Gator Bowl
West Virginia (-2.5) vs. Florida State
The Seminoles are here only because Bobby Bowden is coaching his last game and he wanted a game in Florida. It will mean a great deal to him that he is playing against the other school he is known for coaching is his illustrious career. But this year the Mountaineers are the better team and should handle everything Florida State can throw at them. QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine will be too much to handle for the Noles, while the WV defense has been steady all year and will be able to control the FSU offense without QB Christian Ponder. Give the points and hope the sentimental favorite Bobby Bowden does not end on a winning note. West Virginia 27 - Florida State 21
Capitol One Bowl (Citrus Bowl)
LSU (+2) vs. Penn State
The Bayou Bengals have had chances to have a great season but couldn't pull off the upset of Alabama and Les Miles threw away a win against Ole Miss. Now they find themselves in Orlando as underdogs to the Nittany Lions. But Penn State has not been impressive against good competition, losing to Ohio State and Iowa in Happy Valley in their only real big games of the year. Still, Joe Paterno got another 10 win season in what was thought to be a weak Big 10. Les Miles wins bowl games, as he is 4-0 as head coach at LSU, with the 14 point win over Ohio State in the National Championship game the lowest margin of victory. Having said that I think you would have to be crazy to think LSU does not have a great chance in this game. They will play swarming defense with a month to prepare for the Penn State attack and their offense should be good enough to put a few big plays together with WRs Brandon LaFell and Terrance Tolliver leading the way with QB Jordan Jefferson. Expect Les Miles to be charming his way through the postgame interviews and the LSU faithful to have a Happy New Year's in Orlando. LSU 24 - Penn State 16
Rose Bowl - The Grand Daddy of them All
Oregon (-3.5) vs. Ohio State
This will be both coaches first Rose Bowl, with Jim Tressell playing in his 7th BCS game. Oregon fought through tremendous adversity to get to this point and I'm sure will savor every minute of the pregame festivities and hoopla. But both teams will be ready come kickoff with conference and school pride on the line. Great matchups can be found all over the field, but none more so than the QB position. Terrelle Pryor was expected to do what Jeremiah Masoli has done this year with Oregon, that is be a dual threat QB that contends for the Heisman. If Pryor had a great year this team easily could have been undefeated, but as it is the offense sputtered in big games behind Tressell's conservative play calling and Pryor's mistakes and turnovers. For Oregon their only losses were to Boise State and Stanford on the road with both teams playing their best games. The Ducks outlasted Arizona and Oregon State to lay claim to the Pac 10 with amazing fourth quarters and are never out of a game with their quick-strike ability on offense and play-making defense. The game could come down to which style prevails, that of the conservative, defense and run-first Buckeyers, or the big play, hurry-up attack of the Ducks. Oregon was able to tire out most defenses with their quick pace and relentless style while Ohio State wore down teams with a nasty defense. It is a welcome sight to have a team other than USC representing the Pac 10 and to see the Buckeyes get a chance at the classic Rose Bowl after years of playing in other BCS games. But the Ducks have a lot to live up to after USC dominated the Rose Bowl for many years. I believe LaMichael James for Oregon, along with Masoli will be the difference as they have been all year and after a slow start they will get things rolling for the Ducks in a big second half to pull out the win and cover. Ohio State has lost three straight BCS games while Oregon has won two straight bowls and won their last trip to the BCS in the Fiesta Bowl in 2002. They have not won a Rose Bowl in decades though so the Oregon faithful will have much to cheer about on their way home from Pasadena. Oregon 33 - Ohio State 27
Sugar Bowl
Florida (-10) vs. Cincinnati
This is the Turmoil Bowl, with Cinci coach Brian Kelly watching from his new couch in South Bend and Florida wondering if Urban Meyer will be coaching next year. Both teams should have all the emotions flowing as they are led by strong senior classes with QBs Tim Tebow and Tony Pike the leaders. I think the game comes down to Florida being able to control the game on offense, with Cinci's defense being exposed the last month of the season. While the Bearcats have an explosive offense themselves, they won't have the same success against a nasty Gators defense wanting to make up for the SEC Championship debacle. Whereas last year Alabama lost the SEC and went on to get upset by Utah in the Sugar Bowl, I don't think the same thing happens to Florida with Tebow playing his final college game and the situation with Meyer. Also, Alabama was heartbroken after a tough, hard fought loss last year, while Florida was soundly beaten and should be motivated by the loss that ruined their dream season. Expect Tebow to go out on top and the Gator contingent to be partying on Bourbon Street deep into the night. Florida 48 - Cincinnati 27
Cotton Bowl - Saturday
Ole Miss (-3) vs. Oklahoma State
This should be an exciting game with both teams represented well in the first Cotton Bowl at Cowboys Stadium. The Big 12 though has lost both previous college games played in the stadium, with Oklahoma and Texas A&M losing to BYU and Arkansas respectively. This game features two QBs that lead their team and when they play poorly usually their team follows. Both teams lost their rivalry games to end their seasons and should come out motivated to end on a good note. Ole Miss upset Texas Tech in this game last year and should be happy to be back. I expect Jevan Snead to have a big game in his final showing for Ole Miss and Dexter McCluster to be involved early and often for the Rebel offense. Without many weapons it will be hard for the Cowboys to match up to a stingy Ole Miss defense. Expect a good effort by both teams with the more talented Rebels coming out on top. Ole Miss 31 - Oklahoma State 23
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
New Year's Eve Bowl Games
Sun Bowl
Stanford (+10) vs. Oklahoma
Stanford is without starting QB Andrew Luck for the game, which is one reason why the line is favoring the Sooners by double digits. Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart will have to shoulder a big load against the 7th ranked defense in the nation and for Stanford they will be happy to be back in a Bowl game for the first time since 2001. Oklahoma has to be dissappointed with the Sun Bowl after hopes of playing in the BCS for the fifth year in a row. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Sooners and even with a ton of NFL talent you have to wonder what their mindset will be on New Year's Eve morning in El Paso. We should know early whether they came to play as Stanford won't hesitate to play physical and run right at the Sooners as they have all year in the Pac 10. The game is big for Jim Harbaugh and the Cardinal, who want to represent the Pac 10 well after some embarrassing losses so far this bowl season, and to build on next year and send Gerhart out on a high note. I expect an offensive shootout with the Cardinal able to stay in the game with surprising play from QB Tavita Pritchard and Gerhart shouldering a large load on the ground. If Stanford's defense can get enough stops and avoid the long touchdowns and big plays from Landry Jones and DeMarco Murray, I believe the Cardinal has a chance at the upset. Bob Stoops has lost 4 straight Bowl games, all in the BCS, so will a step down inspire him and his team or will Stanford be too much for an unfocused Oklahoma squad? The Pac 10 has won five straight in the Sun Bowl. Watch for some early fireworks on New Year's Eve with the Sun Bowl and take the points and hope Stanford keeps it close.
Chick Fil-A Bowl (Peach Bowl)
Tennessee (+6) vs. Virginia Tech
The Volunteers should be very happy to be in this bowl in Lane Kiffin's first year and my guess is they have improved greatly in the time off. Virginia Tech is outside of the BCS for the first time in years, but should be happy with a trip to Atlanta. I believe these teams are more even than the spread indicates and with the SEC winning four straight in this bowl I think they have a good chance at the upset. Either way the game should be close with the defenses and special teams playing a big role in who wins. I like the Vols chances and will gladly take 6 points. Virginia Tech 23 - Tennessee 21
Stanford (+10) vs. Oklahoma
Stanford is without starting QB Andrew Luck for the game, which is one reason why the line is favoring the Sooners by double digits. Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart will have to shoulder a big load against the 7th ranked defense in the nation and for Stanford they will be happy to be back in a Bowl game for the first time since 2001. Oklahoma has to be dissappointed with the Sun Bowl after hopes of playing in the BCS for the fifth year in a row. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Sooners and even with a ton of NFL talent you have to wonder what their mindset will be on New Year's Eve morning in El Paso. We should know early whether they came to play as Stanford won't hesitate to play physical and run right at the Sooners as they have all year in the Pac 10. The game is big for Jim Harbaugh and the Cardinal, who want to represent the Pac 10 well after some embarrassing losses so far this bowl season, and to build on next year and send Gerhart out on a high note. I expect an offensive shootout with the Cardinal able to stay in the game with surprising play from QB Tavita Pritchard and Gerhart shouldering a large load on the ground. If Stanford's defense can get enough stops and avoid the long touchdowns and big plays from Landry Jones and DeMarco Murray, I believe the Cardinal has a chance at the upset. Bob Stoops has lost 4 straight Bowl games, all in the BCS, so will a step down inspire him and his team or will Stanford be too much for an unfocused Oklahoma squad? The Pac 10 has won five straight in the Sun Bowl. Watch for some early fireworks on New Year's Eve with the Sun Bowl and take the points and hope Stanford keeps it close.
Chick Fil-A Bowl (Peach Bowl)
Tennessee (+6) vs. Virginia Tech
The Volunteers should be very happy to be in this bowl in Lane Kiffin's first year and my guess is they have improved greatly in the time off. Virginia Tech is outside of the BCS for the first time in years, but should be happy with a trip to Atlanta. I believe these teams are more even than the spread indicates and with the SEC winning four straight in this bowl I think they have a good chance at the upset. Either way the game should be close with the defenses and special teams playing a big role in who wins. I like the Vols chances and will gladly take 6 points. Virginia Tech 23 - Tennessee 21
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Bowl Week Continues...
Champs Sports Bowl - Tuesday
Miami (-3) vs. Wisconsin
Look for Miami to be inspired by the ghosts of Canes past after the premiere of the documentary "The U" on ESPN. Playing in their home state at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando should be a nice advantage for the Hurricanes even though Wisconsin will have a nice contingent as well. The difference in the teams on the field will be the speed of the Hurricanes on offense led by Jacory Harris. Look for Miami to jump out to a lead and hold on with their defense. The Badgers should have a better showing than last year in this same bowl against Florida State, a rout that Wisconsin would like to forget. But Miami has stopped opposing runners consistently this season, which is what the Badgers would like to do with Big 10 Offensive Player of the Year John Clay. If they can't get him going it will be a long day for the the faithful from Madison. Expect a well-played game from both sides but the Canes getting the last laugh, as they often did in the days of the "U". Miami 33 - Wisconsin 24
Holiday Bowl - Wednesday
Nebraska (-1) vs. Arizona
This line is climbing as the betting public seems to like the Huskers. The Holiday Bowl always seems to be a great game, usually of the high scoring variety as it was last year when Oregon beat Oklahoma State. This year though both teams are led by their defense, with Nebraska second in the nation in points allowed. Arizona lost their defensive coordinator before the game so Mike Stoops will coach his first game without his brother Mark next to him. On the other side Nebraska should be hungry to prove on the field that they could be playing in the BCS after the last second loss to Texas. The Cornhuskers truly believe they could have won all but the Texas Tech game (losing to Virginia Tech, Iowa State and Texas were all winnable games in Bo Pelini'eyes) and they have good reason to believe they can play with any team with their defense leading the way. Ndamukong Suh will get a lot of publicity in this game after his AP Player of the Year award, a first for a defensive player and his showing in the Heisman balloting. Nebraska has said they will use two QBs in the game in a hope that the extra practice has improved an offense that was lackluster most of the season. Arizona will be a tough test with a strong running game and QB Nick Foles having a great season. I think both teams have something to prove, but in the end Nebraska and Bo Pelini have shown they can win Bowl games as he upset Clemson last year in the Gator Bowl and Michigan in 2003 as interim coach in the Alamo Bowl. Arizona beat BYU last year in Stoops' first Bowl as coach but the team didn't play in a bowl since 1998 before that. I expect a great game with Nebraska able to hold off the Wildcats in a defensive struggle with a few big plays to make in interesting. Nebraska 20 - Arizona 16
Miami (-3) vs. Wisconsin
Look for Miami to be inspired by the ghosts of Canes past after the premiere of the documentary "The U" on ESPN. Playing in their home state at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando should be a nice advantage for the Hurricanes even though Wisconsin will have a nice contingent as well. The difference in the teams on the field will be the speed of the Hurricanes on offense led by Jacory Harris. Look for Miami to jump out to a lead and hold on with their defense. The Badgers should have a better showing than last year in this same bowl against Florida State, a rout that Wisconsin would like to forget. But Miami has stopped opposing runners consistently this season, which is what the Badgers would like to do with Big 10 Offensive Player of the Year John Clay. If they can't get him going it will be a long day for the the faithful from Madison. Expect a well-played game from both sides but the Canes getting the last laugh, as they often did in the days of the "U". Miami 33 - Wisconsin 24
Holiday Bowl - Wednesday
Nebraska (-1) vs. Arizona
This line is climbing as the betting public seems to like the Huskers. The Holiday Bowl always seems to be a great game, usually of the high scoring variety as it was last year when Oregon beat Oklahoma State. This year though both teams are led by their defense, with Nebraska second in the nation in points allowed. Arizona lost their defensive coordinator before the game so Mike Stoops will coach his first game without his brother Mark next to him. On the other side Nebraska should be hungry to prove on the field that they could be playing in the BCS after the last second loss to Texas. The Cornhuskers truly believe they could have won all but the Texas Tech game (losing to Virginia Tech, Iowa State and Texas were all winnable games in Bo Pelini'eyes) and they have good reason to believe they can play with any team with their defense leading the way. Ndamukong Suh will get a lot of publicity in this game after his AP Player of the Year award, a first for a defensive player and his showing in the Heisman balloting. Nebraska has said they will use two QBs in the game in a hope that the extra practice has improved an offense that was lackluster most of the season. Arizona will be a tough test with a strong running game and QB Nick Foles having a great season. I think both teams have something to prove, but in the end Nebraska and Bo Pelini have shown they can win Bowl games as he upset Clemson last year in the Gator Bowl and Michigan in 2003 as interim coach in the Alamo Bowl. Arizona beat BYU last year in Stoops' first Bowl as coach but the team didn't play in a bowl since 1998 before that. I expect a great game with Nebraska able to hold off the Wildcats in a defensive struggle with a few big plays to make in interesting. Nebraska 20 - Arizona 16
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Las Vegas Bowl
BYU vs. Oregon State (-2.5)
Both teams come into the Las Vegas Bowl having dreamed of taking the field on New Year's Day, not three days before Christmas. It is the fifth straight year BYU fans are heading to Sin City for their Bowl game and my guess is they don't get as much out of the trip as other fans might. The Cougars have split the four previous games, losing last year 31-21 to Arizona. Meanwhile Oregon State has won five consecutive Bowl games under Coach Mike Riley and although they must be very dissappointed having had a chance to be playing in the Rose Bowl, the Beavers should still be ready to go. Led by All Pac 10 peformers RB Jazquizz Rodgers, WR James Rodgers and QB Sean Canfield, I expect the Beavers offense to heat up the Las Vegas night. The Cougars offense is also capable of putting quick points on the board, but if OSU's defense can put any pressure on QB Max Hall then the Beavers should be the last team standing. BYU has struggled in its losses to Florida State and TCU with protecting the QB and giving up big plays. OSU is capable of the big play and I expect them to get off to a quick start using the Rodgers brothers early and often. Oregon State 38 - BYU 30
Both teams come into the Las Vegas Bowl having dreamed of taking the field on New Year's Day, not three days before Christmas. It is the fifth straight year BYU fans are heading to Sin City for their Bowl game and my guess is they don't get as much out of the trip as other fans might. The Cougars have split the four previous games, losing last year 31-21 to Arizona. Meanwhile Oregon State has won five consecutive Bowl games under Coach Mike Riley and although they must be very dissappointed having had a chance to be playing in the Rose Bowl, the Beavers should still be ready to go. Led by All Pac 10 peformers RB Jazquizz Rodgers, WR James Rodgers and QB Sean Canfield, I expect the Beavers offense to heat up the Las Vegas night. The Cougars offense is also capable of putting quick points on the board, but if OSU's defense can put any pressure on QB Max Hall then the Beavers should be the last team standing. BYU has struggled in its losses to Florida State and TCU with protecting the QB and giving up big plays. OSU is capable of the big play and I expect them to get off to a quick start using the Rodgers brothers early and often. Oregon State 38 - BYU 30
Friday, December 18, 2009
Bowl Season Week 1
New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming vs. Fresno State (-10)
Fresno Coach Pat Hill received a contract extension after the regular season and should have the pressure off him and his team for the Bowl game. The Bulldogs lost this bowl game last year as favorites to Colorado State and with that in mind should come more prepared to win this year. With RB Ryan Matthews leading the way there is no doubt in my mind that Fresno State can score and run over the Cowboys, whether they can cover is another question. Wyoming is being outscored by almost 11 points this year and managed to get to 6-6 with close wins over the bad teams on their schedule. But they were 8-3 ATS, so bet against them at your own peril. Despite being overmatched they have managed to cover most of the year. Ten points is a lot to lay on a Fresno team having trouble stopping anyone, but I will give the points and hope for a rejuvenated Bulldogs team that played a tough schedule all year and now has had time to heal up and rest. Fresno State 37 - Wyoming 24
St. Petersburg Bowl
UCF (+3) vs. Rutgers
Rutgers comes into this game disappointed with not going to a more prestigious bowl game, while UCF is happy to be playing close to home, in front of family and friends and against a Big East opponent. Coach George O'Leary should have his team motivated to show they can play with the big boys as there are rumors the Big East is interested in expanding and UCF is on the radar. UCF is 9-3 ATS this season and comes into the game winning 3 in a row after losing to Texas. Rutgers had a great season going until late losses to Syracuse and West Virginia. With Rutgers' star WR questionable for the game I believe the intangibles favor UCF far too much to overlook. Look for RB Brynn Harvey to have a big game on the ground and UCF, playing with extra motivation, to pull the upset in St. Pete. UCF 30 - Rutgers 28
New Orleans Bowl
Middle Tennessee State vs Southern Mississippi (-3.5)
The Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee have been a surprise team out of the Sun Belt this year, ammassing a 9-win season and winning 6 in a row to finish. They are also 9-3 ATS while Southern Miss is 7-5 and had a disappointing finish to the season with losses to Houston and East Carolina in November. Southern Miss though has won this bowl game 3 out of the last 5 years including last year over Troy, so they won't be in awe of playing in the Superdome. I think MTSU gives them a game for 3 quarters but ultimately the Golden Eagles have more talent and should find a way to come out on top. Southern Miss 27 - MTSU 23
These three Bowl games give the holiday weekend some cheer and prepare us for a great week before Christmas with a few of the more intriguing matchups coming on Tuesday and Wednesday with MWC vs Pac 10 Bowls. Utah - Cal and Oregon State - BYU will be entertaining games and showcases for those east of the Mississippi River that don't always get to see the quality of football in these conferences. More to come on those next week but for now enjoy the weekend with the NFL gearing up for its playoffs push and the Bowl Season just getting started. After Sunday there will be 3 down and 31 to go. Playoffs? Who's talking about the playoff? I'm just trying to win a game.
Wyoming vs. Fresno State (-10)
Fresno Coach Pat Hill received a contract extension after the regular season and should have the pressure off him and his team for the Bowl game. The Bulldogs lost this bowl game last year as favorites to Colorado State and with that in mind should come more prepared to win this year. With RB Ryan Matthews leading the way there is no doubt in my mind that Fresno State can score and run over the Cowboys, whether they can cover is another question. Wyoming is being outscored by almost 11 points this year and managed to get to 6-6 with close wins over the bad teams on their schedule. But they were 8-3 ATS, so bet against them at your own peril. Despite being overmatched they have managed to cover most of the year. Ten points is a lot to lay on a Fresno team having trouble stopping anyone, but I will give the points and hope for a rejuvenated Bulldogs team that played a tough schedule all year and now has had time to heal up and rest. Fresno State 37 - Wyoming 24
St. Petersburg Bowl
UCF (+3) vs. Rutgers
Rutgers comes into this game disappointed with not going to a more prestigious bowl game, while UCF is happy to be playing close to home, in front of family and friends and against a Big East opponent. Coach George O'Leary should have his team motivated to show they can play with the big boys as there are rumors the Big East is interested in expanding and UCF is on the radar. UCF is 9-3 ATS this season and comes into the game winning 3 in a row after losing to Texas. Rutgers had a great season going until late losses to Syracuse and West Virginia. With Rutgers' star WR questionable for the game I believe the intangibles favor UCF far too much to overlook. Look for RB Brynn Harvey to have a big game on the ground and UCF, playing with extra motivation, to pull the upset in St. Pete. UCF 30 - Rutgers 28
New Orleans Bowl
Middle Tennessee State vs Southern Mississippi (-3.5)
The Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee have been a surprise team out of the Sun Belt this year, ammassing a 9-win season and winning 6 in a row to finish. They are also 9-3 ATS while Southern Miss is 7-5 and had a disappointing finish to the season with losses to Houston and East Carolina in November. Southern Miss though has won this bowl game 3 out of the last 5 years including last year over Troy, so they won't be in awe of playing in the Superdome. I think MTSU gives them a game for 3 quarters but ultimately the Golden Eagles have more talent and should find a way to come out on top. Southern Miss 27 - MTSU 23
These three Bowl games give the holiday weekend some cheer and prepare us for a great week before Christmas with a few of the more intriguing matchups coming on Tuesday and Wednesday with MWC vs Pac 10 Bowls. Utah - Cal and Oregon State - BYU will be entertaining games and showcases for those east of the Mississippi River that don't always get to see the quality of football in these conferences. More to come on those next week but for now enjoy the weekend with the NFL gearing up for its playoffs push and the Bowl Season just getting started. After Sunday there will be 3 down and 31 to go. Playoffs? Who's talking about the playoff? I'm just trying to win a game.
Friday, December 4, 2009
College Football Championship Saturday
Championship Week is a term that media members in the College Basketball world made famous with the week of basketball before Selection Sunday, with Conference Tournaments to decide champions and teams vying for the chance to continue into March Madness and the NCAA Tournament. For the College Football world the first Saturday of December and the final Saturday of the season is Championship Saturday. This season, by luck of the schedule and matchups, there is no better Saturday to be stuck on the couch to watch exciting football that will determine Conference Championships, BCS Bowls and bragging rights for the cold winter ahead.
Originally intended to crown the “Super Conferences”, those that expanded to 12 teams and two divisions so as to play a Conference Championship and receive the sponsorship money that comes with it, this week is special because not only do the ACC, SEC and Big 12 (along with the smaller brethren of super conferences, the MAC and Conference USA) hold their Championship Games, we have been lucky to enjoy de-facto Championship games in the Pac 10, Oregon beating Oregon State last night, Big East (Cincinnati – Pittsburgh on Saturday) and last week Boise State beating Nevada for the WAC Championship. While the Boise State game had great meaning nationally, as the Broncos continued their quest for the BCS, Oregon’s dramatic win last night in the Civil War in Oregon had maybe the most meaning of any sporting event in state history. The Ducks won a close, hard-fought game to win the Pac 10 for the first time since 2001 and go to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1995. The Beavers lost for the second year in a row to the Ducks with a chance for their first Rose Bowl since the Vietnam War was escalating troops as fast as Afghanistan is now. So without further ado here are the Saturday Lox for all the meaningful games on Saturday and all the storylines associated with a great final weekend of college football.
But first let’s take a moment to recap last week’s games and the final moments of Charlie Weis’ coaching career as yours truly witnessed in person.
Rivalry Week definitely lived up to the name as underdogs made the most of their chances to save their seasons with wins over favored and ranked rivals.
There was NC State beating rival UNC in a season in which nothing has gone right for the Wolf Pack as they watched the Tar Heels gain national rankings and exposure. But in this game the Wolf Pack looked like the better team and gave their fans plenty of bragging rights until basketball season at least.
Elsewhere in the Carolinas there was favorite Clemson, which has dominated in-state rival South Carolina, losing 34-17 in a game that Steve Spurrier needed to win to keep the critics off his back. As called on this page in my “Upsets” I thought Clemson might be looking ahead to the ACC Championship while South Carolina was looking at respectability and a better bowl game. The Gamecocks got both with the upset and now can breathe easier no matter what Clemson does on Saturday.
One state to the south the Battle for Georgia went to the underdog as well with the Georgia Bulldogs getting back at Tech for the upset in Athens last year. The Bulldogs needed a win to salvage their season and were playing with revenge while the Yellow Jackets were maybe looking ahead to Clemson in the ACC Championship. Either way the Bulldogs got the win with an interim mascot after their famous Bulldog “UGA” passed away before the Kentucky game the week before (http://www.ajc.com/sports/uga/a-thorough-search-will-208200.html ). Divine intervention from above or not, Georgia pulled off the upset and can now begin the quest for “UGA VIII” to represent the football team for next year. In these two rivalries at least the SEC showed their superiority over the ACC.
In an all SEC rivalry, Miss. State upset ranked and favored Ole Miss to cap a rebuilding year for first year coach Dan Mullen. Ole Miss continued its up and down season, but their fans are sure to be disappointed with several losses this year, most among them this rivalry game.
Finally in the story everyone knew was coming Charlie Weis coached his final game for Notre Dame at Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto and I was there to witness it. Despite a great game from Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate the Irish could not stop Stanford and Heisman contender Toby Gerhart in the Cardinal’s comeback, 45-38 win. This game was a microcosm of Weis’ final 3 years as the Irish couldn’t win a close game and their defense was no match for a good offense. Before the Irish get back to respectability they will need to build their team around defense as Toby Gerhart’s 205 rushing yards and four total TDs showed, including a TD pass on 4th down while trailing by 8 in the 4th quarter.
Jimmy Clausen came into the game with a black eye suffered when he was sucker-punched outside a South Bend pub after the loss to UCONN, but he left the game with a black mark on his reputation. Even though he threw for 5 TDs and had a great game it was Clausen’s nonstop jawing at the Stanford bench and showboating with the ND cheerleaders after scores that got the most attention. For a QB that went 3-9, 6-6 and now 6-6 in his three seasons at ND, Jimmy Clausen sure likes to celebrate and show up opposing teams. Chances are he will not be back for his senior season under a new head coach, and that could be a good thing for Irish fans as he is clearly not a leader as a football player and seemed to care more about his stats than the outcome of a game. One observation from sitting in the stands to watch this game is that Notre Dame fans and alumni may travel well and gobble up a majority of seats in visiting stadiums, but the fans and the players do not represent the school the way Joe Montana or Lou Holtz once did. Fans were cheering when a Stanford player was injured and the way they celebrated in the stands and on the field was amateur at best for a team that was 6-5 and going on 6-6. Golden Tate and Jimmy Clausen can high-five cheerleaders and carry the ND flag after TDs all they want, but losing to Stanford, UCONN and Navy will not make those celebrations last long. These players are maybe the only in America that could learn something from the way USC celebrates. At least wait until you win.
A great ending to a magical season on the Farm for Stanford and a fitting end to the career of Charlie Weis and hopefully for college football Jimmy Clausen. As I stood outside the stadium after the game, drinking the last of the cold drinks in the ice chest and soaking in the atmosphere of a great college football game, out walked Jim Harbaugh through the parking lot. In my excitement I quickly strode over and held out my hand to Coach Harbaugh: “Congrats on the win, Jim. A few more years on the Farm!” Without breaking stride he was happy to receive the handshake and praise and seemed to shrug off the suggestion he will leave for greener pastures. The offers will be there after a memorable season for Stanford football, but Jim might find his best opportunity is right in front of him and not in the NFL or at a college football powerhouse. Maybe all he needs to do is give former Stanford coach Tyrone Willingham a call. They can discuss Stanford’s bowl game while they are at it, Willingham was the last coach to lead Stanford to the postseason.
Saturday Lox of Championship Week
SEC Championship Game in Atlanta
Florida (-5) vs. Alabama
The top-ranked teams. Two Heisman Trophy Candidates. National Championship Invitation. The SEC once again will be the center of the college football world for an afternoon from the Georgia Dome as Florida takes on Alabama in a rematch of a classic game from a year ago. Florida may not have the same quick-strike offense as a year ago but they have surgically beaten every team on their schedule with only Arkansas making them sweat with a nail-biting finish. Alabama on the other hand started the year with impressive victories but has run into steep challenges towards the end of their undefeated regular season. Auburn looked like they might pull the upset last week but came up just short while LSU and Tennessee both played with them until the end. Both teams showcase a Heisman trophy candidate with Mark Ingram leading many ballots before his implosion last week with just 30 yards rushing and an injury. Tim Tebow does not have the stats to match last season but that is mostly because of his injury absence and a lack of explosiveness from the entire Florida offense. Both coaches also boast a National Championship or two in the decade with Urban Meyer winning two of the last three and Nick Saban claiming one for LSU in 2003. There is not much that seems to separate these two powerhouse teams. Both have highly ranked defenses with NFL talent at every position. Florida will play without their best lineman Carlos Dunlap, who was suspended after his arrest for DUI last week. The special teams for both also are dangerous with Javier Arenas for the Tide and Brandon James for the Gators. Either or both could make the difference for their team in this game.
I believe the deciding factor will be Florida’s ability to stop WR Julio Jones, who had 124 yards last year and would most likely have been the Player of the Game had the Tide won. Florida has NFL talent at CB with Joe Haden leading the way but he is undersized and the 6’4” Jones will be a handful. If Mark Ingram is healthy the Gators will be forced to bring their safeties up to stop the run and it will be up to Haden to stop Jones in single coverage. For the Gators I believe Tebow’s ability to consistently gain positive yards running the football and once successful finding the big play in the air will be the difference. Aaron Hernandez is the big target that Tebow looks to in clutch situations and this game he will be needed most. Urban Meyer will have enough tricks up his sleeve and Tim Tebow will show once again why he is the best leader in College Football. Florida will get the job done with Alabama staying close all game but not having enough in the fourth quarter. Florida 27 – Alabama 20
Big 12 Championship Game in Dallas
Nebraska (+14.5) vs. Texas
This is a rematch of the first Big 12 Championship in 1996. Nebraska came in to that game highly ranked and favored, but were beaten by 10 points in an upset that brought Priest Holmes onto the national scene (They also met in 1999, the last time Nebraska won the Big 12 Title). The roles are reversed this year with Texas assured of a chance at the National Championship game with a win and the Cornhuskers trying to gain national respect with an upset. Nebraska comes in with 3 losses but feel they could easily be 11-1 after self-inflicted losses to Iowa State (8 Turnovers) and Virginia Tech (defensive mistakes in final seconds). Texas has gone through their schedule unblemished but a closer look finds an easy road to this game with their best competition hurt by injury (Oklahoma) and suspension (Oklahoma State). The Longhorns really didn’t click on offense until after the Sooners win with Colt McCoy struggling at the beginning with turnovers, inaccuracy and bad decisions. I said it then that McCoy should not be up for the Heisman, but a month or so later and here he is the leader to many. Their big win besides the Sooner rivalry game was the thrashing of Oklahoma State, but that was tempered by the fact the Cowboys were without their two best weapons, Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. Now Texas faces possibly the best defense they will see all year. Led by the defensive line and Ndamukong Suh, the Cornhuskers are a force with Bo Pelini calling the shots. They also have a healthy offense for the first time in months with RBs Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead both playing in their win over Colorado last week.
I expect Texas to have more trouble on offense than they have in months, with McCoy throwing a few interceptions and the running game not able to get going. Jordan Shipley will be a tough matchup for the Nebraska secondary, but Texas will need more than him to make plays. Nebraska’s offense will also struggle against a stout Longhorns unit, but with Zac Lee playing confident behind center and the RBs healthy at last I think Nebraska can put up enough points to stay close and have a chance in the fourth quarter. Unlike most media members, I believe the chance at the upset is there and if Nebraska can win the turnover margin, make a few plays on special teams and control the clock with their running game, they have a chance to return to national prominence. Bo Pelini has taken back the Big 12 North this year and now wants to accomplish his ultimate goal of taking back the Big 12. The chance is there in Primetime on Saturday and nothing would be better than to ruin Texas’ shot at a Championship and end Colt McCoy’s dream of a Heisman. Nebraska 29 – Texas 28
ACC Championship Game in Tampa Bay
Georgia Tech (+1) vs. Clemson
These two teams played a great game in September with Georgia Tech prevailing at home by a field goal. Now after both teams were upset last week the Yellow Jackets find themselves as the underdog, by a point. But I like the Yellow Jackets this time even with QB Josh Nesbitt slowed by an ankle injury. The difference for GT will be the passing of Nesbitt with Clemson so focused on stopping the option running that Nesbitt is able to have a big game through the air. CJ Spiller will have a good game for Clemson in his long-shot bid for the Heisman but in the end GT will have enough for the victory. Georgia Tech 31 – Clemson 30
Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Bengals visit the Steelers in a December matchup with the Division on the line. Oops. This is college football and the two cities that are usually fighting over AFC North bragging rights in December this time will be playing for a chance at the Big East Title and the BCS. Pitt was upset in the Backyard Brawl by West Virginia last week, but still can win the Big East by handing the Bearcats their first loss. The home field will be an advantage for the Panthers and the distractions with Cinci Coach Brian Kelly being rumored to Notre Dame can’t help their preparation, but the Bearcats have one goal in mind and I believe they are the better team. QB Tony Pike will start and look for him to throw the ball all over the field as he did last week against Illinois in his return from injury. WR Mardy Gilyard will have another big game for the Bearcats as well. Pitt’s defense is good but it is not the Steel Curtain of Pittsburgh lore, while their offense is led by a freshman RB in Dion Lewis. Both will not be enough to stop the Bearcats perfect season and a second consecutive Big East title. Cincinnati 34 – Pittsburgh 31
Houston (-3.5) vs. East Carolina – Conference USA Championship
Houston comes in with the better record and the national attention after knocking off Oklahoma State and Texas Tech earlier in the year. Skip Holtz has done another tremendous job with East Carolina this season. I believe talent wins out here with Houston behind Case Keenum getting the job done over the Pirates. Houston 38 – East Carolina 31
Washington (+7) vs. California
The Huskies have improved greatly in their first year, but since the USC win in September have not played consistently enough for a bowl game. A win here though would give them a 5-7 record and wins over two ranked teams. Cal will be without Jahvid Best again and is off a huge win over rival Stanford. Kevin Riley and RB Shane Vereen played great in the upset and will now travel to Seattle after a week off for the holidays. Cal has been a mediocre road team this year while the Huskies have brought back the home-field advantage to Husky Stadium. Look for a battle of two good offenses with Cal earning a win in Seattle, but not enough to cover. California 31 – Washington 27
Originally intended to crown the “Super Conferences”, those that expanded to 12 teams and two divisions so as to play a Conference Championship and receive the sponsorship money that comes with it, this week is special because not only do the ACC, SEC and Big 12 (along with the smaller brethren of super conferences, the MAC and Conference USA) hold their Championship Games, we have been lucky to enjoy de-facto Championship games in the Pac 10, Oregon beating Oregon State last night, Big East (Cincinnati – Pittsburgh on Saturday) and last week Boise State beating Nevada for the WAC Championship. While the Boise State game had great meaning nationally, as the Broncos continued their quest for the BCS, Oregon’s dramatic win last night in the Civil War in Oregon had maybe the most meaning of any sporting event in state history. The Ducks won a close, hard-fought game to win the Pac 10 for the first time since 2001 and go to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1995. The Beavers lost for the second year in a row to the Ducks with a chance for their first Rose Bowl since the Vietnam War was escalating troops as fast as Afghanistan is now. So without further ado here are the Saturday Lox for all the meaningful games on Saturday and all the storylines associated with a great final weekend of college football.
But first let’s take a moment to recap last week’s games and the final moments of Charlie Weis’ coaching career as yours truly witnessed in person.
Rivalry Week definitely lived up to the name as underdogs made the most of their chances to save their seasons with wins over favored and ranked rivals.
There was NC State beating rival UNC in a season in which nothing has gone right for the Wolf Pack as they watched the Tar Heels gain national rankings and exposure. But in this game the Wolf Pack looked like the better team and gave their fans plenty of bragging rights until basketball season at least.
Elsewhere in the Carolinas there was favorite Clemson, which has dominated in-state rival South Carolina, losing 34-17 in a game that Steve Spurrier needed to win to keep the critics off his back. As called on this page in my “Upsets” I thought Clemson might be looking ahead to the ACC Championship while South Carolina was looking at respectability and a better bowl game. The Gamecocks got both with the upset and now can breathe easier no matter what Clemson does on Saturday.
One state to the south the Battle for Georgia went to the underdog as well with the Georgia Bulldogs getting back at Tech for the upset in Athens last year. The Bulldogs needed a win to salvage their season and were playing with revenge while the Yellow Jackets were maybe looking ahead to Clemson in the ACC Championship. Either way the Bulldogs got the win with an interim mascot after their famous Bulldog “UGA” passed away before the Kentucky game the week before (http://www.ajc.com/sports/uga/a-thorough-search-will-208200.html ). Divine intervention from above or not, Georgia pulled off the upset and can now begin the quest for “UGA VIII” to represent the football team for next year. In these two rivalries at least the SEC showed their superiority over the ACC.
In an all SEC rivalry, Miss. State upset ranked and favored Ole Miss to cap a rebuilding year for first year coach Dan Mullen. Ole Miss continued its up and down season, but their fans are sure to be disappointed with several losses this year, most among them this rivalry game.
Finally in the story everyone knew was coming Charlie Weis coached his final game for Notre Dame at Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto and I was there to witness it. Despite a great game from Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate the Irish could not stop Stanford and Heisman contender Toby Gerhart in the Cardinal’s comeback, 45-38 win. This game was a microcosm of Weis’ final 3 years as the Irish couldn’t win a close game and their defense was no match for a good offense. Before the Irish get back to respectability they will need to build their team around defense as Toby Gerhart’s 205 rushing yards and four total TDs showed, including a TD pass on 4th down while trailing by 8 in the 4th quarter.
Jimmy Clausen came into the game with a black eye suffered when he was sucker-punched outside a South Bend pub after the loss to UCONN, but he left the game with a black mark on his reputation. Even though he threw for 5 TDs and had a great game it was Clausen’s nonstop jawing at the Stanford bench and showboating with the ND cheerleaders after scores that got the most attention. For a QB that went 3-9, 6-6 and now 6-6 in his three seasons at ND, Jimmy Clausen sure likes to celebrate and show up opposing teams. Chances are he will not be back for his senior season under a new head coach, and that could be a good thing for Irish fans as he is clearly not a leader as a football player and seemed to care more about his stats than the outcome of a game. One observation from sitting in the stands to watch this game is that Notre Dame fans and alumni may travel well and gobble up a majority of seats in visiting stadiums, but the fans and the players do not represent the school the way Joe Montana or Lou Holtz once did. Fans were cheering when a Stanford player was injured and the way they celebrated in the stands and on the field was amateur at best for a team that was 6-5 and going on 6-6. Golden Tate and Jimmy Clausen can high-five cheerleaders and carry the ND flag after TDs all they want, but losing to Stanford, UCONN and Navy will not make those celebrations last long. These players are maybe the only in America that could learn something from the way USC celebrates. At least wait until you win.
A great ending to a magical season on the Farm for Stanford and a fitting end to the career of Charlie Weis and hopefully for college football Jimmy Clausen. As I stood outside the stadium after the game, drinking the last of the cold drinks in the ice chest and soaking in the atmosphere of a great college football game, out walked Jim Harbaugh through the parking lot. In my excitement I quickly strode over and held out my hand to Coach Harbaugh: “Congrats on the win, Jim. A few more years on the Farm!” Without breaking stride he was happy to receive the handshake and praise and seemed to shrug off the suggestion he will leave for greener pastures. The offers will be there after a memorable season for Stanford football, but Jim might find his best opportunity is right in front of him and not in the NFL or at a college football powerhouse. Maybe all he needs to do is give former Stanford coach Tyrone Willingham a call. They can discuss Stanford’s bowl game while they are at it, Willingham was the last coach to lead Stanford to the postseason.
Saturday Lox of Championship Week
SEC Championship Game in Atlanta
Florida (-5) vs. Alabama
The top-ranked teams. Two Heisman Trophy Candidates. National Championship Invitation. The SEC once again will be the center of the college football world for an afternoon from the Georgia Dome as Florida takes on Alabama in a rematch of a classic game from a year ago. Florida may not have the same quick-strike offense as a year ago but they have surgically beaten every team on their schedule with only Arkansas making them sweat with a nail-biting finish. Alabama on the other hand started the year with impressive victories but has run into steep challenges towards the end of their undefeated regular season. Auburn looked like they might pull the upset last week but came up just short while LSU and Tennessee both played with them until the end. Both teams showcase a Heisman trophy candidate with Mark Ingram leading many ballots before his implosion last week with just 30 yards rushing and an injury. Tim Tebow does not have the stats to match last season but that is mostly because of his injury absence and a lack of explosiveness from the entire Florida offense. Both coaches also boast a National Championship or two in the decade with Urban Meyer winning two of the last three and Nick Saban claiming one for LSU in 2003. There is not much that seems to separate these two powerhouse teams. Both have highly ranked defenses with NFL talent at every position. Florida will play without their best lineman Carlos Dunlap, who was suspended after his arrest for DUI last week. The special teams for both also are dangerous with Javier Arenas for the Tide and Brandon James for the Gators. Either or both could make the difference for their team in this game.
I believe the deciding factor will be Florida’s ability to stop WR Julio Jones, who had 124 yards last year and would most likely have been the Player of the Game had the Tide won. Florida has NFL talent at CB with Joe Haden leading the way but he is undersized and the 6’4” Jones will be a handful. If Mark Ingram is healthy the Gators will be forced to bring their safeties up to stop the run and it will be up to Haden to stop Jones in single coverage. For the Gators I believe Tebow’s ability to consistently gain positive yards running the football and once successful finding the big play in the air will be the difference. Aaron Hernandez is the big target that Tebow looks to in clutch situations and this game he will be needed most. Urban Meyer will have enough tricks up his sleeve and Tim Tebow will show once again why he is the best leader in College Football. Florida will get the job done with Alabama staying close all game but not having enough in the fourth quarter. Florida 27 – Alabama 20
Big 12 Championship Game in Dallas
Nebraska (+14.5) vs. Texas
This is a rematch of the first Big 12 Championship in 1996. Nebraska came in to that game highly ranked and favored, but were beaten by 10 points in an upset that brought Priest Holmes onto the national scene (They also met in 1999, the last time Nebraska won the Big 12 Title). The roles are reversed this year with Texas assured of a chance at the National Championship game with a win and the Cornhuskers trying to gain national respect with an upset. Nebraska comes in with 3 losses but feel they could easily be 11-1 after self-inflicted losses to Iowa State (8 Turnovers) and Virginia Tech (defensive mistakes in final seconds). Texas has gone through their schedule unblemished but a closer look finds an easy road to this game with their best competition hurt by injury (Oklahoma) and suspension (Oklahoma State). The Longhorns really didn’t click on offense until after the Sooners win with Colt McCoy struggling at the beginning with turnovers, inaccuracy and bad decisions. I said it then that McCoy should not be up for the Heisman, but a month or so later and here he is the leader to many. Their big win besides the Sooner rivalry game was the thrashing of Oklahoma State, but that was tempered by the fact the Cowboys were without their two best weapons, Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. Now Texas faces possibly the best defense they will see all year. Led by the defensive line and Ndamukong Suh, the Cornhuskers are a force with Bo Pelini calling the shots. They also have a healthy offense for the first time in months with RBs Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead both playing in their win over Colorado last week.
I expect Texas to have more trouble on offense than they have in months, with McCoy throwing a few interceptions and the running game not able to get going. Jordan Shipley will be a tough matchup for the Nebraska secondary, but Texas will need more than him to make plays. Nebraska’s offense will also struggle against a stout Longhorns unit, but with Zac Lee playing confident behind center and the RBs healthy at last I think Nebraska can put up enough points to stay close and have a chance in the fourth quarter. Unlike most media members, I believe the chance at the upset is there and if Nebraska can win the turnover margin, make a few plays on special teams and control the clock with their running game, they have a chance to return to national prominence. Bo Pelini has taken back the Big 12 North this year and now wants to accomplish his ultimate goal of taking back the Big 12. The chance is there in Primetime on Saturday and nothing would be better than to ruin Texas’ shot at a Championship and end Colt McCoy’s dream of a Heisman. Nebraska 29 – Texas 28
ACC Championship Game in Tampa Bay
Georgia Tech (+1) vs. Clemson
These two teams played a great game in September with Georgia Tech prevailing at home by a field goal. Now after both teams were upset last week the Yellow Jackets find themselves as the underdog, by a point. But I like the Yellow Jackets this time even with QB Josh Nesbitt slowed by an ankle injury. The difference for GT will be the passing of Nesbitt with Clemson so focused on stopping the option running that Nesbitt is able to have a big game through the air. CJ Spiller will have a good game for Clemson in his long-shot bid for the Heisman but in the end GT will have enough for the victory. Georgia Tech 31 – Clemson 30
Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Bengals visit the Steelers in a December matchup with the Division on the line. Oops. This is college football and the two cities that are usually fighting over AFC North bragging rights in December this time will be playing for a chance at the Big East Title and the BCS. Pitt was upset in the Backyard Brawl by West Virginia last week, but still can win the Big East by handing the Bearcats their first loss. The home field will be an advantage for the Panthers and the distractions with Cinci Coach Brian Kelly being rumored to Notre Dame can’t help their preparation, but the Bearcats have one goal in mind and I believe they are the better team. QB Tony Pike will start and look for him to throw the ball all over the field as he did last week against Illinois in his return from injury. WR Mardy Gilyard will have another big game for the Bearcats as well. Pitt’s defense is good but it is not the Steel Curtain of Pittsburgh lore, while their offense is led by a freshman RB in Dion Lewis. Both will not be enough to stop the Bearcats perfect season and a second consecutive Big East title. Cincinnati 34 – Pittsburgh 31
Houston (-3.5) vs. East Carolina – Conference USA Championship
Houston comes in with the better record and the national attention after knocking off Oklahoma State and Texas Tech earlier in the year. Skip Holtz has done another tremendous job with East Carolina this season. I believe talent wins out here with Houston behind Case Keenum getting the job done over the Pirates. Houston 38 – East Carolina 31
Washington (+7) vs. California
The Huskies have improved greatly in their first year, but since the USC win in September have not played consistently enough for a bowl game. A win here though would give them a 5-7 record and wins over two ranked teams. Cal will be without Jahvid Best again and is off a huge win over rival Stanford. Kevin Riley and RB Shane Vereen played great in the upset and will now travel to Seattle after a week off for the holidays. Cal has been a mediocre road team this year while the Huskies have brought back the home-field advantage to Husky Stadium. Look for a battle of two good offenses with Cal earning a win in Seattle, but not enough to cover. California 31 – Washington 27
Friday, November 27, 2009
College Football Week 13
After last week’s 4-2 record, the Saturday Lox has crept close to breaking even. With just two weeks left before the bowls five wins are needed to be in positive territory. It has been a tricky year of handicapping the college football world and I suspect Thanksgiving weekend will bring more of the same. There will be upsets in rivalry games and I finally believe the top 5 in the poll will be tested and one of the undefeated teams could fall. Texas took all they could handle from Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night and as I write this Auburn leads Alabama 7-0 and just recovered an onside kick early in the game. Like Auburn and Coach Gene Chizik is showing in this game rivalries bring out all the trick plays and all the gambles a coach can think of. Besides the Tide being tested, I believe Florida and Boise State will see the best effort possible from talented and tough teams. See below for my pick on Boise State – Nevada and plenty of the best games college football has to offer to go with leftover turkey and stuffing. There is no better two days to watch football than the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving. Sit back, relax, grab a cold turkey sandwich and enjoy the assortment of games with national intrigue, regional hatred, and coaches fighting to save their jobs or simply filling the required weeks before termination. Charlie Weis fits in one of those categories, only the boosters writing the checks for Touchdown Jesus know which one.
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
UCLA (+13) @ USC
The Trojans had a week off to stew over the loss to Stanford while UCLA has won 3 in a row after starting 0-5 in the Pac 10. USC has dominated this city rivalry in the last decade but UCLA did pull off the upset three years ago to ruin the Trojans’ chance at the National Championship. I think the Bruins’ defense is good enough to keep them in the game but the offense will need to score to win, unlike last week when the offense failed to score a TD but they beat ASU. I would not be surprised at the upset but will not call for it, take the points though and hope USC did not find their offense in the bye week. PICK: USC 24 – UCLA 16
Pittsburgh (Pick) @ West Virginia – Friday
“The Backyard Brawl” is as intense a rivalry that exists in the country. Pittsburgh ruined West Virginia’s National Championship hopes two years ago and led to the exit of Rich Rodriguez to Michigan. This year it is the opposite with the Mountaineers playing the spoiler against one-loss Pittsburgh which has a bigger game on deck against Cincinnati. They will not overlook their hated rivals here and even on the road I expect Dave Wannstedt to lead his team to victory. RB Dion Lewis for Pitt and Noel Devine for WV should put on a show and this could come down to which QB plays better, Bill Stull or Jarrett Brown. Pitt has won two in a row and hasn’t won 3 in a row in the series since 1982. I’ll call for them to win on the road and set up a showdown for the Big East next week. PICK: Pittsburgh 31 – West Virginia 28
Georgia @ Georgia Tech (-7.5)
Last year’s upset by Tech on the road solidified Paul Johnson as head coach and vaulted the Yellow Jackets into their one-loss season and ACC Coastal title. Tech has dominated most every opponent but needed overtime in a surprise scare by Wake Forest. Georgia has struggled against the best competition on their schedule and then last week were upset by Kentucky. After a week off I expect Tech to take down Georgia before the ACC Championship rematch against Clemson. Paul Johnson’s triple option offense has evolved this year with QB Jonathan Dwyer gaining more experience and more polish on his passing game. Look for big games from all facets of the Tech offense. PICK Georgia Tech 38 – Georgia 28
Regular Lox
Nevada (+13.5) @ Boise State – Friday
Even though Boise State has won 9 in a row in this series the last two were close including 66-64 in 4 overtimes last time on the Blue Turf. Nevada has won 7 in a row after starting the season with 3 straight losses. The winner of this game is the WAC Champion and Boise is obviously playing for more with hopes of a BCS berth. Nevada will play this game close I expect with the game decided in the fourth quarter. Nevada leads the nation in rushing and with three 1,000 yard rushers like to spread the ball around. We’ll see if Boise can stop a great offense after the opening week win over Oregon and their vaunted offense. Boise needs to make a statement to get the BCS to look their way, but Nevada should give them a tough game. PICK: Boise State 42 – Nevada 34
Notre Dame @ Stanford (Over 63)
I will be in the stands to watch this game as Stanford looks to bounce back after their crushing loss in the Big Game to Cal last week while Notre Dame will get one last chance to watch Charlie Weis coach the team. With both team’s strength their offense I expect this to be a high scoring game with Toby Gerhart running for over 200 yards and a few TDs and Andrew Luck having a good game after last week’s disaster. Jimmy Clausen might not come back to the Irish with his stock in the draft sure to be high and students taking cheap shots at him in local bars (if you haven’t heard Clausen was “coldcocked” in a South Bend bar following the loss to UCONN Saturday night). The Irish always keep games close and this will be no different as the Cardinal will not be able to stop the passing game and WR Golden Tate, but I think the Cardinal get the win knowing they need it to attract an upper tier Pac 10 bowl. But the best bet here is a high scoring affair and the Over. PICK: Stanford 41 – Notre Dame 33
Arizona (-4) @ Arizona State
The Wildcats have lost two straight including last week’s heartbreaker in 2 overtimes when a shot at the Rose Bowl was on the line. Now they are playing not to drop into the lower half of the Pac 10. The Sun Devils can spoil their rivals’ season with a home upset but have not looked capable on offense of scoring enough points. I expect Arizona to bounce back and beat their rival before a big game against USC next week. PICK: Arizona 27 – Arizona State 20
Upsets
South Carolina (+3.5, +135) over Clemson
This rivalry has been dominated by Clemson and it was the blowout of South Carolina last year that clinched the head coaching job for Dabo Swinney. South Carolina has lost three in a row while Clemson has won 6 in a row after their humbling home loss to Maryland. Clemson will play in the ACC Championship next Saturday and with that in mind and the Gamecocks needing this win to avoid playing in a lower tier SEC bowl I think the talent is close enough to call for an upset. PICK: South Carolina 23 – Clemson 21
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
UCLA (+13) @ USC
The Trojans had a week off to stew over the loss to Stanford while UCLA has won 3 in a row after starting 0-5 in the Pac 10. USC has dominated this city rivalry in the last decade but UCLA did pull off the upset three years ago to ruin the Trojans’ chance at the National Championship. I think the Bruins’ defense is good enough to keep them in the game but the offense will need to score to win, unlike last week when the offense failed to score a TD but they beat ASU. I would not be surprised at the upset but will not call for it, take the points though and hope USC did not find their offense in the bye week. PICK: USC 24 – UCLA 16
Pittsburgh (Pick) @ West Virginia – Friday
“The Backyard Brawl” is as intense a rivalry that exists in the country. Pittsburgh ruined West Virginia’s National Championship hopes two years ago and led to the exit of Rich Rodriguez to Michigan. This year it is the opposite with the Mountaineers playing the spoiler against one-loss Pittsburgh which has a bigger game on deck against Cincinnati. They will not overlook their hated rivals here and even on the road I expect Dave Wannstedt to lead his team to victory. RB Dion Lewis for Pitt and Noel Devine for WV should put on a show and this could come down to which QB plays better, Bill Stull or Jarrett Brown. Pitt has won two in a row and hasn’t won 3 in a row in the series since 1982. I’ll call for them to win on the road and set up a showdown for the Big East next week. PICK: Pittsburgh 31 – West Virginia 28
Georgia @ Georgia Tech (-7.5)
Last year’s upset by Tech on the road solidified Paul Johnson as head coach and vaulted the Yellow Jackets into their one-loss season and ACC Coastal title. Tech has dominated most every opponent but needed overtime in a surprise scare by Wake Forest. Georgia has struggled against the best competition on their schedule and then last week were upset by Kentucky. After a week off I expect Tech to take down Georgia before the ACC Championship rematch against Clemson. Paul Johnson’s triple option offense has evolved this year with QB Jonathan Dwyer gaining more experience and more polish on his passing game. Look for big games from all facets of the Tech offense. PICK Georgia Tech 38 – Georgia 28
Regular Lox
Nevada (+13.5) @ Boise State – Friday
Even though Boise State has won 9 in a row in this series the last two were close including 66-64 in 4 overtimes last time on the Blue Turf. Nevada has won 7 in a row after starting the season with 3 straight losses. The winner of this game is the WAC Champion and Boise is obviously playing for more with hopes of a BCS berth. Nevada will play this game close I expect with the game decided in the fourth quarter. Nevada leads the nation in rushing and with three 1,000 yard rushers like to spread the ball around. We’ll see if Boise can stop a great offense after the opening week win over Oregon and their vaunted offense. Boise needs to make a statement to get the BCS to look their way, but Nevada should give them a tough game. PICK: Boise State 42 – Nevada 34
Notre Dame @ Stanford (Over 63)
I will be in the stands to watch this game as Stanford looks to bounce back after their crushing loss in the Big Game to Cal last week while Notre Dame will get one last chance to watch Charlie Weis coach the team. With both team’s strength their offense I expect this to be a high scoring game with Toby Gerhart running for over 200 yards and a few TDs and Andrew Luck having a good game after last week’s disaster. Jimmy Clausen might not come back to the Irish with his stock in the draft sure to be high and students taking cheap shots at him in local bars (if you haven’t heard Clausen was “coldcocked” in a South Bend bar following the loss to UCONN Saturday night). The Irish always keep games close and this will be no different as the Cardinal will not be able to stop the passing game and WR Golden Tate, but I think the Cardinal get the win knowing they need it to attract an upper tier Pac 10 bowl. But the best bet here is a high scoring affair and the Over. PICK: Stanford 41 – Notre Dame 33
Arizona (-4) @ Arizona State
The Wildcats have lost two straight including last week’s heartbreaker in 2 overtimes when a shot at the Rose Bowl was on the line. Now they are playing not to drop into the lower half of the Pac 10. The Sun Devils can spoil their rivals’ season with a home upset but have not looked capable on offense of scoring enough points. I expect Arizona to bounce back and beat their rival before a big game against USC next week. PICK: Arizona 27 – Arizona State 20
Upsets
South Carolina (+3.5, +135) over Clemson
This rivalry has been dominated by Clemson and it was the blowout of South Carolina last year that clinched the head coaching job for Dabo Swinney. South Carolina has lost three in a row while Clemson has won 6 in a row after their humbling home loss to Maryland. Clemson will play in the ACC Championship next Saturday and with that in mind and the Gamecocks needing this win to avoid playing in a lower tier SEC bowl I think the talent is close enough to call for an upset. PICK: South Carolina 23 – Clemson 21
Friday, November 20, 2009
College Football Week 12
Saturday Lox Week 12
Premium Lox
Rutgers (-8) @ Syracuse
Rutgers still has a lot to play for in the Big East while the Cuse got their first victory in conference play last week vs. Louisville. I have had success going against the Orange this year and I think Rutgers will continue the streak. PICK: Rutgers 31 – Syracuse 17
Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. Baylor
Baylor has had a tough year after losing their star QB early. The Aggies meanwhile have been blown out against good competition but have won the games they should. This game fits in the latter category and they should handle business at home in preparation for the rivalry game vs. Texas. PICK: Texas A&M 27 – Baylor 20
Arizona State @ UCLA (Under 41.5)
Both teams rely on their defense to win games. Add to that a new starting QB for the Sun Devils and this game has the makings of a slugfest. Turnovers could lead to enough points and ruin the under but I will take my chances. UCLA has shown some signs of life on offense but ASU held USC to 14 and I think will do similar damage to the Bruins. PICK: UCLA 20 – Arizona State 17
Regular Lox
Connecticut (+6) @ Notre Dame
UCONN has lost three in a row since the tragic death of CB Jasper Howard but have had a week off to get back to some semblance of normalcy. The Irish meanwhile would love to get back to normal but will not until the end of the season and the Charlie Weis questions are answered. Notre Dame should play a good game for their embattled coach but UCONN has a way of playing teams close and ND has a tendency to let teams stay in games. I think this game comes down to the final drive as many have for the Irish and I would not be surprised at the upset. Golden Tate has been tremendous for the Irish and I can see him making the difference once again. PICK: ND 31 – UCONN 30
Texas Tech (+6.5) vs. Oklahoma
Both of these teams have a lot to play for in the Big 12 South. The Sooners would like to avoid a trip to a second rate bowl game while the Red Raiders would like to beat Oklahoma for the second time in a row in Lubbock. I think both teams are fairly even with all the injuries suffered by the Sooners and this spread is more about tradition than reality. Tech has looked bad in a loss to A&M while looking great in wins over Nebraska and the Kansas schools. They lost last week at OK State in a close game and at home might have enough to pull the upset Saturday. Just in case buy the half point and hope they stay within a TD. PICK: Oklahoma 34 – Texas Tech 31
Air Force (+10) @ BYU
Air Force is playing its best football of the year winning 3 in a row after a close loss to Utah. BYU has had an up and down season and is probably more worried about their rivalry against Utah next week. Air Force is 20-7 ATS in conference over the last 3 years. Couple that with BYU’s struggles covering the spread against good teams and I will take the Falcons on the road. They have not fared well in this rivalry but I expect a close game here and a good showing from the Air Force Academy with conference bragging rights on the line. PICK: BYU 27 – Air Force 21
Upsets
LSU (+3.5)(+130) @ Ole Miss
I thought about several upsets, including Michigan State at home over Penn State and North Carolina visiting Boston College. But the Spartans just haven’t done enough to show me they can beat even a mediocre Nittany Lions team. Boston College plays great at home and in fact has covered every home game and not covered in every road game this year. So I will not go against that trend. But my Upset pick of the week is also a team that struggles on the road. LSU visits Ole Miss with second place in the SEC West up for grabs. Even with a multitude of injuries I expect LSU to find a way to win in Oxford and hand the Rebels another tough loss in what was supposed to be a great season. The Tigers’ defense will be the difference as Jevan Snead will struggle again playing a talented defense. PICK: LSU 20 – Ole Miss 19
Premium Lox
Rutgers (-8) @ Syracuse
Rutgers still has a lot to play for in the Big East while the Cuse got their first victory in conference play last week vs. Louisville. I have had success going against the Orange this year and I think Rutgers will continue the streak. PICK: Rutgers 31 – Syracuse 17
Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. Baylor
Baylor has had a tough year after losing their star QB early. The Aggies meanwhile have been blown out against good competition but have won the games they should. This game fits in the latter category and they should handle business at home in preparation for the rivalry game vs. Texas. PICK: Texas A&M 27 – Baylor 20
Arizona State @ UCLA (Under 41.5)
Both teams rely on their defense to win games. Add to that a new starting QB for the Sun Devils and this game has the makings of a slugfest. Turnovers could lead to enough points and ruin the under but I will take my chances. UCLA has shown some signs of life on offense but ASU held USC to 14 and I think will do similar damage to the Bruins. PICK: UCLA 20 – Arizona State 17
Regular Lox
Connecticut (+6) @ Notre Dame
UCONN has lost three in a row since the tragic death of CB Jasper Howard but have had a week off to get back to some semblance of normalcy. The Irish meanwhile would love to get back to normal but will not until the end of the season and the Charlie Weis questions are answered. Notre Dame should play a good game for their embattled coach but UCONN has a way of playing teams close and ND has a tendency to let teams stay in games. I think this game comes down to the final drive as many have for the Irish and I would not be surprised at the upset. Golden Tate has been tremendous for the Irish and I can see him making the difference once again. PICK: ND 31 – UCONN 30
Texas Tech (+6.5) vs. Oklahoma
Both of these teams have a lot to play for in the Big 12 South. The Sooners would like to avoid a trip to a second rate bowl game while the Red Raiders would like to beat Oklahoma for the second time in a row in Lubbock. I think both teams are fairly even with all the injuries suffered by the Sooners and this spread is more about tradition than reality. Tech has looked bad in a loss to A&M while looking great in wins over Nebraska and the Kansas schools. They lost last week at OK State in a close game and at home might have enough to pull the upset Saturday. Just in case buy the half point and hope they stay within a TD. PICK: Oklahoma 34 – Texas Tech 31
Air Force (+10) @ BYU
Air Force is playing its best football of the year winning 3 in a row after a close loss to Utah. BYU has had an up and down season and is probably more worried about their rivalry against Utah next week. Air Force is 20-7 ATS in conference over the last 3 years. Couple that with BYU’s struggles covering the spread against good teams and I will take the Falcons on the road. They have not fared well in this rivalry but I expect a close game here and a good showing from the Air Force Academy with conference bragging rights on the line. PICK: BYU 27 – Air Force 21
Upsets
LSU (+3.5)(+130) @ Ole Miss
I thought about several upsets, including Michigan State at home over Penn State and North Carolina visiting Boston College. But the Spartans just haven’t done enough to show me they can beat even a mediocre Nittany Lions team. Boston College plays great at home and in fact has covered every home game and not covered in every road game this year. So I will not go against that trend. But my Upset pick of the week is also a team that struggles on the road. LSU visits Ole Miss with second place in the SEC West up for grabs. Even with a multitude of injuries I expect LSU to find a way to win in Oxford and hand the Rebels another tough loss in what was supposed to be a great season. The Tigers’ defense will be the difference as Jevan Snead will struggle again playing a talented defense. PICK: LSU 20 – Ole Miss 19
Week 11 in Review
The Fall of Troy – 21st Century Edition
USC had an amazing run of 7 straight years atop the Pacific 10 Conference. Two National Titles, three Heisman Trophy winners, too many Rose Bowl victories to count. But in sobering fashion on Saturday the Stanford Cardinal ended a decade of dominance, arrogance and seeming invincibility for Pete Carroll and the Trojans.
Fans, alumni and students had packed the Coliseum for Homecoming in preparation for what they thought would be payback for the “Biggest Upset in History” two years ago, when Stanford beat USC as 41 point underdogs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season at Stanford. Homecoming didn’t last past the fourth quarter though as many fans were driving home on LA’s freeway system by the time Harbaugh decided to go for two leading 48-21. USC was booed at home for the first time in memory. The Trojans gave up the most points in school history, 55. Pete Carroll lost his first game in the month of November as USC Coach.
It was a monumental day for the Stanford football team and the Pac 10 as a whole. The flesh wounds that Oregon exposed in USC Halloween weekend were made into fatal blows by the Cardinal’s physical running attack and precise passing game. Toby Gerhart continued to show he is worthy of Heisman Trophy consideration with a 178 yard performance and 3 TDs. But maybe the most remarkable part of the game was that the third string RB for Stanford scored their final TD after running through the entire defensive front of the Trojans, and it was USC’s starters. What the Trojans did to teams for seemingly a decade, that is be more physical, more hungry, better executed, better coached, and never stop playing, is exactly what Stanford did on Saturday and Oregon two weeks before. A new team will represent the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl and that is a good thing.
As for the pundits and critics in Southern California and all over the nation that have made this game more about the two-point conversion and running up the score. If USC had a problem with it they should have stopped Stanford from getting the opportunity. Star safety Taylor Mays was none too happy about the play, but maybe that was because after laying a hit on Stanford TE Coby Fleener on a TD catch, Mays was the one getting up slow with stars circling over his helmet. The Trojans routinely won games by 40, 50 points over the years, going for 4th downs in the fourth quarter of blowouts and scoring more TDs when the game was clearly out of reach. How about throwing a long TD against Oregon last year while up by multiple scores. Maybe Pete has not gone for two in that situation, but regardless USC has not been the image of good sportsmen over the years. I can recall outrageous celebrations and chest bumping by USC players in the midst of blowouts. Then there is the famous Rey Maualuga incident with Erin Andrews on the sideline ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdDGYsYXHKc&feature=related ). If that doesn’t say classless I don’t know what does. The fact is USC was dominated in a fashion that has not happened before this year and if they couldn’t stop a third string RB from scoring on a play everyone knows is coming, then they should be more worried about the rest of their season than a two-point conversion that they actually did stop.
Maybe we could have seen this coming starting in January when Steve Sarkisian left for Washington taking Pete’s defensive coordinator with him. That was followed by Mark Sanchez leaving USC and a strange news conference where Pete did not seem to have his usual confidence and swagger, almost begging Sanchez to reconsider. This was not the USC dynasty we were used to seeing. A chink in the armor could be seen if you looked closely. By the time the season started a freshman quarterback was starting for the first time in history and the Trojans went down to a team that went winless the prior year. USC will be back no question, but the performance of Stanford on Saturday made recruiting against Pete Carroll and USC a little easier. You think Harbaugh might talk about November 14th in the LA Coliseum to a few kids that grew up dreaming of being a Trojan? My guess is yes and the conversation won’t be about any two-point conversion that Stanford missed.
The Rest of the Nation
The headliner came out west for a change as games in Columbus, Ohio, Columbia, SC and Pittsburgh didn’t match the intrigue of LA. Ohio State claimed the Big 10 with an overtime win over Iowa, but as usual the conservative style of Jim Tressell made the game practically unwatchable. Ohio State has not played in a Rose Bowl since 1996 so to see them go against a Pac 10 team in Pasadena should be good. I can’t wait to see if their near top-ranked defense can handle a team with a good offense (my apologies to Penn State, Iowa and the rest of the Big 10-MAC schedule OSU plays). They didn’t handle the SEC’s best over the years in BCS losses and should get a great test against Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State or Arizona, who are all alive for the other Rose Bowl berth.
Florida was able to handle a great effort from South Carolina in Columbia and now can look ahead to Florida State and Alabama. As evidence that the SEC should be knocked down a peg for scheduling cupcake competition, Florida gets a scrimmage against Florida Int’l this Saturday while Alabama goes against Tenn. Chattanooga. At least you have to give Ohio State credit for taking on USC earlier this year. The SEC might as well not play non-conference games if this is the competition they invite.
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati continued their winning ways and are headed for a big showdown for the Big East title and BCS berth. The Panthers handed Charlie Weis another loss while the Bearcats beat West Virginia on Friday night after a questionable night by the officials (again). Texas and Nebraska seem destined to meet in Dallas for the Big 12 Title after both winning Saturday while Georgia Tech sealed a spot against Clemson most likely in the ACC final. The Pac 10 is the most exciting conference in football with as many as 4 teams remaining for the title and at least 4 or 5 games that could have serious implications. Who needs a Conference Title game when you have that. Oh yeah, I forgot, money and sponsors rule the day. I present to you Oregon @ Arizona, presented by Tucson National Credit Union. The Stanford-Cal Big Game presented by Genentech and finally the Oregon-Oregon State Civil War in two weeks presented by Nike. Could work, right?
Top 10
1. Florida – The Gators may not look like last year’s team, but they are undefeated this year and are winning games with defense and just enough offense.
2. Alabama – Nick Saban has his team on a collision course with Florida. But the rivalry against Auburn will be Gene Chizik’s first in the series and Auburn’s offense has the ability but not the consistency. A big upset would ruin the SEC’s dream of a #1-2 title game.
3. TCU – This team continued to dominate against the best competition they face. Wins at Clemson and BYU and Utah in Fort Worth this past week have TCU all but sure of the BCS. Avoid the upset and they have a slight chance for the BCS title game if Alabama and Texas get upset.
4. Texas – I have the Longhorns as the #2 team in Texas. I look at the way TCU plays defense and I think they would stop Colt McCoy and company. I would love to see the old Southwestern Conference, with TCU, Texas, A&M, Tech, Houston and others. TCU might prove they were the best of the bunch this year.
5. Cincinnati – The Bearcats were fortunate to get a TD on a controversial call and beat WV by 3. Pittsburgh awaits in what will be a de facto Big East title game.
6. Georgia Tech – GT trailed Duke 10-0 early before rattling off 49 straight points. Josh Nesbitt is throwing the ball better while the running game continues to dominate. Nobody wants to play this team come Bowl season.
7. Boise State – The Broncos just haven’t done enough to stay above one-loss GT. They don’t play the best competition and they don’t look unstoppable against overmatched teams. Nevada might have a shot at an upset on the Blue Turf in a few weeks.
8. Pittsburgh – The Panthers beat Notre Dame and are looking good for a shot at the BCS. Who knows how good the team really is but we know RB Dion Lewis is legit.
9. Oregon – The Ducks continued to dominate teams in Eugene, but they have been outgained on average in their road games and must beat Arizona in Tucson this week to set up a Civil War for the Rose Bowl. Zona ruined their BCS hopes two years ago, the Ducks remember.
10. Stanford – The Cardinal have two of the biggest upsets of the season in back to back weeks and in my mind are better right now than two-loss teams Ohio State, LSU, Iowa, Penn State. None of those teams have wins over an Oregon or USC. Ohio State lost to USC and Purdue and big wins over Iowa and Penn State doesn’t count so much since those teams have really beat nobody good. LSU lost to Florida and Alabama, but have not beaten any great teams either. That leaves Stanford as the best of the rest. Their only losses were on the road to Arizona and Oregon State, and an early season last second road loss to Wake Forest after questionable officiating. Put the Cardinal on the field with those above mentioned teams and I think Stanford’s offense rules the day. Until those Big 10 teams beat anybody out of conference, they don’t belong in the same conversation as the best teams in the nation.
Saturday Lox Week 11 in Review
Premium
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 16-20
Winners:
Oregon State (-13): 48-21
The Beavers won easily over a Washington team that is on its last legs after starting the year well. Oregon State still has its sights set on a Rose Bowl and revenge against Oregon.
Losers:
BYU (-27.5): 24-19
The Cougars almost gave New Mexico their first win of the year but held on. BYU is not a good road team and even with the big win over Oklahoma has to consider this a disappointing season.
Arizona (+3): 16-24
Cal handled the Wildcats fairly easily and could have won by more if not for multiple turnovers in the red zone by Cal. But Arizona had the cover before Cal RB Shayne Vereen scored on a long TD run late 4th quarter to seal it. Tough loss.
Regular
Last Week: 3-0
Overall: 16-18-2
Winners:
Stanford (+11): 55-21
Toby Gerhart scored three times and had 178 yards rushing but it was Andrew Luck that controlled the game with his feet (61 yards rushing and a TD) and his arm (2 TDs). Harbaugh proved prophetic when he called Luck the best QB in the country, as he has engineered two upsets in a row and has shown off for NFL scouts who wish he was eligible this year. Matt Barkley looked bad in a battle of freshman Pac 10 signal callers, but the whole Stanford team dominated the Trojans. It could be a good rivalry for a few years to come as Barkley and Luck develop and the coaches continue to dislike each other. Stanford and Harbaugh lead the series for now.
Georgia Tech (-14): 49-10
The Yellow Jackets had no problem coming from behind against Duke. They scored at will against an overmatched defense after trailing early. Running, passing and special teams were all in GT’s favor as they clinched a spot in the ACC title game.
Nebraska (-3): 31-17
The Cornhuskers came one step closer to getting a chance at Texas in the Big 12 title by beating Kansas. The defense has been there all season for Nebraska and the offense finally played good enough to get a comfortable win.
Upsets
Last Week: 0-2 (outright upsets)
Overall: 9-13 (outright upsets)
Kansas State and Vanderbilt couldn’t pull the conference upsets as Missouri and Kentucky ruined their chances with strong showings. Both teams get another chance at the upset this week, but have stronger opponents in Nebraska and Tennessee respectively.
USC had an amazing run of 7 straight years atop the Pacific 10 Conference. Two National Titles, three Heisman Trophy winners, too many Rose Bowl victories to count. But in sobering fashion on Saturday the Stanford Cardinal ended a decade of dominance, arrogance and seeming invincibility for Pete Carroll and the Trojans.
Fans, alumni and students had packed the Coliseum for Homecoming in preparation for what they thought would be payback for the “Biggest Upset in History” two years ago, when Stanford beat USC as 41 point underdogs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season at Stanford. Homecoming didn’t last past the fourth quarter though as many fans were driving home on LA’s freeway system by the time Harbaugh decided to go for two leading 48-21. USC was booed at home for the first time in memory. The Trojans gave up the most points in school history, 55. Pete Carroll lost his first game in the month of November as USC Coach.
It was a monumental day for the Stanford football team and the Pac 10 as a whole. The flesh wounds that Oregon exposed in USC Halloween weekend were made into fatal blows by the Cardinal’s physical running attack and precise passing game. Toby Gerhart continued to show he is worthy of Heisman Trophy consideration with a 178 yard performance and 3 TDs. But maybe the most remarkable part of the game was that the third string RB for Stanford scored their final TD after running through the entire defensive front of the Trojans, and it was USC’s starters. What the Trojans did to teams for seemingly a decade, that is be more physical, more hungry, better executed, better coached, and never stop playing, is exactly what Stanford did on Saturday and Oregon two weeks before. A new team will represent the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl and that is a good thing.
As for the pundits and critics in Southern California and all over the nation that have made this game more about the two-point conversion and running up the score. If USC had a problem with it they should have stopped Stanford from getting the opportunity. Star safety Taylor Mays was none too happy about the play, but maybe that was because after laying a hit on Stanford TE Coby Fleener on a TD catch, Mays was the one getting up slow with stars circling over his helmet. The Trojans routinely won games by 40, 50 points over the years, going for 4th downs in the fourth quarter of blowouts and scoring more TDs when the game was clearly out of reach. How about throwing a long TD against Oregon last year while up by multiple scores. Maybe Pete has not gone for two in that situation, but regardless USC has not been the image of good sportsmen over the years. I can recall outrageous celebrations and chest bumping by USC players in the midst of blowouts. Then there is the famous Rey Maualuga incident with Erin Andrews on the sideline ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdDGYsYXHKc&feature=related ). If that doesn’t say classless I don’t know what does. The fact is USC was dominated in a fashion that has not happened before this year and if they couldn’t stop a third string RB from scoring on a play everyone knows is coming, then they should be more worried about the rest of their season than a two-point conversion that they actually did stop.
Maybe we could have seen this coming starting in January when Steve Sarkisian left for Washington taking Pete’s defensive coordinator with him. That was followed by Mark Sanchez leaving USC and a strange news conference where Pete did not seem to have his usual confidence and swagger, almost begging Sanchez to reconsider. This was not the USC dynasty we were used to seeing. A chink in the armor could be seen if you looked closely. By the time the season started a freshman quarterback was starting for the first time in history and the Trojans went down to a team that went winless the prior year. USC will be back no question, but the performance of Stanford on Saturday made recruiting against Pete Carroll and USC a little easier. You think Harbaugh might talk about November 14th in the LA Coliseum to a few kids that grew up dreaming of being a Trojan? My guess is yes and the conversation won’t be about any two-point conversion that Stanford missed.
The Rest of the Nation
The headliner came out west for a change as games in Columbus, Ohio, Columbia, SC and Pittsburgh didn’t match the intrigue of LA. Ohio State claimed the Big 10 with an overtime win over Iowa, but as usual the conservative style of Jim Tressell made the game practically unwatchable. Ohio State has not played in a Rose Bowl since 1996 so to see them go against a Pac 10 team in Pasadena should be good. I can’t wait to see if their near top-ranked defense can handle a team with a good offense (my apologies to Penn State, Iowa and the rest of the Big 10-MAC schedule OSU plays). They didn’t handle the SEC’s best over the years in BCS losses and should get a great test against Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State or Arizona, who are all alive for the other Rose Bowl berth.
Florida was able to handle a great effort from South Carolina in Columbia and now can look ahead to Florida State and Alabama. As evidence that the SEC should be knocked down a peg for scheduling cupcake competition, Florida gets a scrimmage against Florida Int’l this Saturday while Alabama goes against Tenn. Chattanooga. At least you have to give Ohio State credit for taking on USC earlier this year. The SEC might as well not play non-conference games if this is the competition they invite.
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati continued their winning ways and are headed for a big showdown for the Big East title and BCS berth. The Panthers handed Charlie Weis another loss while the Bearcats beat West Virginia on Friday night after a questionable night by the officials (again). Texas and Nebraska seem destined to meet in Dallas for the Big 12 Title after both winning Saturday while Georgia Tech sealed a spot against Clemson most likely in the ACC final. The Pac 10 is the most exciting conference in football with as many as 4 teams remaining for the title and at least 4 or 5 games that could have serious implications. Who needs a Conference Title game when you have that. Oh yeah, I forgot, money and sponsors rule the day. I present to you Oregon @ Arizona, presented by Tucson National Credit Union. The Stanford-Cal Big Game presented by Genentech and finally the Oregon-Oregon State Civil War in two weeks presented by Nike. Could work, right?
Top 10
1. Florida – The Gators may not look like last year’s team, but they are undefeated this year and are winning games with defense and just enough offense.
2. Alabama – Nick Saban has his team on a collision course with Florida. But the rivalry against Auburn will be Gene Chizik’s first in the series and Auburn’s offense has the ability but not the consistency. A big upset would ruin the SEC’s dream of a #1-2 title game.
3. TCU – This team continued to dominate against the best competition they face. Wins at Clemson and BYU and Utah in Fort Worth this past week have TCU all but sure of the BCS. Avoid the upset and they have a slight chance for the BCS title game if Alabama and Texas get upset.
4. Texas – I have the Longhorns as the #2 team in Texas. I look at the way TCU plays defense and I think they would stop Colt McCoy and company. I would love to see the old Southwestern Conference, with TCU, Texas, A&M, Tech, Houston and others. TCU might prove they were the best of the bunch this year.
5. Cincinnati – The Bearcats were fortunate to get a TD on a controversial call and beat WV by 3. Pittsburgh awaits in what will be a de facto Big East title game.
6. Georgia Tech – GT trailed Duke 10-0 early before rattling off 49 straight points. Josh Nesbitt is throwing the ball better while the running game continues to dominate. Nobody wants to play this team come Bowl season.
7. Boise State – The Broncos just haven’t done enough to stay above one-loss GT. They don’t play the best competition and they don’t look unstoppable against overmatched teams. Nevada might have a shot at an upset on the Blue Turf in a few weeks.
8. Pittsburgh – The Panthers beat Notre Dame and are looking good for a shot at the BCS. Who knows how good the team really is but we know RB Dion Lewis is legit.
9. Oregon – The Ducks continued to dominate teams in Eugene, but they have been outgained on average in their road games and must beat Arizona in Tucson this week to set up a Civil War for the Rose Bowl. Zona ruined their BCS hopes two years ago, the Ducks remember.
10. Stanford – The Cardinal have two of the biggest upsets of the season in back to back weeks and in my mind are better right now than two-loss teams Ohio State, LSU, Iowa, Penn State. None of those teams have wins over an Oregon or USC. Ohio State lost to USC and Purdue and big wins over Iowa and Penn State doesn’t count so much since those teams have really beat nobody good. LSU lost to Florida and Alabama, but have not beaten any great teams either. That leaves Stanford as the best of the rest. Their only losses were on the road to Arizona and Oregon State, and an early season last second road loss to Wake Forest after questionable officiating. Put the Cardinal on the field with those above mentioned teams and I think Stanford’s offense rules the day. Until those Big 10 teams beat anybody out of conference, they don’t belong in the same conversation as the best teams in the nation.
Saturday Lox Week 11 in Review
Premium
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 16-20
Winners:
Oregon State (-13): 48-21
The Beavers won easily over a Washington team that is on its last legs after starting the year well. Oregon State still has its sights set on a Rose Bowl and revenge against Oregon.
Losers:
BYU (-27.5): 24-19
The Cougars almost gave New Mexico their first win of the year but held on. BYU is not a good road team and even with the big win over Oklahoma has to consider this a disappointing season.
Arizona (+3): 16-24
Cal handled the Wildcats fairly easily and could have won by more if not for multiple turnovers in the red zone by Cal. But Arizona had the cover before Cal RB Shayne Vereen scored on a long TD run late 4th quarter to seal it. Tough loss.
Regular
Last Week: 3-0
Overall: 16-18-2
Winners:
Stanford (+11): 55-21
Toby Gerhart scored three times and had 178 yards rushing but it was Andrew Luck that controlled the game with his feet (61 yards rushing and a TD) and his arm (2 TDs). Harbaugh proved prophetic when he called Luck the best QB in the country, as he has engineered two upsets in a row and has shown off for NFL scouts who wish he was eligible this year. Matt Barkley looked bad in a battle of freshman Pac 10 signal callers, but the whole Stanford team dominated the Trojans. It could be a good rivalry for a few years to come as Barkley and Luck develop and the coaches continue to dislike each other. Stanford and Harbaugh lead the series for now.
Georgia Tech (-14): 49-10
The Yellow Jackets had no problem coming from behind against Duke. They scored at will against an overmatched defense after trailing early. Running, passing and special teams were all in GT’s favor as they clinched a spot in the ACC title game.
Nebraska (-3): 31-17
The Cornhuskers came one step closer to getting a chance at Texas in the Big 12 title by beating Kansas. The defense has been there all season for Nebraska and the offense finally played good enough to get a comfortable win.
Upsets
Last Week: 0-2 (outright upsets)
Overall: 9-13 (outright upsets)
Kansas State and Vanderbilt couldn’t pull the conference upsets as Missouri and Kentucky ruined their chances with strong showings. Both teams get another chance at the upset this week, but have stronger opponents in Nebraska and Tennessee respectively.
Friday, November 13, 2009
College Football Week 11
They Did What? In a Toyota Prius?
As a proud owner of a Toyota Prius I couldn’t help but feel that my image has been tarnished by a few college football players in Knoxville, Tennessee. According to published reports three Tennessee freshmen football players along with a woman are accused of armed robbery after brandishing a pellet gun and asking people for money outside a gas station. The story gets interesting when the victims told police that the attackers fled in a Toyota Prius, which was later pulled over and its occupants arrested on campus. I have been told by authorities the Prius is a secret weapon in robberies because of its quiet engine and ability to sneak up on unsuspecting victims. The school has announced the players, one of whom has yet to make bail (must not have NFL talent), will not travel with the team this weekend. The SEC has released a statement saying that although the players will face discipline from the Conference, it will be taken into consideration that the young men were doing their best to fight global warming and save our natural resources while committing the crime. They expect to be back for the Volunteers final home game against Vanderbilt. OK. Just joking, but would it really surprise you if the school and the conference did try to get the players back soon with some lame excuse. The SEC, the best place to do a crime, because you won’t do the time, if you fill the seats in primetime.
Now onto the games.
Premium Lox
Oregon State (-13) vs. Washington
The Beavers are peaking in November again while the toll of a tough schedule and emotional highs and lows is catching up with the Huskies. With Oregon State at home I expect them to put a lot of pressure on the UW defense with the Rodgers brothers and Canfield at QB and a lot of points will be scored. Unfortunately for UW they will probably be on the wrong side of too many Jacquizz Rodgers celebrations. PICK: Oregon State 41 – Washington 21
BYU (-27.5) @ New Mexico
Not much to be said here. New Mexico is struggling mightily while BYU looks to dominate another lesser foe. The spread is high but if the Cougars show up they should win by two TDs, playing decent should get them a four TD win. PICK: BYU 41 – New Mexico 10
Arizona (+3) (+125) @ California
Arizona’s only conference loss was a fluke interception return for a TD at Washington. Cal is missing its best player for this game yet it still favored at home over the co-leader of the Pac 10. The talent may be similar but Mike Stoops has his team playing much better and more consistent football. Unless Jeff Tedford finds an offense without Best they won’t win this game. It will be close but I will call for the upset. PICK: Arizona 27 – California 24
Regular Lox
Nebraska (-3) @ Kansas
Nebraska comes into Kansas having lost two in a row in Lawrence, including 76-39 two years ago. That should motivate the Cornhuskers plenty, but with a chance to control their own destiny in the Big 12 North they shouldn’t need extra motivation. The Huskers should control the game on defense and get enough out of their anemic offense, against a bad Kansas defense to win the game by a TD. The Under might be a good pick to parlay this game with. PICK: Nebraska 20 – Kansas 13
Georgia Tech (-14) @ Duke
I just don’t see the Blue Devils able to stop the physical GT offense and contain the big play potential of Jonathan Dwyer and company. I have not seen Duke play, but they obviously are having their best season in a long time. I still don’t think they hang with the Yellow Jackets. PICK: Georgia Tech 38 – Duke 20
Stanford (+11) @ USC
After watching Stanford in person roll up 500 yards and 51 points last week over Oregon I believe the Cardinal are better than the 11 point spread. To upset the Trojans would be monumental for Stanford and the way USC has played definitely possible. I expect though the Trojans will play a great game in front of the Homecoming crowd with plenty of motivation two years after the Stanford upset in the Coliseum. But the Cardinal has enough offensive talent and are playing great special teams to make this game close. Andrew Luck just might prove he is the better of the Freshman Pac 10 QBs, but Matt Barkley will get his chance against a suspect Stanford defense. Toby Gerhart will need to continue where he left off against the Ducks (223 yards, 3 TDs) and give his usual 135 yard effort for Stanford to have a chance. But look for other names to help out Jim Harbaugh's offense. Gerhart is the leader but the difference between this year and last for Stanford is the rest of the offense has caught up to the talent of Toby. I expect USC to have a lead in this game but Stanford will keep it close with a chance to pull the upset. I won’t make a final score prediction because I will be cheering for the Cardinal, but I’ll take the points and hope for a good, hard fought game with two coaches who don’t like each other.
Upset Specials
Vanderbilt (+4.5) (+145) vs. Kentucky
Battle for the Basement of the SEC East. Vanderbilt needs to win some time and at home should get the job done against a mediocre Kentucky team. PICK: Vanderbilt 19 – Kentucky 17
Kansas State (+1.5) (+110) vs. Missouri
This may be a cheap upset but Missouri is favored over the Big 12 North leaders and with Kansas State at home I expect them to continue winning. At least until a showdown with Nebraska next week. PICK: Kansas State 27 – Missouri 24
Have a good weekend of football everyone and watch out for those Toyota Prius' this weekend, especially on dark streets at night.
As a proud owner of a Toyota Prius I couldn’t help but feel that my image has been tarnished by a few college football players in Knoxville, Tennessee. According to published reports three Tennessee freshmen football players along with a woman are accused of armed robbery after brandishing a pellet gun and asking people for money outside a gas station. The story gets interesting when the victims told police that the attackers fled in a Toyota Prius, which was later pulled over and its occupants arrested on campus. I have been told by authorities the Prius is a secret weapon in robberies because of its quiet engine and ability to sneak up on unsuspecting victims. The school has announced the players, one of whom has yet to make bail (must not have NFL talent), will not travel with the team this weekend. The SEC has released a statement saying that although the players will face discipline from the Conference, it will be taken into consideration that the young men were doing their best to fight global warming and save our natural resources while committing the crime. They expect to be back for the Volunteers final home game against Vanderbilt. OK. Just joking, but would it really surprise you if the school and the conference did try to get the players back soon with some lame excuse. The SEC, the best place to do a crime, because you won’t do the time, if you fill the seats in primetime.
Now onto the games.
Premium Lox
Oregon State (-13) vs. Washington
The Beavers are peaking in November again while the toll of a tough schedule and emotional highs and lows is catching up with the Huskies. With Oregon State at home I expect them to put a lot of pressure on the UW defense with the Rodgers brothers and Canfield at QB and a lot of points will be scored. Unfortunately for UW they will probably be on the wrong side of too many Jacquizz Rodgers celebrations. PICK: Oregon State 41 – Washington 21
BYU (-27.5) @ New Mexico
Not much to be said here. New Mexico is struggling mightily while BYU looks to dominate another lesser foe. The spread is high but if the Cougars show up they should win by two TDs, playing decent should get them a four TD win. PICK: BYU 41 – New Mexico 10
Arizona (+3) (+125) @ California
Arizona’s only conference loss was a fluke interception return for a TD at Washington. Cal is missing its best player for this game yet it still favored at home over the co-leader of the Pac 10. The talent may be similar but Mike Stoops has his team playing much better and more consistent football. Unless Jeff Tedford finds an offense without Best they won’t win this game. It will be close but I will call for the upset. PICK: Arizona 27 – California 24
Regular Lox
Nebraska (-3) @ Kansas
Nebraska comes into Kansas having lost two in a row in Lawrence, including 76-39 two years ago. That should motivate the Cornhuskers plenty, but with a chance to control their own destiny in the Big 12 North they shouldn’t need extra motivation. The Huskers should control the game on defense and get enough out of their anemic offense, against a bad Kansas defense to win the game by a TD. The Under might be a good pick to parlay this game with. PICK: Nebraska 20 – Kansas 13
Georgia Tech (-14) @ Duke
I just don’t see the Blue Devils able to stop the physical GT offense and contain the big play potential of Jonathan Dwyer and company. I have not seen Duke play, but they obviously are having their best season in a long time. I still don’t think they hang with the Yellow Jackets. PICK: Georgia Tech 38 – Duke 20
Stanford (+11) @ USC
After watching Stanford in person roll up 500 yards and 51 points last week over Oregon I believe the Cardinal are better than the 11 point spread. To upset the Trojans would be monumental for Stanford and the way USC has played definitely possible. I expect though the Trojans will play a great game in front of the Homecoming crowd with plenty of motivation two years after the Stanford upset in the Coliseum. But the Cardinal has enough offensive talent and are playing great special teams to make this game close. Andrew Luck just might prove he is the better of the Freshman Pac 10 QBs, but Matt Barkley will get his chance against a suspect Stanford defense. Toby Gerhart will need to continue where he left off against the Ducks (223 yards, 3 TDs) and give his usual 135 yard effort for Stanford to have a chance. But look for other names to help out Jim Harbaugh's offense. Gerhart is the leader but the difference between this year and last for Stanford is the rest of the offense has caught up to the talent of Toby. I expect USC to have a lead in this game but Stanford will keep it close with a chance to pull the upset. I won’t make a final score prediction because I will be cheering for the Cardinal, but I’ll take the points and hope for a good, hard fought game with two coaches who don’t like each other.
Upset Specials
Vanderbilt (+4.5) (+145) vs. Kentucky
Battle for the Basement of the SEC East. Vanderbilt needs to win some time and at home should get the job done against a mediocre Kentucky team. PICK: Vanderbilt 19 – Kentucky 17
Kansas State (+1.5) (+110) vs. Missouri
This may be a cheap upset but Missouri is favored over the Big 12 North leaders and with Kansas State at home I expect them to continue winning. At least until a showdown with Nebraska next week. PICK: Kansas State 27 – Missouri 24
Have a good weekend of football everyone and watch out for those Toyota Prius' this weekend, especially on dark streets at night.
Week 10 in Review
Now that the first Saturday of November is behind us and the weekly Iowa Hawkeyes miracle comeback story is no more, it is time to look at which teams will be left standing come January and which players will be planning trips to Manhattan for a certain award.
1. Florida – Not that the Gators have been any more impressive, but I believe they have shown enough to jump over Alabama and into the number one spot. The December 5th SEC Championship is already decided and these teams must not slip up before then to insure a #1-#2 matchup for what SEC fans will call the real National Championship game. South Carolina this week may be Florida’s toughest test until then. Spurrier has yet to beat his former school.
2. Alabama – The Tide has shown a few chinks in their armor and without star performances from Mark Ingram and Julio Jones would not be sitting here undefeated. And the performance of DT Terrance Cody in the Tennessee game with the blocked field goals was pretty impressive in itself. Tide fans are calling for Ingram to win the first Heisman in history for the program while Cody and LB Rolando McClain are being mentioned as the best players on that side of the ball.
3. Texas – The Longhorns continued their dominance Saturday vs. UCF and the only teams standing in their way are Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M; then the Big 12 Championship against either Nebraska or Kansas State most likely. The rivalry game on Thanksgiving Day in College Station won’t be easy, the home team is 9-4 in the series since the Big 12 began and A&M upset Colt McCoy and company two years ago.
4. Cincinnati – The Bearcats face a difficult test Friday with West Virginia visiting. We will get to see if the Bearcats defense can run with Noel Devine, Jock Sanders and the athletes on the Mountaineers offense. Coach Brian Kelly is already being rumored to Notre Dame once Charlie Weis’ tenure is up, but for now he has his team playing great behind a new starting QB, while his former starter Tony Pike may see some snaps Friday but as a backup. It is great to be a Bearcat right now.
5. TCU – The last real test for TCU comes in this weekend and Utah will be gunning for a win and the conference championship. The Horned Frogs are led on defense by DE Jerry Hughes, who is in the conversation for postseason awards while his team quietly continues its perfect season. It has been an impressive year for Gary Patterson’s TCU team and the MWC as a whole. Utah’s only loss is to Oregon, BYU beat Oklahoma but lost to Florida State, while TCU has won at Virginia and Clemson. The top tier of this conference I would argue could compete on a week to week basis with the Big 10.
6. Boise State – The Broncos did not impress the national audience that saw them win a close game at Louisiana Tech last Friday night. Kellen Moore played just OK at QB with his interception returned for a TD by Tech a big momentum changer that made the game close. Boise must root for Utah this weekend and for the possible one and two loss BCS contenders to continue falling. That means USC, Penn State, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. Believe it or not because LSU can’t be in the BCS as a third member of the SEC, if Georgia Tech wins the ACC, Cincinnati the Big East, Texas the Big 12 and Oregon in the Pac 10, the only teams left for the 3 at-large spots it would seem are Boise, TCU, USC, Arizona, the trio from the Big 10 (which I hope does not happen with the Big 10’s showing lately), and Pittsburgh. No Big 12 teams would appear worthy and the ACC has little chance with Virginia Tech and Miami faltering. This could be the prime year to test if the BCS would ignore a second undefeated team from outside the major conferences to take a 3-loss Notre Dame, Ohio State or Penn State. We’ll see if those teams falter but it would seem Notre Dame has little chance with 3 losses already. I’ll tell you right now I would rather watch figure skating than see one of those teams in a BCS game over an undefeated Boise. Yes Boise would most likely suffer multiple losses in a major conference but they deserve an opportunity to prove their legitimacy on the big stage as Utah did last year. Let them flame out like Hawaii or step up like Utah. Either way it is more entertaining to see than a mediocre traditional power play uninspired football on the big stage.
7. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets continue to win, although Wake Forest gave them perhaps their toughest win of the year. They survived in OT and only have Duke left to win the ACC Coastal. A rematch with Clemson may be on the horizon in the ACC Championship, a hard fought game earlier won by GT in Atlanta. Nesbitt and Dwyer continue to run teams over in Paul Johnson’s Triple Option offense. The Jackets will be a tough matchup for any team and Duke will have a long week of recuperating after this game whether win or lose. GT remains a favorite to represent the conference in the BCS for the first time.
8. Pittsburgh – Who would have thought the loss to NC State would be so significant to this team. The Panthers have the one trip up in September but have not lost since. Notre Dame, Cincinnati and West Virginia are left on the schedule so time will tell if Dave Wannstedt’s team is for real. RB Dion Lewis may be the best freshman in the land though and he has made the whole offense including QB Bill Stull a lot better. If Pitt wins the Big East or does enough to be in a January Bowl game then you will know Lewis had a great 3 games. It starts with the Irish this Saturday under the lights at Heinz Field with a national audience watching Pittsburgh football. Nobody has said that for a while.
9. Oregon – The best of the two-loss teams I believe, the Ducks got feathered in Palo Alto on Saturday but still stand a good chance at the Rose Bowl. The difference I see in Oregon compared to other two loss teams LSU, Ohio State, Penn State and others is a signature win that the Ducks have. Although the USC game is a bit dulled by the 51 points given up to Stanford, the Ducks have proven to be a force on offense and their defense has just this one blemish. As Chip Kelly said after the loss to Stanford, most teams can’t stop Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck on offense. We’ll see if the Trojans can in the Coliseum this week while the Ducks return home to face ASU before the big game in Tucson.
10. LSU – The only losses suffered by the Bayou Bengals are to the top two teams in the country. That separates them from the Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, Trojans, Hurricanes and others that would like to get back in the top 10. Iowa and Ohio State meet this weekend with the winner the likely conference champion and Rose Bowl representative. LSU has no such big games remaining because of the teams in front of them control the SEC but a trip to Oxford to face Ole Miss in two weeks is a revenge game for last year’s blowout in Baton Rouge. We’ll see if Les Miles can keep his team together after last year’s disappointing regular season finish. They lost to Alabama last year and went on to barely beat Troy and lose to Ole Miss and Arkansas to end the season. Tigers fans will be hoping for a 10 win season and bragging rights over their SEC West rivals.
For Conference Supremacy Look West
The Pac 10 is the highest ranked conference in 4 of the 6 BCS computers and for good reason. I usually don't take much from the computers but this year the play on the field matches what the computers say. The conference may not have national champion contenders like the SEC but top to bottom no conference is more balanced and better. UCLA and Cal went undefeated non-conference, but have struggled mightily against the Pac 10. The Bruins won at Tennessee and beat Kansas State at home yet were 0-5 in the Pac 10 until their win over Washington last week. Tennessee has proven to be a solid SEC team and will make a bowl playing in that conference, while Kansas State leads the Big 12 North for the time being and is a power in the weak Big 12. But neither team could beat a bottom feeder in the Pac 10. Don’t be surprised. The fact is the dominance of USC has overshadowed the Pac 10 as a whole for the entire decade, yet this year programs at Arizona and Stanford have risen from the dead to contend for the Rose Bowl, while the Oregon schools continue to play solid football year in and year out. The only easy win in the Pac 10 is Washington State and since it is the only conference that plays nine games, that means 5 more losses are endured by Pac 10 teams each year than their BCS brethren.
The SEC has the top teams in the country and with 3 National Champions in a row you must beat the SEC to win a championship, but after Florida, Alabama and LSU, the SEC is not impressive. Yes most teams can pull an upset on any given week, and most teams have a standout player that will be a high draft pick, but Tennessee, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Georgia and Auburn, et al. have not been top tier football teams this year and cannot blame the conference schedule. I find it funny that when USC loses to a Washington or Oregon State, the national media say it is another bad loss for the Trojans. But when Florida loses to Ole Miss it is forgiven because the supposed strength of the SEC. To sum up the national obsession with the SEC and show that the facts don’t line up with the hype I stole a quote from Houston Nutt, current Ole Miss and former Arkansas coach in a recent story on the SEC supremacy in Sports Illustrated.
“I watch teams in the other conferences all the time and I think, Boy, I’d like to play them.”
Well Coach Nutt you have in fact played teams from the “other” conferences and unfortunately for your teams the results have not been impressive. Over 5 years at Arkansas and Ole Miss Houston Nutt is 1-6 against other BCS conference schools. Losses to USC and Texas in that span are understandable, but Wake Forest, Wisconsin and Missouri are games the SEC should win if they proclaim to be superior. The fact is experts and SEC fans like to say a middle-to-bottom tier SEC team would win or compete for the title in most other conferences, but that is simply not true. The Pac 10 this year is as good as any conference top to bottom and there really is no legitimate argument to the contrary. The SEC has the most tradition and the most raucous stadiums, but just because 105,000 drunk and crazy Tennessee fans file into Neyland Stadium each Saturday does not make them a better team than a mediocre bunch from the Pac 10 that only draws 30,000 fans.
Heisman Race Still Taking Shape
Mark Ingram of Alabama is the favorite on ESPN while Tebow and McCoy are duking it out on other websites and in the national media. I fail to understand how these two still are favorites when their numbers don’t match up to last year’s stats and in the games that mattered most, both QBs played sub par. McCoy has played better since the Oklahoma performance where he was absolutely dreadful and any other player would have been left for dead, while Tebow has been just average in their big wins over LSU and Tennessee. McCoy is getting the sympathy vote because many thought he deserved the award last year but I would ask any voter to watch the Sooners game again before they fill out that ballot. Jordan Shipley would actually get my vote for MVP of Texas as he has been a force on special teams and McCoy’s best weapon on offense. While Tebow gets the tough guy vote for coming back strong after his concussion I still think that he has not been the best player in college football this year.
If I had a vote today neither one would be in my top 3. Mark Ingram deserves heavy consideration, CJ Spiller from Clemson has been phenomenal returning 4 kicks for TDs and carrying the offense on the ground, while Toby Gerhart from Stanford is second in the nation in rushing yards with 16 TDs. Hard to argue with that trio of running backs. Gerhart has done it week in and week out and gets his biggest stage this Saturday at USC. With another big performance and a Stanford win it would be really hard to ignore him. And for the first time since Charles Woodson struck the Heisman pose for Michigan a defensive player should get consideration this year. DT Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska, featured in this space all season and LB McClain from Alabama have been game changers on defense and deserve consideration for what they have done for their teams. Either way it is the first time in recent history there is not a clear favorite or group of favorites heading into the final weeks of the season. Tebow or McCoy will most likely win on name recognition and team performance and because voters will watch them play in the Conference Championship games after most other teams have finished the season. It is a shame though that the majority of voters will not have watched guys like Spiller, Gerhart, Keenum from Houston or any number of players worthy of a vote, actually play football. Similar to the rankings, the Heisman is a popularity contest and if your team is not on TV in a prime time slot, then you will be overlooked in favor of the beauty queens from Florida or Texas. Next up Colt McCoy will perform his special talent and then it is on to the evening gown competition.
Week 10 In Review
Premium Lox
Week 10: 2-1
Overall: 15-18
Winners:
Oregon State (+7): 31-14
The Beavers rolled into Berkeley and ended any hope of Cal playing in January. Jahvid Best was knocked out of the game which certainly hurt the Bears’ chances but Oregon State played great to pull the upset and continue their season with faint hopes of a Rose Bowl.
Northwestern (+15.5): 17-10
The Wildcats pulled off the upset over Iowa by sending starting QB Ricky Stanzi to the sideline injured and limiting an Iowa offense that had made many comebacks over the past month. Although I didn’t expect the outright upset Northwestern did and they sent the Hawkeyes reeling into their showdown with Ohio State this week.
Loser:
West Virginia (-17): 17-9
I can’t quite get a read on the Mountaineers as they sometimes look unstoppable on offense and lost on defense and then a game like this occurs and they can’t score much of anything but the defense steps up and dominates. Louisville played them tough but couldn’t get enough points. The Mountaineers still have a shot at the Big East title and need a big win on Friday night in Cincinnati.
Regular Lox
Week 10: 1-2
Overall: 13-18-2
Winner:
Navy (+13): 23-21
Although Notre Dame gave this game away with turnovers and missed field goals the Midshipmen were never trailing and got their second win over the Irish in 3 years. Pretty impressive stuff for Navy and maybe the final nail in Charlie Weis’ coffin. With tough games at Pitt and Stanford remaining the Irish could be looking at a 5 loss season after many were excited for a chance to get back to the BCS.
Losers:
Wisconsin (-11): 31-28
After leading comfortably through most of the half Wisconsin couldn’t put Indiana away while the Hoosiers continued to lose close games. I bet on the Badgers one too many times but they have still been a good source of wins this year.
Penn State (-5): 7-24
Ohio State showed who the best team in the Big 10 is (for a week at least) and avenged the loss to Penn State in Columbus last year. Joe Paterno can’t seem to win the big games while his offense fell silent against good competition again. You can almost bet the only way the Nittany Lions beat a top team is to keep them in single digits.
Upset Specials
Week 10: 2-0 (outright upsets)
Overall: 9-11 (outright upsets)
Kansas State (+3) beat rival Kansas to hold onto the Big 12 North lead and look ahead now to games against Missouri and Nebraska. Oregon State was other upset winner and adds to the list of money line winners.
A few games continue to hurt my chances of getting back to even and eventually to profitability. But November is a long month and with the holidays coming up there is no better time to believe in miracles. While Las Vegas concentrates on the NBA and watching out for rogue referees and the NFL season nears its midway point this is the time of year to find the hidden gems of the college football betting world that nobody else is seeing. Check back for the Saturday Lox of Week 11 and for a rundown of all the best games.
1. Florida – Not that the Gators have been any more impressive, but I believe they have shown enough to jump over Alabama and into the number one spot. The December 5th SEC Championship is already decided and these teams must not slip up before then to insure a #1-#2 matchup for what SEC fans will call the real National Championship game. South Carolina this week may be Florida’s toughest test until then. Spurrier has yet to beat his former school.
2. Alabama – The Tide has shown a few chinks in their armor and without star performances from Mark Ingram and Julio Jones would not be sitting here undefeated. And the performance of DT Terrance Cody in the Tennessee game with the blocked field goals was pretty impressive in itself. Tide fans are calling for Ingram to win the first Heisman in history for the program while Cody and LB Rolando McClain are being mentioned as the best players on that side of the ball.
3. Texas – The Longhorns continued their dominance Saturday vs. UCF and the only teams standing in their way are Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M; then the Big 12 Championship against either Nebraska or Kansas State most likely. The rivalry game on Thanksgiving Day in College Station won’t be easy, the home team is 9-4 in the series since the Big 12 began and A&M upset Colt McCoy and company two years ago.
4. Cincinnati – The Bearcats face a difficult test Friday with West Virginia visiting. We will get to see if the Bearcats defense can run with Noel Devine, Jock Sanders and the athletes on the Mountaineers offense. Coach Brian Kelly is already being rumored to Notre Dame once Charlie Weis’ tenure is up, but for now he has his team playing great behind a new starting QB, while his former starter Tony Pike may see some snaps Friday but as a backup. It is great to be a Bearcat right now.
5. TCU – The last real test for TCU comes in this weekend and Utah will be gunning for a win and the conference championship. The Horned Frogs are led on defense by DE Jerry Hughes, who is in the conversation for postseason awards while his team quietly continues its perfect season. It has been an impressive year for Gary Patterson’s TCU team and the MWC as a whole. Utah’s only loss is to Oregon, BYU beat Oklahoma but lost to Florida State, while TCU has won at Virginia and Clemson. The top tier of this conference I would argue could compete on a week to week basis with the Big 10.
6. Boise State – The Broncos did not impress the national audience that saw them win a close game at Louisiana Tech last Friday night. Kellen Moore played just OK at QB with his interception returned for a TD by Tech a big momentum changer that made the game close. Boise must root for Utah this weekend and for the possible one and two loss BCS contenders to continue falling. That means USC, Penn State, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. Believe it or not because LSU can’t be in the BCS as a third member of the SEC, if Georgia Tech wins the ACC, Cincinnati the Big East, Texas the Big 12 and Oregon in the Pac 10, the only teams left for the 3 at-large spots it would seem are Boise, TCU, USC, Arizona, the trio from the Big 10 (which I hope does not happen with the Big 10’s showing lately), and Pittsburgh. No Big 12 teams would appear worthy and the ACC has little chance with Virginia Tech and Miami faltering. This could be the prime year to test if the BCS would ignore a second undefeated team from outside the major conferences to take a 3-loss Notre Dame, Ohio State or Penn State. We’ll see if those teams falter but it would seem Notre Dame has little chance with 3 losses already. I’ll tell you right now I would rather watch figure skating than see one of those teams in a BCS game over an undefeated Boise. Yes Boise would most likely suffer multiple losses in a major conference but they deserve an opportunity to prove their legitimacy on the big stage as Utah did last year. Let them flame out like Hawaii or step up like Utah. Either way it is more entertaining to see than a mediocre traditional power play uninspired football on the big stage.
7. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets continue to win, although Wake Forest gave them perhaps their toughest win of the year. They survived in OT and only have Duke left to win the ACC Coastal. A rematch with Clemson may be on the horizon in the ACC Championship, a hard fought game earlier won by GT in Atlanta. Nesbitt and Dwyer continue to run teams over in Paul Johnson’s Triple Option offense. The Jackets will be a tough matchup for any team and Duke will have a long week of recuperating after this game whether win or lose. GT remains a favorite to represent the conference in the BCS for the first time.
8. Pittsburgh – Who would have thought the loss to NC State would be so significant to this team. The Panthers have the one trip up in September but have not lost since. Notre Dame, Cincinnati and West Virginia are left on the schedule so time will tell if Dave Wannstedt’s team is for real. RB Dion Lewis may be the best freshman in the land though and he has made the whole offense including QB Bill Stull a lot better. If Pitt wins the Big East or does enough to be in a January Bowl game then you will know Lewis had a great 3 games. It starts with the Irish this Saturday under the lights at Heinz Field with a national audience watching Pittsburgh football. Nobody has said that for a while.
9. Oregon – The best of the two-loss teams I believe, the Ducks got feathered in Palo Alto on Saturday but still stand a good chance at the Rose Bowl. The difference I see in Oregon compared to other two loss teams LSU, Ohio State, Penn State and others is a signature win that the Ducks have. Although the USC game is a bit dulled by the 51 points given up to Stanford, the Ducks have proven to be a force on offense and their defense has just this one blemish. As Chip Kelly said after the loss to Stanford, most teams can’t stop Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck on offense. We’ll see if the Trojans can in the Coliseum this week while the Ducks return home to face ASU before the big game in Tucson.
10. LSU – The only losses suffered by the Bayou Bengals are to the top two teams in the country. That separates them from the Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, Trojans, Hurricanes and others that would like to get back in the top 10. Iowa and Ohio State meet this weekend with the winner the likely conference champion and Rose Bowl representative. LSU has no such big games remaining because of the teams in front of them control the SEC but a trip to Oxford to face Ole Miss in two weeks is a revenge game for last year’s blowout in Baton Rouge. We’ll see if Les Miles can keep his team together after last year’s disappointing regular season finish. They lost to Alabama last year and went on to barely beat Troy and lose to Ole Miss and Arkansas to end the season. Tigers fans will be hoping for a 10 win season and bragging rights over their SEC West rivals.
For Conference Supremacy Look West
The Pac 10 is the highest ranked conference in 4 of the 6 BCS computers and for good reason. I usually don't take much from the computers but this year the play on the field matches what the computers say. The conference may not have national champion contenders like the SEC but top to bottom no conference is more balanced and better. UCLA and Cal went undefeated non-conference, but have struggled mightily against the Pac 10. The Bruins won at Tennessee and beat Kansas State at home yet were 0-5 in the Pac 10 until their win over Washington last week. Tennessee has proven to be a solid SEC team and will make a bowl playing in that conference, while Kansas State leads the Big 12 North for the time being and is a power in the weak Big 12. But neither team could beat a bottom feeder in the Pac 10. Don’t be surprised. The fact is the dominance of USC has overshadowed the Pac 10 as a whole for the entire decade, yet this year programs at Arizona and Stanford have risen from the dead to contend for the Rose Bowl, while the Oregon schools continue to play solid football year in and year out. The only easy win in the Pac 10 is Washington State and since it is the only conference that plays nine games, that means 5 more losses are endured by Pac 10 teams each year than their BCS brethren.
The SEC has the top teams in the country and with 3 National Champions in a row you must beat the SEC to win a championship, but after Florida, Alabama and LSU, the SEC is not impressive. Yes most teams can pull an upset on any given week, and most teams have a standout player that will be a high draft pick, but Tennessee, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Georgia and Auburn, et al. have not been top tier football teams this year and cannot blame the conference schedule. I find it funny that when USC loses to a Washington or Oregon State, the national media say it is another bad loss for the Trojans. But when Florida loses to Ole Miss it is forgiven because the supposed strength of the SEC. To sum up the national obsession with the SEC and show that the facts don’t line up with the hype I stole a quote from Houston Nutt, current Ole Miss and former Arkansas coach in a recent story on the SEC supremacy in Sports Illustrated.
“I watch teams in the other conferences all the time and I think, Boy, I’d like to play them.”
Well Coach Nutt you have in fact played teams from the “other” conferences and unfortunately for your teams the results have not been impressive. Over 5 years at Arkansas and Ole Miss Houston Nutt is 1-6 against other BCS conference schools. Losses to USC and Texas in that span are understandable, but Wake Forest, Wisconsin and Missouri are games the SEC should win if they proclaim to be superior. The fact is experts and SEC fans like to say a middle-to-bottom tier SEC team would win or compete for the title in most other conferences, but that is simply not true. The Pac 10 this year is as good as any conference top to bottom and there really is no legitimate argument to the contrary. The SEC has the most tradition and the most raucous stadiums, but just because 105,000 drunk and crazy Tennessee fans file into Neyland Stadium each Saturday does not make them a better team than a mediocre bunch from the Pac 10 that only draws 30,000 fans.
Heisman Race Still Taking Shape
Mark Ingram of Alabama is the favorite on ESPN while Tebow and McCoy are duking it out on other websites and in the national media. I fail to understand how these two still are favorites when their numbers don’t match up to last year’s stats and in the games that mattered most, both QBs played sub par. McCoy has played better since the Oklahoma performance where he was absolutely dreadful and any other player would have been left for dead, while Tebow has been just average in their big wins over LSU and Tennessee. McCoy is getting the sympathy vote because many thought he deserved the award last year but I would ask any voter to watch the Sooners game again before they fill out that ballot. Jordan Shipley would actually get my vote for MVP of Texas as he has been a force on special teams and McCoy’s best weapon on offense. While Tebow gets the tough guy vote for coming back strong after his concussion I still think that he has not been the best player in college football this year.
If I had a vote today neither one would be in my top 3. Mark Ingram deserves heavy consideration, CJ Spiller from Clemson has been phenomenal returning 4 kicks for TDs and carrying the offense on the ground, while Toby Gerhart from Stanford is second in the nation in rushing yards with 16 TDs. Hard to argue with that trio of running backs. Gerhart has done it week in and week out and gets his biggest stage this Saturday at USC. With another big performance and a Stanford win it would be really hard to ignore him. And for the first time since Charles Woodson struck the Heisman pose for Michigan a defensive player should get consideration this year. DT Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska, featured in this space all season and LB McClain from Alabama have been game changers on defense and deserve consideration for what they have done for their teams. Either way it is the first time in recent history there is not a clear favorite or group of favorites heading into the final weeks of the season. Tebow or McCoy will most likely win on name recognition and team performance and because voters will watch them play in the Conference Championship games after most other teams have finished the season. It is a shame though that the majority of voters will not have watched guys like Spiller, Gerhart, Keenum from Houston or any number of players worthy of a vote, actually play football. Similar to the rankings, the Heisman is a popularity contest and if your team is not on TV in a prime time slot, then you will be overlooked in favor of the beauty queens from Florida or Texas. Next up Colt McCoy will perform his special talent and then it is on to the evening gown competition.
Week 10 In Review
Premium Lox
Week 10: 2-1
Overall: 15-18
Winners:
Oregon State (+7): 31-14
The Beavers rolled into Berkeley and ended any hope of Cal playing in January. Jahvid Best was knocked out of the game which certainly hurt the Bears’ chances but Oregon State played great to pull the upset and continue their season with faint hopes of a Rose Bowl.
Northwestern (+15.5): 17-10
The Wildcats pulled off the upset over Iowa by sending starting QB Ricky Stanzi to the sideline injured and limiting an Iowa offense that had made many comebacks over the past month. Although I didn’t expect the outright upset Northwestern did and they sent the Hawkeyes reeling into their showdown with Ohio State this week.
Loser:
West Virginia (-17): 17-9
I can’t quite get a read on the Mountaineers as they sometimes look unstoppable on offense and lost on defense and then a game like this occurs and they can’t score much of anything but the defense steps up and dominates. Louisville played them tough but couldn’t get enough points. The Mountaineers still have a shot at the Big East title and need a big win on Friday night in Cincinnati.
Regular Lox
Week 10: 1-2
Overall: 13-18-2
Winner:
Navy (+13): 23-21
Although Notre Dame gave this game away with turnovers and missed field goals the Midshipmen were never trailing and got their second win over the Irish in 3 years. Pretty impressive stuff for Navy and maybe the final nail in Charlie Weis’ coffin. With tough games at Pitt and Stanford remaining the Irish could be looking at a 5 loss season after many were excited for a chance to get back to the BCS.
Losers:
Wisconsin (-11): 31-28
After leading comfortably through most of the half Wisconsin couldn’t put Indiana away while the Hoosiers continued to lose close games. I bet on the Badgers one too many times but they have still been a good source of wins this year.
Penn State (-5): 7-24
Ohio State showed who the best team in the Big 10 is (for a week at least) and avenged the loss to Penn State in Columbus last year. Joe Paterno can’t seem to win the big games while his offense fell silent against good competition again. You can almost bet the only way the Nittany Lions beat a top team is to keep them in single digits.
Upset Specials
Week 10: 2-0 (outright upsets)
Overall: 9-11 (outright upsets)
Kansas State (+3) beat rival Kansas to hold onto the Big 12 North lead and look ahead now to games against Missouri and Nebraska. Oregon State was other upset winner and adds to the list of money line winners.
A few games continue to hurt my chances of getting back to even and eventually to profitability. But November is a long month and with the holidays coming up there is no better time to believe in miracles. While Las Vegas concentrates on the NBA and watching out for rogue referees and the NFL season nears its midway point this is the time of year to find the hidden gems of the college football betting world that nobody else is seeing. Check back for the Saturday Lox of Week 11 and for a rundown of all the best games.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Week 10 College Football
Saturday Lox Week 10
The first weekend of November brings the first of what is many conference deciding games. Champions will be separated from the contenders starting this weekend in Tuscaloosa with LSU and Alabama playing what is billed as the SEC West title game. Up North the Big 10 will play an elimination game of sorts when one-loss foes Ohio State and Penn State meet in Happy Valley. With a win here the Buckeyes have a chance to beat Iowa and claim the Big 10. Penn State needs to win here and hope they earn a BCS berth as a one-loss team.
A great rivalry is also renewed in Lincoln, Nebraska when the home team welcomes Oklahoma. In what used to be the Big 8’s greatest rivalry, the Cornhuskers look to stop a losing streak that dates back to 2001. Both teams have a lot to play for even with three losses each, with Nebraska trying to win the Big 12 North and the Sooners still a factor in the South. Should be a great game under the lights in Lincoln.
Farther out West is another test awaiting Oregon. Who would have thought the Ducks would be sitting pretty as Rose Bowl favorites after the week 1 implosion in Boise. But here they are, undefeated and ranked 8th in the BCS with only Arizona within a game of their lead. But Stanford has been looking forward to this game since a last second loss in Eugene last year and has a week to prepare (or more precisely a week of nightmares watching the USC film) for this home game. The last time Oregon won the Pac 10 in 2001 the only loss Joey Harrington and company endured was to Stanford after an onside kick led to a Cardinal comeback. That loss cost the Ducks a chance at the National Title game that season. Could history repeat itself this week and Stanford ruin the Ducks’ season once again. Yours truly will be in Palo Alto to find out. I expect a great offensive game and hopefully Stanford makes it one for the ages.
Premium Lox
Oregon State (+7) @ California
While the Bears have played well since the Oregon-USC losses, they barely got by ASU last week while the Beavers beat UCLA. I think the Beavers are equally as good and this game could go either way. Jahvid Best and Jacquizz Rodgers will be fun to watch on offense and eventually the overall talent of the Beavers will be the difference. PICK: Oregon State 34 – Cal 31
West Virginia (-17.5) vs. Louisville
With the Mountaineers coming off their first loss of Big East play to South Florida I expect them to be hungry and focused. Louisville has lost big to the good teams on their schedule and don’t have much left to play for. Jarrett Brown will throw all over the field and Noel Devine will run free and West Virginia should win easily. PICK: 35 – 13
Northwestern (+15.5) @ Iowa
Yes the Hawkeyes find ways to win each and every week. But after last week’s six turnover debacle they won’t be throwing the ball all over the field and will look to play ball control offense as usual. Northwestern has a knack for playing close games and Iowa has not blown anyone out this year. I see a low scoring game with Iowa holding on for their tenth win but Northwestern staying close. PICK: Iowa 23 – Northwestern 14
Regular Lox
Penn State (-5) vs. Ohio State
Terrelle Pryor returns to his home state and the school he shunned to go to Columbus. Penn State QB Darryl Clark is playing tremendous football and could be the Big 10 Player of the Year. The Nittany Lions will try to beat Ohio State for the second year in a row and this time have the home field edge, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record. I expect a close, low-scoring game for 3 quarters and Penn State pulling away in the fourth quarter behind the dual threat Clark. The defense will ultimately be the difference though as Pryor and company will struggle putting drives together and will be limited in big plays. PICK: Penn State 23 – Ohio State 13
Navy (+13) @ Notre Dame
The Midshipmen travel to South bend off a tough loss to Temple. They beat the Irish two years ago and made a big comeback before falling last year. Navy gets its QB Ricky Dobbs back for this game and he will make a big difference in leading the spread offense. Notre Dame will put up a lot of points but will give them up as well. Navy is an amazing 8-0 ATS at Notre Dame Stadium including the upset two years ago. Notre Dame also has not covered a spread as a favorite since the opening week win over Nevada. I like those odds and will take Navy to cover and keep the streak of Irish thrilling games intact. PICK: Notre Dame 37 – Navy 31
Wisconsin (-11) @ Indiana
I’m going with the Badgers two weeks in a row as I think this team is on a mission to prove the losses to Ohio State and Iowa were on them. Indiana had its own chance at the upset at Iowa last week but fell apart in the final period and lost bad. It was a demoralizing loss for a young, rebuilding program and they might not be focused enough to stop the bruising attack the Badgers will bring into Bloomington. I expect a lot of rushing yards from Wisconsin with Indiana not able to keep up on either side of the ball. PICK: Wisconsin 35 – Indiana 13
Upset Special
Kansas State (+3) over Kansas
I like Kansas State at home over a Jayhawk team that is reeling. Kansas State leads the Big 12 North and has a chance to take a commanding advantage with an upset here and a Nebraska loss to Oklahoma. This game might not show up on the national radar but nothing is bigger in Kansas right now. A rivalry dominated by Kansas State over the years but recently by Mark Mangino and Kansas, we’ll see if Bill Snyder brings a win back to Manhattan, KS.
The first weekend of November brings the first of what is many conference deciding games. Champions will be separated from the contenders starting this weekend in Tuscaloosa with LSU and Alabama playing what is billed as the SEC West title game. Up North the Big 10 will play an elimination game of sorts when one-loss foes Ohio State and Penn State meet in Happy Valley. With a win here the Buckeyes have a chance to beat Iowa and claim the Big 10. Penn State needs to win here and hope they earn a BCS berth as a one-loss team.
A great rivalry is also renewed in Lincoln, Nebraska when the home team welcomes Oklahoma. In what used to be the Big 8’s greatest rivalry, the Cornhuskers look to stop a losing streak that dates back to 2001. Both teams have a lot to play for even with three losses each, with Nebraska trying to win the Big 12 North and the Sooners still a factor in the South. Should be a great game under the lights in Lincoln.
Farther out West is another test awaiting Oregon. Who would have thought the Ducks would be sitting pretty as Rose Bowl favorites after the week 1 implosion in Boise. But here they are, undefeated and ranked 8th in the BCS with only Arizona within a game of their lead. But Stanford has been looking forward to this game since a last second loss in Eugene last year and has a week to prepare (or more precisely a week of nightmares watching the USC film) for this home game. The last time Oregon won the Pac 10 in 2001 the only loss Joey Harrington and company endured was to Stanford after an onside kick led to a Cardinal comeback. That loss cost the Ducks a chance at the National Title game that season. Could history repeat itself this week and Stanford ruin the Ducks’ season once again. Yours truly will be in Palo Alto to find out. I expect a great offensive game and hopefully Stanford makes it one for the ages.
Premium Lox
Oregon State (+7) @ California
While the Bears have played well since the Oregon-USC losses, they barely got by ASU last week while the Beavers beat UCLA. I think the Beavers are equally as good and this game could go either way. Jahvid Best and Jacquizz Rodgers will be fun to watch on offense and eventually the overall talent of the Beavers will be the difference. PICK: Oregon State 34 – Cal 31
West Virginia (-17.5) vs. Louisville
With the Mountaineers coming off their first loss of Big East play to South Florida I expect them to be hungry and focused. Louisville has lost big to the good teams on their schedule and don’t have much left to play for. Jarrett Brown will throw all over the field and Noel Devine will run free and West Virginia should win easily. PICK: 35 – 13
Northwestern (+15.5) @ Iowa
Yes the Hawkeyes find ways to win each and every week. But after last week’s six turnover debacle they won’t be throwing the ball all over the field and will look to play ball control offense as usual. Northwestern has a knack for playing close games and Iowa has not blown anyone out this year. I see a low scoring game with Iowa holding on for their tenth win but Northwestern staying close. PICK: Iowa 23 – Northwestern 14
Regular Lox
Penn State (-5) vs. Ohio State
Terrelle Pryor returns to his home state and the school he shunned to go to Columbus. Penn State QB Darryl Clark is playing tremendous football and could be the Big 10 Player of the Year. The Nittany Lions will try to beat Ohio State for the second year in a row and this time have the home field edge, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record. I expect a close, low-scoring game for 3 quarters and Penn State pulling away in the fourth quarter behind the dual threat Clark. The defense will ultimately be the difference though as Pryor and company will struggle putting drives together and will be limited in big plays. PICK: Penn State 23 – Ohio State 13
Navy (+13) @ Notre Dame
The Midshipmen travel to South bend off a tough loss to Temple. They beat the Irish two years ago and made a big comeback before falling last year. Navy gets its QB Ricky Dobbs back for this game and he will make a big difference in leading the spread offense. Notre Dame will put up a lot of points but will give them up as well. Navy is an amazing 8-0 ATS at Notre Dame Stadium including the upset two years ago. Notre Dame also has not covered a spread as a favorite since the opening week win over Nevada. I like those odds and will take Navy to cover and keep the streak of Irish thrilling games intact. PICK: Notre Dame 37 – Navy 31
Wisconsin (-11) @ Indiana
I’m going with the Badgers two weeks in a row as I think this team is on a mission to prove the losses to Ohio State and Iowa were on them. Indiana had its own chance at the upset at Iowa last week but fell apart in the final period and lost bad. It was a demoralizing loss for a young, rebuilding program and they might not be focused enough to stop the bruising attack the Badgers will bring into Bloomington. I expect a lot of rushing yards from Wisconsin with Indiana not able to keep up on either side of the ball. PICK: Wisconsin 35 – Indiana 13
Upset Special
Kansas State (+3) over Kansas
I like Kansas State at home over a Jayhawk team that is reeling. Kansas State leads the Big 12 North and has a chance to take a commanding advantage with an upset here and a Nebraska loss to Oklahoma. This game might not show up on the national radar but nothing is bigger in Kansas right now. A rivalry dominated by Kansas State over the years but recently by Mark Mangino and Kansas, we’ll see if Bill Snyder brings a win back to Manhattan, KS.
Week 9 in Review
Two teams made the biggest statements in week 9, Oregon beating up USC and Texas suffocating Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Below are my top 10 teams with the Trojans being knocked out and LSU entering the rankings before their showdown in Tuscaloosa.
1. Alabama – The Tide stays at the top for now, but with the Bayou Bengals in town for the SEC West game of the year they will have to prove their worth once again.
2. Florida –The Gators are making more noise off the field than on, with Urban Meyer being fined for criticizing the officials and the SuspensionGate with LB Brandon Spikes. What exactly was the tipping point for every scandal being given a cute nickname ending in “Gate”? Sorry to further the nonsense.
3. Texas – It took some time but the Longhorns have their groove back and look to be on their way to the Big 12 title. They will be at least TD favorites for every game left on the schedule and unless a team from the Big 12 North steps up the Longhorns might have the best road to the BCS Championship game in Pasadena.
4. Cincinnati – What else is new for Cincinnati as they continue to roll over the Big East with a backup QB. They still have to get by West Virginia and Pitt, and this week against UCONN is no easy task.
5. TCU – The Horned Frogs have the game at Utah circled as that seems to be their only bump on their way to their first BCS berth. Utah will be plenty hungry themselves as their only loss of the year was at Oregon, which looks pretty darn good right now.
6. Boise State – A PR firm is now the biggest backers of the Broncos’ BCS dreams. Not sure how they will help their strength of schedule and computer rankings though. It is a sad day in college football when this is making news.
7. Iowa – What can you say about Iowa after watching their comeback win over Indiana last week? They sure don’t look like an undefeated team marching toward a national title. But the eyes can deceive and the Hawkeyes keep winning so they stay above the one-loss teams. I can’t see this team staying undefeated though, so their best hope for a Rose Bowl berth is Penn State beating the Buckeyes this week and winning the tiebreaker over PSU.
8. Oregon –The Ducks made a huge statement to the nation and the Pac 10 on Halloween. It was an astounding sight to see USC so thoroughly beat up and almost quitting on the game. The Ducks though have tough games remaining at Stanford and Arizona and the Civil War against Oregon State. One loss is reasonable and still would give them a good chance at the Rose Bowl.
9. Georgia Tech –The Yellow Jackets have proven to be by far the best of the ACC. Their lone loss was to Miami on an early Thursday game on the road. Their Triple Option offense is piling up points on good defenses and the expectations are now ACC title and BCS berth.
10. LSU - The Tigers have a shot to upset Alabama and earn the chance at a rematch with Florida in the SEC title. It would not be surprising to see Les Miles back in a BCS game if they can stop Mark Ingram and the Tide offense and let Jordan Jefferson lead the way for his offense.
Saturday Lox Week 9 in Review
It was a tough week for my Lox as a good morning, 2-0 with covers by Wisconsin and Cincinnati, turned ugly in the afternoon with 5 losses, and even the big upset in Eugene that I picked couldn’t help the gloomy Saturday it was on Halloween.
Premium Lox
Week 9: 1-2
Overall: 13-17
Cincinnati (-15): 28-7. Winner. Cinci got lucky to cover with a botched field goal ending in a TD.
Miami (-7): 28-27. Loser. Miami never was over the spread in this comeback win over Wake Forest.
Tennessee vs. South Carolina (Under 42.5): 31-14. Loser. A late field goal doomed the pick.
Regular Lox:
Week 9: 1-3
Overall: 12-16-2
Wisconsin (-7): 37-0. Winner. This one was never in doubt as Purdue did not put up a fight.
Oklahoma State (+9.5): 14-41. Loser. The Longhorns destroyed the Cowboys in this big game in Stillwater.
Kentucky (-4): 24-31. Loser. Kentucky got shut out after leading by a TD at halftime in this loss to Mississippi State.
Central Michigan (+6.5): 6-31. Loser. Central Michigan couldn’t get anything going after leading 6-3 in the first quarter.
Upset Specials
Week 9: 1-1
Overall: 7-11
Oregon pulled the upset in the biggest Pac 10 game of the year to get the money line win, but Colorado was not as fortunate as the underdog versus Missouri, as they were thoroughly beaten from the start in a blowout.
Now onto next week and a new month with plenty of season-changing games ahead in college football.
1. Alabama – The Tide stays at the top for now, but with the Bayou Bengals in town for the SEC West game of the year they will have to prove their worth once again.
2. Florida –The Gators are making more noise off the field than on, with Urban Meyer being fined for criticizing the officials and the SuspensionGate with LB Brandon Spikes. What exactly was the tipping point for every scandal being given a cute nickname ending in “Gate”? Sorry to further the nonsense.
3. Texas – It took some time but the Longhorns have their groove back and look to be on their way to the Big 12 title. They will be at least TD favorites for every game left on the schedule and unless a team from the Big 12 North steps up the Longhorns might have the best road to the BCS Championship game in Pasadena.
4. Cincinnati – What else is new for Cincinnati as they continue to roll over the Big East with a backup QB. They still have to get by West Virginia and Pitt, and this week against UCONN is no easy task.
5. TCU – The Horned Frogs have the game at Utah circled as that seems to be their only bump on their way to their first BCS berth. Utah will be plenty hungry themselves as their only loss of the year was at Oregon, which looks pretty darn good right now.
6. Boise State – A PR firm is now the biggest backers of the Broncos’ BCS dreams. Not sure how they will help their strength of schedule and computer rankings though. It is a sad day in college football when this is making news.
7. Iowa – What can you say about Iowa after watching their comeback win over Indiana last week? They sure don’t look like an undefeated team marching toward a national title. But the eyes can deceive and the Hawkeyes keep winning so they stay above the one-loss teams. I can’t see this team staying undefeated though, so their best hope for a Rose Bowl berth is Penn State beating the Buckeyes this week and winning the tiebreaker over PSU.
8. Oregon –The Ducks made a huge statement to the nation and the Pac 10 on Halloween. It was an astounding sight to see USC so thoroughly beat up and almost quitting on the game. The Ducks though have tough games remaining at Stanford and Arizona and the Civil War against Oregon State. One loss is reasonable and still would give them a good chance at the Rose Bowl.
9. Georgia Tech –The Yellow Jackets have proven to be by far the best of the ACC. Their lone loss was to Miami on an early Thursday game on the road. Their Triple Option offense is piling up points on good defenses and the expectations are now ACC title and BCS berth.
10. LSU - The Tigers have a shot to upset Alabama and earn the chance at a rematch with Florida in the SEC title. It would not be surprising to see Les Miles back in a BCS game if they can stop Mark Ingram and the Tide offense and let Jordan Jefferson lead the way for his offense.
Saturday Lox Week 9 in Review
It was a tough week for my Lox as a good morning, 2-0 with covers by Wisconsin and Cincinnati, turned ugly in the afternoon with 5 losses, and even the big upset in Eugene that I picked couldn’t help the gloomy Saturday it was on Halloween.
Premium Lox
Week 9: 1-2
Overall: 13-17
Cincinnati (-15): 28-7. Winner. Cinci got lucky to cover with a botched field goal ending in a TD.
Miami (-7): 28-27. Loser. Miami never was over the spread in this comeback win over Wake Forest.
Tennessee vs. South Carolina (Under 42.5): 31-14. Loser. A late field goal doomed the pick.
Regular Lox:
Week 9: 1-3
Overall: 12-16-2
Wisconsin (-7): 37-0. Winner. This one was never in doubt as Purdue did not put up a fight.
Oklahoma State (+9.5): 14-41. Loser. The Longhorns destroyed the Cowboys in this big game in Stillwater.
Kentucky (-4): 24-31. Loser. Kentucky got shut out after leading by a TD at halftime in this loss to Mississippi State.
Central Michigan (+6.5): 6-31. Loser. Central Michigan couldn’t get anything going after leading 6-3 in the first quarter.
Upset Specials
Week 9: 1-1
Overall: 7-11
Oregon pulled the upset in the biggest Pac 10 game of the year to get the money line win, but Colorado was not as fortunate as the underdog versus Missouri, as they were thoroughly beaten from the start in a blowout.
Now onto next week and a new month with plenty of season-changing games ahead in college football.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Week 9 College Football
Saturday Lox Week 9
Premium Lox
Cincinnati (-15) @ Syracuse
Miami (-7) @ Wake Forest
South Carolina @ Tennessee (Under 42.5)
Regular Lox
Texas @ Oklahoma State (+9.5) – Game of the Week
Purdue @ Wisconsin (-7)
Mississippi State @ Kentucky (-4)
Central Michigan (+6.5) @ Boston College
Upset Specials
Oregon (+3.5) over USC – Game of the Week
Colorado (+3.5) over Missouri
Premium Lox
Cincinnati (-15) @ Syracuse
Miami (-7) @ Wake Forest
South Carolina @ Tennessee (Under 42.5)
Regular Lox
Texas @ Oklahoma State (+9.5) – Game of the Week
Purdue @ Wisconsin (-7)
Mississippi State @ Kentucky (-4)
Central Michigan (+6.5) @ Boston College
Upset Specials
Oregon (+3.5) over USC – Game of the Week
Colorado (+3.5) over Missouri
Week 8 in Review
College Football Week 9
Week 8 In Review
1. Alabama – Even with the narrow win at home saved by a blocked field goal as time expired the Crimson Tide hold the top spot.
2. Florida – The Gators are not the unstoppable force they were last season but they continue to win and hold the number 2 spot.
3. Cincinnati – The Bearcats continue to roll even with a backup QB. Tough games loom against West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
4. Iowa – QB Ricky Stanzi led a last second TD drive to keep the dream season alive for the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz may have his best chance to bring a national title to Iowa if he can beat Ohio State in Columbus and avoid an upset along the way.
5. Texas – Finally Colt McCoy and the offense showed up in a big way on the road in Missouri. With a win this week at Stillwater, OK the Longhorns will jump up the rankings.
6. TCU – The Horned Frogs were impressive in a blowout win at BYU and now move ahead of Boise State in the quest to make a BCS Bowl.
7. Boise State – The Broncos get dropped through no fault of their own, but such is life in the WAC, which does not impress on a week to week basis. They still have a chance to improve the strength of schedule with games against Nevada and who would have thought Idaho.
8. USC – The Trojans beat Oregon State but gave up 36 points in the process and are clearly not the complete team we are used to seeing. Still talented enough if they put it together to make the National Title game, we will know more after the trip to Eugene this week.
9. Oregon – The Ducks continue to win in all facets of the game. Their defense and special teams carried the team last week until the offense took over in the second half of their blowout win in Seattle.
10. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets keep rolling and were helped greatly with losses by Miami and Virginia Tech last week. They now control their destiny in the ACC.
Saturday Lox Week 8 in Review
Premium Lox
Week 8: 1-2
Overall: 12-15
Winners
Oregon State (+21): 36-42
Oregon State gave USC all they could handle last week. USC led by as many as 19 but never got over the spread and a big fourth quarter by the Beavers made this easy money.
Losers
Auburn (+7.5): 10-31
LSU jumped on Auburn early and made a statement to the rest of the SEC. Auburn is having a tough time after raising expectations with a good non-conference start.
SMU (+16): 15-38
June Jones’ SMU team actually played with Houston despite the final score but 3 turnovers ultimately was the Mustangs downfall. The yardage and first downs were nearly equal.
Regular Lox
Week 8: 2-1
Overall: 11-13-2
Winners:
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Under 42): 14-10
Every SEC game actually went under the total last week as this bet was never in doubt. Both teams dominated with defense and the only surprise was South Carolina having to hang on to get the home win.
Oklahoma State (-9.5): 34-7
The Cowboys got the easy win against an overmatched Baylor team to set up the big game against Texas this week. This game was never in doubt as Oklahoma State continued to play great since the lone loss to Houston.
Loser:
Missouri (+13): 7-41
Texas dominated Missouri in this game as the Longhorns played a complete game for the first time all year. Missouri is now 0-4 in the Big 12.
Upset Special
Week 8: 1-0
Overall: 6-10
Navy (+2): 13-10
The Midshipmen beat Wake Forest without throwing a pass. That’s right zero passes attempted and 338 yards rushing on 64 carries. Navy knows how to win close games and this victory solidified another great season in Annapolis with their sixth win and bowl eligibility.
Week 8 In Review
1. Alabama – Even with the narrow win at home saved by a blocked field goal as time expired the Crimson Tide hold the top spot.
2. Florida – The Gators are not the unstoppable force they were last season but they continue to win and hold the number 2 spot.
3. Cincinnati – The Bearcats continue to roll even with a backup QB. Tough games loom against West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
4. Iowa – QB Ricky Stanzi led a last second TD drive to keep the dream season alive for the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz may have his best chance to bring a national title to Iowa if he can beat Ohio State in Columbus and avoid an upset along the way.
5. Texas – Finally Colt McCoy and the offense showed up in a big way on the road in Missouri. With a win this week at Stillwater, OK the Longhorns will jump up the rankings.
6. TCU – The Horned Frogs were impressive in a blowout win at BYU and now move ahead of Boise State in the quest to make a BCS Bowl.
7. Boise State – The Broncos get dropped through no fault of their own, but such is life in the WAC, which does not impress on a week to week basis. They still have a chance to improve the strength of schedule with games against Nevada and who would have thought Idaho.
8. USC – The Trojans beat Oregon State but gave up 36 points in the process and are clearly not the complete team we are used to seeing. Still talented enough if they put it together to make the National Title game, we will know more after the trip to Eugene this week.
9. Oregon – The Ducks continue to win in all facets of the game. Their defense and special teams carried the team last week until the offense took over in the second half of their blowout win in Seattle.
10. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets keep rolling and were helped greatly with losses by Miami and Virginia Tech last week. They now control their destiny in the ACC.
Saturday Lox Week 8 in Review
Premium Lox
Week 8: 1-2
Overall: 12-15
Winners
Oregon State (+21): 36-42
Oregon State gave USC all they could handle last week. USC led by as many as 19 but never got over the spread and a big fourth quarter by the Beavers made this easy money.
Losers
Auburn (+7.5): 10-31
LSU jumped on Auburn early and made a statement to the rest of the SEC. Auburn is having a tough time after raising expectations with a good non-conference start.
SMU (+16): 15-38
June Jones’ SMU team actually played with Houston despite the final score but 3 turnovers ultimately was the Mustangs downfall. The yardage and first downs were nearly equal.
Regular Lox
Week 8: 2-1
Overall: 11-13-2
Winners:
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Under 42): 14-10
Every SEC game actually went under the total last week as this bet was never in doubt. Both teams dominated with defense and the only surprise was South Carolina having to hang on to get the home win.
Oklahoma State (-9.5): 34-7
The Cowboys got the easy win against an overmatched Baylor team to set up the big game against Texas this week. This game was never in doubt as Oklahoma State continued to play great since the lone loss to Houston.
Loser:
Missouri (+13): 7-41
Texas dominated Missouri in this game as the Longhorns played a complete game for the first time all year. Missouri is now 0-4 in the Big 12.
Upset Special
Week 8: 1-0
Overall: 6-10
Navy (+2): 13-10
The Midshipmen beat Wake Forest without throwing a pass. That’s right zero passes attempted and 338 yards rushing on 64 carries. Navy knows how to win close games and this victory solidified another great season in Annapolis with their sixth win and bowl eligibility.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Week 8
Saturday Lox of the Week
Premium Lox
Oregon State (+21) @ USC
Even with the revenge factor from last year’s upset in Corvallis I don’t think USC can cover 3 touchdowns against a talented OSU team that has been playing good football of late. The Trojans should get the home win to set up a huge Halloween trip to Eugene (assuming the Ducks hold up their end) but I’ll take the points and hope the Beavers get great performances from Jacquizz and James Rodgers. Oregon State is an amazing 8-0 against the spread in October over the last two years. Go Beavers. PICK: USC 31 – Oregon State 20
Auburn (+7.5) @ LSU
This is LSU’s first game since their streak of home wins at night was shattered by Florida two weeks ago. This one is also under the lights and Auburn is off two conference losses to Arkansas and Kentucky. The intangibles favor LSU in this game but I think Auburn comes to play and gets the offense going again after a shaky performance last week. They may not have enough to pull the upset in Baton Rouge but the Bayou Bengals have not blown any team out yet including Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Look for a close game with Auburn a real chance at the upset if they run well and take care of the football. PICK: LSU 24 – Auburn 23
SMU (+17) @ Houston
SMU is coming off a tough OT loss to Navy while Houston has bounced back for two straight wins after their BCS hopes were dashed by UTEP. I like SMU to make this a close game as Houston’s defense is almost as bad as their offense is good. Case Keenum is quietly mounting a Heisman campaign behind center for Houston and will continue to play well in this one, but I fully expect SMU to score enough points to keep this within two touchdowns. June Jones is transforming what was a languishing program and his teams always play well in marquee games. This is the biggest foe the Mustangs will face. Don’t take a bathroom break for this game as there will be a lot of points and a lot of yardage. PICK: Houston 45 – SMU 34
Regular Lox
Texas @ Missouri (+13)
I have not been high on Texas at all this season and here is where I put my money where my mouth is. Missouri has lost two in a row in the Big 12 in disappointing fashion, first the 4th quarter meltdown to Nebraska and last week to Oklahoma State. This will be a big test to see if Gary Pinkel has his team rebuilding or reloading. Texas will face a strong opponent on the road for the first time and will need to correct their problems on offense in a tough environment. The good news for Missouri is they outgained the Cowboys last week and without the turnovers over the last two weeks could be undefeated. Texas has at least two turnovers in every game but Wyoming. This game may come down to which defense forces the mistakes and which offense takes advantage. I think Missouri has the athletes to match up with the Longhorns and unless Colt McCoy reverts to last year’s form I see this game being played in single digits one way or the other. PICK: Texas 23 – Missouri 17
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Under 42)
South Carolina was upset by the Commodores last year on the road and will be out for revenge in this game. Steve Spurrier’s defense has been the most consistent unit all year and should have a chance at their best game against a weak offense. I expect the Gamecocks to jump on Vanderbilt early and coast to a low scoring victory. There is usually an easy under in the SEC each week and this could be the matchup. It is a low total but I don’t expect Vanderbilt to get to double digits in Columbia, in fact Vanderbilt has hit the under in their last 11 games played in October. PICK: South Carolina 27 – Vanderbilt 6
Oklahoma State (-9.5) @ Baylor
The Cowboys will play their third game without All-American WR Dez Bryant because of eligibility issues and it is uncertain if RB Kendal Hunter will come back from his ankle injury. Still the Cowboys have won every game without their two stars thanks to QB Zac Robinson and some talented replacements. Baylor’s high hopes were brought back to reality after the crushing injury to QB Robert Griffin, possibly the top QB in the Big 12 in the future. But without him Baylor has struggled and will have more trouble with a motivated team coming into Waco this week. The injuries will keep the Cowboys focused this week despite the big game on deck vs. Texas. The Cowboys are 10-3 against the spread vs. Baylor since 1992 and 5-2 in Waco. PICK: Oklahoma State 34 – Baylor 17
Upset Special
Navy (+2) vs. Wake Forest
These two teams met in the EagleBank Bowl (what ever happened to a normal bowl name) last year when Wake Forest won and covered but also matched up in the regular season when Navy got the win as double digit underdogs. I expect the Midshipmen will find a way to win behind a strong running game that has bothered Wake Forest all year. Navy will be happy to be home after two straight weeks in Texas while Wake has been awful on the road in losses to Boston College and Clemson. PICK: Navy 24 – Wake Forest 20
Premium Lox
Oregon State (+21) @ USC
Even with the revenge factor from last year’s upset in Corvallis I don’t think USC can cover 3 touchdowns against a talented OSU team that has been playing good football of late. The Trojans should get the home win to set up a huge Halloween trip to Eugene (assuming the Ducks hold up their end) but I’ll take the points and hope the Beavers get great performances from Jacquizz and James Rodgers. Oregon State is an amazing 8-0 against the spread in October over the last two years. Go Beavers. PICK: USC 31 – Oregon State 20
Auburn (+7.5) @ LSU
This is LSU’s first game since their streak of home wins at night was shattered by Florida two weeks ago. This one is also under the lights and Auburn is off two conference losses to Arkansas and Kentucky. The intangibles favor LSU in this game but I think Auburn comes to play and gets the offense going again after a shaky performance last week. They may not have enough to pull the upset in Baton Rouge but the Bayou Bengals have not blown any team out yet including Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Look for a close game with Auburn a real chance at the upset if they run well and take care of the football. PICK: LSU 24 – Auburn 23
SMU (+17) @ Houston
SMU is coming off a tough OT loss to Navy while Houston has bounced back for two straight wins after their BCS hopes were dashed by UTEP. I like SMU to make this a close game as Houston’s defense is almost as bad as their offense is good. Case Keenum is quietly mounting a Heisman campaign behind center for Houston and will continue to play well in this one, but I fully expect SMU to score enough points to keep this within two touchdowns. June Jones is transforming what was a languishing program and his teams always play well in marquee games. This is the biggest foe the Mustangs will face. Don’t take a bathroom break for this game as there will be a lot of points and a lot of yardage. PICK: Houston 45 – SMU 34
Regular Lox
Texas @ Missouri (+13)
I have not been high on Texas at all this season and here is where I put my money where my mouth is. Missouri has lost two in a row in the Big 12 in disappointing fashion, first the 4th quarter meltdown to Nebraska and last week to Oklahoma State. This will be a big test to see if Gary Pinkel has his team rebuilding or reloading. Texas will face a strong opponent on the road for the first time and will need to correct their problems on offense in a tough environment. The good news for Missouri is they outgained the Cowboys last week and without the turnovers over the last two weeks could be undefeated. Texas has at least two turnovers in every game but Wyoming. This game may come down to which defense forces the mistakes and which offense takes advantage. I think Missouri has the athletes to match up with the Longhorns and unless Colt McCoy reverts to last year’s form I see this game being played in single digits one way or the other. PICK: Texas 23 – Missouri 17
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Under 42)
South Carolina was upset by the Commodores last year on the road and will be out for revenge in this game. Steve Spurrier’s defense has been the most consistent unit all year and should have a chance at their best game against a weak offense. I expect the Gamecocks to jump on Vanderbilt early and coast to a low scoring victory. There is usually an easy under in the SEC each week and this could be the matchup. It is a low total but I don’t expect Vanderbilt to get to double digits in Columbia, in fact Vanderbilt has hit the under in their last 11 games played in October. PICK: South Carolina 27 – Vanderbilt 6
Oklahoma State (-9.5) @ Baylor
The Cowboys will play their third game without All-American WR Dez Bryant because of eligibility issues and it is uncertain if RB Kendal Hunter will come back from his ankle injury. Still the Cowboys have won every game without their two stars thanks to QB Zac Robinson and some talented replacements. Baylor’s high hopes were brought back to reality after the crushing injury to QB Robert Griffin, possibly the top QB in the Big 12 in the future. But without him Baylor has struggled and will have more trouble with a motivated team coming into Waco this week. The injuries will keep the Cowboys focused this week despite the big game on deck vs. Texas. The Cowboys are 10-3 against the spread vs. Baylor since 1992 and 5-2 in Waco. PICK: Oklahoma State 34 – Baylor 17
Upset Special
Navy (+2) vs. Wake Forest
These two teams met in the EagleBank Bowl (what ever happened to a normal bowl name) last year when Wake Forest won and covered but also matched up in the regular season when Navy got the win as double digit underdogs. I expect the Midshipmen will find a way to win behind a strong running game that has bothered Wake Forest all year. Navy will be happy to be home after two straight weeks in Texas while Wake has been awful on the road in losses to Boston College and Clemson. PICK: Navy 24 – Wake Forest 20
