was better than their 5-7 record last year, upsetting Arizona State and coming close at BYU. They get another early Pac 10 game and will be ready. Oregon State usually starts slow and this year has just 10 starters back, meaning it could be a tough September for Mike Riley. They also have trouble in their first road game, losing their last 6 road openers, twice as favorites, including last year at Stanford. UNLV meanwhile is 3-1 all time vs. OSU and 2-1 at home vs. BCS competition. The Rebels are also 15-9 ATS as home underdogs, including 11-5 with Mike Sanford as coach. All this adds up to UNLV covering the spread and perhaps continuing the Beavers unexplained September swoons with an outright upset.


Regular Lox

The Other Bets

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (-5.5) – Thursday


The game preview above tells the story but I believe GT has the offensive weapons to beat Clemson. The QB play will be the difference and with CJ Spiller tweaking his hamstring he could be a step slower for Clemson. Take the Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech!!


Vanderbilt @ LSU (-14)

LSU had some trouble finishing off Washington in Seattle last week. But that was the farthest they have travelled to a game and this week get to sleep in their beds and wake up in the Bayou. Led by Jordan Jefferson at QB, Charles Scott at RB and WRs Brandon LaFell and Terrance Toliver the Tigers will get the offense going under the lights in Baton Rouge. Look for true freshman Russell Shepard to make his debut for LSU, the #1 rated QB in the nation, as a hybrid QB/RB. Geaux Tigers!!


North Carolina (-5) @ UCONN

I bet against UCONN last week and they pulled off the win at Ohio. But they come home here to face the Tar Heels. Butch Davis keeps putting together great recruiting classes (as he did at Miami, not so much for the Browns, but …) this UNC team should be ready to take the next step. Injuries hurt them last year but with QB TJ Yates back and the emergence of a punishing offensive line, RB Shaun Draughn will lead UNC in this one. UCONN is always well coached under Randy Edsall but the talent level this week is not nearly equal. UNC destroyed Big East teams Rutgers and this UCONN team last year. Look for the same, UNC winning by more than a TD. Roy Williams might even be proud.

Upset Specials


Air Force (+4) (+140) @ Minnesota

Minny opens its new stadium in this one, coming off an OT win at Syracuse. Air Force is 17-12 as road underdogs over 10 years. They also won their last two vs. Big 10 teams. I like the Falcons in this one with Minnesota going through all the pageantry of a new stadium while AFA has been looking to this game all summer.


Hawaii @ Washington State (+3) (+130) in Seattle

WSU is not as bad as last year and should continue to get better. They gave a good Stanford team a decent game until the 4th qtr last week. They have won 4 of 6 games played in Seattle. Hawaii meanwhile had trouble with 1-AA Central Arkansas last week and has to travel for this one. Look for the upset as the line started out as Hawaii by 7 and quickly got bet down to 3 (early in the week line changes usually means all the “professional” money is on one side).

Western Michigan (+2) @ Indiana

Although WM got blown out last week at the Big House, they are a good MAC team and upset Illinois last year and Iowa the year before. They know how to beat the Big 10 and such a small spread indicates not many people have faith in the Hoosiers.


Although Week 2 does not have a slew of great matchups, sometimes these weeks produce the most memorable and exciting games. So enjoy the weekend and with the NFL taking over Sunday and Monday be sure to get your fill of CFB on Saturday. Good Afternoon and Good Luck.

Week 1 In Review

NoooOklahoma…


The worst fear in the Sooner State was realized Saturday in Cowboy Stadium (I can’t help but think that playing in Texas after last year’s controversy with the Longhorns may have been a mistake) when Sam Bradford, reigning Heisman Trophy winner, was injured in the second quarter and could be lost for a month (or my guess is more). Oklahoma was not having it easy with Bradford, and BYU scored with 3 minutes left to take the lead and possibly start a very special season in Provo. As I said prior to the game, if BYU runs the table, including this win, a win at FSU and conference games vs. Utah and TCU, they deserve a shot at the National Title over any one-loss BCS conference team. That is a long way off, but I have heard plenty of “experts” give them no shot at that possibility. That is wrong. Period. They scheduled tough and the MWC is probably better than the Big East, and last year they had a winning record vs. the Pac 10. So please don’t listen to Lou Holtz and the talking idiots on the East Coast, they root for their employer, not good football.

 
Blue Turf not for Blount…


The Thursday night game of the week turned ugly, even if you take out the Punch heard round the world. Boise dominated the Ducks early and often, holding them to ZERO first downs by halftime. But Boise themselves looked lost on offense, squandering opportunities in the Red Zone and almost letting Oregon back in the game in the 2nd half. The final 19-8 shows both these high powered offenses have a ways to go and Chip Kelly, new head coach at Oregon needs to figure things out in a hurry. And on a final note, Boise coach Chris Peterson, who with each big win gets the attention of Athletic Directors around the country, gets knocked down a peg in my book by not disciplining the instigator of the ugly scene, Byron Hout. There is no place in sports for the deliberate taunting that was evident in the run up to Blount’s straight right jab and he should be sitting out this Saturday.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVDCoNnVbr4
 
 
AtlantaBama…


Alabama is getting awfully comfortable opening the season against ACC teams in Atlanta. With the win over VA Tech and last year’s destruction of a favored Clemson in the same building, Nick Saban and company showed they will be a force once again. New QB Greg McElroy looked good and the Tide outgained the Hokies 498-155, a dominant performance that was made closer on the scoreboard by a kickoff return for TD by Tech.

 
T. Boone Pickens meet Jerry Jones…


Is it any coincidence that on the same day of the biggest win for Oklahoma St in a long time, that Oklahoma would be upset and lose their star QB, while playing in Jerry Jones’ Palace in Dallas. I would have loved to hear a phone call between the two. Maybe T Boone would have been so happy he would have given away some wind turbines to power that behemoth of a stadium that Jerry built.

Oklahoma St though won this game behind a tough defense and some timely penalties, one negating a punt return TD by UGA and the other a horrible personal foul call on a clean hit by a UGA safety that led to the winning TD (see clip below). The referees are starting to turn CFB into 2 hand touch, with their "emphasis" on certain hard hits. But OK St did show off their weapons against a solid Defense and should have a lot of confidence moving forward. Dez Bryant may be the best WR in the country and he showed it with the catch seen in the highlight below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoX3uMsteR8&feature=related
 
 
Tears in Talahassee…


As predicted in Saturday Lox, Miami pulled the upset over the Seminoles in the Game of the Week. A game that brought back memories of classic games in this rivalry, Miami was led by sophomore Jacory Harris, who showed he is capable of being a top QB in the nation. After throwing a Pick Six to give FSU the 7 point lead in the 4th qtr, Harris led a brilliant drive with four 3rd down conversions that led to the tying TD. After a field goal by FSU, Harris scored the game winner on a fade pass to Graig Cooper, who had a tremendous game catching, running and returning kicks. FSU then led a furious drive to the Miami 5 with 19 seconds left. From there, they called 6 plays (Bobby Bowden owes the clock official a raise, he did everything in his power to give them a chance), a third down pass interference gave them the extra chances, but could not punch it in, the final pass falling through the hands of a FSU WR. Truly one of the most exciting finishes for this rivalry or any other, especially considering a field goal was not the decisive play. Although clock management and turnovers played a key role, meaning it was not necessarily well played throughout, both teams played inspired and both teams seem ready to take back the ACC.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYX5fggOiSc
 
 
The Big 10…or not…


The first Saturday of football was not good for the Big 10, but it could have been a lot worse. Ohio St needed to stop a 2 pt conversion late 4th qtr to hold off the Midshipmen. Iowa needed two blocked field goals in the final seconds to beat Northern Iowa and Minnesota needed a Greg Paulus turnover, I mean interception (I got used to saying Greg Paulus and turnover in the same sentence after four years of being the Duke PG) in OT to pull out the win over Syracuse. And Wisconsin held off a late rally by Northern Illinois. Cue a Big 10 sigh of relief. Michigan looked good behind Rich Rodriguez and his new QB’s and Purdue looked sharp with a new coach, but the worst showing of the week was my surprise team, Illinois. Ron Zook and company never recovered from losing star WR Arrelious Benn on the first drive and Missouri put the knockout punch early to the Illini, winning 37-9. The Big 10 had a bad week, but with an Ohio St win this week could make everyone forget about the close calls.

Saturday Lox Week 1 in Review

Premium Lox

Week 1: 2-3

Overall: 2-3

Winners:

Texas A&M (-15): 41-6

Miami (+6): 38-34 winner.

Losers:

Illinois (-7): 37-9 loser, playing without injured star WR the Illini offense did nothing, while Mizzou looked as good as ever without their graduated QB, WR and TE. Gary Pinkel showed a lot for his program.

UTEP (-9): 23-17 loser

Georgia (+6): 24-10 loser



Regular Lox

Week 1: 2-2

Overall: 2-2

Winners:

Navy (+23): 27-31, almost pulled the upset with two 4th qtr TD drives.

Washington (+19): 23-31, outgained LSU by over 150 yards, but could not put enough points on the board. Great opening game for the Huskies, nobody wants to go to Seattle after this game, USC visits in two weeks.

Losers:

Troy St (-7): 14-31 loser. Why am I betting on the Sun Belt Conference. Enough Said.

Colorado (-10): 17-23 loser. Boulder may be a beautiful place as I saw first hand, but betting on the Buffaloes is apparently not as pretty.



Upset Specials

Week 1: 1-1 (outright upsets)

Overall: 1-1 (outright upsets)

Baylor went into Winston Salem and beat Wake Forest to open the season, while Ohio could not get enough offense to upset UConn, although they made it close. Also Miami was an outright upset winner, which I gave you, but which is counted in the Lox above.

A bad week 1 was forgiven by the Miami win on Monday night. Going with a big money line bet (+200, double your money) here could have put us up or at least even for the week.

Week 1 College Football

Games of the Week


Oregon at Boise State (-3) – Thursday

Players to Watch:

Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli, RB LeGarrette Blount, RB LaMichael James, WR Jamere Holland

Boise St QB Kellen Moore, RB Jeremy Avery, WR Austin Pettis

Keys to the Game:

Oregon travels to the Blue Turf with a new head coach, a new offensive line and only 9 returning starters. Last year in Eugene, Boise jumped on the short handed Ducks early, essentially relegating them to their 5th string QB and held on to win 37-32. Boise feels that this is their opportunity to beat a BCS team impressively and win out on their way to a January bowl game. Chris Peterson has not lost at home in 4 years and Boise overall has lost just once at home in the decade. Look for a great opening season game with both teams knowing that this could make or break their season. I would have trouble betting against either team, but with an inexperienced Oregon travelling to the biggest sporting event in Idaho history (their words, not mine) I see Boise winning a close one as the spread indicates. Oregon does have legitimate revenge and if they can disrupt an excited Boise team and get the crowd out of the game, the Ducks can put a lot of points up in a hurry. Maybe the best pure college football game of the week (and the only one featuring a new Nike game “Guess Oregon’s uniform “, the odds are worse than the lottery ).

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

BYU vs Oklahoma (-22.5) (at the new Cowboys Stadium)
Players:

BYU QB Max Hall, RB Harvey Unga, TE Dennis Pitta

Okla. QB Sam Bradford, RB Demarco Murray, TE Jermaine Gresham

Keys:

BYU comes into the season with the hope of crashing the BCS. They have the schedule to actually play in the national title game if they go unbeaten. A win here and vs FSU later and a sweep of a good MWC would make it hard for the voters to ignore. The problem is here. BYU has the skill positions to win this game, but just one OL returns. When you play against a defense like OU you better protect your QB. Look for BYU to stay within shouting distance but ultimately the talent, speed and depth of OU to pull away. I hope BYU’s punter has practiced hitting the video board, maybe he can kill some time off the clock if this game is close.

 
 
 
 

Virginia Tech vs Alabama (-6) (at the Georgia Dome)

Players:

VT QB Tyrod Taylor,WR Jarrett Boykin, DE Jason Worilds, FS Kam Chancellor

Bama WR Julio Jones, RB Mark Ingram, DT Terrence Cody, CB Javier Arenas

Keys:

I see a low scoring game in this one. Alabama lost their senior QB and RB and are inexperienced with only 4 starters back on offense. VT lost All ACC RB Darren Evans in fall practice, a huge blow to their title aspirations. Both coaches will play close to the vest and hope their defense and special teams can win this one. Tyrod Taylor needs to mature quickly after being yanked around from redshirt to splitting time to starter and now must lead VT. They go as far as he can take them and he looked great last January in the Orange Bowl. Alabama opened last year in the Georgia Dome as TD underdogs to Clemson before demolishing Tommy Bowden’s club and setting the stage for Bama’s undefeated run to the SEC title game. This year they are the hunted. I think the over/under (38) says a lot about this matchup, not much offense but maybe scores on defense and ST, hence the defensive players to watch. Javier Areanas could be a difference maker in the return game. This should be a great game if you don’t mind tough play in the trenches and not many offensive highlights.

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Texas A&M (-14) vs New Mexico

Players:

A&M QB Jerrod Johnson, RB Cyrus Gray

Keys: Under 1st year coach Mike Sherman last year the Aggies lost to Arkansas St at home in game 1 before beating this NM team on the road in week 2, even though they were outgained. But look for the Aggies to be ready this year and jump on the Lobos under new coach Mike Locksley (OC at Illinois and FLA under Zook). NM will install a new no huddle passing attack and with only 9 starters back should run into a tough defense here. Look for the Aggies to start strong against weak competition and build confidence for the rugged Big 12 south. They have a bye week 2 so they should hold nothing back here and will want to make up for last year’s embarrassment at home.


Illinois (-6.5) vs Missouri (in St. Louis)
Players:

Illinois QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn

Keys: Illinois has lost this game two years in a row to surprising Missouri teams. But these teams are going in different directions in 09. Illinois amazingly outgained opponents by 85 yards (2nd best in Big 10) last year but finished just 3-5. So they have the talent to win this conference. Missouri on the other hand lost the most letterman and starters of any team, including all everything QB Chase Daniel, 1st round pick Jeremy Maclin and top TE Chase Coffman (Mackey Award winner). Missouri is not a program that can reload in a hurry and will suffer mightily from these graduations. The Illini have two dark horse Heisman candidates in Williams and Benn, and if the senior QB can limit turnovers and allow the talent around him to make plays Illinois will win this one easily. Look for Benn to show off his talent in the return game, scoring or setting up the Illini offense often. If this game needed more hype it got it when the Republican Senator from Missouri was heard bad mouthing Illinois football, while on break from discussing Obama’s health care plan. Not sure which topic pissed off the President more.

 
 

 

UTEP (-9) vs Buffalo

Players:

UTEP QB Trevor Vittatoe, WR Kris Adams

Keys: This game is a classic value pick. UTEP was 5-7 last year including a road loss to Buffalo 42-17. Buffalo was the surprise MAC champion, beating Ball St in a crazy conference title game. But it is 2009 and UTEP is experienced on both sides of the ball and should be ready to contend for the CUSA title this year. While Buffalo was just 8th best in the MAC last year in yardage differential, actually being outgained on average. They won last year by having +19 turnovers. Usually that stat will even out year to year. So take the undervalued UTEP Miners playing with revenge over the overvalued Bulls, who should come back down to earth, even if they do have one of the best coaches in the country, Turner Gill (Auburn remember backed out of hiring him and was chastised by famous alum Charles Barkley, but at least those Auburn fans have a coach that talks like them, even if he led the worst team in the Big 12 the last several years, Iowa St. Go War Eagle or not).


Georgia (+6) at Oklahoma St

Players:

UGA- WR AJ Green, WR Michael Moore, S Reshad Jones, LB Rennie Curran

OK ST- QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, WR Dez Bryant

Keys: This is a difficult game to handicap with OK St having the best trio of QB, RB, WR in the country, yet UGA is strong defensively and at the line of scrimmage. OK St has never been rated preseason top 10 so they find themselves in unfamiliar territory, while UGA seems to always be undervalued in odd numbered years. They weren’t supposed to be good in 07 yet won the Sugar Bowl, they were preseason #1 last year and faltered. Part of this is because they had the skill position talent last year, yet were weak on the O-line and the defense never came together. This year they are strong everywhere except where they lost QB Stafford and RB Moreno. Joe Cox steps in at QB, a senior getting his first opportunity to start (similar to 05 when DJ Shockley stepped in as a senior QB and led them to the SEC Title, odd numbered year). Mark Richt does best when expectations are low, so look out for UGA this year. Under Richt they are 30-4 in opponents’ home stadiums, including 10-2 vs top 25 (some coaches don’t win 10 games vs top 25 in their career, let alone on the road). And he is 3-0 last 4 years straight up as an underdog on the road. Hmmmm. Sounds like an upset to me. I like OK St’s talent a lot and they should be exciting all year, but this is a tough way to start what is supposed to be a magical season. With UGA holding the advantage on the line of scrimmage, take the 6 points and root for the upset. T. Boone Pickens will be sweating in the luxury box he built on this one.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Miami (+6.5) at Florida St – Monday

Players:

Miami- QB Jacory Harris, RB Graig Cooper, WR Aldarius Johnson

FSU- QB Christian Ponder, WR Bert Reed

Keys: In 2004-06 these teams opened against each other with Miami losing 2 of 3, with all low scoring games. They have split the last two years with games played midseason. The underdog has won this matchup straight up 6 of the last 7. The pressure is firmly on Randy Shannon’s Hurricanes this year, as he is just 12-13 in two seasons at the helm and finally has his recruiting classes playing a major role. They have 15 starters back from a 7-6 team that relied heavily on underclassmen. With Miami’s schedule in September (FSU, GT, VT, OKLA) they must win this game to avoid a possible 0-4 start that would have boosters calling for Shannon’s head. I see a much improved sophomore QB in Harris and a reliable running game giving Miami enough offense to beat FSU (or at least cover). But the big, fast and athletic Miami defense will be the difference. When is the last time anyone on FSU excited the country? Peter Warrick or Warrick Dunn? It seems Bowden just does not bring the talent to Talahassee anymore or lacks the innovation to compete at the highest level, and this may be Shannon’s time to stake claim to this rivalry. Being the final game of the week and played on national TV, both teams have a chance to shine but the Canes need it more. Look for another low scoring affair while the Canes cover the spread and maybe pull the upset. If you are getting greedy at the end of the weekend parlay the money line and the under 46.


OTHER LOX

Troy St (-7) at Bowling Green - Thursday

Troy St is the best team out of the Sun Belt Conf. in years. They went into Death Valley and led LSU 31-3 in the second half last year before succumbing 40-31, so they obviously have some talent and swagger. They play a MAC team for just the 2nd time ever, but should not have trouble putting points up and beating BG. This is my Thursday Lox of the Week. So while you enjoy the NC State-South Carolina game, keep an eye on the score of this one and make some money in the process.



Navy (+23) at Ohio State

With OSU’s season on the line next week vs. USC they could be caught looking ahead and won’t open up the offense like Tressel would like with his sophomore sensation Pryor. Last year the week prior to USC they trailed Ohio going into the 4th qtr as 33 pt favorites, eventually winning by 12. They also lost RB Wells last year for the USC game after Tressel played Wells in the 4th qtr of a blowout vs 1-AA Youngstown, trying to showcase his Heisman candidate. You know this won’t happen again and if OSU is up more than 14 will have their backups in. All this points to Navy at least covering the spread as they are 14-4 against the spread as road underdogs and 6-3 ATS in road openers. Take Navy and hope OSU is looking ahead and has some trouble acclimating new starters at LB, DB, RB and WR, where they lost Wells, WR’s Robiskie and Hartline, LB’s Laurinaitis and Freeman and CB Jenkins to the NFL.

LSU at Washington (+19)

The last time these two met it was UW in the top 10 and a 4-7 LSU team beat them in Baton Rouge, in 1983. Move ahead 26 years and LSU is the perennial top 10 and UW is coming off an embarrassing 0-12 campaign. I’m not going to predict an upset by any means, but I do believe the Huskies keep this one close, playing inspired football for their new coach Sarkesian and with QB Jake Locker back healthy. Remember they should have taken BYU to OT last year in week 2 if not for a horrible personal foul call on a late Locker TD that put the PAT back 15 yards, ended up missing and losing the game by 1. UW is not as bad as their record last year and with 18 returning starters and new life breathed into the program look for a closer game than Vegas thinks. LSU opens the SEC season next week vs. Vandy and might be caught looking ahead just a bit. No matter how much Les Miles tells his team to take UW seriously, these are still kids that are being asked how bad they are going to kill UW by every student in Baton Rouge.

Colorado St at Colorado (-10) - Sunday

This game is usually played on the neutral field in Denver (I guess Josh McDaniels found another way to endear himself to Colorado football fans, what more can he dismantle before coaching his first game for the Broncos) but this year they move on campus to Boulder. This has historically been a close rivalry but last year the Buffaloes won 38-17. CSU looks on the way down as a program, with their defense having a lot of work to do replacing 6 starters and a QB who has not started a road game. The Buffs want to start strong in Dan Hawkins’ 4th season and could easily be 3-0 heading into a Thursday night showdown at West Virginia. Look for Darrell Scott, just a sophomore, to run wild behind a dominating o-line and the Buffs to be partying on campus late into Sunday night, yes Sunday. And I will be partying with them as I get a first hand look at the city of Boulder, as a guest of a wedding not in the stands at Folsom Field.

Upset Specials

UCONN at Ohio (+4) (+145)

Ohio is poised to contend this year in the MAC after a 4-8 season that saw them lose 4 close games. Uconn is a bowl team from a year ago but loses first round draft pick RB Donald Brown (who could take Addai’s place in the Indy backfield), their do everything offensive weapon. Last year Uconn travelled to MAC foe Temple and barely escaped with a 12-9 OT win. With UNC and Baylor on deck Uconn might look past this game, thinking they are the Big East team who should win easily. With a senior QB and explosive playmakers in RB Donte Harden and WR Taylor Price, I will call for the upset here as Ohio is 5-1 in home openers and upset Pitt in 05.

Baylor (+3) (+110) at Wake Forest

Baylor lost this game at home last year 41-13, but grew up in the second half, going 4-1 as road underdogs against the spread, including a win over A&M. Since 2000 WF is 8-17-1 as a home favorite. This year they lose 7 starters on defense and although they return senior QB Riley Skinner will have trouble matching the last 3 years bowl teams. Baylor looks to be much stronger than years past and needs to build confidence before the Big 12 season. If they win this they could be 4-0 when they go to Norman, OK in October. Led by sophomore QB Robert Griffin and RB Jay Finley, Baylor may have the talent edge on WF and should pull the upset.

Previously mentioned possible upsets:


Georgia (+6) at Oklahoma State

Miami (+6.5) at Florida State


Thanks for reading the Saturday Lox, enjoy the weekend of games and check back next week for results and more picks. Have a great weekend!