College Football 2010 Week 4
Overall Record – 5-5-1
The Saturday Lox is even money heading into the final weekend of September. After a week off to spend some time with the nephew in sunny Seattle (not so for the Huskies last weekend though), all 9 pounds of him (rumor had it Steve Sarkisian had an associate knocking on the door the next day to start recruitment), it is time to get back to business and make some money before the calendar turns. In commemoration of Jackson Robert, a combining of the two greatest Confederate Generals in the Civil War, Andrew “Stonewall” Jackson and Robert E. Lee, I decided to start the Lox with a few matchups where you’ll still spot Old Dixie flying from the back of a pickup and there is always enough Whisky drinking to turn back time.
Georgia (-1) @ Mississippi State
Mark Richt brings the Georgia Bulldogs to Starksville off a tough loss to Arkansas and 0-2 in the SEC. Georgia’s record is startling off 2 consecutive losses, 13-1 ATS and they will be desperate for a win with rumors swirling about Richt’s job security. Miss. State is also 0-2 with a tough home loss to Auburn and a crushing road loss to LSU last week. I believe UGA is the better team and RB Washaun Ealey will be the difference. Georgia fans will be happily partying with their Red hats and Red Polos well into the night.
Alabama (-7) @ Arkansas
The Crimson Tide takes their winning streak on the road against #10 Arkansas. The Razorbacks barely survived Athens, GA last week but come in confident and with a hot hand in Ryan Mallet at QB. Alabama has a prolific offense themselves and will prove to be too much with the tandem of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson in the backfield and McElroy throwing to Julio Jones. The defense will prove to be the difference with Alabama forcing turnovers and sealing their SEC opener.
North Carolina (-2) @ Rutgers
Sticking with the southern theme, the Tar Heels travel north to New Jersey. UNC has had two tough losses, LSU to start and Georgia Tech last week, not to mention the suspensions and eligibility issues. Rutgers has struggled in two wins against lowly competition so they will take a big step up in talent on Saturday. Expect the Tar Heels to either take some frustration out on the Scarlet Knights, or bring a lackluster effort. Butch Davis usually has his team prepared and with the announcement this week finalizing the player issues, maybe the team can get back to normal. UNC was highly thought of in preseason so they have the talent to begin to bounce back this season.
Oregon State @ Boise State – Over 56
I learned my lesson to never bet against Boise after they came back and beat Va Tech to open the season. Chris Peterson just seems to know how to win every big game. So even though I think the spread, 18, is too high, I vowed I won’t lose money betting Boise’s opponent. So next best thing, take the over. Oregon State has much talent with the Rodgers Brothers and they can definitely put enough points up to scare the Broncos. I doubt they will stop them though, considering Louisville put 28 on the Beavers in Corvallis last week. Take the over and enjoy the game.
Stanford (-4.5) @ Notre Dame
Something’s gotta give in this game. The Irish have lost 10 straight to ranked opponents, while Stanford has lost 7 straight in South Bend. Stanford is playing at a high level and for the first time in memory has a defense that can hold its own. They will need to on Saturday as Dayne Crist will attempt to throw the ball to victory. The Cardinal is more talented and better coached and will be ready to end the losing streak under Touchdown Jesus. Harbaugh deserves national recognition for his team and no better way to get noticed than on NBC. This could be Andrew Luck’s coming out party, as we saw Denard Robinson light up ND with his arm and legs, look for Luck to do the same.
California @ Arizona (-7)
These teams ended last week feeling very different than they started. Cal had two blowout wins before stumbling in Reno as Nevada ran up the score in a Friday night massacre. Arizona entered the weekend looking for legitimacy and found it after upsetting Iowa. Zona Zoo had to sweat out a late comeback by the Hawkeyes before Nick Foles put together the game winning drive. Arizona is a tremendous home team and with revenge on their minds after Cal upset their Rose Bowl chances a year ago, I believe the Wildcats will send the Bears home limping. Cal’s strength is their running game and Arizona has proven to be stingy with their run defense, if that continues only Arizona could beat themselves.
Oregon (-13) @ Arizona State
Up the road in Tempe, ASU is coming off a great effort in a loss to Wisconsin. Nobody gave them much of a chance on the road in Big 10 country, but a blocked extra point was the difference between a loss and OT. But ASU matches up with the Badgers, not so much against the Ducks. Oregon will look to continue their run in the Pac 10 after last year’s Rose Bowl trip and they should get it done this week no problem. Darron Thomas, LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner are as scary a triumvirate in the country and will be on full display under the desert sun. ASU just can’t score enough points to stay in a game with the Ducks.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Saturday, September 11, 2010
College Football 2010 Week 2
Week 1 Record – 2-3-1 ATS
Covers: Kentucky (-3), Western Michigan (+24.5, glad I had that extra half point)
Losses: Northwestern (-4), LSU (-8), BYU-UW (Over 57)
Push: Purdue (+11)
Although a 2-3-1 record won’t lead to bankruptcy court it doesn’t make you any money either. Needing a half point for a W. Michigan cover and watching an ugly Purdue-Notre Dame game end in a push left me in a bad mood heading into the evening. LSU taking a 30-10 lead brought out the smiles and laughs, but in typical Les Miles fashion the Tigers didn’t hold up well late in the game and almost blew the entire game. I wish they did, why should Miles be able to say “at least we got a win,” when bettors around the nation have to stomach their lackluster effort. Anytime the Tigers want to take the field in the second half I’ll be ready to watch.
Week 2 promises to bring more excitement and definite big money games to Vegas. The slate will keep the sports books busy from morning until night. Here are the Saturday Lox for week 2 and some commentary on the other best games of the week.
Georgia @ South Carolina (-3)
This game would be much easier to bet if it was under 3, but I believe this is the year Steve Spurrier takes some wins away from the Florida-Georgia domination of the SEC West. They had a good start on the opening Thursday, but have the cloud of suspicion around campus because of NCAA investigations. Georgia has its own problems with top talent WR AJ Green suspended the first month of the season for selling a game worn jersey on Ebay. Shouldn’t either A) a player better conceal selling merchandise on the internet or B) he better have been selling a lot more and they only caught him on this one, I mean shoot if you get caught on the first jersey you sell, that is just bad. Anyway I see Spurrier getting it done at home and giving the Columbia, SC faithful much to look forward to in 2010.
Colorado (+10) @ California
Although the teams may have a dislike for one another it wouldn’t surprise if drum circles and peace pipes were spotted in shared sections of the crowd. Berkeley and Boulder are the equivalent of Mecca and Medina for hippies. This will be a love fest in the city but a hard fought game that I expect Colorado to hang with Cal and even have a chance late to pull the upset. The Buffaloes looked good week 1 in their quest to keep Dan Hawkins’ job. Cal also showed up big time with a 52-3 win over FBS UC Davis. This is a preview of the expanded Pac 10 and will give Colorado their first taste of recruiting in California as a Pac 12 member. In fact their California brethren are already bringing out the welcome mat. Reports surfaced that VW busses have been granted a zoning ordinance for the weekend to allow owners to live out of their vehicles on public property within city limits. Ticket sales from Boulder shot up with the announcement. Tailgating at its best.
Michigan (+3) @ Notre Dame
This pick is simply because I think if Michigan plays up to potential they should win this game. Rich Rodriguez has found his QB in Denard Robinson, who fits his spread offense as good as anyone but Pat White. They have to keep him upright and use his arm as much as possible, but I believe the road won’t bother this team and if Michigan shows up as they did last week vs. UConn they will not only cover but win this game.
Miami (+8) @ Ohio State
The only thing left for Cleveland and Ohioans to endure is for Lebron to inflict harm on their state institution, the Ohio State University football team. Being close enough to QB Terrelle Pryor and also with Tressell for the sweater vest coach to issue a statement inviting Lebron to the game, all these fans need to endure now is for Lebron to jinx their team. Not like when he wore a Yankees hat to the playoffs in Cleveland, Lebron will be decked out in Buckeye gear, but regardless the jinx is on, Ohio State will lose (or at least Miami will cover). This could come down to which QB has a better game, Lebron’s new hometown team, led by Jacory Harris or his protégé back in Ohio (not even Akron, where’s the love for the Zips football team), Pryor. My guess is Harris is good enough to keep it close and maybe put Miami back in the National Title talk.
Oregon (-13) @ Tennessee
This one is fairly simple. Both teams shut out opponents week 1, Oregon 72-0 over New Mexico and UT 50-0 over UT Martin. The Volunteers though will be overmatched against an Oregon offense that returns their best player after suspension last week. LaMichael James will join Kenjon Barner and new QB Darron Thomas in wearing out a young Tennessee defense. But the Oregon defense may actually prove to be the difference. An inexperienced UT offense will get its first true test against a fierce unit from Oregon, don’t look for the Vols to generate much on the scoreboard. Oregon might sputter out of the gate getting used to Neyland Stadium’s 100,000 plus fans, but eventually they will get Chip Kelly’s machine rolling and have no problem in Knoxville.
Florida State @ Oklahoma (-7) is another big game on the schedule. The Sooners barely escaped an upset from Utah State while Jimbo Fisher made his debut in Tallahassee a success with a whooping of Samford. Both teams will get tested in this one and while FSU is 7-point underdogs the fans will want an early statement victory in the new regime and they believe they can get it after watching OU last week. Brotherly love will be on display with Mark Stoops the new defensive coordinator at FSU against his brother Bob at OU.
Penn State @ Alabama (-13) will be a test for the defending National Champs. Without Heisman winner Ingram and defensive leader Marcel Dareus Penn State has to feel they have a chance in the deep south. But the Tide will be out to make a statement that they are better than anyone no matter who is on the sideline. I lean towards Alabama as I do believe their offense won’t miss a beat. If the defense holds up it might be a long day for a young Penn State team.
Stanford @ UCLA (+6) is an early season crucial matchup in the Pac 10. The Cardinal come in favored but having lost 6 straight at the Rose Bowl. They did win this game last year at home and enter with a lot of confidence. If UCLA can’t keep Kansas State under 30 points they better hope they find their defense at home under the lights. Andrew Luck given time will put up big numbers. If the o-line protects him and they get a decent running game, Luck should find holes in a great UCLA secondary. If the UCLA defense pressures Luck it could be a long night for Jim Harbaugh. UCLA though will need to find their offense, while. Stanford’s defense has a lot to prove as a unit. They could end up deciding this game though with some big plays against a turnover prone offense. I lean towards the Cardinal but hesitate because of past history.
Covers: Kentucky (-3), Western Michigan (+24.5, glad I had that extra half point)
Losses: Northwestern (-4), LSU (-8), BYU-UW (Over 57)
Push: Purdue (+11)
Although a 2-3-1 record won’t lead to bankruptcy court it doesn’t make you any money either. Needing a half point for a W. Michigan cover and watching an ugly Purdue-Notre Dame game end in a push left me in a bad mood heading into the evening. LSU taking a 30-10 lead brought out the smiles and laughs, but in typical Les Miles fashion the Tigers didn’t hold up well late in the game and almost blew the entire game. I wish they did, why should Miles be able to say “at least we got a win,” when bettors around the nation have to stomach their lackluster effort. Anytime the Tigers want to take the field in the second half I’ll be ready to watch.
Week 2 promises to bring more excitement and definite big money games to Vegas. The slate will keep the sports books busy from morning until night. Here are the Saturday Lox for week 2 and some commentary on the other best games of the week.
Georgia @ South Carolina (-3)
This game would be much easier to bet if it was under 3, but I believe this is the year Steve Spurrier takes some wins away from the Florida-Georgia domination of the SEC West. They had a good start on the opening Thursday, but have the cloud of suspicion around campus because of NCAA investigations. Georgia has its own problems with top talent WR AJ Green suspended the first month of the season for selling a game worn jersey on Ebay. Shouldn’t either A) a player better conceal selling merchandise on the internet or B) he better have been selling a lot more and they only caught him on this one, I mean shoot if you get caught on the first jersey you sell, that is just bad. Anyway I see Spurrier getting it done at home and giving the Columbia, SC faithful much to look forward to in 2010.
Colorado (+10) @ California
Although the teams may have a dislike for one another it wouldn’t surprise if drum circles and peace pipes were spotted in shared sections of the crowd. Berkeley and Boulder are the equivalent of Mecca and Medina for hippies. This will be a love fest in the city but a hard fought game that I expect Colorado to hang with Cal and even have a chance late to pull the upset. The Buffaloes looked good week 1 in their quest to keep Dan Hawkins’ job. Cal also showed up big time with a 52-3 win over FBS UC Davis. This is a preview of the expanded Pac 10 and will give Colorado their first taste of recruiting in California as a Pac 12 member. In fact their California brethren are already bringing out the welcome mat. Reports surfaced that VW busses have been granted a zoning ordinance for the weekend to allow owners to live out of their vehicles on public property within city limits. Ticket sales from Boulder shot up with the announcement. Tailgating at its best.
Michigan (+3) @ Notre Dame
This pick is simply because I think if Michigan plays up to potential they should win this game. Rich Rodriguez has found his QB in Denard Robinson, who fits his spread offense as good as anyone but Pat White. They have to keep him upright and use his arm as much as possible, but I believe the road won’t bother this team and if Michigan shows up as they did last week vs. UConn they will not only cover but win this game.
Miami (+8) @ Ohio State
The only thing left for Cleveland and Ohioans to endure is for Lebron to inflict harm on their state institution, the Ohio State University football team. Being close enough to QB Terrelle Pryor and also with Tressell for the sweater vest coach to issue a statement inviting Lebron to the game, all these fans need to endure now is for Lebron to jinx their team. Not like when he wore a Yankees hat to the playoffs in Cleveland, Lebron will be decked out in Buckeye gear, but regardless the jinx is on, Ohio State will lose (or at least Miami will cover). This could come down to which QB has a better game, Lebron’s new hometown team, led by Jacory Harris or his protégé back in Ohio (not even Akron, where’s the love for the Zips football team), Pryor. My guess is Harris is good enough to keep it close and maybe put Miami back in the National Title talk.
Oregon (-13) @ Tennessee
This one is fairly simple. Both teams shut out opponents week 1, Oregon 72-0 over New Mexico and UT 50-0 over UT Martin. The Volunteers though will be overmatched against an Oregon offense that returns their best player after suspension last week. LaMichael James will join Kenjon Barner and new QB Darron Thomas in wearing out a young Tennessee defense. But the Oregon defense may actually prove to be the difference. An inexperienced UT offense will get its first true test against a fierce unit from Oregon, don’t look for the Vols to generate much on the scoreboard. Oregon might sputter out of the gate getting used to Neyland Stadium’s 100,000 plus fans, but eventually they will get Chip Kelly’s machine rolling and have no problem in Knoxville.
Florida State @ Oklahoma (-7) is another big game on the schedule. The Sooners barely escaped an upset from Utah State while Jimbo Fisher made his debut in Tallahassee a success with a whooping of Samford. Both teams will get tested in this one and while FSU is 7-point underdogs the fans will want an early statement victory in the new regime and they believe they can get it after watching OU last week. Brotherly love will be on display with Mark Stoops the new defensive coordinator at FSU against his brother Bob at OU.
Penn State @ Alabama (-13) will be a test for the defending National Champs. Without Heisman winner Ingram and defensive leader Marcel Dareus Penn State has to feel they have a chance in the deep south. But the Tide will be out to make a statement that they are better than anyone no matter who is on the sideline. I lean towards Alabama as I do believe their offense won’t miss a beat. If the defense holds up it might be a long day for a young Penn State team.
Stanford @ UCLA (+6) is an early season crucial matchup in the Pac 10. The Cardinal come in favored but having lost 6 straight at the Rose Bowl. They did win this game last year at home and enter with a lot of confidence. If UCLA can’t keep Kansas State under 30 points they better hope they find their defense at home under the lights. Andrew Luck given time will put up big numbers. If the o-line protects him and they get a decent running game, Luck should find holes in a great UCLA secondary. If the UCLA defense pressures Luck it could be a long night for Jim Harbaugh. UCLA though will need to find their offense, while. Stanford’s defense has a lot to prove as a unit. They could end up deciding this game though with some big plays against a turnover prone offense. I lean towards the Cardinal but hesitate because of past history.
Friday, September 3, 2010
2010 Is Upon Us: Week 1
College Football 2010
The 2010 season is upon us after a rollercoaster offseason that led the sport to the brink of unimaginable change and then back off the ledge. So what better way to celebrate than running to the ATM, taking out a stack of $20s that was meant for groceries for the next month and asking directions to the nearest Sports Book. I know for me that is a sure sign Labor Day is upon us.
I set out last year with the goal of giving the legions of college football fans an edge when it comes to knowledge of the games and more importantly handicapping those games. Although I was successful in one way, giving out said knowledge, it was not the success I strive for, beating the Vegas oddsmakers. Let’s just say I would have been the guy sweating out whether I get my room comped at the Holiday Inn, not the guy being given the keys to a Presidential Suite at the Bellagio.
So this year the goal will be higher. No more mediocrity for the Saturday Lox. No more waiting in the discount buffet line because SMU didn’t cover, we are heading straight to the VIP line this year. No more sweating the final score of the Akron-Bowling Green game or hoping New Mexico State runs up the score on San Jose State. Those games don’t lead to the Penthouse, they lead to Gambler’s Anonymous meetings.
Saturday Lox exists for one reason, ironically the same as the NCAA and BCS: Make as much money off others as you can while saying you are doing it for the good of others. So jump on the bandwagon, find your nearest casino, bookie or Western Union (sending money to an offshore account in the Cayman Islands has never been easier!) and let the Games begin.
There are only a few sure things in life: Death, Taxes and cursing at the TV because the damn kicker missed the extra point that cost you the spread. Good luck everyone and enjoy.
Week 1 Lox
Western Michigan (+24.5) @ Michigan State
Okay, so the Broncos from Kalamazoo don’t exactly have the cache to get me in free at Tao Beach nightclub (The club Lebron reportedly celebrated at by only allowing waitresses wearing his jersey to serve him, and when I say his jersey that is all they were wearing), but it’s not a bad start. Western Michigan is the favorite in the MAC this year and Michigan State will be breaking in 4 new starters on the offensive line. Last year the Spartans lost to Central Michigan 29-27 in week 2 as 14-point home favorites. This year Western Michigan should be able to keep it close enough to cover the 24 points.
Northwestern (-4) @ Vanderbilt
Coming off a 2-10 season the Commodores don’t have much to look forward to, at least in football (this might be a good matchup in debate!). Northwestern on the other hand has been to two straight bowl games, losing both in overtime, but are looking up in the Big Ten. The Wildcats went 4-1 last year on he road ATS (against the spread), including wins at Purdue, at Iowa (#8) and at Illinois. This team doesn’t mind playing away from Chicago (or Evanston to be exact) and are the more talented team. Look for Northwestern to break in their new QB with at least a touchdown victory.
Purdue (+11) @ Notre Dame
As much confidence Notre Dame should rightfully possess with Brian Kelly now at the helm, I think Vegas again overvalues this team. It is a case of much more money flowing into the Irish side in Vegas that makes the line artificially high. Purdue is a decent team that possesses enough talent to have upset Ohio State last year. More importantly the new QB is Robert Marve, a transfer from Miami who many say has more talent than Jacory Harris, who beat him out for the job at the U. He could become the next in a great line of Boilermaker QBs (Drew Brees tops the list) and his first start will come under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus. Notre Dame will be much improved most likely but won’t put it together week 1 and will struggle enough to make this a close game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdue has a shot to spoil Kelly’s debut late in this game. The Irish won this matchup last year with a TD with 20 seconds left.
Kentucky (-3) @ Louisville
This isn’t exactly Rick Pitino vs. John Calipari or Rick Pitino vs. Denny Crum, whichever stint of Pitino you choose to remember, but it still stokes some animosity across the Commonwealth. Kentucky has won 3 straight and now the torch is passed to new head coach Joker Phillips. If the Wildcats’ new offensive line holds up, the skill positions will be very good. Fellow rookie head coach Charlie Strong, Florida’s old defensive coordinator, has to break in 7 new starters on defense and it won’t be an easy start. Both fan bases are hungry to elevate their football programs and it starts with this rivalry.
Washington @ BYU (Over 57)
Jake Locker will look for revenge in two forms on Saturday, one against the opposing team, the other against the officials. It was Locker’s “celebration” penalty after scoring what he thought was the tying TD against BYU two years ago that led to the blocked extra point and the loss. It was a terrible call that started the downward spiral of the eventual 0-12 season. The Huskies should be much improved though after taking a step up last year under head coach Steve Sarkisian. Interestingly, it was the Huskies that prevented Sarkisian from going undefeated in his finest season as the QB at BYU, losing at Husky Stadium in a blowout, BYU’s only loss that year. With 18 starters back including 10 on offense, Sarkisian has himself a potent offense. BYU will be rotating two QBs to start but have never had a problem on offense. Both these teams are capable of fireworks on offense so I expect a shootout and whoever has the ball last may ultimately prevail.
North Carolina vs. LSU (-8) in Atlanta
The Agency or The Tutor. For the Tar Heels’ athletic director he is going to hear about two things for as many years as he has his job in Chapel Hill. That is the agency that is mixed up in a scandal with some of the top talent on UNC and the tutor who is now at the center of an academic investigation into the UNC athletic family. Roy Williams please step to the microphone you’re never shy about speaking up.
Going back to the game, this is the Chick Fil A Kickoff in Atlanta that pits a top ACC and SEC team to start the season. The SEC has dominated in the past and with the talent missing on the Tar Heels, including DE Marvin Austin and WR Greg Little, I expect LSU to keep the streak intact. I would have initially thought betting the under (44) was the safe play, I now expect QB Jordan Jefferson to shine, with Russell Shepard (last year’s top HS QB recruit) playing a big part in the passing game alongside Terrance Tolliver. UNC still has the team to compete and win this game, but ultimately the Bayou Bengals will be the team celebrating in Atlanta.
Other important games this week include TCU and Oregon State in Cowboys Stadium. I was surprised to see TCU favored by 13, but looking at Oregon State’s history with road games in September, let’s just say really bad, and TCU looking at repeating last year’s BCS party (right up until the flat loss to Boise) with their entire offense back, I can understand the big spread. OSU also has a history of having less success in a QB’s first season. So it will be up to the Rodgers brothers to keep the Beavers in this game. It would be big for the Pac 10 to go into Texas and beat a heavily favored MWC team. But the experts say it’s a long shot.
Not much else on the schedule Saturday worth discussing. Check back before Monday for the Game of the Week, Boise State and Virginia Tech.
The 2010 season is upon us after a rollercoaster offseason that led the sport to the brink of unimaginable change and then back off the ledge. So what better way to celebrate than running to the ATM, taking out a stack of $20s that was meant for groceries for the next month and asking directions to the nearest Sports Book. I know for me that is a sure sign Labor Day is upon us.
I set out last year with the goal of giving the legions of college football fans an edge when it comes to knowledge of the games and more importantly handicapping those games. Although I was successful in one way, giving out said knowledge, it was not the success I strive for, beating the Vegas oddsmakers. Let’s just say I would have been the guy sweating out whether I get my room comped at the Holiday Inn, not the guy being given the keys to a Presidential Suite at the Bellagio.
So this year the goal will be higher. No more mediocrity for the Saturday Lox. No more waiting in the discount buffet line because SMU didn’t cover, we are heading straight to the VIP line this year. No more sweating the final score of the Akron-Bowling Green game or hoping New Mexico State runs up the score on San Jose State. Those games don’t lead to the Penthouse, they lead to Gambler’s Anonymous meetings.
Saturday Lox exists for one reason, ironically the same as the NCAA and BCS: Make as much money off others as you can while saying you are doing it for the good of others. So jump on the bandwagon, find your nearest casino, bookie or Western Union (sending money to an offshore account in the Cayman Islands has never been easier!) and let the Games begin.
There are only a few sure things in life: Death, Taxes and cursing at the TV because the damn kicker missed the extra point that cost you the spread. Good luck everyone and enjoy.
Week 1 Lox
Western Michigan (+24.5) @ Michigan State
Okay, so the Broncos from Kalamazoo don’t exactly have the cache to get me in free at Tao Beach nightclub (The club Lebron reportedly celebrated at by only allowing waitresses wearing his jersey to serve him, and when I say his jersey that is all they were wearing), but it’s not a bad start. Western Michigan is the favorite in the MAC this year and Michigan State will be breaking in 4 new starters on the offensive line. Last year the Spartans lost to Central Michigan 29-27 in week 2 as 14-point home favorites. This year Western Michigan should be able to keep it close enough to cover the 24 points.
Northwestern (-4) @ Vanderbilt
Coming off a 2-10 season the Commodores don’t have much to look forward to, at least in football (this might be a good matchup in debate!). Northwestern on the other hand has been to two straight bowl games, losing both in overtime, but are looking up in the Big Ten. The Wildcats went 4-1 last year on he road ATS (against the spread), including wins at Purdue, at Iowa (#8) and at Illinois. This team doesn’t mind playing away from Chicago (or Evanston to be exact) and are the more talented team. Look for Northwestern to break in their new QB with at least a touchdown victory.
Purdue (+11) @ Notre Dame
As much confidence Notre Dame should rightfully possess with Brian Kelly now at the helm, I think Vegas again overvalues this team. It is a case of much more money flowing into the Irish side in Vegas that makes the line artificially high. Purdue is a decent team that possesses enough talent to have upset Ohio State last year. More importantly the new QB is Robert Marve, a transfer from Miami who many say has more talent than Jacory Harris, who beat him out for the job at the U. He could become the next in a great line of Boilermaker QBs (Drew Brees tops the list) and his first start will come under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus. Notre Dame will be much improved most likely but won’t put it together week 1 and will struggle enough to make this a close game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdue has a shot to spoil Kelly’s debut late in this game. The Irish won this matchup last year with a TD with 20 seconds left.
Kentucky (-3) @ Louisville
This isn’t exactly Rick Pitino vs. John Calipari or Rick Pitino vs. Denny Crum, whichever stint of Pitino you choose to remember, but it still stokes some animosity across the Commonwealth. Kentucky has won 3 straight and now the torch is passed to new head coach Joker Phillips. If the Wildcats’ new offensive line holds up, the skill positions will be very good. Fellow rookie head coach Charlie Strong, Florida’s old defensive coordinator, has to break in 7 new starters on defense and it won’t be an easy start. Both fan bases are hungry to elevate their football programs and it starts with this rivalry.
Washington @ BYU (Over 57)
Jake Locker will look for revenge in two forms on Saturday, one against the opposing team, the other against the officials. It was Locker’s “celebration” penalty after scoring what he thought was the tying TD against BYU two years ago that led to the blocked extra point and the loss. It was a terrible call that started the downward spiral of the eventual 0-12 season. The Huskies should be much improved though after taking a step up last year under head coach Steve Sarkisian. Interestingly, it was the Huskies that prevented Sarkisian from going undefeated in his finest season as the QB at BYU, losing at Husky Stadium in a blowout, BYU’s only loss that year. With 18 starters back including 10 on offense, Sarkisian has himself a potent offense. BYU will be rotating two QBs to start but have never had a problem on offense. Both these teams are capable of fireworks on offense so I expect a shootout and whoever has the ball last may ultimately prevail.
North Carolina vs. LSU (-8) in Atlanta
The Agency or The Tutor. For the Tar Heels’ athletic director he is going to hear about two things for as many years as he has his job in Chapel Hill. That is the agency that is mixed up in a scandal with some of the top talent on UNC and the tutor who is now at the center of an academic investigation into the UNC athletic family. Roy Williams please step to the microphone you’re never shy about speaking up.
Going back to the game, this is the Chick Fil A Kickoff in Atlanta that pits a top ACC and SEC team to start the season. The SEC has dominated in the past and with the talent missing on the Tar Heels, including DE Marvin Austin and WR Greg Little, I expect LSU to keep the streak intact. I would have initially thought betting the under (44) was the safe play, I now expect QB Jordan Jefferson to shine, with Russell Shepard (last year’s top HS QB recruit) playing a big part in the passing game alongside Terrance Tolliver. UNC still has the team to compete and win this game, but ultimately the Bayou Bengals will be the team celebrating in Atlanta.
Other important games this week include TCU and Oregon State in Cowboys Stadium. I was surprised to see TCU favored by 13, but looking at Oregon State’s history with road games in September, let’s just say really bad, and TCU looking at repeating last year’s BCS party (right up until the flat loss to Boise) with their entire offense back, I can understand the big spread. OSU also has a history of having less success in a QB’s first season. So it will be up to the Rodgers brothers to keep the Beavers in this game. It would be big for the Pac 10 to go into Texas and beat a heavily favored MWC team. But the experts say it’s a long shot.
Not much else on the schedule Saturday worth discussing. Check back before Monday for the Game of the Week, Boise State and Virginia Tech.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
BCS National Championship
I hear Iowa is a great place to visit. Well, maybe not on a winter vacation, but the Iowa football team deserves a tropical break after thrashing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the coldest Orange Bowl on record. They didn't treat their trip to Miami as a vacation and with the upset win over the ACC champions in weather that was very comforting to the tens of thousands of Hawkeye fans in attendance, the Iowa football team and Kirk Ferentz put an exclamation point on their best season in decades. Tech couldn't get past the Iowa defense in the first half, not gaining a first down until mid-2nd quarter. In fact, Tech went 3 and out and punted on their first four possessions, something they only did 14 times in their other 13 games. Hand it to Iowa's defense for setting the stage and their offense for capitalizing with 2 first quarter TDs to grab a lead they would never relinquish. Once again it can be said that Georgia Tech has a problem when teams can prepare for weeks to stop their Triple Option offense. Last year it was LSU that handled them easily after a month off and now Iowa showed they could master the intricacies of Paul Johnson's offense with plenty of time to prepare. It was a big win for the Saturday Lox, as the upset win and the relative low score helped improve the bottom line with just one bet left in the season. That brings us to the final night of college football for almost 8 months, and the attention is turned back to the Rose Bowl, where two tradition-rich football programs will battle it out for the Crystal Trophy.
BCS National Championship From the Rose Bowl in Pasadena
Alabama (-3.5) vs. Texas
In a bowl season that has seen many underdogs, especially those within 3-5 points, come out as the winner it is difficult to separate this game from the context of the bowl season. 3 of the 4 BCS games were won outright by underdogs (Ohio State, Iowa and Boise State) and many more lesser bowls followed suit. But good handicappers, those old guys sitting in the corner of the sports bar at Las Vegas casinos that have everybody whispering to their buddies about them, never let other forces influence their thinking about a game. Many intangible components lead one to believe Texas will be standing on stage tonight with the trophy proclaiming them National Champion. The fact that they won the last Title game played in the Rose Bowl, over USC as a big underdog. The trend that shows the Heisman winner losing in the Title game (Eric Crouch in 2001, Jason White in 2003, Reggie Bush in 2005, Troy Smith in 2006 and Sam Bradford last year) bodes well for Texas and not so well for Mark Ingram and Alabama. The fact that Colt McCoy is the winningest QB in college football while Greg McElroy is making his first bowl game appearance. Texas has those intangibles on its side and some Longhorns fans say destiny is on their side as well after last year's snub from the BCS that saw Oklahoma playing for the Title even though Texas beat them. But all those stats go out the window when these teams line up for the kickoff and the final result will be determined not by which team has history or destiny on its side, not by which team had the more impressive season, but simply by which team plays better for 60 minutes of football. Mack Brown has preached this to his football team since their win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game, when they needed one more second to secure the win, yet got the extra second and the chance to play in this game tonight. So the question is, which team will play better tonight?
For Nick Saban and Alabama the keys to victory here are the same as they have been all year. Run the ball with authority to Mark Ingram and let Greg McElroy pick apart a defense that is geared toward stopping the run. They would like to have a time of possession advantage (33 minutes on average during the season) and then hand over a lead to their defense, a unit that is first or second in the nation in most categories. Texas though has statistically the best run defense (many people frown at this stat as the Big 12 has turned into a pass happy conference) and will look to stop Ingram and put the game in the hands of McElroy. On offense the Longhorns must be able to run the ball, even if it is McCoy doing the running, as in the Texas A&M win when he rushed for 175 yards. If he and the run game are neutralized early it could become similar to the Nebraska game when McCoy was pestered into 3 int's and 9 sacks. They had no running game and the Nebraska front 4 dominated the Texas O-line. The difference between the Tide defense and the Cornhuskers is the Tide plays a 3-4 alignment that relies heavily on their linebackers and secondary to make plays. Nebraska's strength was their 4 D-linemen led by Ndamukong Suh, which pressured McCoy into many mistakes. Alabama will try to stop the run, make McCoy one-dimensional, and let LB Rolando McClain and CB Javier Arenas make big plays. DT Terrance Cody will also be key to disrupting McCoy and the offense.
For Texas to win I believe they will need big performances from McCoy, who will need to use his arm and his legs to make plays and not turn the ball over or take negative plays. Also, they will need a few big plays in the running game or on screen passes. WR Jordan Shipley must also have a big game, as he was a non-factor in the Big 12 Title game. He has been impressive in the return game and one big play on special teams can sometimes decide a game like this. On defense the Longhorns must take away Mark Ingram and not allow for long drives that let the Bama defense rest and give momentum to the Tide. They will do everything they can to put the game in McElroy's hands and see if the young QB can win the Title for the Tide.
The reason I am picking Alabama in this game is because the Tide has showed they can rely on multiple ways to win a game. In the close win over Tennessee they needed defensive stops and a blocked field goal to come out on top. In their rivalry game against Auburn Mark Ingram was contained all game with only 30 rushing yards, yet McElroy took the team on his back and drove for the winning TD. To beat Florida the Tide relied on Ingram running and receiving and a relentless defense that stymied Tim Tebow. WR Julio Jones, who many figured would be their best offensive weapon, was held in check the first half of the season but came on strong down the stretch and will be the biggest threat for McElroy in the passing game. Bama also features pass catching TE's that work the middle of the field off play-action fakes, a big part of their offense.
The difference though I believe will be McElroy. After getting off to a great start to the season, he stumbled in the SEC and had fans wondering if he could lead them to a Title. But after the Auburn winning drive he seemed to show a leadership and confidence in the SEC Title game not seen before. I think he is ready for the high stakes of this game and with a supporting cast of Ingram and Jones and a stout defense the Crimson Tide will be standing victorious for their first National Title since Gene Stallings in 1992.
The fact is Texas has barely escaped victorious in both games this year (Oklahoma and Nebraska) against their heated rivals. They weren't able to muster their usual offensive fireworks in either game and I don't expect them to do so against Alabama. Similar to what Florida did last year to Oklahoma, I believe Bama will pressure McCoy into mistakes and Texas won't be able to score TDs in the red zone. They will have enough opportunities to win but in the end the Alabama Crimson Tide will make enough defensive stops and have enough firepower between Ingram and Jones to come out winners. This should be a great game between two teams that deserve to be here, with Nick Saban able to take his second national championship home (first was with LSU in 2003) with an amazing 3-year turnaround at Alabama. To think Saban's only two losses in two years was a blown 4th quarter lead to Florida in last year's SEC Championship game and then the lackluster performance to Utah in last year's Sugar Bowl is very impressive. Even more impressive after you look at his first season the team lost to Louisiana Monroe, at home. This team has come a long way from when Nick Saban boarded a flight from Miami and told the Dolphins he was meant to coach in college, to now three years into the process of building Bear Bryant's program back to prominence the Tide has a chance to stand at the top of the college football world.
Alabama 27 - Texas 20
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Orange Bowl
Iowa (+5.5) vs. Georgia Tech
As we still await TCU's arrival to the BCS (the Fiesta Bowl was last night guys, sorry maybe next year) the attention of college football turns to Miami where the Orange Bowl is set to host Iowa and Georgia Tech. Fans from the Midwest will have vacationed for days in the oasis that is Miami, yet 48 degree highs with gusting winds might not be ideal weather for the beach or football. After Boise State's uninspiring win over a hapless TCU team (thanks again guys, no vacation for me after last night's bet) we turn to what most have said is the least interesting of the BCS Bowls, Iowa versus Georgia Tech. Triple Option offense versus stout defense and a cardiac offense. Big 10 versus ACC. It will be worth the price of admission if the Tech offense does not falter as it did last year in the Peach Bowl (it's still the Peach Bowl to me, no Chick Fil-A) to LSU 38-3, a whooping that Les Miles put on Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech with the Jackets as 3-point favorites. This year though Georgia Tech has put up a stellar season while winning the ACC and has a chance for their best finish since their shared national title in 1990. Iowa as well could finish with its most wins and highest ranking since 1960. Both teams should have good crowds at Land Shark Stadium and this game could surprise people and be the best of all the BCS games, as Iowa has several late 4th-quarter comebacks this season and played Ohio State to a fantastic overtime loss. It should be a close game and I expect both teams to play well, unlike last night with TCU and Cincinnati and Oregon in earlier BCS games.
The trend has been toward underdogs in this year's bowl games, with many teams favored by 3-5 points getting upset outright. I will go with the underdog here as well, as Iowa is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this year including 3-1 winning outright. Over 3 seasons those stats go up to 11-3 ATS and 7-7 SU. So judging by Iowa's past they usually are underdogs only in numbers. The Yellow Jackets also have been good this year ATS, going 8-4 on the year. They were upset outright to Georgia on Thanksgiving weekend though and have shown weakness on defense. The Hawkeyes have relied on winning close games with a stout defense and balanced offense that has engineered comeback drives late in wins over Michigan State and Michigan and the loss to Ohio State. Georgia Tech, led by QB Josh Nesbitt, RB Jonathan Dwyer and a host of other playmakers, have only been held to under 200 rushing yards in one game, a loss to Miami on this same field, while Iowa has only allowed over 200 yards once all season. Contrasting styles and a battle of wills will be on display and whichever team can play their game and avoid mistakes and turnovers should win. With GT superior offensively, Iowa defensively, the special teams could make the difference and I belive Iowa is better in that department. Remember a fake punt won the game for Boise last night. Iowa also has not lost a game when QB Ricky Stanzi plays the entire way (he left their first loss to Northwestern to injury and didn't play in the Ohio State game) and he will start in this one. Take the points (the money line if you feel greedy) and hope Iowa can stop the Tech offense with a month to prepare. Both teams trend towards the Under this year as well so with a total of 51 points, if you feel lucky take the under and make it a big pay day. Iowa 23 - Georgia Tech 22
As we still await TCU's arrival to the BCS (the Fiesta Bowl was last night guys, sorry maybe next year) the attention of college football turns to Miami where the Orange Bowl is set to host Iowa and Georgia Tech. Fans from the Midwest will have vacationed for days in the oasis that is Miami, yet 48 degree highs with gusting winds might not be ideal weather for the beach or football. After Boise State's uninspiring win over a hapless TCU team (thanks again guys, no vacation for me after last night's bet) we turn to what most have said is the least interesting of the BCS Bowls, Iowa versus Georgia Tech. Triple Option offense versus stout defense and a cardiac offense. Big 10 versus ACC. It will be worth the price of admission if the Tech offense does not falter as it did last year in the Peach Bowl (it's still the Peach Bowl to me, no Chick Fil-A) to LSU 38-3, a whooping that Les Miles put on Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech with the Jackets as 3-point favorites. This year though Georgia Tech has put up a stellar season while winning the ACC and has a chance for their best finish since their shared national title in 1990. Iowa as well could finish with its most wins and highest ranking since 1960. Both teams should have good crowds at Land Shark Stadium and this game could surprise people and be the best of all the BCS games, as Iowa has several late 4th-quarter comebacks this season and played Ohio State to a fantastic overtime loss. It should be a close game and I expect both teams to play well, unlike last night with TCU and Cincinnati and Oregon in earlier BCS games.
The trend has been toward underdogs in this year's bowl games, with many teams favored by 3-5 points getting upset outright. I will go with the underdog here as well, as Iowa is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this year including 3-1 winning outright. Over 3 seasons those stats go up to 11-3 ATS and 7-7 SU. So judging by Iowa's past they usually are underdogs only in numbers. The Yellow Jackets also have been good this year ATS, going 8-4 on the year. They were upset outright to Georgia on Thanksgiving weekend though and have shown weakness on defense. The Hawkeyes have relied on winning close games with a stout defense and balanced offense that has engineered comeback drives late in wins over Michigan State and Michigan and the loss to Ohio State. Georgia Tech, led by QB Josh Nesbitt, RB Jonathan Dwyer and a host of other playmakers, have only been held to under 200 rushing yards in one game, a loss to Miami on this same field, while Iowa has only allowed over 200 yards once all season. Contrasting styles and a battle of wills will be on display and whichever team can play their game and avoid mistakes and turnovers should win. With GT superior offensively, Iowa defensively, the special teams could make the difference and I belive Iowa is better in that department. Remember a fake punt won the game for Boise last night. Iowa also has not lost a game when QB Ricky Stanzi plays the entire way (he left their first loss to Northwestern to injury and didn't play in the Ohio State game) and he will start in this one. Take the points (the money line if you feel greedy) and hope Iowa can stop the Tech offense with a month to prepare. Both teams trend towards the Under this year as well so with a total of 51 points, if you feel lucky take the under and make it a big pay day. Iowa 23 - Georgia Tech 22
Monday, January 4, 2010
Fiesta Bowl
Heading into the final 3 BCS Bowl games including the National Title my picks have fared about as well as Barack Obama's healthcare plan, that is to say each win is whittled away by a a loss or two. But with money left and a sporting landscape headed toward NBA basketball (how much you wanna bet Tim Donaghy is still playing some angles just to spite David Stern) and can't wait until March Madness, there is no better time to go all in on the few nights of football left. That brings us to the Fiesta and Orange Bowls and the National Title Game from Pasadena. The Lox record in bowls thus far is a far-from inspiring 4-8-1. With 2 wins in a row to salvage the New Year's weekend, a strong finish is in the works and could save the season. I promised a vacation after football season, three games left to earn it.
Fiesta Bowl
TCU (-7) vs. Boise State
In a strange occurence these two teams met last year in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Boise was undefeated yet three-point underdogs to TCU and Gary Patterson. TCU won the game 17-16 but could have dominated as they turned the ball over several times in Boise territory and outgained the Broncos by 200 yards, holding Boise to 250 total and just 28 rush yards. Both teams now meet on center stage in the first BCS game featuring teams from non-BCS conferences. Also this will be the first BCS bowl game with two undefeated teams that is not the National Title game.
The difference from this year to last is TCU has the better offense and defense statistically over Boise. The Horned Frogs dominated the MWC, beating rivals Utah and BYU by a combined 58 points and going on the road to beat Clemson early in the season. Boise has the memorable opening win over Oregon and then took on all comers, with Fresno State and Nevada keeping the games interesting. Taking the outcomes from the bowl season it is easy to surmise that the MWC is the best "non-BCS" conference and quite possibly on equal footing now, especially at the top the conference, with other major conferences. Utah and BYU both beat Pac-10 schools in their bowl games as underdogs and the conference is 4-0, while the WAC has suffered upset losses by Nevada and Fresno State.
The QBs make each of these teams special on offense with Kellen Moore of Boise getting more publicity and putting up video game numbers with his 39-3 TD-int rate. Boise averages 44 points a game, first nationally, but is just 8th in yards gained, while TCU, led by QB Andy Dalton is 4th nationally in both points and yards. Dalton threw just 5 ints all season and was one of four players to rush for at least 500 yards this season. TCU's defense though is the unit to watch as Gary Patterson has built a defense from the beginning that would make his team competitive year in and year out. DE Jerry Hughes is the NFL talent to watch as he will make the offensive line of Boise work harder than they have all year. Whether Boise can block for Moore will be a big part of how this game goes.
Until last year's win but non-cover, Gary Patterson had been 5-0 ATS for TCU in bowl games. His teams always seem to play well in statement games and he has admitted this is a huge opportunity on a national level for his program. Boise has been here before, beating Oklahoma in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl as 7-point underdogs. But they are just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS in bowls but have won 25 of 26 games overall. Having said this I think TCU is the stronger team talent wise and if they aren't intimidated by the big stage should be able to do to Boise what they did to BYU and Utah earlier. They will come out strong on both offense and defense and make the Broncos one-dimensional where they can tee off on Kellen Moore. Boise's head coach Chris Peterson will have some tricks up his sleeves to stop the rush and make big plays, but in the end TCU will be too much to handle and will prove that they are the most deserving of the undefeated teams not in the Title game. TCU 34 - Boise State 13
Fiesta Bowl
TCU (-7) vs. Boise State
In a strange occurence these two teams met last year in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Boise was undefeated yet three-point underdogs to TCU and Gary Patterson. TCU won the game 17-16 but could have dominated as they turned the ball over several times in Boise territory and outgained the Broncos by 200 yards, holding Boise to 250 total and just 28 rush yards. Both teams now meet on center stage in the first BCS game featuring teams from non-BCS conferences. Also this will be the first BCS bowl game with two undefeated teams that is not the National Title game.
The difference from this year to last is TCU has the better offense and defense statistically over Boise. The Horned Frogs dominated the MWC, beating rivals Utah and BYU by a combined 58 points and going on the road to beat Clemson early in the season. Boise has the memorable opening win over Oregon and then took on all comers, with Fresno State and Nevada keeping the games interesting. Taking the outcomes from the bowl season it is easy to surmise that the MWC is the best "non-BCS" conference and quite possibly on equal footing now, especially at the top the conference, with other major conferences. Utah and BYU both beat Pac-10 schools in their bowl games as underdogs and the conference is 4-0, while the WAC has suffered upset losses by Nevada and Fresno State.
The QBs make each of these teams special on offense with Kellen Moore of Boise getting more publicity and putting up video game numbers with his 39-3 TD-int rate. Boise averages 44 points a game, first nationally, but is just 8th in yards gained, while TCU, led by QB Andy Dalton is 4th nationally in both points and yards. Dalton threw just 5 ints all season and was one of four players to rush for at least 500 yards this season. TCU's defense though is the unit to watch as Gary Patterson has built a defense from the beginning that would make his team competitive year in and year out. DE Jerry Hughes is the NFL talent to watch as he will make the offensive line of Boise work harder than they have all year. Whether Boise can block for Moore will be a big part of how this game goes.
Until last year's win but non-cover, Gary Patterson had been 5-0 ATS for TCU in bowl games. His teams always seem to play well in statement games and he has admitted this is a huge opportunity on a national level for his program. Boise has been here before, beating Oklahoma in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl as 7-point underdogs. But they are just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS in bowls but have won 25 of 26 games overall. Having said this I think TCU is the stronger team talent wise and if they aren't intimidated by the big stage should be able to do to Boise what they did to BYU and Utah earlier. They will come out strong on both offense and defense and make the Broncos one-dimensional where they can tee off on Kellen Moore. Boise's head coach Chris Peterson will have some tricks up his sleeves to stop the rush and make big plays, but in the end TCU will be too much to handle and will prove that they are the most deserving of the undefeated teams not in the Title game. TCU 34 - Boise State 13
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
New Year's Day Games
Gator Bowl
West Virginia (-2.5) vs. Florida State
The Seminoles are here only because Bobby Bowden is coaching his last game and he wanted a game in Florida. It will mean a great deal to him that he is playing against the other school he is known for coaching is his illustrious career. But this year the Mountaineers are the better team and should handle everything Florida State can throw at them. QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine will be too much to handle for the Noles, while the WV defense has been steady all year and will be able to control the FSU offense without QB Christian Ponder. Give the points and hope the sentimental favorite Bobby Bowden does not end on a winning note. West Virginia 27 - Florida State 21
Capitol One Bowl (Citrus Bowl)
LSU (+2) vs. Penn State
The Bayou Bengals have had chances to have a great season but couldn't pull off the upset of Alabama and Les Miles threw away a win against Ole Miss. Now they find themselves in Orlando as underdogs to the Nittany Lions. But Penn State has not been impressive against good competition, losing to Ohio State and Iowa in Happy Valley in their only real big games of the year. Still, Joe Paterno got another 10 win season in what was thought to be a weak Big 10. Les Miles wins bowl games, as he is 4-0 as head coach at LSU, with the 14 point win over Ohio State in the National Championship game the lowest margin of victory. Having said that I think you would have to be crazy to think LSU does not have a great chance in this game. They will play swarming defense with a month to prepare for the Penn State attack and their offense should be good enough to put a few big plays together with WRs Brandon LaFell and Terrance Tolliver leading the way with QB Jordan Jefferson. Expect Les Miles to be charming his way through the postgame interviews and the LSU faithful to have a Happy New Year's in Orlando. LSU 24 - Penn State 16
Rose Bowl - The Grand Daddy of them All
Oregon (-3.5) vs. Ohio State
This will be both coaches first Rose Bowl, with Jim Tressell playing in his 7th BCS game. Oregon fought through tremendous adversity to get to this point and I'm sure will savor every minute of the pregame festivities and hoopla. But both teams will be ready come kickoff with conference and school pride on the line. Great matchups can be found all over the field, but none more so than the QB position. Terrelle Pryor was expected to do what Jeremiah Masoli has done this year with Oregon, that is be a dual threat QB that contends for the Heisman. If Pryor had a great year this team easily could have been undefeated, but as it is the offense sputtered in big games behind Tressell's conservative play calling and Pryor's mistakes and turnovers. For Oregon their only losses were to Boise State and Stanford on the road with both teams playing their best games. The Ducks outlasted Arizona and Oregon State to lay claim to the Pac 10 with amazing fourth quarters and are never out of a game with their quick-strike ability on offense and play-making defense. The game could come down to which style prevails, that of the conservative, defense and run-first Buckeyers, or the big play, hurry-up attack of the Ducks. Oregon was able to tire out most defenses with their quick pace and relentless style while Ohio State wore down teams with a nasty defense. It is a welcome sight to have a team other than USC representing the Pac 10 and to see the Buckeyes get a chance at the classic Rose Bowl after years of playing in other BCS games. But the Ducks have a lot to live up to after USC dominated the Rose Bowl for many years. I believe LaMichael James for Oregon, along with Masoli will be the difference as they have been all year and after a slow start they will get things rolling for the Ducks in a big second half to pull out the win and cover. Ohio State has lost three straight BCS games while Oregon has won two straight bowls and won their last trip to the BCS in the Fiesta Bowl in 2002. They have not won a Rose Bowl in decades though so the Oregon faithful will have much to cheer about on their way home from Pasadena. Oregon 33 - Ohio State 27
Sugar Bowl
Florida (-10) vs. Cincinnati
This is the Turmoil Bowl, with Cinci coach Brian Kelly watching from his new couch in South Bend and Florida wondering if Urban Meyer will be coaching next year. Both teams should have all the emotions flowing as they are led by strong senior classes with QBs Tim Tebow and Tony Pike the leaders. I think the game comes down to Florida being able to control the game on offense, with Cinci's defense being exposed the last month of the season. While the Bearcats have an explosive offense themselves, they won't have the same success against a nasty Gators defense wanting to make up for the SEC Championship debacle. Whereas last year Alabama lost the SEC and went on to get upset by Utah in the Sugar Bowl, I don't think the same thing happens to Florida with Tebow playing his final college game and the situation with Meyer. Also, Alabama was heartbroken after a tough, hard fought loss last year, while Florida was soundly beaten and should be motivated by the loss that ruined their dream season. Expect Tebow to go out on top and the Gator contingent to be partying on Bourbon Street deep into the night. Florida 48 - Cincinnati 27
Cotton Bowl - Saturday
Ole Miss (-3) vs. Oklahoma State
This should be an exciting game with both teams represented well in the first Cotton Bowl at Cowboys Stadium. The Big 12 though has lost both previous college games played in the stadium, with Oklahoma and Texas A&M losing to BYU and Arkansas respectively. This game features two QBs that lead their team and when they play poorly usually their team follows. Both teams lost their rivalry games to end their seasons and should come out motivated to end on a good note. Ole Miss upset Texas Tech in this game last year and should be happy to be back. I expect Jevan Snead to have a big game in his final showing for Ole Miss and Dexter McCluster to be involved early and often for the Rebel offense. Without many weapons it will be hard for the Cowboys to match up to a stingy Ole Miss defense. Expect a good effort by both teams with the more talented Rebels coming out on top. Ole Miss 31 - Oklahoma State 23
West Virginia (-2.5) vs. Florida State
The Seminoles are here only because Bobby Bowden is coaching his last game and he wanted a game in Florida. It will mean a great deal to him that he is playing against the other school he is known for coaching is his illustrious career. But this year the Mountaineers are the better team and should handle everything Florida State can throw at them. QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine will be too much to handle for the Noles, while the WV defense has been steady all year and will be able to control the FSU offense without QB Christian Ponder. Give the points and hope the sentimental favorite Bobby Bowden does not end on a winning note. West Virginia 27 - Florida State 21
Capitol One Bowl (Citrus Bowl)
LSU (+2) vs. Penn State
The Bayou Bengals have had chances to have a great season but couldn't pull off the upset of Alabama and Les Miles threw away a win against Ole Miss. Now they find themselves in Orlando as underdogs to the Nittany Lions. But Penn State has not been impressive against good competition, losing to Ohio State and Iowa in Happy Valley in their only real big games of the year. Still, Joe Paterno got another 10 win season in what was thought to be a weak Big 10. Les Miles wins bowl games, as he is 4-0 as head coach at LSU, with the 14 point win over Ohio State in the National Championship game the lowest margin of victory. Having said that I think you would have to be crazy to think LSU does not have a great chance in this game. They will play swarming defense with a month to prepare for the Penn State attack and their offense should be good enough to put a few big plays together with WRs Brandon LaFell and Terrance Tolliver leading the way with QB Jordan Jefferson. Expect Les Miles to be charming his way through the postgame interviews and the LSU faithful to have a Happy New Year's in Orlando. LSU 24 - Penn State 16
Rose Bowl - The Grand Daddy of them All
Oregon (-3.5) vs. Ohio State
This will be both coaches first Rose Bowl, with Jim Tressell playing in his 7th BCS game. Oregon fought through tremendous adversity to get to this point and I'm sure will savor every minute of the pregame festivities and hoopla. But both teams will be ready come kickoff with conference and school pride on the line. Great matchups can be found all over the field, but none more so than the QB position. Terrelle Pryor was expected to do what Jeremiah Masoli has done this year with Oregon, that is be a dual threat QB that contends for the Heisman. If Pryor had a great year this team easily could have been undefeated, but as it is the offense sputtered in big games behind Tressell's conservative play calling and Pryor's mistakes and turnovers. For Oregon their only losses were to Boise State and Stanford on the road with both teams playing their best games. The Ducks outlasted Arizona and Oregon State to lay claim to the Pac 10 with amazing fourth quarters and are never out of a game with their quick-strike ability on offense and play-making defense. The game could come down to which style prevails, that of the conservative, defense and run-first Buckeyers, or the big play, hurry-up attack of the Ducks. Oregon was able to tire out most defenses with their quick pace and relentless style while Ohio State wore down teams with a nasty defense. It is a welcome sight to have a team other than USC representing the Pac 10 and to see the Buckeyes get a chance at the classic Rose Bowl after years of playing in other BCS games. But the Ducks have a lot to live up to after USC dominated the Rose Bowl for many years. I believe LaMichael James for Oregon, along with Masoli will be the difference as they have been all year and after a slow start they will get things rolling for the Ducks in a big second half to pull out the win and cover. Ohio State has lost three straight BCS games while Oregon has won two straight bowls and won their last trip to the BCS in the Fiesta Bowl in 2002. They have not won a Rose Bowl in decades though so the Oregon faithful will have much to cheer about on their way home from Pasadena. Oregon 33 - Ohio State 27
Sugar Bowl
Florida (-10) vs. Cincinnati
This is the Turmoil Bowl, with Cinci coach Brian Kelly watching from his new couch in South Bend and Florida wondering if Urban Meyer will be coaching next year. Both teams should have all the emotions flowing as they are led by strong senior classes with QBs Tim Tebow and Tony Pike the leaders. I think the game comes down to Florida being able to control the game on offense, with Cinci's defense being exposed the last month of the season. While the Bearcats have an explosive offense themselves, they won't have the same success against a nasty Gators defense wanting to make up for the SEC Championship debacle. Whereas last year Alabama lost the SEC and went on to get upset by Utah in the Sugar Bowl, I don't think the same thing happens to Florida with Tebow playing his final college game and the situation with Meyer. Also, Alabama was heartbroken after a tough, hard fought loss last year, while Florida was soundly beaten and should be motivated by the loss that ruined their dream season. Expect Tebow to go out on top and the Gator contingent to be partying on Bourbon Street deep into the night. Florida 48 - Cincinnati 27
Cotton Bowl - Saturday
Ole Miss (-3) vs. Oklahoma State
This should be an exciting game with both teams represented well in the first Cotton Bowl at Cowboys Stadium. The Big 12 though has lost both previous college games played in the stadium, with Oklahoma and Texas A&M losing to BYU and Arkansas respectively. This game features two QBs that lead their team and when they play poorly usually their team follows. Both teams lost their rivalry games to end their seasons and should come out motivated to end on a good note. Ole Miss upset Texas Tech in this game last year and should be happy to be back. I expect Jevan Snead to have a big game in his final showing for Ole Miss and Dexter McCluster to be involved early and often for the Rebel offense. Without many weapons it will be hard for the Cowboys to match up to a stingy Ole Miss defense. Expect a good effort by both teams with the more talented Rebels coming out on top. Ole Miss 31 - Oklahoma State 23
